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Continue reading →: 2026 Week 1 NFL Picks
You may have noticed a big change to my picks this year. For the first time ever, my medium confidence and higher picks (my recommended bets) will be behind a paywall. This was not an easy decision, but my wife and I are expecting a baby girl and I can…
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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams: 2026 Week 1 NFL Pick
San Francisco 49ers (0-0) vs. Los Angeles Rams (0-0) Typically, the rule of thumb in international games is to take the favorite, as the better team tends to be better prepared for playing in an abnormal situation. Favorites are 40-23-1 ATS all-time in international games, including 25-11 ATS as favorites…
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Continue reading →: New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks: 2026 Week 1 NFL Pick
New England Patriots (0-0) at Seattle Seahawks (0-0) When these two teams met in the Super Bowl at the end of last season, the game was not particularly close, with the Seahawks winning by 16. However, this time around, I expect the margin to be smaller. The Patriots now have…
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Continue reading →: 2026 NFL Season Previews
AFC East Buffalo Bills 13-4* New England Patriots 10-7* New York Jets 4-13 Miami Dolphins 2-15 AFC North Baltimore Ravens 13-4* Cincinnati Bengals 10-7* Pittsburgh Steelers 9-8 Cleveland Browns 3-14 AFC South Indianapolis Colts 10-7* Jacksonville Jaguars 9-8 Houston Texans 8-9 Tennessee Titans 4-13 AFC West Kansas City Chiefs 11-6*…
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Continue reading →: New England Patriots 2026 NFL Season Preview
Quarterback The Patriots went 14-3 last season and went to the Super Bowl, but they got a lot of criticism for their regular season strength of schedule, which was by far the easiest in the league, and for the fact that they faced teams missing key players in the AFC…
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Continue reading →: Philadelphia Eagles 2026 NFL Season Preview
Quarterback The Eagles won the Super Bowl in 2024, after a 14-3 regular season, but in 2025, they fell to 11-6 and went out in the first round of the post-season. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, they were even worse than their record suggested in 2025, finishing 16th, as…
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Continue reading →: Houston Texans 2026 NFL Season Preview
Quarterback The Texans went 12-5 last season, but there are reasons to believe they won’t win that many games again in 2026. For one, their turnover margin of +17, 2nd best in the league last season, is not sustainable year-to-year, as turnover margin is one of the least predictive metrics…
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Continue reading →: New York Giants 2026 NFL Season Preview
Quarterback The Giants have been one of the worst teams in the league in recent years, tied for the fewest wins in the league since 2017 with 44, including eight of nine seasons of 6 wins or fewer. A big part of the problem used to be that they hadn’t…
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Continue reading →: Kansas City Chiefs 2026 NFL Season Preview
Quarterback The Chiefs were the most disappointing team in the league in 2025. After three straight Super Bowl appearances, including Super Bowl victories at the end of the 2022 and 2023 seasons, the Chiefs fell all the way to 6-11 last season, leaving them far out of the post-season. The…
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