Los Angeles Chargers 2026 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2026 NFL Season Previews, Chargers

Quarterback

The Chargers had high expectations going into the 2025 season after a surprise playoff appearance in new head coach Jim Harbaugh’s first season with the team in 2024. However, disaster struck before the season even began, as talented left tackle Rashawn Slater tore his patellar tendon in training camp and missed the whole season. Things went from bad to worse when the equally talented Joe Alt, who moved from right tackle to left tackle in Slater’s absence, suffered an ankle injury and subsequent re-aggravation that limited him to just 312 snaps in 6 games.

The loss of their two tackles, arguably the best tackle duo in the league when healthy, exposed the weak interior of their offensive line and, without good backup options at tackle, the Chargers had arguably the worst offensive line in the league last season, ranking 32nd in team pass block win rate and 31st in team run block win rate. Alt and Slater weren’t the only significant injuries the Chargers dealt with last season, as they had the 6th most adjusted games lost to injury overall. Despite that, the Chargers actually still managed to win 11 games and make the playoffs, but they finished just 17th in schedule adjusted efficiency and their offensive line issues could not be overcome in the post-season, when they managed just 3 points in a first round loss to the eventual AFC Champion New England Patriots.

This year, the Chargers will get Slater and Alt back and they made moves to try to improve the interior of their offensive line as well. They also changed offensive coordinators, going from Greg Roman, whose outdated schemes held back this offense, to Mike McDaniel, former head coach of the Dolphins who was arguably the best available offensive coordinator option this off-season. Those additions and re-additions should help an offense that ranked just 24th in schedule adjusted efficiency last season. 

Quarterback Justin Herbert was basically the sole reason why this offense was not one of the worst in the league last season, playing at a borderline MVP level. His passing statistics don’t quite show his value, as he completed 66.4% of his passes for an average of 7.28 YPA, 26 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, but considering the circumstances, that was very impressive. He also added 6.00 YPC and 2 touchdowns on 83 carries, despite playing through a broken non-throwing hand for much of the second half of the season. 

Herbert has been one of the better quarterbacks in the league since being drafted 6th overall in 2020 and you could argue last season was his best performance all things considered. He hasn’t had the success in terms of wins and losses that you would expect him an elite quarterback yet, with a 52-43 regular season record and a 0-3 playoff record, but a lot of that could be blamed on his supporting cast, whether his lack of offensive line help last season, his lack of receiving help the year before that, or his lack of defensive support early in his career. Herbert isn’t a true top level quarterback, but I think he is just a tier below and, with more help around him, the Chargers have the potential to be one of the best teams in the league in 2026 if enough things go right.

One issue with Herbert is that he does tend to suffer injuries more than the average quarterback, as his playing style leads to him taking more hits than normal. He’s only missed six games in six seasons in the league, but he has been limited by injuries that he has played through on several occasions. The Chargers are hoping that improved pass protection will help keep him healthy, but Herbert also has averaged 63 carries per season in his career, so he takes a significant amount of hits even if he has good pass protection. 

Making this even more of a concern is the fact that his backup is Trey Lance, who has a mediocre 71.9 passer rating in six career starts. Most teams with high level quarterbacks would be in big trouble if they lost their quarterback for an extended period of time, but some teams can survive the loss of their quarterback for a shorter period of time because they have a good backup quarterback. The Chargers are not one of those teams, so Herbert’s health is a bigger factor for them than most teams. 

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

As I mentioned, the return of Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt will be a massive upgrade for this offense, as they are one of the best offensive tackle duos in the league when healthy. Slater, a first round pick in 2021, was one of the better left tackles in the league in 2023 and 2024 before his injury and is still only in his age 27 season, while Alt, a first round pick in 2024 who is only going into his age 23, was one of the better right tackles in the league as a rookie and was on his way to an even better season in 2025 at left tackle before getting hurt. 

There is some concern that Slater might not return to form or suffer another injury, given that he has now missed most or all of two of his five seasons in the league and given that the patellar tendon he suffered last year is one of the most difficult injuries to return to form after, but Alt doesn’t have an injury history and, at the very least, he should be able to return to form or possibly be even better, now in his third season in the league. It is possible the Chargers leave Alt at left tackle and let Slater play on the right side, which is generally easier, but it remains to be seen if they will make that move. Either way, even with some injury concerns, this is still one of the best tackle duos in the league, a big difference from last year, when Bobby Hart, Trey Pipkins, Jamaree Salyer, and Austin Deculus all made multiple starts at tackle and all struggled.

The Chargers also should be better on the interior of the offense line this season. They signed center Tyler Biadasz to a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal in free agency. He is not as good of a player as Alt or Slater, but he is a solid starter with 80 starts in the past five seasons and he should be a massive upgrade over Bradley Bozeman, who started 16 of 17 games for the Chargers at center last season, despite being one of the worst starting centers in the league.

The additions the Chargers made at guard are not as impressive and guard figures to still be a position of weakness in 2026, but it would still be hard for the Chargers to have worse guard play than last season. Right now, Trevor Penning and Cole Strange are penciled in as the starters. Both were first round picks in 2022, by the Saints and Patriots respectively, but have largely struggled throughout their careers. Penning has made 33 career starts, 26 at tackle and 7 at guard, including 3 at tackle and 1 at guard for the Chargers last season, after being acquired in a mid-season trade from New Orleans, while Strange has made 43 career starts, 41 at guard and 2 at center, with the Patriots and most recently the Dolphins. Going into their age 27 season and age 28 season respectively, they both have theoretical upside, but it is likely they will continue struggling. 

The Chargers also used a second round pick in this year’s draft on Jake Slaughter, a collegiate center who could theoretically make the switch to guard, but it is unlikely he would be a significant upgrade as a rookie. Fellow rookie, 4th round pick Travis Burke, will compete with Trey Pipkins, who has mostly struggled across 66 starts in 7 seasons in the league, for the swing tackle job. Their expected poor guard play holds back their overall grade, but compared to last year’s league worst group, this is a much improved offensive line, thanks to the returns of Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater from injury and the addition of Tyler Biadasz at center. 

Grade: B

Running Backs

In addition to their offensive line injuries, the Chargers also had their expected top-2 running backs Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris miss significant time with injury, with Hampton limited to 384 snaps in 9 games by an ankle injury and Harris having his season ended after 43 snaps in 3 games by a torn Achilles tendon. As a result, expected third string running back Kimani Vidal led the team in carries (155) and rushing yards (643). 

Vidal wasn’t bad, considering the state of the Chargers’ blocking, averaging 4.15 YPC, with 3.00 YPC after contact, a 18.7% missed tackle rate, and a 47.1% carry success rate, but Hampton was clearly better runner, averaging 4.40 YPC on 124 carries, with 3.35 YPC after contact, a 25.8% missed tackle rate, and a 46.8% carry success rate. Hampton also averaged 1.04 yards per route run as a receiver, to just 0.63 for Vidal. Hampton was the Chargers’ first round pick in 2025 and has a massive upside long-term, so, if he stays healthy, he could have a big second season in the league in 2026. 

Harris was not retained this off-season, leaving Vidal to compete with free agent addition Keaton Mitchell for the primary backup job. Mitchell was signed for 9.25 million over 2 years this off-season, which suggests they view him as having a role, and he has an impressive 6.34 YPC average in his career, but that has been on just 121 carries in three seasons in the league and the former undrafted free agent is very undersized at 5-8 191, so it is unlikely he will be more than a change of pace back, even if Hampton misses time with injury. Vidal, who showed himself to be a decent backup option last season, after only playing 169 snaps as a rookie, may be the nominal #3 back, but I would expect him to get the bulk of the carries if Hampton gets hurt. As long as Hampton is healthy though, I would expect him to be the clear feature back, both in the passing game and as a runner.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

The Chargers receiving corps last season was not bad, but it wasn’t particularly good either and it is unlikely to be significantly better this season. Ladd McConkey led the team in receiving for the second straight season, but his 66/789/6 slash line was a significant drop off from the year before, when he had a 82/1149/7 slash line, despite receiving a similar target total in 2025 (112) as he did in 2024 (106). A 2nd round pick in 2024, McConkey could see his production bounce back at least somewhat in 2026 if the offense is better overall, but, despite his yardage total as a rookie, McConkey’s skill set is more in line with a #2 receiver than a true #1 receiver.

Quentin Johnston has the skill set of a #1 receiver, but the 2023 1st round pick hasn’t put it together consistently. His slash lines of 55/711/8 and 51/735/8 over the past two seasons aren’t bad, but they are not #1 receiver numbers and he has benefitted significantly from playing with a high level quarterback. Still only in his age 25 season, Johnston still has time to make good on his potential, but it is not a guarantee that he takes a step forward in 2026.

Veteran Keenan Allen actually led the team in targets last season, but he was the most inefficient of the three options, turning just 122 targets into a 81/777/4 slash line. Ahead of what would have been his age 34 season, Allen was not retained this off-season and the majority of his routes will likely go to 2025 2nd round pick Tre Harris. Harris didn’t show much in a part-time role as a rookie, playing 554 snaps and averaging just 1.10 yards per route run, with a slash line of 30/324/1 on 43 targets, but he has the upside to take a step forward in a bigger role in his second season in the league. With Harris moving into the #3 wide receiver role, the #4 wide receiver role will go to either 4th round rookie Brenen Thompson or 2025 5th round pick KeAndre Lambert-Smith, who was underwhelming in 123 snaps as a rookie.

While Harris played sparingly and struggled when on the field, another 2025 draft pick, tight end Oronde Gadsden, made a much more immediate impact, finishing the season with a 49/664/3 slash line on 69 targets and a team leading 1.66 yards per route run average as the Chargers’ primary receiving tight end, despite only being a 5th round draft pick. A converted wide receiver, Gadsden struggled mightily as a blocker, but is a matchup problem in the passing game and will continue being a significant part of this passing game.

The Chargers signed tight end Charlie Kolar to a 3-year, 24.3 million dollar deal in free agency, but he isn’t really a threat for Gadsden’s receiving role, being signed because he is one of the best run blocking tight ends in the league. He only has 30 catches in four seasons in the league, but he might have some untapped receiving upside if given the chance, as he has averaged 1.76 yards per route run in the very limited route running opportunities he has gotten in his career. He won’t have a big enough receiving role to significantly cut into Gadsden’s target share, but the Chargers’ backup tight ends last season had 30 targets total and none of them were retained, so Kolar could have a bigger receiving role with the Chargers than he ever did with the Ravens, when he maxed out at 15 targets in a season. This is an overall underwhelming receiving corps.

Grade: C+

Edge Defenders

While the Chargers offense almost definitely will be significantly better this season, there is some concern that the Chargers’ defense might not be quite as good, after ranking 8th in schedule adjusted efficiency last season. The biggest reason for that concern is that their defensive coordinator Jesse Minter left for the Ravens’ head coaching job and. The good news is that the personnel is largely the same. In fact, the Chargers’ top-11 in terms of defensive snaps played last season and 14 of their top-15 all remain on the roster.

The Chargers did not retain edge defender Odafe Oweh, who did not rank in the top-15 in terms of snaps played because he was acquired mid-season via trade, but still managed to finish second on the team with 7.5 sacks and third with 35 total pressures. Oweh will be missed, despite his relatively limited playing time last season, but the good news is the Chargers used their first round pick on edge defender Akheem Mesidor, who has a good chance to at least adequately replace Oweh’s production. 

Mesidor’s addition is especially needed because Khalil Mack, who still played at a high level last season, is now going into his age 35 season. Mack is not what he was in his prime, but the future Hall of Famer still had 5.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 14.8% pressure rate in 12 games last season, while playing at a high level against the run. He may decline in 2026, perhaps significantly so, which would hurt this defense significantly, but he could also remain an above average player for another season.

Tuli Tuipulotu was the Chargers’ top edge defender last season and should remain their top edge defender in 2026, still only in his age 24 season. Tuipulotu ranked 6th in the league with 13 sacks last season and added 13 hits and a 16.7% pressure rate. He is a one-year wonder in terms of producing at that level, averaging 6.5 sacks, 9.5 hits, and a 10.8% pressure rate in his first two seasons in the league in 2023 and 2024, but the former 2nd round pick likely has permanently turned a corner and he seems as likely to continue improving even further as he does to regress to his pre-2025 form. 

Tuipulotu, Mesidor, and Mack figure to play the lion’s share of the edge defender snaps for the Chargers in 2026, but, if one of them misses time with injury, an expanded role would likely go to Bud Dupree, who played 392 snaps last season. Dupree is largely a liability though, as his last season above 10% pressure was in 2020 and he is now going into his age 33 season. Dupree will remain their #4 edge defender due to lack of a better option, but the Chargers at least have a strong top-3 at the position.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

The one player who finished in the top-15 in snaps played on the Chargers’ defense last season who is no longer with the team is interior defender Da’Shawn Hand, but he still only played 451 snaps and was marginal at best, so he won’t be hard to replace. Veteran Dalvin Tomlinson was signed in free agency to take Hand’s spot in the defensive tackle rotation, which includes holdovers Teair Tart, Jamaree Caldwell, and Justin Eboigbe.

Tart was the best of the bunch, excelling against the run and adding a 5.7% pressure rate as a pass rusher, while playing 499 snaps total. That is largely in line with how he has played in recent years and, with Tart still being relatively young, in his age 29 season in 2026, I would expect more of the same from him in 2025. Caldwell was a similar player, playing at his best against the run and adding a 5.2% pressure rate, while playing 487 total snaps, most among Chargers interior defenders. Tart was a little better, both as a run defender and pass rusher, but Caldwell was only a 3rd round rookie and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take a step forward in year two in 2026.

Eboigbe was the best pass rusher of the bunch, totaling 6 sacks, 4 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate, but he struggled against the run. Last season was the first significant action of Eboigbe’s career, as the 2024 4th round pick played just 26 snaps as a rookie. It is possible he gets better in 2026, but, at the very least, he should remain a useful pass rusher as part of their defensive tackle rotation. Tomlinson, meanwhile, is likely to be the worst of the bunch. 

Tomlinson was a consistently above average interior defender in his prime, but he has declined significantly in each of the past two seasons, to the point where he was a liability against the run and a pass rusher last season (4.5% pressure rate) and, now going into his age 32 season, it is unlikely he bounces back. It is possible he is pushed for playing time down the stretch by 5th round rookie Nick Barrett. This is not a bad position group, but it is not a particularly good one either.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

At linebacker, the Chargers bring back all their key players from a year ago. Daiyan Henley played an every down role (930 snaps in 16 games) and was a solid, if unspectacular player. It was a slight step back from his above average performance in 2024, his first year in an every down role after playing sparingly as a rookie in 2023, but he could easily bounce back in 2026 and, even if he doesn’t, the former 3rd round pick should remain a solid every starter at the very least.

Troy Dye (473 snaps) and Denzel Perryman (298 snaps) split snaps next to Perryman. Neither one was particularly good and both are getting up there in age, with Dye going into his age 30 season and Perryman going into his age 34 season, so I wouldn’t expect more than decent play at best from either one in 2026. A younger option the Chargers have is Junior Colston, a 3rd round pick in 2024, but he struggled mightily across 218 snaps as a rookie, before missing all of last season due to a shoulder injury, so it seems unlikely he would be an upgrade over Dye or Perryman if he were to play a significant role. Henley elevates the overall grade for this position group, but this is an average at best position group, given their other linebacker options.

Grade: B

Secondary

The Chargers do mask their lack of linebacker depth by frequently using three or four safeties on the field at the same time. Derwin James is by far the best of the bunch and one of the best safeties in the entire NFL. He unsurprisingly plays an every down role, frequently moving around the formation to both linebacker and nickel cornerback. His age is a minor concern, going into his age 30 season, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and, even if he does decline somewhat in 2026, he should still remain a well above average safety.

Elijah Molden finished second on the team in snaps played by a safety with 538 in 12 games. He is a capable starter, but injuries are consistently a concern for him, as he has missed time with injury in all five seasons in the league, while never playing more than 761 snaps in a season. Veteran Tony Jefferson was third on the team with 492 snaps played last season. He was also a capable, if unspectacular player, but he is now going into his age 34 season and hasn’t been an every down player since 2018, so he should be the third safety at best.

Molden and Jefferson will likely face competition for playing time from 2025 5th round pick RJ Mickens, who flashed potential across 328 snaps as a rookie, and Genesis Smith, a 4th round pick in this year’s draft who was a good value and could contribute in a part-time role immediately. The Chargers figure to mix and match and frequently play 3-4 safeties at the same time in a position group that you could argue legitimately goes five deep if everything goes right.

The Chargers’ safety depth helps mask the Chargers’ lack of cornerback depth too, but the Chargers do at least have three cornerback options that are mostly capable. Tarheeb Still is the best of the bunch and the Chargers’ nominal #1 cornerback. Despite only being a 5th round pick in 2025, Still has started 25 of the 29 games he has played in over the past two seasons and has generally been a solid cornerback, even if he is not a true #1. 

Donte Jackson and Cam Hart are the Chargers’ other cornerback options. Jackson has made 106 starts in 112 games in eight seasons in the league and has generally been a capable cornerback starter, though his age is becoming a concern, going into his age 31 season. Cam Hart, meanwhile, was also a 5th round pick in 2024 and has provided mostly mediocre play across 1,100 snaps in two seasons in the league. The Chargers’ safeties elevate the overall position grade of their secondary, most notably led by Derwin James, who is one of the best safeties in the league.

Grade: B+

Kicker

Chargers kicker Cameron Dicker entered the league as an undrafted free agent in 2022 and leads the league in points above expected at the kicker position since entering the league, with a total of 31.7 points added in those four seasons. He is also very consistent, surpassing 0.3 points per game added in all four seasons. Between his reliability and his ability to hit from deep, Dicker is likely to lead to the Chargers winning at least one game that they would not have otherwise won with an average kicker in 2026.

Grade: A

Conclusion

The Chargers’ offense should be much improved this season, due to the returns of tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, likely better health and a potential breakout year from running back Omarion Hampton, the addition of center Tyler Biadasz, and the addition of offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel. Their defense could be worse, due to the loss of defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, the loss of Odafe Oweh, and a pair of stars, Khalil Mack and Derwin James, being on the wrong side of 30, but, overall, I would expect this team to be better this year than last year. They might not be true Super Bowl contenders, but they should at least be a playoff team and they should be more competitive once they get to the playoffs than they were a year ago.

Prediction: 11-6, 2nd in AFC West

Detroit Lions 2026 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2026 NFL Season Previews, Lions

Quarterback

The Lions were one of the most disappointing teams in the league in 2025, going from a 15-2 record and the NFC’s #1 seed the prior year to a 9-8 record and missing the playoffs completely. The Lions were not as good as they were in 2024, when they ranked second in the NFL in schedule adjusted efficiency at +7.87, but they were still a lot better than their record suggests, finishing 5th at +4.17. The reason their record was not as good as their schedule adjusted efficiency would suggest is they struggled in close games, winning five games by 14 points or more, tied for 4th most in the NFL, but going just 2-5 in one-score games.

That wasn’t the only bad luck the Lions had last season, as they also had the second most adjusted games lost to injury in the league. The Lions consistently have more injuries than average, but I wouldn’t expect them to have quite as bad of injury luck in 2026 as they had in 2025 and they should be better in close games too. I don’t expect this team to be as good in 2026 as they were in 2024, but they should win more games than 2025, perhaps significantly more, and should be considered not just a playoff team, but a Super Bowl contender.

Quarterback Jared Goff is not the biggest reason the Lions should be considered a Super Bowl contender, but he has shown the ability to produce at a high level with a strong supporting cast. He declined in terms of completion percentage (72.4% to 68.0%), YPA (8.59 to 7.90), and touchdowns (37 to 34) from 2024 to 2025, but his 105.5 passer rating still ranked third in the NFL last season. With a similar caliber supporting cast around him on offense this season, I would expect a similar level of production in 2026.

Backup quarterback is a position of concern, as that position would currently go to Teddy Bridgewater, who is going into his age 34 season and hasn’t made a start since 2022. Fortunately, Goff is one of the more durable quarterbacks in the league, missing time with injury in just two of ten seasons in the league, while making all 68 possible starts over the past four seasons. Goff is going into his age 32 season, but pocket passers with minimal injury history usually age pretty well, so I wouldn’t expect him to drop off significantly any time soon. 

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The biggest reason this offense is no longer as good as they were in 2024 is their offensive line, which was arguably the best in the league that season. Now just two years later, four of the five starters from that offensive line are no longer with the team. However, the situation is not as bad as that sounds, for a few reasons. For one, that one offensive lineman who remains, Penei Sewell, is arguably the best offensive lineman in the league and is still very much in his prime in his age 26 season.

On top of that, two of the four offensive linemen who are no longer with the team, Taylor Decker and Kevin Zeitler, were replaced by high draft picks, guard Tate Ratledge, who was an above average starter as a second round rookie in 2025, and tackle Blake Miller, who the Lions selected in the first round in this year’s draft. A third offensive lineman who is no longer with the team, Graham Glasgow, was marginal at best in 2024 and isn’t really missed. He has been replaced by Christian Mahogany, a 2024 6th round pick who was unspectacular, but who also wasn’t really a significant downgrade from Glasgow.

The biggest loss from their 2024 offensive line is center Frank Ragnow, who was arguably the best center in the league before surprisingly retiring last off-season. In his absence, Glasgow moved to center, where he struggled. Glasgow was not retained this off-season and instead the Lions will start free agent addition Cade Mays. Mays is an unspectacular starter and an obvious downgrade from Ragnow, but it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Glasgow. Mahogany and Rutledge will remain the starters at guard for the second straight year and they’re both young enough that they could take a step forward in 2025, especially Ratledge, who entered the league with a high upside. 

At tackle, the Lions will likely move Sewell from right tackle to left tackle to replace Decker and then plug in the rookie Miller at right tackle. Decker was an above average left tackle in his prime, but his play slipped in 2025, so Miller replacing him in the starting lineup shouldn’t be a downgrade and he could possibly be an upgrade if the rookie is ahead of schedule. Sewell, meanwhile, is learning a new position on the left side and might not be as good there as he has been at right tackle, but it also is usually a smart idea to put your best offensive lineman at left tackle and, even if he isn’t as good as he has been at right tackle, he could still be one of the best left tackles in the league.

If Miller isn’t ready to start week one, the right tackle job would go to either Giovanni Manu, a 2024 4th round pick who has played 69 career snaps, or Larry Borom, a veteran with 38 career starts in five seasons in the league who has mostly struggled when he has been a starter. Miller should be considered the heavy favorite to start week one. On the interior, the top reserve is likely to be Juice Scruggs, a bust of a 2023 second round pick by the Texans who the Lions took a flier on this off-season. This offensive line isn’t what it was a couple years ago, but this is still a talented group who is significantly elevated by Penei Sewell.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Another player the Lions lost this off-season is running back David Montgomery, who was traded to the Texans for some mid-round draft picks and backup offensive lineman Juice Scruggs in a cost savings move. Montgomery was arguably the best #2 running back in the league last season, rushing for 4.53 YPC and 8 touchdowns on 158 carries last season, but the Lions are well-equipped to be able to deal with Montgomery’s absence, as they will give a bigger role to lead back Jahmyr Gibbs, who has proven he deserves it, while also adding Isiah Pacheco to be the new #2 running back.

Gibbs has averaged 5.34 YPC in three seasons in the league and, while his carry totals of 250 and 243 over the past two seasons have ranked 11th in the league in each of the past two seasons, he has definitely proven he deserves a bigger role. He might not be quite as efficient in an expanded role, but he has the upside to lead the league in rushing, still only in his age 24 season. He also should remain heavily involved in the passing game, after slash lines of 52/517/4 and 77/616/5 over the past two seasons respectively, on an average of 1.67 yards per route run. 

Pacheco will be more of a true #2 running back than the 1b to Gibbs’ 1a that Montgomery was, but Pacheco will still be involved in a change of pace role. Only a 7th round pick in 2022, Pacheco was impressive in his first two seasons in the league, rushing for 4.71 YPC on 375 carries in 2022 and 2023 combined, but he suffered a broken leg early in 2024 and has not been the same since, rushing for 3.84 YPC on 201 carries in 2024 and 2025 combined. Another year removed from the injury, Pacheco could easily be better in 2026, but it is very possible he never returns to his old form. Still, he could easily be a solid #2 running back on early downs. With an elite feature back in Gibbs and Pacheco as the backup, this is a great backfield.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

The biggest injury the Lions had on offense last season was tight end Sam LaPorta’s back injury, which cost him the final eight games of the season. LaPorta finished 4th among tight ends with 2.00 yards per route run and, aside from him, no other Lions tight end averaged more than 0.86 yards per route run, so it is not surprising that the Lions went from averaging 6.05 yards per play and a 32.74% first down rate in nine games with him to 5.88 yards per play and a 31.27% first down rate in the eight games he missed. 

LaPorta’s back injury was serious and could limit him into 2026, but I would still expect him to contribute more to the Lions offense this season than he did last season. His 2.00 yards per route run average last season was the highest of his 3-year career, but it isn’t significantly higher than his career average of 1.75 yards per route run and, only in his age 25 season in 2026, it wouldn’t be a surprise if LaPorta’s best football was still ahead of him if he can stay healthy.

When LaPorta is healthy, the Lions have one of the best top-3 in the receiving corps of any team in the league. Their top-2 wide receivers, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, have surpassed 1,000 yards receiving in each of the past two seasons, making them the only wide receiver duo in the league to do so. St. Brown has actually surpassed the 1,000 yard mark in four straight seasons, including three straight seasons above 1,200 yards receiving, and, overall, he has averaged 2.45 yards per route run over the past four seasons combined. Williams, meanwhile, has posted slash lines of 58/1001/7 and 65/1117/7 on a combined 1.96 yards per route run over the past two seasons. Only in their age 27 season and age 25 season respectively, St. Brown and Williams should continue producing at similar levels in 2026.

With St. Brown, Williams, and LaPorta as their top-3 receivers and Jahmyr Gibbs featured prominently in the passing game out of the backfield, there aren’t a lot of targets left for anyone else. Isaac TeSlaa, a 2025 3rd round pick, is the favorite to be the #3 receiver, after splitting that role with departed veteran Kalif Raymond last season. Raymond was the more effective of the two, averaging 1.33 yards per route run to 0.81 for TeSlaa, but TeSlaa has a higher upside. He would need at least an injury ahead of him on the depth chart to have a meaningful role in this passing game, but he is not bad insurance to have. His primary competitors for the #3 receiver job are veteran free agent addition Greg Dortch, a slot specialist with a career 1.17 yards per route run average, and 5th round rookie Kendrick Law. 

Behind LaPorta at tight end, the Lions have Brock Wright, a blocking specialist with a career 0.91 yards per route run average, who was their primary tight end in LaPorta’s absence last season, and veteran free agent addition Tyler Conklin, who was likely brought in to provide insurance as a receiver in case LaPorta misses more time. Conklin is a better receiver than Wright, but largely by default, as his career 1.12 yards per route run average is still a steep drop off from what the Lions would likely get from LaPorta if he is healthy. Conklin is also going into his age 31 season, so his best days could easily be behind him at this point. A lack of depth is a bit of a concern, but this still has the potential to be one of the best receiving corps in the league if LaPorta can be relatively close to his best.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

While the Lions’ offense was definitely the better of the two sides of the ball, ranking 7th in schedule adjusted efficiency, their defense wasn’t bad, ranking 16th in schedule adjusted efficiency. That is despite the fact that they had many more injuries on that side of the ball, leading the league in adjusted games lost to injury on defense. One key player who missed significant time was interior defender Alim McNeill, who missed seven games, including the first six games of the season recovering from a torn ACL suffered late in 2025. 

McNeill was also not his usual self even when on the field, dropping from 8.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate in 27 games between 2023 and 2024 to 1 sack, 1 hit, and a 7.2% pressure rate in 10 games in 2025, while also struggling against the run. McNeill is only going into his age 26 season in 2026 though, so he is an obvious bounce back candidate another year removed from his injury, which would be a big boost to this defense.

On top of McNeill missing time and being limited upon his return, the Lions were also without Levi Onwuzurike for the whole season due to a torn ACL suffered in the off-season. Onwuzurike excelled as a situational pass rusher in 2023 and 2024, with 2.5 sacks, 15 hits, and a 10.9% pressure rate in 26 games, but he has a pretty significant injury history, also missing all of 2022 with injury and it is very possible he misses more time in 2026 and/or is not the same in his first year back from a major injury. Still, he should be able to at least give them something in a situational role, which is more than he gave them last year. 

With McNeill and Onwuzurike missing significant time last season, DJ Reader (583 snaps), Tyleik Williams (446 snaps), and Roy Lopez (425 snaps) all played significant roles and all three were solid rotational players. Reader and Lopez were not retained this off-season, but Williams was a first round pick in 2025 and is likely ready for a bigger role. With Onwuzurike likely to return as a rotational reserve, Williams figures to start next to McNeill. He was at least average as both a run stopper and pass rusher (8.4% pressure rate) as a rookie and has the upside to take a big step forward in year two. Even if he doesn’t, he should at least be a capable starter.

Aside from Onwuzurike, the Lions depth at the interior defender position is very questionable, with Mehki Wingo, a 2024 6th round pick who has played 236 mediocre snaps in his career, and Skyler Gill-Howard, a 6th round rookie, expect to compete for deep reserve roles, which would be an even bigger concern if one of their top-3 misses time with injury. However, with McNeill and Onwuzurike likely to be healthier and Williams potentially improving significantly in his second season in the league, this group could easily be better in 2026 than it was in 2025 if enough things go right.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

Edge defender Aidan Hutchinson was the Lions’ best defensive player last season, performing among the best players in the league at his position both as a run defender and a pass rusher, with 14.5 sacks, 21 hits, and a 16.1% pressure rate. Almost never coming off the field, Hutchinson led all edge defenders with 1,005 snaps played and 100 total pressures. Hutchinson missed most of the 2024 season with a broken leg, but has otherwise never missed a game, while consistently playing a high snap count and performing at a high level. In four seasons in the league, the 2022 2nd overall pick has played 57.6 snaps per game, while totaling 43 sacks, 59 hits, and a 14.9% pressure rate in 56 career games. Still very much in his prime in his age 26 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2026.

The rest of the Lions’ edge defender group is a concern though. Al-Quadin Muhammad played pretty well as the primary edge defender opposite Hutchinson last season, but he was not retained this off-season. Instead, the Lions may be counting on second round rookie Derrick Moore as the primary edge defender opposite Hutchinson, a role that could prove to be too much for him in year two. His primary competition for playing time is veteran free agent addition DJ Wonnum, who has played 659 snaps per season in six seasons in the league, but has mostly struggled. In total, he has 30 sacks, 26 hits, and a 8.4% pressure rate in 86 career games and he isn’t any better as a run defender. 

The Lions also took a flyer on former first round pick bust Payton Turner, who has played just 675 career snaps in five seasons in the league, and they drafted Tyre West in the 7th round. They will compete for deep reserve roles with Tyler Lacy, who joins Hutchinson as the only notable holdover edge defender from last season, when he struggled across 237 snaps, particularly struggling as a pass rusher (5.3% rate). A 4th round pick in 2023, Lacy has mostly struggled across 722 career snaps. Hutchinson elevates this position group significantly by himself, but the rest of the group is a concern.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

Linebacker Jack Campbell is another very talented player on this defense. A first round pick in 2023, Campbell only had a decent rookie year, but he broke out as an above average every down player in his second season in the league and then improved further in his third season in the league in 2025, playing at an All-Pro level. Still only in his age 26 season, Campbell is likely to continue playing at a high level for years to come, even if he doesn’t become a perennial All-Pro. 

Alex Anzalone ranked second among Lions linebackers with 1,003 snaps played last season, played at a decent level, and was not retained this off-season, but the Lions are pretty well-equipped to deal with his absence. Derrick Barnes was the third linebacker last season, but the Lions used three linebacker sets more than any team in the league, so that was close to an every down role (939 snaps), a role he played decently in. That was a career high in snaps for him, but he was also decent across 704 snaps in 2023 and I think he will be an adequate replacement for Anzalone.

Meanwhile, Malcolm Rodriguez, who missed most of last season recovering from a torn ACL, is set to be the third linebacker. He has flashed some potential in limited action (1,121 career snaps in four seasons in the league) and the Lions may use fewer three linebacker sets to take some of the pressure off of him. It is also possible Rodriguez faces competition from 4th round rookie Jimmy Rolder and veteran free agent addition Damone Clark, a 2022 5th round pick who was mediocre across snap counts of 398 and 782 in his first two seasons in the league and has subsequently been limited to just 265 total snaps over the past two seasons combined. Given the alternates, Rodriguez is probably the heavy favorite for the job. This is an above average linebacking corps whose overall grade is significantly elevated by Jack Campbell.

Grade: A-

Secondary

The Lions’ secondary was their most injury plagued unit last season. DJ Reed, signed as a free agent to be their #1 cornerback, but he missed six games due to injury and did not seem to be the same upon his return. Reed is an above average cornerback when healthy and he had only missed eight games over the previous four seasons, so he has bounce back potential, but he is going into his age 30 season in 2026, which is a minor concern. However, I do expect him to give the Lions more this season than he did in his injury plagued 2025 campaign. 

Terrion Arnold, a first round pick by the Lions in 2024, also missed significant time due to injury, playing just 312 snaps in 8 games. Arnold struggled as a rookie, but he was better in 2025 when on the field and still has a lot of upside, only going into his age 23 season. He has been overall disappointing thus far in his career and there is no guarantee he turns it around, but it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he was at least a decent starter in 2026. 

With Reed and Arnold missing significant time last season, Amik Robertson led all Lions cornerbacks in snaps played with 842 and he was one of the worst starting cornerbacks in the league. He wasn’t retained this off-season though, which is addition by subtraction, and he was replaced by free agent addition Roger McCreary, who the Lions surprisingly were able to sign to one-year deal for barely more than the league minimum. 

A second round pick in 2022, McCreary started 38 of the 55 games he played for the Titans in three and a half seasons in the team and was a capable if unspectacular starter, but the rebuilding Titans opted to trade him during the middle of last season to the Rams, who viewed him as an insurance policy more than anything, leading to him playing just 39 snaps with the team, which could have contributed to his depressed free agent market. He should prove to be a great value and a significant upgrade over Amik Robertson. At the very least, he should be one of the Lions’ top-3 cornerbacks, even if Reed and Arnold are both healthy.

Expected to be the #4 cornerback at best going into last season, veteran Rock Ya-Sin ended up playing 611 snaps for the Lions last season due to the injuries to Reed and Arnold, after playing just 342 snaps in 2023 and 2024 combined with the Ravens and 49ers. Ya-Sin unsurprisingly struggled, but he played well enough for the Lions to bring him back as a depth option. Along with Ya-Sin, the Lions also have 5th round rookie Keith Abney, who was a great value, and 2024 2nd round pick Ennis Rakestraw, who has played just 46 snaps in his career due to injury, but who could still have significant upside if he can stay healthy, only going into his age 24 season.

At safety, Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph are one of the best safety duos in the league when healthy, but were limited to 12 games and 6 games respectively last season due to injury. Branch’s injury was a torn achilles that was suffered late enough in the season that it could easily cost him the start of the 2026 season and/or limit him upon his return, but he has been an above average safety since entering the league as a 2nd round pick in 2023 and, even at less than his best, he should still be an asset for this defense when he returns. Joseph, meanwhile, should be past his knee injury by the start of the 2026 season and had only missed 2 games with injury prior to last season, so he isn’t injury prone. Only in their age 25 and age 26 seasons respectively, they still have the potential to be one of the best safety duos in the league if they are healthy.

The Lions also have good reserve options at safety. Thomas Harper, who played 482 snaps as an injury fill-in last season, was decent, after the 2024 undrafted free agent also flashed some potential across 191 snaps as a rookie. Veteran Avonte Maddox was also decent as an injury fill-in last season across 342 snaps and, while he is a low upside option in his age 30 season, he also has plenty of experience, starting 44 of 95 games played in eight seasons in the league, while averaging 448 snaps per season. The Lions also further added to their depth this off-season by signing Chuck Clark, who is also low upside and on the wrong side of 30, but has started 80 of 123 games played in nine seasons in the league, while averaging 598 snaps per season. There are still injury concerns in this secondary, but I would expect them to be healthier than they were a year ago and, even if they aren’t, they have better depth this time around.

Grade: B+

Kicker

Jake Bates had an impressive rookie season in 2024, ranking 11th in the league with 5.97 points added above expected, but he was far less effective in 2025, dropping from a field goal percentage of 89.7% to 79.4% and costing the Lions 5.01 points compared to an average kicker. He has the potential to bounce back in 2026, but a lot of kickers prove to be inconsistent and Bates could easily be an inconsistent player throughout his career.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Lions had a disappointing season in 2025, but they played a lot better than their 9-8 final record suggested, finishing 5th in schedule adjusted efficiency. That was despite having among the most injuries in the league, especially on defense. If they have fewer injuries and have better luck in close games, the Lions could easily see a big jump in wins in 2026 and they still have overall one of the most talented rosters in the league. I wouldn’t expect them to match their 15-2 season from 2024, but they should be on the short list for contenders in the NFC.

Prediction: 13-4, 1st in NFC North

Jacksonville Jaguars 2026 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2026 NFL Season Previews, Jaguars

Quarterback

The Jaguars started the 2025 season 4-1, but they had a league leading +10 turnover margin in those games, which is very unpredictive on a week-to-week basis, so their hot start looked like a fluke. Sure enough, the Jaguars saw their turnover luck stop and had a +0 turnover margin in their next four games, in which they went 1-3, with their only win coming by one point in overtime to the league worst Raiders, making their early season hot start look like the fluke that their early turnover luck suggested it was. However, the Jaguars then won their final eight games of the season from that point on and, more importantly, they did that despite only a +3 turnover margin in those games.

The reasons for the Jaguars second half turnaround are complex, but there were some obvious culprits. For one, they got linebacker Devin Lloyd and tight end Brenton Strange back from injury. Strange missed five games in the middle of the season, including all four games in their mid-season 1-3 stretch. In fact, the Jaguars went 11-1 in games in which Strange played last season. Likewise, Lloyd missed two of the four games during the Jaguars’ mid-season 1-3 stretch and the Jaguars were 12-3 when he played last season.

The Jaguars also discovered hidden gems on their roster down the stretch. On defense, safety Antonio Johnson played 583 snaps in the Jaguars’ final eleven games of the season, as opposed to 77 snaps in the first six games of the season, while cornerback Jarrian Jones played 440 snaps in the Jaguars’ final ten games, as opposed to 77 in their first seven games. Those ended up being their two best defensive backs last season

On offense, Cole Van Lanen started the final eleven games of the season and was solid, after playing just 25 snaps in the first six games of the season. Parker Washington was the Jaguars’ leading receiver and he played 490 snaps in the final eleven games of the season, as opposed to 182 in the first six games. Additionally, the Jaguars traded for wide receiver Jakobi Meyers at the trade deadline and proceeded to go 8-1 after acquiring him. Between Johnson, Jones, Van Lanen, Washington, Meyers, Strange, and Lloyd, seven of the Jaguars’ most important players in the second half of the season all either missed time with injury, weren’t on the roster, or were reserves in the first half of the season.

On top of all of this, the Jaguars whole roster just seemed to play better down the stretch in the first year of a new, young, but talented coaching staff under Liam Coen. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence exemplified this, going from a 79.8 QB rating in the first eleven games of the season to a 110.7 QB rating and in the final six games of the season. Lawrence benefitted from an improved supporting cast, but he also elevated his own level of play significantly down the stretch. The Jaguars fell just short in the first round of the post-season to the Buffalo Bills in a game that could have gone either way, but that doesn’t really take away from their strong finish to the season because even being close with the Bills in the playoffs seemed improbable halfway through the season.

All of that would seem to point to the Jaguars continuing their impressive play from the second half of last season into this season, but there are reasons for concern. For one, the Jaguars lost top linebacker Devin Lloyd and top running back Travis Etienne in free agency and didn’t really replace either of them. Making matters worse, they did not have their first round pick this year due to their trade up for Travis Hunter last year and then they proceeded to use their second round pick to reach for a blocking tight end in Nate Boerkircher who is unlikely to make a significant impact in year one.

On top of that, there is concern that at least some of the players who were surprisingly good last year could prove to be a fluke and regress. The most important player who needs to continue playing like he did down the stretch last season is quarterback Trevor Lawrence. A lot of people gave up on Trevor Lawrence after a down 2024 season, but his 2025 campaign didn’t come out of nowhere. Between the second half of the 2022 season and the first two thirds of the 2023 season before he got hurt, Lawrence a 21-game stretch across 2022 and 2023 where he completed 68.7% of his passes for an average of 7.47 YPA, 29 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, while leading the Jaguars to a 15-6 record. 

Given that impressive stretch and the fact that he was the former #1 overall pick and that he was still young, it wasn’t surprising to see Lawrence have success in 2025, when he completed 60.9% of his passes for an average of 7.16 YPA, 29 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, including 63.0% completion, 8.33 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 1 interceptions in the final six games of the season. He doesn’t have the most consistent history, but the talent has always been there, he is still only going into his age 27 season, and he finally has a good coaching staff, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him have a similar year in 2026, perhaps an even better season if he continues improving and proves that his impressive play in a limited sample size down the stretch last season was not a fluke.

Lawrence will be backed up by Nick Mullens for the second straight year. In 20 career starts in eight seasons in the league, Mullens has completed 66.0% of his passes for an average of 7.98 YPA, which are both impressive numbers for backup quarterback, but he is also erratic with the ball, throwing 31 interceptions to 34 touchdowns, which is why he has never been looked at as a starting option, despite his ability to consistently pick up big gains through the air. Still, he’s overall a decent backup option, though obviously the Jaguars will be hoping he doesn’t have to see the field for an extended period of time this season.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

As I mentioned, the Jaguars lost running back Travis Etienne. As their feature back, Etienne rushed for 1,107 yards and 7 touchdowns on 260 carries (4.26 YPC) last season, while totaling a 36/292/6 slash line on 1.05 yards per route run. In his absence, the Jaguars will give a bigger role to 2025 4th round pick Bhayshul Tuten, who only averaged 3.70 yards per carry on 83 carries as a rookie, but who ranked 6th among running backs in carry success rate (57.8%) and 15th among running backs in elusive rating, averaging 3.22 yards per carry after contact and breaking tackles at a 21.7% rate. All three of those metrics were better than Etienne, who averaged 3.04 yards per carry after contact, broke tackles at a 17.7% rate, and had a 46.9% carry success rate. 

Tuten’s biggest issue is his longest run was 15 yards and he struggled as a receiver as well, averaging 0.90 yards per route run. He also is a projection to a larger role and, overall, I would expect him to be less effective than Etienne in an expanded role, but he does at least have upside. He will compete for carries with free agent addition Chris Rodriguez, who has a career 4.65 YPC average with 3.59 yards per carry after contact and 24.7% missed tackle rate. 

Rodriguez has only had 198 carries in three seasons in the league and does not contribute in passing situations, with a career 0.40 yards per route run average, but he at least has upside as an early down option. The Jaguars also have 2025 6th round pick LeQuint Allen, who played 259 snaps as a rookie, primarily in pass situations, but struggled with just 0.37 yards per route run. This is overall an underwhelming backfield, even if they do have some upside. They are likely to miss free agent departure Travis Etienne.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

As I mentioned, Parker Washington surprisingly led this team in receiving. He finished with a 58/847/5 slash line and was even more impressive than that suggests because he didn’t play much early in the season. He had a 41/640/4 slash line in his final nine games of the season, which extrapolates to a 77/1209/8 slash line across 17 games, and his 2.06 yards per route run average on the season ranked 17th among eligible wide receivers. That performance kind of came out of nowhere, as Washington averaged just 0.93 yards per route run across his first two seasons in the league in 2023 and 2024 and it’s not like he came into the league as a hyped prospect either, originally selected in the 6th round. 

Washington is still only going into his age 24 season and could easily have permanently turned a corner. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see his yards per route run average regress at least somewhat in 2026, but he could still be overall more productive because he figures to have a significant role in the offense from the start of the season this time around, instead of starting the year as the #4 receiver like he did last season.

The Jaguars’ top-2 receivers last season were supposed to be Brian Thomas, a 2024 1st round pick who impressed with a 87/1282/10 slash line and 2.45 yards per route run as a rookie, and Travis Hunter, who the Jaguars traded up to select #2 overall in the 2025 draft. However, Hunter was limited to a 28/298/1 slash line in 7 games by injury as a rookie (1.32 yards per route run), while Thomas also missed three games with injury and did not seem like himself even when on the field, dropping significantly to a 48/707/2 slash line in 14 games with a 1.50 yards per route run average. 

Instead, it was Parker Washington, tight end Brenton Strange, and mid-season trade acquisition Jakobi Meyers who were probably their most valuable pass catchers. Strange had just a 46/540/3 slash line, but that was mostly because he was limited to 12 games by injury. If extrapolated over 17 games, his slash line would have been 65/765/4 and his 1.70 yards per route run average ranked 10th among eligible tight ends. Strange, a 2nd round pick in 2023, also had a 29/275/2 slash line in 8 games as the primary receiving tight end in 2024 (62/584/4 over 17 games), so his 2025 performance didn’t come out of nowhere. Only in his age 26 season, Strange could easily have a career best year in 2026 if he can stay healthy.

Meyers, meanwhile, had a 42/483/3 slash line in 9 games with the Jaguars, which extrapolates to a 79/912/6 slash line over 17 games. That is largely in line with the 82/936/4 slash line per 17 games he has averaged over the past six seasons and his 1.71 yards per route run with the Jaguars last season was largely in line with his career average of 1.70 yards per route run. Meyers is heading into his age 30 season, which is a minor concern, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and, more likely than not, I would expect him to have a season in line with his career averages in 2026.

Travis Hunter is expected to primarily play cornerback this season and will likely only play wide receiver situationally, which makes sense because they have a bigger need at cornerback than wide receiver. However, Brian Thomas will still have a big role in the passing game and has obvious bounce back potential, based on how productive he was as a rookie and how talented the former first round pick is when he is at his best. 

The Jaguars reportedly had opportunities to trade Thomas for a big return this off-season, but did not take any of them, suggesting they still view him as a big part of this offense. He probably won’t match his rookie year production even if he is at his best, given how many other options the Jaguars have in the passing game now compared to 2024, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if Thomas ended up being the most productive of the bunch. 

Aside from Hunter, who I would expect to be the #4 receiver, the Jaguars depth options include second round rookie Nate Boerkircher, a blocking specialist who is unlikely to contribute significantly in the passing game even if Strange misses time, as well as Josh Cameron and CJ Williams, a pair of 6th round rookies at wide receiver. The Jaguars might not have a true #1 option in the passing game, but they have a talented top-4 of Brian Thomas, Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers, and Brenton Strange and overall this is an above average group.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

As I mentioned, the emergence of Cole Van Lanen was a big part of the reason why the Jaguars’ offense was significantly better down the stretch in 2025. Van Lanen entered last season with just 3 career starts in 4 seasons in the league since being selected in the 6th round in 2021. He first entered the Jaguars’ starting lineup at left guard in week 9 and he ended up making starts at both guard and both tackle spots. Regardless of where he lined up, he was the Jaguars’ best offensive lineman last season and a big boost for an offensive line that was otherwise underwhelming. 

Van Lanen is a complete one-year wonder though and could easily regress. He is also not locked into any one starting spot on the offensive line, though I would imagine, between how well he played last season and the fact that the Jaguars rewarded him with a 3-year, 51 million dollar extension, that Van Lanen will likely start somewhere on this offensive line in 2026, even if he is unlikely to be as good as he was a year ago. The most likely spot where Van Lanen will start is left tackle. If he doesn’t start at left tackle, the job will likely go to Walker Little who has been a capable, but unspectacular starter across 33 starts over the past three seasons, 28 of which came at left tackle and 5 of which came at guard. 

Whichever of Little or Van Lanen does not start at left tackle will be a candidate to start at guard, where Ezra Cleveland and Patrick Mekari were the primary starters last season. Cleveland is the better of the two, making 76 starts over the past five seasons and mostly being an average starter, while Mekari flashed potential as a versatile reserve earlier in his career, but has been underwhelming as a full-time starter over the past two seasons. The Jaguars also used a third round pick on guard Emmanuel Pregnon, although he seems like a long shot to start as a rookie, given the other options.

Right tackle Anton Harrison would be my pick to be the Jaguars’ best offensive lineman this season, given that Van Lanen is a one-year wonder. A first round pick in 2023, Harrison has improved in every season in the league and was an above average starter in 2025. Still only in his age 24 season, Harrison could improve even further in 2026 and, even if he doesn’t, he should remain an above average starter. He is almost definitely locked into a starting job at right tackle.

Center Robert Hainsey is also likely locked in as a starter, though that is due to the lack of another good option that can play center. A 3rd round pick in 2021, Hainsey made 34 starts for the Buccaneers in 2022 and 2023, but was a liability both seasons and subsequently lost his starting job. He showed flashes of improvement across 94 snaps in 2024 and the Jaguars decided that was enough to give him another shot as a starter as a free agent last off-season. He was better in 2025 than he was in 2022 and 2023, but he was still an underwhelming starter at best. He could be the weak link on an overall decent, but unspectacular offensive line.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

The Jaguars had a solid defense last season, ranking 11th in schedule adjusted efficiency, but the defensive tackle position was a big weakness of theirs and they didn’t do anything significant to improve this group this off-season. They used a 3rd round pick on Albert Regis, but he was a reach and is unlikely to contribute in a significant positive way in year one. Aside from that, the only move the Jaguars made at this position this off-season was trading Maason Smith, a bust of a 2024 2nd round pick, to the Falcons for Ruke Orhorhoro, also a bust of a 2024 2nd round pick. Orhorhoro still has upside, only going into his age 24 season, but he needs to take a big step forward to even be an average rotational player for the Jaguars.

It is possible the Jaguars will be even worse at the interior defender position this year than they were last season because their best player at the position a year ago, Arik Armstead, is going into his age 33 season and could easily decline further. His run defense has already declined significantly, to the point where he was a liability in that aspect in 2025. His pass rush was still what you’d expect from him, as his 10.5% pressure rate in 2025 was in line with his career rate of 10.8%, that aspect could also decline this season, given his age, which would hurt this defense.

DaVon Hamilton also remains as a rotational option. A 2020 3rd round pick Hamilton seemed to have a breakout year in his third season in the league in 2022, performing above average as run defender and a pass rusher (8.5% pressure rate), after struggling in his first two seasons, but that has proven to be a fluke, as he has just a 4.4% pressure rate while playing at a below average level against the run in three seasons since. He is likely to continue struggling in 2026 as part of an overall below average position group.

Grade: C

Edge Defenders

The Jaguars have one of the better edge defender duos in the league in Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker, but depth was a big problem for them last season. Hines-Allen finished last season with 8 sacks, 22 hits, and a 17.0% pressure rate, while playing at an above average level against the run as well. That is largely in line with how he has played throughout his prime, as he has a total of 40.5 sacks, 66 hits, and a 15.5% pressure rate in 67 games over the past four seasons, while consistently playing at an above average level against the run. Still only going into his age 29 season, Hines-Allen should remain in his prime and have another similar season in 2026.

Walker is not as good, but he still has 24 sacks, 27 hits, and a 11.3% pressure rate in 48 games over the past three seasons and the former #1 overall pick is still only going into his age 26 season. He is a good complement to Allen, but, unfortunately, the Jaguars’ top-2 reserve edge defenders last season were Emmanuel Ogbah (8.8% pressure rate) and Dawuane Smoot (5.6% pressure rate). Neither were retained this off-season, but the Jaguars didn’t really improve their depth, as their top reserves are likely to be 4th round rookie Wesley Williams, who could easily struggle in year one, and 2025 undrafted free agent Danny Striggow, who was underwhelming across 143 snaps as a rookie. The Jaguars’ lack of depth brings their overall grade for this position group down somewhat, but they at least have a good starting duo.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The loss of linebacker Devin Lloyd figures to be a big blow to this defense, as he played at an All-Pro level in 2025. Foyesade Oluokun remains and he is a solid every down linebacker in his own right, but he is not on the same level as Lloyd and he is also going into his age 31 season, meaning he could easily regress in 2026, which would further hurt this defense. In Lloyd’s absence, Ventrell Miller figures to be the other every down starting linebacker. 

A 2023 4th round pick, Miller has only played 702 snaps in three seasons in the league and, while he has shown some promise as a run defender, his issues in coverage will hurt him in his new expanded role. The Jaguars also have Dennis Gardeck, a good blitzer and run defender, but a major liability in coverage who is heading into his age 32 season having never exceeded 510 snaps played in a season. He is likely to remain a situational third linebacker like he was last season, when he played 423 snaps. The Jaguars also have 2025 4th round pick Jack Kiser, who struggled across 43 snaps as a rookie, but could still be in the mix for a bigger role in year two. This position group is significantly worse without Devin Lloyd.

Grade: C+

Secondary

As I mentioned earlier, cornerback Jarrian Jones and Antonio Brown broke out as the Jaguars’ best defensive backs down the stretch last season after being reserves earlier in the year. Jones, a 2024 3rd round pick, was underwhelming across 699 snaps as a rookie, but he proved to be an above average slot cornerback last season when given a chance. Still only in his age 25 season, it is likely Jones will continue playing at least close to a similar level and could even take another step forward in 2026.

Johnson’s emergence as an above average starting safety was much more surprising and, because it was so unexpected, he is much more likely to prove to be a fluke. A 5th round pick in 2023, Johnson played just 172 snaps as a rookie and then struggled mightily across 685 snaps in the first significant action of his career in 2024, before improving significantly in 2025. It is possible that continues, but it is also possible he regresses at least somewhat to his old form. 

The good news for this secondary is they get Travis Hunter back from injury. Splitting time between offense and defense and missing 10 games with injury, Hunter only played 162 snaps as a defensive back last season, but he showed a lot of promise, more than he did on offense. Between the fact that he was better on defense than on offense and the fact that the Jaguars have more of a need for cornerbacks than wide receiver, it looks like Hunter will play more of a full-time role on defense this season, while playing much more sparingly and situationally on offense, which seems like the right move. He has the tools to develop into a long term #1 cornerback, something the Jaguars do not have on their roster right now.

The Jaguars also retained free agent cornerback Montaric Brown, who figures to start opposite Hunter. A 7th round pick in 2022, Brown took a couple years to develop, but he has been a decent, if unspectacular player across snap counts of 855 and 736 over the past two seasons. Hunter, Brown, and Jones figure to be the Jaguars top-3 cornerbacks, but Jourdan Lewis, a veteran hybrid slot cornerback/safety, will probably also have a role. Lewis was a solid starting slot cornerback in his prime, but he was limited to just 612 middling snaps last season and is now going into his age 31 season. He is still good depth to have though.

Fellow veteran Eric Murray figures to start at safety next to Antonio Johnson. Murray has started 26 of 29 games played over the past two seasons with the Jaguars and Texans, but he has been underwhelming and now is heading into his age 32 season. He could split snaps with Lewis at safety. The Jaguars also used a 3rd round pick in this year’s draft on Jalen Huskey, though he is unlikely to contribute in a significant way in year one. Additionally, cornerback Caleb Ransaw, a 3rd round pick in 2025, is set to return after missing his whole rookie year with injury. This is a pretty deep secondary, but they don’t have a lot of high end talent unless Travis Hunter can break out in a big way.

Grade: B-

Kickers

The Jaguars used a 6th round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on kicker Cam Little and it paid off, as Little ranks 6th in the NFL with 12.47 points added above average since entering the league. His accuracy dropped a little bit in 2025, as he went from 93.1% on field goals to 88.2% and 100% on extra points to 98.0%, but he hit 8 times from 50+ yards, up from 5 in 2024, and set the NFL record by making a 68-yard field goal. Kickers are notoriously inconsistent, but Little looks likely to remain one of the best kickers in the league for years to come. 

Grade: A

Conclusion

The Jaguars were one of the best teams in the league in the second half of the season last year. However, they lost a pair of key players this off-season in Travis Etienne and Devin Lloyd, they didn’t get a lot of terms of short-term help in the draft, and they have several key players from a year ago who could prove to be a fluke. The Jaguars are still well coached and overall have a solid roster, so they should still be very much in the mix for the division or a wild card spot, but I wouldn’t expect them to match their 13-4 record from a year ago.

Prediction: 10-7, 2nd in AFC South

Los Angeles Rams 2026 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2026 NFL Season Previews, Rams

Quarterback

The Rams finished the 2025 season ranked 1st in first down rate differential (+5.98%), 2nd in yards per play differential (+0.98), and 1st in overall schedule adjusted efficiency (+9.73). Their offense ranked 1st in schedule adjusted efficiency, but they weren’t a one dimensional team, also ranking 10th on defense in schedule adjusted efficiency. They came up just short against the Seahawks in the NFC Championship in a game that largely swung on the Rams muffing a punt. The Seahawks then went on to blow out the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Between the Seahawks blowing the Patriots out and the fact that the Rams played the Seahawks close three times last season, winning once, it is not unreasonable to suggest that the Rams could have gone on to also win the Super Bowl in a blowout if they hadn’t muffed that punt and lost to the Seahawks.

Special teams was a weakness for the Rams all season, but the good news is special teams performance is much more inconsistent year-to-year than offensive or defensive performance, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Rams at least by a little bit better in special teams in 2026. The Rams also entered the off-season with two first round picks, as a result of a trade with the Falcons last season. The Rams used one of their picks on quarterback Ty Simpson, who figures to be a backup in the short-term, which I will get more into later, but they also used their other first round pick to trade for cornerback Trent McDuffie from the Chiefs, which filled the Rams’ one big need, a need they also addressed by signing another former Chiefs cornerback, Jaylen Watson, in free agency. 

Despite using one of those picks on a player who wouldn’t play this season in a best case scenario, the Rams significantly improved their roster this off-season, while the Seahawks suffered off-season losses and are now worse than they were at the end of last season. Given how close those two teams were last season and how much better they were than every other team, the Rams rightfully look like the Super Bowl favorites going into the 2026 season.

The Ty Simpson pick drew a lot of criticism, but I think it made a lot of sense and that drafting quarterback in the first round this year had been in the works for the Rams for at least the last year. Matt Stafford is going into his age 38 season in 2026 with a history of back injuries and has not agreed to a contract with the Rams beyond the upcoming season, so wanting to add a quarterback of the future behind him makes sense. However, the Rams are consistently in the playoffs and, as a result, don’t end up with draft picks high enough to take a quarterback unless they trade with another team that is not consistently in the playoffs, which the Rams did by trading their 2025 1st round pick to the Falcons for their 2026 1st round pick, which ended up being 13th overall. 

The 2026 quarterback class did not end up being as good as it looked a year ago and Matt Stafford won an MVP in the meantime, but the Rams still liked Ty Simpson enough to stick with the original plan. Simpson only started one year in college and played through injury for about half of that season, but he showed flashes of franchise quarterback potential when healthy could have been the #1 pick before he got hurt. The Rams are a great landing spot for him to be able to develop and live up to his potential long-term and I think there is a high likelihood he will be their quarterback of the future, something they did not have prior to drafting him. The Rams also have such a good roster overall that any other player they selected with that 13th overall would probably not have been a starter anyway, so using their pick to potentially set up their future made a lot more sense than anything else they could have done there.

The biggest threat to the Rams’ Super Bowl hopes this year is the age and health of Matt Stafford. Neither of those things held Stafford back from playing at an MVP level last season, completing 65.0% of his passes for an average of 7.88 YPA, 46 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, but that very well might not happen again this season. The good news is Stafford’s production last season was largely because of the supporting cast he had around him and the Rams brought back their top-12 in terms of snaps played on offense last season, so, even if Stafford isn’t as good this year as last year, he still has a good chance to be very productive. The addition of Ty Simpson also gives the Rams a contingency plan that can keep the team afloat if Stafford misses a short period of time with injury. This is a very talented quarterback room.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Another big concern for the Rams is the availability of Puka Nacua. Since entering the league as a 5th round pick in 2023, Nacua has been one of the best wide receivers in the league, averaging 3.19 yards per route run and a 121/1619/7 slash line per 17 games. However, he has a history of injury and is dealing with issues away from football. As of right now, there is nothing preventing him from being ready for the start of the season, but odds are probably against him playing all 17 games just the second time in four seasons.

Adding to the concern of Nacua’s availability is the fact that #2 wide receiver Davante Adams is heading into his age 34 season. Adams hasn’t shown significant signs of decline yet, finishing last season with a 60/789/14 slash line and a 1.92 yards per route run average, but he isn’t what he was in his prime, when he surpassed 2 yards per route run in five straight seasons and, given his age, he could drop off significantly more this season. 

Because of Nacua’s issues and Adams age, many wanted the Rams to select a wide receiver with the 13th pick instead of Ty Simpson. Instead, the favorite for the #3 wide receiver job is Jordan Whittington, a 2024 6th round pick who has averaged 1.40 yards per route run in a part-time role in his two seasons in the league. His primary competition is Xavier Smith, an undersized deep threat and 2023 undrafted free agent who has just 20 career catches, Konata Mumpfield, a 2025 7th round pick who averaged just 0.52 yards per route run as a rookie, and 6th round rookie CJ Daniels, a run blocking specialist who is unlikely to contribute in a significant way as a receiver.

Fortunately, the Rams do run a lot of two and three tight end sets to mask their lack of depth at wide receiver and they added further to their tight end room by drafting Max Klare in the second round of this year’s draft. Colby Parkinson was their most productive tight end last season, both in terms of total production (43/408/8 slash line) and yards per route run (1.67). That average was out of line with his career average of 1.25 and his average of 0.98 yards per route run in his first season with the Rams in 2024, but he did average 1.56 yards per route run in 2022, so his success last season didn’t come completely out of nowhere. Parkinson might regress a little bit this season, but Terrance Ferguson, a 2025 2nd round pick who averaged 1.38 yards per route run as a rookie, is in line for a larger role and the rookie Klare could see immediate action as well, both as a receiver and a blocker.

The Rams also re-signed veteran Tyler Higbee (1.49 yards per route run average in 2025, 1.37 for his career) to a 2-year, 6 million dollar deal this off-season and they still have Davis Allen, who played 585 snaps last season, second among Rams tight ends. Higbee is going into his age 33 season and Allen is a blocking specialist with a career average of 0.85 yards per route run (1.07 in 2025), but the Rams legitimately go five deep at tight end. It is possible that not all of these players will make the final roster, with Higbee and Allen as the most likely candidates to be left off the roster, but even still this is a very deep tight end group that can help mask a wide receiver group that has an elite top-2, but lacks depth. Overall, this is a receiving corps that a lot of teams would much prefer to their own.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

The Rams’ offensive line was one of the best in the league last season, ranking 5th in pass block win rate and 2nd in run block win rate, and they bring back all five primary starters from a year ago. Right guard Kevin Dotson is probably the best of the bunch and has been one of the best guards in the league for several years in a row. His age is a minor concern, going into his age 30 season, but even if he declines somewhat, he could still play at a borderline All-Pro level. 

Left tackle Alaric Jackson is probably the Rams’ second best offensive lineman. Originally undrafted in 2021, Jackson became a starter in 2022 and has improved in every season in the league. Last year was a career best year for him, but he wasn’t significantly better than he was in 2024, so it’s not as if last season was a fluke. He might not be quite as good again in 2026, but, still in his prime in his age 28 season, Jackson should remain at least a well above average starter for the third straight season.

Left guard Steve Avila and right tackle Walter McClendon were the breakout players on this line last season. Avila’s breakout wasn’t surprising, as the 2024 2nd round pick has always had a high upside and was at least an average starter in his first two seasons in the league. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued playing at a similar level in 2026 as he did in 2025 and I would say the chances of him being even better in 2026 are about equal to his chances of regressing back to his pre-2025 form. 

McClendon’s breakout, on the other hand, came out of nowhere, as the 2023 5th round pick had played just 353 mediocre snaps in two seasons in the league before playing at an above average level across 10 starts in place of an injured Rob Havenstein. McClendon played well enough to keep the spot even after Havenstein returned from injury and, with Havenstein retiring this off-season, McClendon will continue to start, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he did not play as well in his first full season as a starter as he did last season. The good news is even if he regresses he could easily still remain at least a solid starter.

The weak link of this offensive line is center Coleman Shelton, an experienced player who has started all 64 games he has played for the Rams and Bears over the past four seasons, but an average starter at best who is now heading into his age 31 season and could start to decline in 2026. He will almost definitely remain the starter though. Backup Beaux Limmer is a 2024 6th round pick who struggled mightily in 14 starts as a rookie, before moving to a backup role in 2025. 

The Rams could shift Steve Avila from guard to center, where he briefly took some off-season reps two years ago, and then plug in Justin Dedich, a 2024 undrafted free agent with 9 career starts, at guard, but while Dedich is a decent backup, he probably wouldn’t be an upgrade over Shelton as a starter and the Rams probably don’t want to change Avila’s position after the season he just had. Along with Limmer at center and Dedich at guard, the Rams also have David Quessenberry, a veteran swing tackle in his age 36 season with no starts in the past two seasons, and 3rd round rookie Keagan Trost, who could push Quessenberry for the swing tackle job. Depth is a minor concern, but this looks likely to be one of the best offensive lines in the league again this season.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The Rams also have an elite running back duo. Lead back Kyren Williams finished the season 6th in the NFL in rushing yards with 1,252, averaging 4.83 YPC on 259 carries with 10 rushing touchdowns. Williams has been the Rams’ lead back for three seasons and, in total, has 3,695 yards and 36 touchdowns on 803 carries (4.60 YPC). Last season, Williams led all eligible running backs in carry success rate with 62.9%. Corum actually ranked second though, at 59.3%, and he finished with a 5.14 YPC average and 6 touchdowns on 145 carries, a big step forward after the 2024 3rd round pick played sparingly as a rookie.

Williams is undersized at 5-9 194 and the Rams seemingly talk every off-season about giving him more rest, but this is the first off-season where the Rams have a running back that they know is as at least close to as good as Williams, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if Corum saw a further expanded role at Williams’ expense in 2026, in an effort to keep both backs fresh and effective late into the season and the post-season. 

Meanwhile, special teamer Ronnie Rivers, the Rams #3 back last season, will compete for the #3 running back job with 2025 4th round pick Jarquez Hunter, who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, but Rivers had just 9 carries in that role last season and, even if one of Corum or Williams miss time with injury, whoever wins the #3 back job would almost definitely only see a handful of touches per game at most.

The one weakness of Williams and Corum is the passing game, as they have averaged just 0.68 yards per route run and 0.64 yards per route run respectively in their careers, but part of that is the fact that the Rams don’t utilize the running back position in the passing game often, something that is unlikely to change this season. Even with their deficiencies in the passing game, Williams and Corum are one of the best running back duos in the league.

Grade: A

Edge Defenders

Like on offense, the Rams bring back all of their key contributors from last year, with the only players they didn’t retain being cornerbacks who they upgraded on significantly with the additions of Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson. The edge defender position was probably the Rams’ biggest strength on defense last season. Jared Verse, a 1st round pick in 2024, picked up where he left off in a dominant rookie season, totaling 7.5 sacks, 20 hits, and a 15.3% pressure rate in 2025 after 4.5 sacks, 16 hits, and a 15.9% pressure rate as a rookie. Meanwhile, 2023 3rd round pick Byron Young had a breakout season with 12 sacks, 19 hits, and a 15.6% pressure rate, after totaling 15.5 sacks, 21 hits, and a 10.8% pressure rate in his first two seasons in the league combined. 

Young is a one-year wonder in terms of producing at the level he produced at last season and he is relatively old for someone only in his fourth season in the league, going into his age 28 season, but he could still continue producing at close to the same level as he did last season. Verse, meanwhile, is only going into his age 26 season and his best football could still be ahead of him. He has the upside to be a Defensive Player of the Year winner at some point in his career.

The Rams also have a good reserve option in 2025 3rd round pick Josaiah Stewart, who only played 375 snaps as a rookie last season, but impressed, particularly as a pass rusher, where he had a 12.7% pressure rate. Between Verse, Young, and Stewart, the Rams don’t need much else at the edge defender position, but their 4th edge defender, Desjuan Johnson, has shown a little promise in his career, with a career 11.5% pressure rate, albeit across a total of just 324 snaps in three seasons in the league since being selected in the 7th round in 2023. This is a very deep and talented group.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

The Rams also have a pair of high level pass rushers on the interior of their defensive line as well. Kobie Turner finished last season with 7 sacks, 8 hits, and a 11.5% pressure rate, while Braden Fiske finished with 3 sacks, 8 hits, and a 11.5% pressure rate. That wasn’t out of character for either player too, as Turner has totaled 24 sacks, 19 hits, and a 10.6% pressure rate in three seasons in the league, while Fiske also had 8.5 sacks, 2 hits, and a 11.8% pressure rate as a rookie in 2024. Only in their age 27 season and age 26 season respectively, I would expect more of the same in 2026.

Fiske is a liability against the run, but Turner is a well-rounded player and Fiske’s issues against the run are masked a little by Poona Ford, a talented run stuffer that the Rams frequently rotate into the lineup in running situations. Ford’s 508 snaps played last season ranked third among Rams interior defenders. Ford has always been a talented run defender, but he also had a career high 10.7% pressure rate last season and, even if that was a little out of character, his career pressure rate of 7.1% isn’t bad either, especially for a player who is primarily a run defender. Ford’s age is becoming a concern, as he’s heading into his age 31 season, but he could easily remain a useful rotational player for the Rams.

Tyler Davis also played 475 snaps as the #4 defensive tackle last season and he played decently in a rotational role, holding up against the run and adding a 7.0% pressure rate as a pass rusher. A 6th round pick in 2024, Davis struggled across 298 snaps as a rookie, but he could have permanently turned a corner and could easily remain a capable rotational player. Like the edge defender position, this is also overall a very deep and talented group.

Grade: A

Linebackers

The Rams were not as good at linebacker as they were at edge defender and interior defender last season, but they still had a solid linebacker duo and both joined the Rams in very unassuming fashion. Omar Speights went undrafted in 2024, flashed potential across 319 snaps as a rookie and then continued that over a larger role in 2025, when he played 673 snaps. Meanwhile, Nate Landman is also a former undrafted free agent and joined the Rams last off-season after being non-tendered as a restricted free agent by the Atlanta Falcons. 

Landman was an above average run defender for the Falcons and played snap counts of 809 and 543 in 2023 and 2024 respectively, but he was mediocre in coverage, which led to the Falcons going in a different direction. The Rams then scooped him up on a cheap deal and got his best year yet in 2025, as he continued his above average run defense, but also improved a little in coverage, while playing a career high 1,017 snaps, leading to the Rams giving him a big raise on a 3-year, 22.5 million dollar extension. Neither Landman nor Speights are high level players, but they are at least capable starters and should continue playing at a similar level in 2026.

No other Rams linebacker played more than 100 snaps last season, but, in case depth is needed, free agent addition Grant Stuard figures to be their top reserve. Stuard is primarily a special teamer, playing just 300 total defensive snaps in five seasons in the league, since going in the 7th round in 2021, but he hasn’t been bad when called upon. He’s not a great backup option, but he is the best the Rams have, a minor concern in an otherwise above average position group.

Grade: B+

Secondary

Cobie Durant (819 snaps), Emmanuel Forbes (814 snaps), Darious Williams (458 snaps), and Akhello Witherspoon (174 snaps) all played significant roles for the Rams at cornerback last season and they were all average at best, with Forbes and Witherspoon particularly struggling. The Rams were able to mask some of their lack of cornerback depth with their safety depth, but cornerback was still a big position of need for them heading into this off-season, by far the biggest need on the roster. The Rams still figure to use a lot of 3 and 4 safety sets, but off-season acquisitions Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson also give them one of the best starting cornerback duos in the league. 

McDuffie, a 2022 1st round pick, has been an above average starting cornerback since entering the league and is very much still in his prime in his age 26 season. Watson, meanwhile, was only a 7th round pick in 2022, but showed promise across 440 snaps as a reserve in 2023 and in six games as a starter in an injury shortened season in 2024 and then carried that over a full season as a starter in 2025, when he was an above average starter. He’s technically still a one-year wonder as a season-long starter, but he could easily continue that level of play with his new team.

Of the four cornerbacks who played significant snaps for the Rams last season, only Emmanuel Forbes remains. He is likely to be the #3 cornerback, but the Rams use three and four safeties on the field at the same time often, so Forbes’ role is unlikely to be big unless either McDuffie or Watson miss time with injury. That is a good thing because Forbes has struggled throughout his career, despite being a former first round pick. Only going into his fourth season in the league, Forbes is already on his second team and his extended playing time last season was mostly out of a lack of a better option. Forbes is still only in his age 25 season, so he could theoretically still have untapped potential, but it is far from a guarantee that he ever develops into even an average starter.

At safety, Kamren Curl and Quentin Lake are likely to be the starters in base packages. Curl was just a 7th round pick in 2020, but he has started 86 games in six seasons in the league, including all 61 games he has played over the past four seasons, and has mostly been an average to above average starter. Still only going into his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2026. Lake, meanwhile, is also a solid starter, starting 26 of the 27 games he has played over the past two seasons, splitting his time between safety in base packages and slot cornerback in sub packages. 

Kamren Kitchens is expected to be the third safety again, which is close to a full-time job in this defense. He has also been a solid safety, on snap counts of 514 and 842, since going in the 3rd round in 2024 and, in his age 24 season, it is very possible his best football is still ahead of him. A pair of 2024 undrafted free agents who have shown potential, Jaylen McCollough (846 snaps in two seasons in the league) and Josh Wallace (270 snaps in two seasons in the league), are also in the mix at a position that legitimately goes five deep. With a deep safety room and a much improved cornerback room, this is now an above average secondary.

Grade: B+

Kickers

The Rams had poor special teams last season, but their kicker game at least improved significantly when they cut Joshua Karty, a 2024 6th round pick, and replaced him with former undrafted free agent Harrison Mevis. Karty made just 66.7% of his field goals and 88.5% of his extra points in 8 games, costing the Rams 11.89 points compared to an average kicker and losing at least one game for them that they otherwise would have won, while Mevis made 92.3% of his field goals and 100% of his extra points, accounting for 6.64 points above average. He probably won’t ever be one of the best kickers in the league, but he gives the Rams stability at the position that they didn’t have before.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Rams could have very easily won the Super Bowl last year if certain things went the other way. Now going into 2026, they have addressed their few significant needs, while the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks have lost key players, leading to the Rams rightfully being seen as Super Bowl favorites. There are still concerns, particularly with key players like Matt Stafford and Davante Adams being of advanced age, but overall this looks like a stacked roster with no obvious weaknesses.

Prediction: 15-2, 1st in NFC West

New Orleans Saints 2026 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2026 NFL Season Previews, Saints

Quarterback

Last off-season, the Saints were in arguably the worst position of any team. Years of aggressive cap maneuvering paired with years of poor drafting led to the Saints missing the playoffs in four straight seasons and, going into last off-season, they had a roster that was increasingly aging and a cap situation that was increasingly becoming inflexible. Now a year later, the Saints’ playoff drought still continues, but, after a good 2025 draft, the Saints have much more promising young talent than they used to and hope for the future.

The most important player in that draft class is quarterback Tyler Shough, selected in the second round. Shough didn’t take over as the starter until week 9, but in 9 starts he completed 67.6% of his passes for an average of 7.29 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, while rushing for 186 yards and 3 touchdowns on 45 carries (4.13 YPC). Most importantly, Shough led the Saints to a 5-4 record in his starts, after the Saints started 1-7. He was an old rookie and is already heading into his age 27 season, so he doesn’t have the same upside as most quarterbacks who have an impressive rookie season, but he seems likely to at least continue his level of play from the second half of last season into this season. 

Shough will continue being backed up by Spencer Rattler, who actually wasn’t that bad in his 8 starts last season, completing 67.7% of his passes for an average of 6.17 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, mostly struggling to win games because of issues with his supporting cast. A 5th round pick in 2024, Rattler struggled mightily in 6 starts as a rookie (70.4 passer rating), but he entered the league very raw and was clearly improved in 2025. Actually younger than Shough, going into his age 26 season, Rattler probably isn’t a starting caliber quarterback, but he is at least a solid backup option.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The Saints also made a good pick in the first round of last year’s draft, using the 9th overall pick on Kelvin Banks, who made all 17 starts at left tackle as a rookie and proved to be an above average starter. Banks could be even better in his second season in the league and looks to have a bright future ahead of him. Having cheap young talented players at quarterback and left tackle, two of the most expensive positions in the league, has taken a lot of the pressure off the Saints’ tough cap situation and allowed them to spend in big ways this off-season. 

One of the players they paid was former Bills guard David Edwards, who joins the team on a 4-year, 61 million dollar deal and will start at left guard. Edwards was a little bit of an overpay, ranking 16th in the league among guards in average annual salary, but he has been at least an average starter across 32 starts over the past two seasons and he is still only going into his age 29 season, so he is likely to continue playing at a similar level for at least another couple seasons. He should be an obvious upgrade over Trevor Penning and Dillon Radunz, who both struggled as the starting left guard last season.

At center, the Saints are likely to get better health from Eric McCoy, who missed 10 games with injury last season. Durability has been a concern for McCoy throughout his career, missing 27 games over the past 5 seasons, including 20 games over the past two seasons, but he has mostly been an above average starter when he does play and, still only in his age 29 season, he has obvious bounce back potential if he can stay healthier in 2026. 

Opposite Banks at right tackle, the Saints have another former first round pick, Taliese Fuaga. Fuaga has been just an average starter in 30 starts in two seasons in the league, but he is only going into his age 24 season and he has a big upside, so he could easily take a step forward in his third season in the league in 2026 and have the best season of his career. Even if he doesn’t take a step forward, he should remain at least an average starter. 

The weak link on this offensive line is right guard Cesar Ruiz. Ruiz is also a former first round pick, back in 2020, but he has mostly struggled in 83 starts in six seasons in the league. A lack of depth is also a concern for the Saints because their top reserves are Dillon Radunz, a hybrid tackle/guard who has made 41 starts in 5 seasons in the league, but has mostly struggled, Asim Richards, a mediocre swing tackle with 5 starts in 3 seasons in the league, and 4th round rookie guard Jeremiah Wright. This offensive line should be better than it was last year though, even if they still have some concerns.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

The Saints also gave a big contract to free agent running back Travis Etienne, making him the 8th highest paid running back in the league in terms of average annual salary with a 4-year, 48 million dollar extension. Running back was a weakness for the Saints last season, as they ranked 31st in the NFL with a 3.69 YPC. Part of the problem was run blocking, as the Saints ranked 23rd in run block win rate, which should improve this season, but the running backs themselves were also part of the problem. 

Etienne is not an elite running back, but he is an experienced lead back who should be significantly better than what the Saints had last season. A first round pick in 2021, Etienne has surpassed 1,000 rushing yards in a season three times and is a decent pass catcher as well, with 1.07 yards per route run in his career, but injuries have significantly affected his other two seasons, as he missed all of his rookie season in 2021 and was limited to 3.72 YPC and 150 carries by injuries in 2024. He was healthy last season though and finished with 1,107 yards and 7 touchdowns on 260 carries (4.26 YPC), with a 36/292/6 slash line as a receiver. As long as he is healthy in 2026, he should be similarly productive in a backfield where he doesn’t have meaningful competition for touches.

Alvin Kamara, the Saints’ long-time lead back, is still on the roster, but he looked like a shell of himself last season (3.60 YPC, 0.78 yards per route run) and there is a good chance he retires or is released before the season starts, ahead of what would be his age 31 season. Even if he remains on the roster, he would see a limited role and probably wouldn’t be a significant factor for this team. If Kamara isn’t on the roster, the #2 running back job will go to either Devin Neal, Kendre Miller, and Audric Estime. 

Neal, a 2025 6th round pick, struggled on 57 carries as a rookie, averaging 3.61 yards per carry, with just 2.39 yards per carry after contact and a 17.5% missed tackle rate. Miller is probably the most talented option, averaging 3.91 YPC, 3.33 yards per carry after contact, a 29.9% missed tackle rate, and 1.37 yards per route run in his career, since going in the 3rd round in 2023, but he has been limited to just 127 carries in 21 games in three seasons in the league due to injuries and he is currently rehabbing from a torn ACL suffered in the middle of last season. 

Estime, meanwhile, was a 5th round pick in 2024 and has averaged 4.16 YPC, 3.16 yards per carry after contact, a 18.9% missed tackle rate, over just 122 carries in two seasons in the league. Whoever wins the backup job will only be used to spell Etienne when he needs a rest and, if Etienne misses injuries, the Saints will probably use a committee rather than committing to one of their backup options. This backfield is better than it was last season, but this group is still a little underwhelming.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

Wide receiver was also a big need for the Saints this off-season, as their #2 wide receiver last season in terms of receiving yardage was Rashid Shaheed, who had a 44/499/2 slash line in 9 games before being traded. The Saints addressed this need in a big way by using the 8th overall pick on Jordyn Tyson, who figures to have an immediate impact. Suddenly, this looks like a pretty good receiving corps. Tyson will slot in as the #2 receiver behind Chris Olave, who has averaged a 89/1152/6 slash line per 17 games and 2.13 yards per route run in four seasons in the league since being selected in the first round by the Saints in 2022. 

Still very much in his prime in his age 26 season, Olave should have another similarly productive season in 2026 if healthy, though he could see a small downtick in production because Tyson figures to have a big target share too. The “if healthy” part is an important caveat because, even though Olave has only missed 13 games in four seasons in the league, he has a concerning history of concussions and could be forced to miss an extended period of time if he suffers another one in 2025. Tyson also has a concerning injury history, missing time throughout his collegiate career, but, on pure talent, he could have been a top-5 pick if not for the injury concerns, so the Saints could have a steal if he can stay healthy.

Devaughn Vele figures to be the #3 receiver. Acquired from the Broncos before the season last off-season, Vele started the season as the #4 receiver, but operated as the #2 receiver after Shaheed was traded and Brandin Cooks was released, totaling 19 catches for 239 yards and a touchdown in four games in that role before getting hurt and missing the rest of the season. Vele also had a 41/475/3 slash line as a 7th round rookie in 2024 with the Broncos and, overall, has averaged 1.38 yards per route run in two seasons in the league. 

Old as a rookie and already going into his age 29 season, Vele doesn’t have a high upside, but he is a solid third receiver. The Saints also used 4th and 6th round picks on Bryce Lance and Barion Brown respectively and Lance figures to have the inside track on the #4 receiver job in a receiving corps that lacks another good veteran option, with Mason Tipton (career 0.42 yards per route run average) being the biggest veteran competition for the #4 job.

With the Saints’ issues at wide receiver last season, tight end Juwan Johnson took on a bigger role in the offense, setting career highs by a wide margin in targets (102), catches (77), yards (889), and yards per route run (1.69) in his 6th season in the league, after previously maxing out at just 66 targets, 50 catches, 548 yards, and 1.39 yards per route run in a season. Johnson should see his usage drop back closer to his previous level with more wide receiver talent added and with Johnson now heading into his age 30 season, but he figures to still be a useful part of this offense.

Foster Moreau (253 snaps), Taysom Hill (211 snaps), and Jack Stoll (210 snaps) all saw snaps as backups last season and are no longer with the team, leaving the #2 tight end job to either veteran free agent acquisition Noah Fant, a decent receiver with a 1.44 yards per route run average in his career, or third round rookie Oscar Delp, a more well-rounded tight end who might be too raw to contribute in a significant way in year one. Thanks in large part to draft day additions, the Saints receiving corps is in a lot better shape now than it was at the end of last season.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Saints’ defense was the strength of their team last season, ranking 9th in schedule adjusted efficiency, as opposed to 27th on offense. The Saints’ offense should be better this season in the first full season of Tyler Shough, with additions made at running back, guard, and wide receiver, but their defense might not be as good due to several off-season losses. One of those losses was edge defender Cameron Jordan, who was not retained for his age 37 season in 2026, but still had 10.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 11.5% pressure rate last season, despite his advanced age.

To replace him, the Saints traded for Tyree Wilson and Anfernee Jennings, who figure to be downgrades. Wilson at least has some upside, as he was the 7th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and is still only going into his age 26 season, but he has not lived up to his draft slot. He has been a little better over the past two seasons after a dismal rookie year, but he still only has 8.5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 11.0% pressure rate in 33 games over the past two seasons, so it isn’t a surprise that the Raiders were willing to give him up for a late round pick. Jennings, meanwhile, is a solid run defender who has played an average of 533 snaps per season over the past 4 seasons, but he is a below average pass rusher with a pressure rate of just 8.7% of his career.

The Saints’ top-2 edge defenders are holdovers Chase Young and Carl Granderson. Young is a high level pass rusher, with 32 sacks, 39 hits, and a 12.2% pressure rate in 72 career games, including a career high 10 sacks, 4 hits, and a career high 17.2% pressure rate last season, and he is an effective run defender as well. The 2020 2nd overall pick, Chase is also still very much in his prime, only going into his age 27 season. 

Injuries are the one concern with Chase, as he has missed 29 games in six seasons in the league, while only once playing all 17 games. He missed 5 games last season and the Saints’ defense was noticeably worse without him, allowing 5.26 yards per play and a 33.13% first down rate without him, as opposed to 4.66 yards per play and a 27.14% first down rate with him. If he can play more games this season, it will be a boost to this defense, but his injury history suggests that is not a guarantee.

Granderson, meanwhile, is a better run defender than pass rusher, but is not a bad pass rusher either, with 28.5 sacks, 35 hits, and a 11.0% pressure rate in 82 games over the past five seasons. He is going into his age 30 season and could start to decline soon, but he could easily remain an average starting edge defender for another season. This is a decent but unspectacular edge defender group that will probably miss Cameron Jordan, whose replacements figure to be downgrades.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

At the interior defender position, the Saints bring back their top-3 in terms of snaps played last season, Nathan Shepherd (695 snaps), Bryan Bresee (667 snaps), and Davon Godchaux (455 snaps), and they also added Cristen Miller in the second round of this year’s draft and get back 2025 3rd round pick Vernon Broughton following a rookie season that ended after 24 snaps in one game because of injury. Bresee, a first round pick in 2023, is the best of the bunch, although largely by default. He struggles against the run, but makes up for it somewhat as a pass rusher, with 14.5 sacks, 17 hits, and a 8.0% pressure rate in 49 career games. Only in his age 25 season, he still has time to get better as a run defender, though that is not a guarantee.

Shepherd, on the other hand, is going into his age 33 season and could easily decline this season. He wasn’t a high level player in his prime either, providing inconsistent run defense and a career 7.1% pressure rate as a pass rusher. With Miller being added in the draft, Broughton returning after a lost rookie year, and Bresee continuing to develop, it seems highly unlikely that Shepherd will lead this position group in snaps again this season. Godchaux, primarily a run defender with a career 4.2% pressure rate, is also going into his age 32 season and could see an even further reduced role in 2026. This is an underwhelming group overall unless young players exceed expectations.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

By far the biggest loss on this Saints defense this off-season is linebacker Demario Davis, who the Saints opted not to retain ahead of what would have been his age 37 season. Davis’ age was a concern, but he hadn’t shown any signs of decline, continuing to play at an All-Pro level in recent years. In his absence, the Saints signed Kaden Elliss, a solid linebacker in his own right, but an obvious downgrade from Davis. Elliss isn’t young either, going into his age 31 season, so he could also decline this season.

Pete Werner, a middling #2 linebacker, remains in that role and, in his age 27 season, should continue playing at a similar level, while playing a snap count similar to the 50.5 snaps per game he has averaged in 58 games over the past 4 seasons. Danny Stutsman, a 2025 4th round pick who showed promise across 204 snaps as a rookie, will also remain in his role as the #3 linebacker. He would be a projection to a larger role, but he is a good option as far as #3 linebackers go and he could easily prove to be capable of handling a larger role if either Elliss or Werner miss extended time with injury. This isn’t a bad linebacking corps, but the loss of Davis will be a big blow to this defense.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The Saints also lost cornerback Alontae Taylor this off-season, but that figures to be the least impactful loss. The Saints replaced him by signing free agent Martin Emerson, who isn’t as reliable as Taylor, but comes with a much higher upside. Emerson had a solid rookie year in 2022 and then an even better second season in the league in 2023, when he allowed 47.1% completion and no touchdowns on 70 targets. However, he regressed significantly in 2024, allowing 62.7% completion and 6 touchdowns with no interceptions and then he tore his achilles and missed the entire 2025 season. The injury and his history of inconsistency obviously make him a risky signing, but he will be more than a full year removed from the injury by the start of the season and, given the top-end ability he has shown and that he is only going into his age 26 season, he could prove to be worth the risk.

The Saints also have a pair of recent draft picks, Kool-Aid McKinstry, a 2024 2nd round pick, and Quincy Riley, a 2025 4th round pick, who also will have big roles. McKinstry built off of a solid rookie season in which he played 680 snaps with an above average second season as a 17-game starter in 2025 and, still only in his age 24 season, his best football could easily still be ahead of him. Riley, meanwhile, had a decent rookie season across 592 snaps last season, as part of the Saints’ impressive 2025 draft class, and will look to build on that in year two in 2026. 

The Saints used another draft pick in this year’s draft on a cornerback, taking Lorenzo Styles in the 4th round to give them additional depth. He will compete with veteran Isaac Yiadom for the #4 cornerback job. Yiadom has shown flashes in limited action in his career, but has never exceeded 634 snaps in a season and is now going into his age 30 season. He’s not a bad depth option, but either he or the rookie Styles could easily struggle if forced into an extended starting role by injuries ahead of them on the depth chart. This is a high upside cornerback group, even if it is relatively young and inexperienced. 

The Saints are also deep at safety and could use three safeties on the field at the same time regularly. Another member of the Saints’ 2025 draft class, 3rd round pick Jonas Sanker was solid across 976 snaps (16 starts in 17 games) as a rookie. Justin Reid is a consistently average to above average starter (117 career starts) who is still in his prime in his age 29 season. Those two are likely their best starting options at the position. However, the Saints also brought back Julian Blackmon, who missed all but one game last season with injury and has missed 34 games in six seasons in the league, but has otherwise been decent when healthy, and they have is Jordan Howden, a 2023 5th round pick who has only averaged 459 snaps per season in his career, but has shown flashes of potential in his limited roles. This is a solid secondary across the board.

Grade: B+

Kicker

Kicking was an issue for the Saints last season. Veteran Blake Grupe began the season as the starter, but hit just 69.2% of his field goals, leading to his release. Charlie Smyth, a 2024 undrafted free agent making his debut, took over from there, but cost the Saints 2.58 points compared to an average kicker in six games. Smyth is currently listed as the starter, but could face competition from undrafted rookie Mason Shipley, who hit 86.4% of his field goals in college, but just 5 of 9 from 50 yards or more. Whoever wins the kicker job is likely to be a below average option this season.

Grade: C

Conclusion

The Saints’ roster still is underwhelming overall and, while their offense should be better this season than a year ago, perhaps significantly so, it looks likely that their defense will be worse. However, they face one of the weakest schedules in the league, facing a last place schedule and playing in the worst division in the NFL, so it wouldn’t be hard for them to win enough games to at least be in the mix for the division, given the other options in the NFC South

Prediction: 8-9, 1st in NFC South

Indianapolis Colts 2026 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2026 NFL Season Previews, Colts

Quarterback

The Colts started last season a surprising 7-1 and decided to go all in, trading two first round picks to the Jets for Sauce Gardner, one of the top cornerbacks in the league. Things did not go as planned, however. The Colts’ schedule, which was one of the easiest in the league in the first half of the season, turned into one of the hardest in the league in the second half of the season and, making matters worse, Gardner would play just 4 games for the Colts due to injuries, while their starting quarterback Daniel Jones tore his achilles and missed the final 4 games of the season. All in all, the Colts went just 1-8 after acquiring Gardner, missing the playoffs entirely and surrendering the 16th overall pick to the Jets.

However, the situation is a lot better than it would seem. Despite an underwhelming 8-9 record overall, the Colts actually finished the season 11th in point differential (+54), 13th in first down rate differential (+1.12%), 8th in yards per play differential (+0.43), and 6th in schedule adjusted efficiency (+3.74), with their underwhelming record largely being the result of a 3-7 record in one-score games. Not having a first round pick in this year’s draft hurts them, but the Colts only had Sauce Gardner for four games last season and getting him back for a full season is more valuable than a first round pick. 

Additionally, another talented cornerback Charvarius Ward was limited to 7 games by injury last season, while top interior defender DeForest Buckner was limited to 10 games. Gardner, Ward, and Buckner are arguably their three best defensive players and they didn’t play a single game together last season. With better health from their key players, the Colts’ defense should be improved from their 22nd ranked finish in schedule adjusted efficiency, perhaps significantly improved.

Having a quarterback coming off of a significant injury is a concern, but even with Jones missing time last season, they still finished 6th in schedule adjusted efficiency on offense. Even when Jones was healthy last season, their offensive success was arguably more about their dominant offensive supporting cast than it was about the play of their quarterback and, when Jones was out, their offensive supporting cast prevented a complete collapse, despite their quarterbacks being Philip Rivers, who hadn’t played in five seasons, and Riley Leonard, a 6th round rookie. 

Jones himself was a reclamation project, signed to a one-year prove it deal last off-season after being cut by the Giants. The 6th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, Jones was mostly a disappointment in New York, starting 69 games, completing 64.1% of his passes for an average of 6.51 YPA, 70 touchdowns, and 47 interceptions, and rushing for 2,179 yards and 15 touchdowns on 399 carries (5.46 YPC), but he consistently had a poor supporting cast. Jones is not as good as he looked last year with the Colts, when he completed 68.0% of his passes for an average of 8.08 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, while rushing for 3.64 YPC and 5 touchdowns on 45 carries, but he was never as bad as he looked like the Giants.

The big concern with Jones is durability, not just his recovery from his most recent injury, but an extensive history of injuries that has limited him to 83 games in seven seasons in the league. Even if Jones is ready for the start of the season, there is no guarantee he is 100% and that he doesn’t miss more time. If he does miss more time, the Colts would likely turn back to Riley Leonard, who only had a 67.7 passer rating as a rookie. It seems unlikely he will ever develop into a starting caliber quarterback, but he could wind up being a decent backup. Needless to say, the Colts would be a lot better off if Jones was healthy enough to start the whole season.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

There have been a couple changes on the Colts’ offense since last season, one more impactful than the other. The more impactful of the two changes is their trade of Michael Pittman to the Steelers in a salary dump. Pittman had a decent 2025 season, finishing with a 80/784/7 slash line on 111 targets with a 1.46 yards per route run average, but the Colts still have a great receiving corps without him. Alec Pierce has led the team in receiving in back-to-back years, with slash lines of 37/824/7 and 47/1003/6 on yards per route run averages of 1.82 and 2.10 respectively, and he has done that despite target totals of 69 and 84 respectively.

An elite deep threat, Pierce is capable of drawing double teams deep and still making plays, averaging over 20 yards per catch in each of the past two seasons and managing a 54.9% catch rate, despite inconsistent quarterback play and his high average depth of target (1st in the NFL at 22.8 in 2024 and 2nd in the NFL at 20.0 in 2025). The question is whether or not Pierce can take his game to another level and become a more complete receiver across what figures to be a significantly higher target share in Pittman’s absence. Pierce is only going into his age 26 season, so he could keep getting better and, even if he doesn’t, he is still a very useful option in the receiving game.

Slot receiver Josh Downs and tight end Tyler Warren also figure to see an uptick in targets, after 88 and 112 respectively last season, and both are possession receivers whose skillsets are more similar to what they lost when Pittman was traded. Downs only had a 58/566/4 slash line and 1.49 yards per route run in 2025, but that was largely because he only had 88 targets. In 2023, when he had 98 targets, he had a 68/771/2 slash line and 1.60 yards per route run and, in 2024, when he had 107 targets, he had a 72/803/5 slash line and 2.20 yards per route run. 

Downs should see a target share in 2026 that is more in line with his target share in 2023 and 2024 and he should see his production bounce back as a result. He is also still only going into his age 25 season and has the upside to have his best season yet in 2026. Warren, meanwhile, had a 76/817/4 slash line with 1.63 yards per route run last year, despite being a rookie, and the 2025 14th overall pick could easily take a big step forward in year two in 2026.

With Pittman gone, the #3 wide receiver job will either go to free agent addition Nick Westbrook-Ikhine or incumbent #4 wide receiver Ashton Dulin. Neither are good options, as Westbrook-Ikhine has a career average of 1.03 yards per route run, while Dulin has primarily been a special teamer in his career, catching just 40 passes in 7 seasons in the league. At tight end, Mo Alie-Cox figures to be the #2 tight end again. He was a capable receiver in his prime, but is going into his age 33 season and has averaged just 0.88 yards per route run over the past 4 seasons, so he is mostly on the field for blocking at this stage of his career. The Colts still have an impressive top-3 in the receiving corps, but the loss of Michael Pittman does create a depth problem.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The less impactful loss on this Colts offense is right tackle Braden Smith, who left as a free agent. Smith had been the Colts right tackle for years and had some good years in the past, but he was only an average starter in 13 starts in an injury plagued 2025 season and his injury replacement, 4th round rookie Jalen Travis, outplayed him in 4 starts. Travis is a projection to a larger role and might not be as good over a full season, but he also has the upside to be an improvement over Smith. Smith was probably the weak link on an overall elite offensive line, so if Travis could be an upgrade, that would just further boost this position group. 

At left tackle, left guard, and center, the Colts started players who were among the best in the league at their positions last season in Bernhard Raimann, Quenton Nelson, and Tanor Bortolini. Raimann and Nelson have played at that level for several seasons, though Nelson’s age is starting to become a minor concern, in his age 30 season. Bortolini, meanwhile, is a one-year wonder, as the 2024 4th round pick was only average as a rookie. Nelson’s age and Bortolini’s’ lack of elite experience are minor concerns, but, overall, this is still one of the best trios of offensive line starters in the league.

The other starter on this offensive line is Matt Goncalves, a 3rd round pick in 2024 who was about average in 16 starts at right guard last season, after being about average in 8 starts at tackle as a rookie. The Colts seem to prefer him at guard, but he has the versatility to move to tackle if needed in case of injury. That could be needed because the Colts’ top-2 reserves are probably their backup guards, Dalton Tucker and Matt Farmer. Both are underwhelming options though and I only call them their best reserves by default, as Tucker has struggled in 9 career starts and Farmer is a 4th round rookie. Even with minor depth concerns though, this is one of the best offensive lines in the league as their expected starting five is as good as any in the league.

Grade: A

Running Backs

Featured running back Jonathan Taylor was also a big part of the reason for the Colts’ offensive success last season. He definitely benefited from good blocking and a strong offense around him, but he finished the season 3rd among running backs in rushing yards (1,585), 1st in carries (323), and 1st in rushing touchdowns (18), while averaging 4.91 yards per carry, 3.52 yards per carry after contact, a 20.7% missed tackle rate, and a 51.7% carry success rate. Those numbers are largely in line with the 6-year veteran’s career averages, as he has averaged 1,538 yards and 14 touchdowns on 314 carries per 17 games in his career, with a 4.90 YPC, 3.24 yards per carry after contact, a 18.0% missed tackle rate, and a 50.7% carry success rate.

The biggest issue for Taylor in his career has been injuries, as he has missed time in four of six seasons in the league, including 16 games missed from 2022-2024, before he finally stayed healthy again for a full season in 2025. Taylor also isn’t a high level pass catcher, averaging a 38/297/1 slash line per 17 games and 0.91 yards per route run in his career. However, purely as a runner, he is as good as any running back in the league when healthy.

Taylor’s history of injuries made more concerning by the Colts’ lack of depth at running back. DJ Giddens, a 5th round pick in 2025, finished second among Colts running backs in carries with just 26 last season. It’s possible he has upside we haven’t seen yet because he hasn’t gotten a chance to show it, but he is a shaky backup option. Ameer Abdullah only had 14 carries last season, but he did provide value as a passing down back, averaging 1.71 yards per route run, and he wasn’t retained this off-season, leaving the Colts without a good passing down specialist. The Colts added Seth McGowan in the 7th round of this year’s draft, but he wasn’t a good pass catcher in college and isn’t necessarily an upgrade over Giddens as the backup. Taylor elevates this position group significantly, but lack of depth is a concern, especially when coupled with Taylor’s injury history.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

As I mentioned, the Colts struggled on defense last season, in large part due to significant injuries suffered by key players. One of those players was interior defender DeForest Buckner, who was limited to 469 snaps in 10 games by a neck injury that eventually required surgery. Buckner has mostly been very durable in his career, missing just two games in his first nine seasons in the league combined, while averaging 52.3 snaps per game throughout his career, but he has now missed 12 games over the past two seasons combined, he is coming off of a significant surgery, and he is going into his age 32 season, so durability is a question for him going forward.

Buckner’s run defense also declined even before the injury last season, which is also concerning, given his age, but he remained a well above average pass rusher, with 4 sacks, 11 hits, and a 11.4% pressure rate that actually exceeds his career average of 10.2%. In total, Buckner has 71.5 sacks and 127 hits in 151 career games while playing at an above average level as a run defender in every season of his career except last season. All of this is to say that, while Buckner’s age and recent injury history are concerns, even at less than his best, Buckner should be an above average interior defender and, in the likely case that he will play more than he did last season, that will be a boost for this defense.

Buckner’s return will especially be a welcome addition for this defense because the rest of their defensive tackle room is pretty underwhelming. Grover Stewart used to be an effective running mate for Buckner, but he declined both as a pass rusher and a run defender in 2025 and, now going into his age 33 season, it seems likely that his best days are behind him. It’s possible he will be a little better in 2026 than he was in 2025, but it seems unlikely he will ever regain his old form.

Adetomiwa Adebawore saw the biggest increase in playing time in Buckner’s absence last season, totaling 548 snaps on the season, after the 2023 4th round pick only played 269 total snaps in his first two seasons in the league combined. Adebawore was an effective interior pass rusher, with 4 sacks, 1 hit, and a 9.5% pressure rate, but struggled mightily in run defense. With Buckner back, he can play more as a situational pass rusher than an every down option in 2026, which will benefit this defense.

The Colts also took flyers on a trio of interior defenders this off-season, receiving Colby Wooden in a trade from the Packers and signing Jerry Tilley and Derrick Nnadi as free agents. None of them are likely to be effective options. Wooden, a 2023 4th round pick, has struggled as both a pass rusher (5.1% pressure rate) and run defender across 1,077 career snaps. Tillery was a first round pick in 2019 and has had his moments as a pass rusher, but, overall his career 7.1% pressure rate is not enough to make up for his struggles as a run defender and he is now going into his age 30 season. 

Nnadi, meanwhile, was a capable run defender in his prime, but his run defense has declined in recent years and now he is going into his age 30 season. None of the Colts’ three off-season additions are guaranteed a roster spot, though it is likely at least one will have to play at least some snaps in a thin position group. Outside of DeForest Buckner, who has age and injury concerns, this is a very underwhelming position group.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

While most of the Colts’ top defensive players missed significant time with injury last season, one of them, edge defender Laiatu Latu played all but one game and had a breakout season, as the 2024 1st round pick improved on a solid rookie season both as a pass rusher and a run defender, playing at an above average level in both aspects. In total, he had 8.5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 14.0% pressure rate as a pass rusher. Latu is technically a one-year wonder in terms of playing at that level, but he has always had the talent to be a high level edge defender and his career trajectory suggests he will continue playing at a high level going forward.

The rest of this edge defender group has been completely remade since last season. Kwity Paye (721 snaps), Samson Ebukam (416 snaps), and Tyquan Lewis (323 snaps) all played significant snaps at edge defender last season and are no longer with the team. None of them played at higher than an average level, so this isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but it is unclear if their replacements will be significantly better.

Arden Key was signed to a 2-year, 16 million dollar deal in free agency and he figures to be the nominal starter next to Latu. Key has been a solid rotational edge defender over the past four seasons, averaging 38.5 snaps per game and totaling 21 sacks, 33 hits, and a 10.4% pressure rate in 62 games. The concern is he is going into his age 30 season, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decline and he could easily remain at least a decent rotational player. His primary competition for a starting role will be JT Tuimoloau, a 2025 2nd round pick who ranked 5th on the team among edge defenders with 215 snaps played as a rookie, but who has the talent to be at least a decent rotational player. He and Key may largely split snaps.

The Colts also added veteran Micheal Clemons in free agency and rookies George Gumbs and Caden Curry in the 5th and 6th rounds of the draft and they will compete for deep reserve roles. None are likely to have success in that role, however. Both Gumbs and Curry fell to the late rounds of the draft for good reason, while Clemons is a decent run defender, but has a career 6.9% pressure rate in four seasons in the league and is already heading into his age 29 season. Laiatu Latu elevates the overall grade of this position group significantly, but the rest of the bunch is likely to be underwhelming at best and deep reserve depth is a bit of a concern.

Grade: B

Linebackers

Linebacker was a huge position of need for the Colts this off-season. Germaine Pratt, their only capable linebacker last season, was not retained. The Colts also opted to trade away their other starting linebacker Zaire Franklin for salary reasons, although he struggled mightily last season, meaning his loss is likely to be addition by subtraction. However, the Colts’ linebacking corps still remains a weakness. The one veteran addition they made this off-season was Akeem Davis-Gaither, who has mostly been a liability in 6 seasons in the league, on an average of 361 snaps per season with a maximum of 781 snaps per season, which came last season when he was one of the worst starting linebackers in the league with the Cardinals.

Davis-Gaither figures to start in an every down capacity next to second round pick CJ Allen, who was a good value, but could struggle through growing pains in a significant year one role.

For depth, the Colts have 2023 undrafted free agent Austin Ajiake, who has played 157 snaps in his career, 2024 5th round pick Jaylon Carlies, who has played 244 snaps in his career, and 4th round rookie Bryce Boettcher, who would likely struggle in a significant year one role. This group could be a little better than it was last year by default, but it is still likely to be a liability.

Grade: C

Secondary

Cornerback is the position where the Colts figure to benefit the most from better health. Last season, they had 10 different cornerbacks see action for them and almost all of them struggled. This season, with Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward returning, they could have one of the best cornerback duos in the league. Gardner, the 4th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, has been one of the best cornerbacks in the league since entering the league, playing at an above average level in all four seasons in the league and playing at an All-Pro level when he is at his best. 

Gardner will remain in his prime for several more seasons, only in his age 26 season, and, perhaps most importantly, he doesn’t really have a history of injury outside of the 6 games he missed last season, missing a total of 3 games in his first 3 seasons in the league combined. Because Gardner was acquired mid-season, he actually only played 4 games for the Colts last season and I would expect much more out of him in 2026, which will be a huge boost for this secondary and defense overall. He has All-Pro potential in his first full season in Indianapolis.

Ward comes with more concern, as he is now heading into his age 30 season and the concussion injuries that limited him to 7 games last season were serious enough for him to consider retirement this off-season. Between his age and injury history, it is possible Ward declines or misses more time this season. However, he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, playing at an above average level in 2025 for the third time in four seasons, with the exception being a 2024 season in which he was dealing with a serious situation in his personal league. Ward comes with some risk, but he could easily remain an above average cornerback in 2026 and, as far as #2 cornerbacks go, Ward is one of the best in the league.

Mekhi Blackmon actually led all Colts cornerbacks in snaps played last season with 784 and struggled in that role, but he is likely to be no higher than 4th on the depth chart this season. Cam Taylor-Britt was signed from the Bengals this off-season and is expected to be the #3 cornerback, a role he should be decent, but unspectacular in. Blackmon isn’t a bad #4 cornerback and actually showed promise across 434 snaps as a 3rd round rookie in 2023, before missing all of 2024 with a torn ACL and struggling in 2025. His primary competition for the #4 cornerback job is Justin Walley, a 2025 3rd round pick who has potential, but missed his entire rookie season with a torn ACL of his own. Veteran Kenny Moore is also still on the roster, though he is expected to be moved before the start of the season.

Safety Camryn Bynum was the Colts’ best healthy defensive back last season, paying off the 4-year, 60 million dollar deal the Colts signed him to last off-season by playing almost every snap for the Colts last season and providing above average safety play. Bynum has made every start over the past four seasons and has consistently been an average or above average starter. Still only in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from Bynum in 2026.

The other starting safety spot is a big concern though. Nick Cross was a liability in that role last season and, while the Colts moved on from him this off-season, they don’t have an obvious upgrade over him. As of right now, third round rookie AJ Haulcy is probably the most likely starting option and, while he was a great value where he was drafted, he could easily struggle as a rookie starter. His primary competitors for the role are 2025 7th round pick Hunter Wohler, who missed his whole rookie season with a foot injury, and veteran Jonathan Owens, who has started just 35 of 82 games played in his career, has mostly been a liability when he’s played, and is now going into his age 31 season. This is a concern in an otherwise very impressive secondary.

Grade: B+

Kickers

The Colts seemed to find a good kicker in Spencer Shrader, who spent his first season in the league in 2024 with three teams, but added 2.11 points above average in 4 games with those three teams and then he added 1.70 points above average in the first 5 games of the season with the Colts in 2025. However, he then missed the rest of the season with injury and, while he has shown a lot of promise, he has still only played 9 games in his career, so his success has come in a small sample size. 

Shrader could face competition for his job from Blake Grupe, who made all 11 of his field goals and all 10 of his extra points in 5 games with the Colts last season, after the mediocre Michael Badgley originally took over for the injured Shrader, but Grupe previously had made just 69.2% of his field goals with the Saints last season, leading to his release. and, even with an impressive stretch to end last season, he has still cost his teams 8.28 points compared to an average kicker in three seasons in the league. Shrader seems like the best option, but his success has come in a limited sample size and is not guaranteed to continue.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The way the Colts’ 2025 season ended was disappointing and they didn’t have a first round pick to help their roster, but they overall were much better than their final record suggested last season and they will get several key players back from injury this season, particularly on defense, where they needed help the most last season. The Colts should be in the mix for a wild card spot or a division title in an AFC South that is still wide open.

Prediction: 10-7, 1st in AFC South

Miami Dolphins 2026 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2026 NFL Season Previews, Dolphins

Quarterback

Seven years ago, the Dolphins adopted an aggressive rebuilding strategy, sick of middling seasons and having not won a playoff game since 2000. They traded away numerous veterans to try to tank for a high draft pick and a potential young franchise quarterback, and to accumulate future draft picks and cap space to surround that young franchise quarterback with as much talent as possible while he was still on his cheap rookie deal. Unfortunately, while the strategy led to post-season appearances in 2022 and 2023, the Dolphins did not win a playoff game in either season, extending their post-season win drought even further.

The strategy was not a bad idea, but they missed on numerous draft picks and, most importantly, they gave a massive extension to a quarterback who wasn’t worth it. After back-to-back seasons missing the post-season in 2024 and 2025, the Dolphins have decided to go back to square one and rebuild even more aggressively this time around. In total, the Dolphins have an NFL record 179 million in dead cap for 2026 and already 57 million in dead cap for 2027. 

This season, the Dolphins’ active cap spending accounts for only about 42.1% of the total salary cap, leading to a roster that almost entirely consists of players on rookie contracts and veterans on minimum or near minimum contracts. On paper, this looks like one of the worst teams in the NFL in recent memory and the situation is made even worse by the loss of talented offensive playcaller Mike McDaniel as head coach, with defensive minded Jeff Hafley coming with an underwhelming offensive playcaller in Bobby Slowik.

The biggest mistake the Dolphins made in their previous rebuild was the selection of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa with the 5th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft and the subsequent 4-year, 212.4 million dollar extension they gave him to stick around long-term. Tagovailoa had some productive seasons, but his success was largely the result of having an elite offense around him and a great offensive playcaller in Mike McDaniel. 

Last season, with his supporting cast not being what it once was, Tagovailoa completed 67.7% of his passes for an average of 6.93 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. Having seen enough, the Dolphins opted to move on from Tagovailoa this off-season despite his 54 million dollar salary being fully guaranteed because bringing him back would have risked Tagovailoa suffering an injury, which could have guaranteed his 2027 salary as well. 

The one player the Dolphins did spend money on this off-season was their new starting quarterback Malik Willis, who they gave a 3-year, 67.5 million dollar deal with 45 million guaranteed. A third round pick in 2022, Willis entered the league raw and struggled early in his career as a spot starter in Tennessee, leading to him being traded to the Packers for next to nothing two off-seasons ago, but Willis seemingly came into his own in Green Bay, only making three starts as a backup over the past two seasons, but making the most of his opportunities, completing 78.7% of his passes for 10.92 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions, while rushing for 6.21 YPC and 3 touchdowns on 42 carries.

Obviously that is a very limited sample size in a good situation, but if Willis can be even a fraction of that good over a full season, he will at least be a top-32 quarterback in the NFL. In a vacuum, Willis deserves to be a starter and his contract is reasonable, but it doesn’t make a lot of sense for the Dolphins given the current state of the team. Regardless of what Willis does, the Dolphins figure to have a high draft pick in what should be a good quarterback class in 2027 and, with a terrible supporting cast, it will be very difficult to accurately evaluate whether or not Willis is a good enough long-term starter for it to be worth passing on a highly touted quarterback prospect. 

With Willis’ salary guaranteed for 2027, the result could easily be a situation where the Dolphins use a high pick on a quarterback and again are paying a significant guaranteed salary for a quarterback who isn’t starting. The Dolphins probably would have been better off committing even further to the rebuild and starting either a cheap veteran, a rookie, or 2025 7th round pick Quinn Ewers, a developmental backup who showed a little bit of promise down the stretch last season (85.5 QB rating across 83 pass attempts), rather than committing 45 million guaranteed to a quarterback who is unlikely to be a starter for more than one season, a season where the Dolphins are highly unlikely to be competitive either way. 

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

The Dolphins’ receiving corps was the biggest victim of their teardown. A couple years ago, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle were arguably the best wide receiver duo in the league. However, Waddle was traded for a first round pick and a couple mid round picks this off-season, while age, injury, and off-the-field problems led to the Dolphins releasing Hill outright this off-season. In their absence, the Dolphins have easily the worst receiving corps in the league. 

The Dolphins used a trio of draft picks on the position, but none of them were premium picks, with Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell selected in the 3rd round and Kevin Coleman selected in the 5th round. Bell could have been a 1st or 2nd round pick if he didn’t tear his ACL late last season and he is expected to be ready for the start of next season, but he could easily not be 100% in his first season after the injury, especially if he misses most or all of the off-season program and is behind in learning the offense as a result. 

For veteran options, the Dolphins brought in Jalen Tolbert, who has a career 0.97 yards per route run average, Tutu Atwell, who caught 6 passes last season, and Terrace Marshall, who has a career 0.83 yards per route run average and was out of the league last season. The newcomers will compete for roles with the Dolphins’ top holdovers, 2024 6th round pick Malik Washington, who has a career 0.86 yards per route run average, 2024 7th round pick Tahj Washington, who has a career 0.97 yards per route run average, and Theo Wease, a 2025 undrafted free agent with 6 catches as a rookie. None of the Dolphins’ wide receiver options are likely to be much help for new quarterback Malik Willis.

Things aren’t much better at tight end. Greg Dulcich was a 3rd round pick in 2022 and has shown promise with a career 1.35 yards per route run average, but that has come in limited playing time, as he only has 67 catches in four seasons in the league. He is expected to start due to a lack of better options. Ben Sims, a blocking specialist with 11 career catches, was added in free agency, while Will Kacmarek and Seydou Traore were added in the 3rd and 5th round of the draft respectively. They will all compete for roles behind Dulcich. This is one of the worst receiving corps in recent memory.

Grade: C-

Running Backs

One player who survived the Dolphins’ off-season teardown is running back De’Von Achane. That was a bit of a surprise and could prove to not be the right move. Achane only has one year left on his cheap rookie deal and history shows that bad teams that spend big money on running backs tend to regret it. This was also a bad running back draft class and Achane is coming off of an elite season that he probably won’t replicate with a worse supporting cast and without talented offensive playcaller Mike McDaniel, so this is probably the highest Achane’s trade value will ever be.

Achane finished the 2025 season with 5.67 YPC and 8 touchdowns on 238 carries, with a 49.2% carry success rate, 4.11 yards per carry after contact, a 20.6% missed tackle rate, and 1.29 yards per route run, in line with his career averages of 5.64 YPC and 22 touchdowns on 543 carries, with a 50.2% carry success rate, 3.85 yards per carry after contact, a 20.1% missed tackle rate, and 1.33 yards per route run. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see his production drop off significantly in 2026, given the situation around him, but he is still by far the Dolphins’ best offensive playmaker, both on the ground and through the air.

Achane figures to get the vast majority of the touches in the backfield, with Jaylen Wright and Ollie Gordon competing for the #2 job. Wright, a 4th round pick in 2024, has averaged 3.89 YPC, a 45.7% carry success rate, 3.35 yards per carry after contact, and a 21.7% missed tackle rate on 138 career carries, while averaging 0.44 yards per route run through the air. Gordon, a 6th round pick in 2025, has averaged 2.84 YPC, a 45.7% carry success rate, 2.10 yards per carry after contact, and a 14.3% missed tackle rate on 70 career carries, while averaging 0.34 yards per route run through the air. Wright seems like the favorite for the backup job, but it is likely both would see a significant role if Achane misses time, something he has done in two of three seasons in the league. Achane has as much talent as any running back in the league, but could see his production decrease significantly due to the situation around him.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

With needs all over the field, the Dolphins could have gone anywhere with their high draft picks, which included a pair of first round picks following the Jaylen Waddle trade. They opted to use their first pick on the offensive line, taking Kadyn Proctor. Using high draft capital on the offensive line at the start of a rebuild is inherently a good idea, but Proctor is a boom or bust prospect, with elite physical traits, but inconsistent tape and a questionable work ethic. He could prove to be the right pick, but the 12th overall pick was probably a little early to take that kind of risk. Proctor played tackle in college, but the Dolphins are working him out at both tackle and guard. Obviously, he would provide more value long-term if he can develop at tackle, but it remains to be seen if that is where the Dolphins believe he will be at his best long-term. 

Where Proctor plays as a rookie will dictate where Austin Jackson, who has played both guard (13 starts) and tackle (47 starts) in his career, will play in 2026. Jackson is also a former first round pick, back in 2020, but he hasn’t lived up to the billing, providing average at best play and consistently missing time with injury, limited to just 60 starts in 6 seasons in the league. Patrick Paul is probably locked in at left tackle again, with Proctor likely to play right tackle if he doesn’t play guard. A 2nd round pick in 2024, Paul wasn’t great in his first full season as the starting left tackle in 2025 (17 starts), but he wasn’t bad either and he has the upside to take a step forward in his third season in the league in 2026. 

The Dolphins’ best offensive lineman by far is center Aaron Brewer, who played at an All-Pro level last season. It was the best year of Brewer’s career, but not by a lot, so even if he isn’t quite as good in 2026 as he was in 2025, he should remain one of the better centers in the league. Brewer is going into his contract year in 2026 and, while his age isn’t ideal given the long rebuild the Dolphins have in front of them (age 29 in 2026), they should still look to lock him up long-term and keep him around throughout their rebuild to provide a foundation in the trenches.

The fifth and final starting job on this offensive line at guard is probably up for grabs. Jonah Savaiinaea is probably the favorite for the job, but the 2025 2nd round pick was one of the worst guards in the league as a rookie and, even if he improves in 2026, he has a long way to improve to even be an average starter. The biggest reason why he is likely to start is just that the Dolphins don’t have another good option. 

The Dolphins signed veteran Jamaree Salyer in free agency and he has experience at both guard and tackle, with 40 total starts in four seasons in the league, 21 at guard and 19 at tackle, but he has mostly struggled and is best as a versatile reserve. The Dolphins also used a 6th round pick on a guard prospect in DJ Campbell and he could see some starts down the stretch if Savaiinaea struggles, but he is probably not a real contender for the week 1 job and he would likely struggle if he makes starts at any point this season. Compared to a lot of this roster, this offensive line isn’t that bad, but it still looks like a below average group overall.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

The Dolphins’ edge defender room is almost as bad as their receiving corps. Chop Robinson is a former 2024 1st round pick and has upside, but the rest of the group is very underwhelming. Even Robinson is far from a sure thing. He had an impressive rookie season, particularly as a pass rusher, with 6 sacks, 8 hits, and a 16.3% pressure rate, but he dropped off significantly in year two, struggling as both a run defender and a pass rusher, totaling just 4 sacks, 1 hit, and a 7.9% pressure rate. I am not sure why he dropped off so much in year two and it is tough to know what to expect from him in 2026. He has obvious upside, still only in his age 23 season, but he also comes with significant downside.

The rest of the group consists of veteran flyers on cheap contracts and rookies selected with non-premium draft picks. Joshua Uche has upside as a situational pass rusher, with a 15.4% career pressure rate, but his history of injuries and his struggles against the run have led to him playing just 269 snaps per season in six seasons in the league, with a maximum of 373 snaps back in 2022. He could play a career high in snaps in 2026 if he stays relatively healthy, but he is a one dimensional player who could easily be exposed in a larger role.

Other veteran options include free agent additions David Ojabo and Robert Beal and holdover Cameron Goode. Ojabo was a 2nd round pick in 2022, but injuries and ineffective play have limited him to 576 snaps total in 4 seasons in the league. Meanwhile, Beal has played just 292 mediocre snaps in three seasons in the league since being selected in the 5th round in 2023, while Goode has played just 196 mediocre snaps in four seasons in the league since being selected in the 7th round in 2022. The Dolphins also added Trey Moore and Max Llewellyn in the 4th and 7th rounds of the draft respectively, but it is unlikely either will be ready to contribute in a significant positive way in year one. This is a very thin position group full of guys who would not be guaranteed to make most teams’ rosters.

Grade: C

Interior Defenders

Along with Chop Robinson, the Dolphins have another recent first round pick on the defensive line, defensive tackle Kenneth Grant, who was selected in 2025. Grant had an underwhelming rookie year across 554 snaps, posting decent pass rush numbers, 2 sacks, 4 hits, and a 8.7% pressure rate, but struggling against the run. He has the upside to be a lot better in year two, but his career is not off to a great start, which is a concern for a team that is trying to build around young players.

Grant will continue starting next to veteran Zach Sieler. Sieler was an above average player as a pass rusher and a run defender in his prime, but he was just an average starter in 2025 and, now going into his age 31 season, it seems likely that his best days are behind him. After totaling 23.5 sacks, 25 hits, and a 8.7% pressure rate in 49 games from 2022-2024, Sieler had just 5.5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 6.8% pressure rate in 17 games in 2025 and his run defense declined as well. He could remain a capable starter for at least another season, but it seems unlikely he will bounce back to his prime form and he could decline further.

The Dolphins also used 5th and 7th round picks on interior defenders in the 2025 NFL Draft and those two players, Jordan Phillips and Zeek Biggers, figure to be their top reserves at the position this season. Both are underwhelming options who didn’t show much promise across snap counts of 465 and 214 respectively as rookies. Even as reserves, they could easily prove to be liabilities. This position group isn’t as bad as some of the Dolphins’ others, but it is an underwhelming group at best.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

The Dolphins’ linebacking corps is the relative strength of this defense. Top linebacker Jordyn Brooks has his issues in coverage, but he is an above average run defender and has been for several seasons. Still in his prime in his age 29 season, I would expect a similar season from him in 2026. Tyrel Dodson struggled as the other starter last season, but the Dolphins used a second round pick on Jacob Rodriguez, who is probably going to start instead of Dodson this season. Rodriguez could have some growing pains as a rookie, but will likely be an upgrade even as a rookie.

Dobson is still on the roster and could retain his starting job, but if that happens that will likely say more about Rodriguez being behind in his development than anything positive about Dobson, who has mostly been a liability as a starter in his career. The Dolphins also used a 4th round pick on Kyle Louis, who is a good developmental option and will provide depth in the short-term. Willie Gay and Ronnie Harrison are also on the roster as potential reserve options. Both have experience as starters, but are best as reserves and are not locks to make the final roster. This isn’t a great group or anything, but it is much more complete than most position groups on the Dolphins’ roster.

Grade: B

Secondary

The Dolphins used their other first round pick, the one they acquired in the Jaylen Waddle trade, on cornerback Chris Johnson. Johnson will probably be the Dolphins’ best cornerback as a rookie and, while he definitely has the upside to be an above average starter long-term, Johnson being the Dolphins’ #1 cornerback as a rookie says more about the rest of their cornerback room than it does about Johnson’s NFL readiness, as he could struggle through some growing pains as a rookie.

JuJu Brents is probably penciled in as the #2 cornerback and at least he has some upside too, but he also comes with downside as well. Originally a second round pick by the Colts in 2023, Brents came into the league with a lot of upside and was decent as a rookie across 497 snaps, but a knee injury ended his second season in the league after just 68 snaps and then he was released by the Colts ahead of final cuts last off-season. 

The Dolphins claimed him off waivers following his release and he showed a lot of potential when he finally got his shot, but a foot injury again ended his season after a very limited sample size, as he played just 110 snaps total. Brents is still only going into his age 26 season and has obvious talent, but it is tough to project a player whose success has come in a limited sample size and who has now had major leg injuries in back-to-back seasons. He is worth a shot as a starter, but he probably wouldn’t be a starter for most teams.

Jason Marshall, a 2025 5th round pick, is the Dolphins’ top returning cornerback in terms of snaps played last season, but he played just 243 snaps and struggled in that limited action. He will face competition for the #3 cornerback role from Storm Duck, a 2024 undrafted free agent who has struggled across 403 career snaps, and free agent addition Darrell Baker, who has averaged 606 snaps per season over the past three seasons, but has mostly struggled. 

Things are even worse at safety. The Dolphins top-3 safeties in terms of snaps played last season, Minkah Fitzpatrick (845 snaps), Ashtyn Davis (713 snaps), and Ifeatu Melifonwu (549 snaps), are no longer with the team, leaving Dante Trader, a 2025 5th round pick who was mediocre in 420 snaps as a rookie, as one starter, with the other starting spot going to either 5th round rookie Michael Taaffe or veteran free agent addition Lonnie Johnson, who has played just 622 snaps over the past four seasons combined and now is going into his age 31 season and coming off of a terrible season across 321 snaps. This secondary figures to be one of the worst in the league.

Grade: C-

Kicker

The Dolphins were expecting their starting kicker in 2025 to be veteran Jason Sanders, who had been in the role since his rookie season in 2018, but Sanders missed the whole season with injury, leaving to job to journeyman Riley Patterson, who had kicked for five different teams in the previous four seasons, while accounting for 2.26 points below average. However, Patterson did well in his first season in Miami, accounting for 5.56 points above average. With Sanders no longer with the team, the Dolphins brought in another veteran journeyman, Zane Gonzalez, to compete with Patterson for the job, but Gonzalez has accounted for 4.34 points below average in his career, so Patterson should be considered the favorite for the job.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Dolphins are clearly taking a long-term approach, as evidenced by the fact that more than half of their cap space is dedicated to dead money for players no longer on the team. The result is a roster that almost entirely consists of players on rookie deals and bottom of the roster veteran talents on cheap contracts. On paper, the Dolphins look like one of the worst teams in recent memory and seem very unlikely to win more than a few games. They should be among the teams in competition for the #1 overall pick.

Prediction: 2-15, 4th in AFC East

2026 NFL Mock Draft

stevenlourie 2026 NFL Mock Draft

Updated 4/22/26

1. Las Vegas Raiders – QB Fernando Mendoza (Indiana)

It seems likely that the intrigue in this draft won’t start until the second pick, as the Raiders need a quarterback and Fernando Mendoza is by far the best quarterback available.

2. New York Jets – DE David Bailey (Texas Tech)

The Jets might have hinted at their intentions with this pick by trading Jermaine Johnson instead of extending him ahead of the final year of his contract, freeing up a spot for a premium edge rusher. The free agent signings of Joseph Ossai and Kingsley Enagbare probably don’t preclude the Jets from using this pick on an edge defender because they are rotational players. David Bailey and Arvell Reese are both strong options, but rumors are the Jets prefer Bailey a little more.

3. Kansas City Chiefs (TRADE) – DE Arvell Reese (Ohio State)

This pick is likely to be whoever of Arvell Reese or David Bailey don’t go to the Jets at 2, but who is picking here is the question. Reese and Bailey wouldn’t fill big needs for the Cardinals, who desperately need a right tackle and reportedly would love to trade down, even at a discount. The Chiefs, meanwhile, would love to move up and grab either Reese or Bailey. If the Chiefs can get this done without giving up their other first round pick (29) and instead give up their second round pick (40), I think this trade will happen. The Cardinals would be losing significant value on the trade value chart by doing this, but it may be their best option if they really want to move down.

4. Tennessee Titans – RB Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame)

The Titans’ biggest need is edge defender, but if both Arvell Reese and David Bailey are off the board, the Titans may just take the best available player, which could easily be Jeremiyah Love. He would be a significant upgrade over Tony Pollard, whose release would save the Titans 7.25 million.

5. New York Giants – LB Sonny Styles (Ohio State)

With the Giants acquiring the 10th overall pick by trading Dexter Lawrence to the Bengals, the Giants can now draft the best available player at 5 and focus on bigger needs at 10, where the players that are good fits in that range better fit their needs. The Giants signed Tremaine Edmunds to replace Bobby Okereke in free agency, but I don’t think that precludes the Giants from using this pick on Sonny Styles, who can start next to Edmunds and has a much higher upside than Edmunds.

6. Dallas Cowboys (TRADE) – S Caleb Downs (Ohio State)

The Browns are looking to trade down, which makes sense, because they can address their pressing needs at left tackle and wide receiver later in the first round. Meanwhile, the Cowboys, who have extra draft capital from the Micah Parsons, are looking to move up to secure a defensive player who won’t fall to them at 12. The Cowboys can trade 12 and 20 for 6 and the Browns’ second round pick at 39 in a fair trade that would benefit both teams. Downs is an elite safety prospect who would be a massive upgrade at a position of weakness. Rueben Bain is another option, but the Cowboys are in better shape at defensive end than safety.

7. Washington Commanders – WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State)

The Commanders depth chart at wide receiver is pretty bare behind Terry McLaurin, who is heading into his age 31 season. Tate could be a short-term #2 wide receiver and a long-term #1 wide receiver for Jayden Daniels.

8. New Orleans Saints – DE Reuben Bain (Miami)

The Saints are in a good position because their biggest needs are edge defender and wide receiver and they will likely have either Carnell Tate or one of the top-3 edge defenders available to them when they draft. In this case, it is Rueben Bain who is available and the obvious choice. He would be a big upgrade for a Saints team that is thin at the edge defender position because they did not retain veteran Cameron Jordan this off-season.

9. Arizona Cardinals (TRADE) – OT Francis Mauigoa (Miami)

Mauigoa would be a reach at 3, but he would fill a huge need for the Cardinals in a big way as the draft’s top right tackle prospect. In this scenario, the Cardinals get him at 9 and pick up an extra second round pick in the process.

10. New York Giants – WR Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State)

As I mentioned earlier, the players who fit the draft range at 10 better match the Giants needs than the players who fit at 5. Jordyn Tyson would give the Giants a much needed wide receiver, with Wan’Dale Robinson leaving in free agency and Malik Nabers coming off of a major knee injury.

11. Detroit Lions (TRADE) – OT Spencer Fano (Utah)

The Dolphins might not seem like a strong candidate to move down, considering they already have an extra first round pick, as well as four picks in the third round, but they have a ton of needs and need all the draft capital they can get, so if can move down a few spots in the first round and turn one of those third round picks into a second round pick, that might be worth it for them. The Lions, meanwhile, will likely want to move up to secure their preferred offensive tackle.

12. Cleveland Browns (TRADE) – OT Monroe Freeling (Georgia)

Freeling is the best true left tackle in the draft, but is unlikely to go in the top-10 because he was only a one-year starter in college. If the Browns move down, he would make a lot of sense for them because they are desperate for help at the left tackle position.

13. Los Angeles Rams – WR Makai Lemon (USC)

Davante Adams had a great season in 2025, but he’s going into his age 34 season and a contract year in 2026. Lemon would give them a better #3 wide receiver in the short-term and a potential long-term replacement for Adams as the #2 receiver.

14. Baltimore Ravens – G Vega Ioane (Penn State)

The Ravens guards were a weakness last season and they will be even further exposed in 2026 without center Tyler Linderbaum in between them. Ioane is the best pure guard prospect in the draft and would be a massive upgrade for the run-heavy Ravens offense.

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – CB Mansoor Delane (LSU)

Cornerback isn’t the Buccaneers’ biggest need, but Delane is too good to pass on at this point. He could easily go earlier than this, but I couldn’t find a good spot for him. The Buccaneers might be his floor and they would be very happy to have a future #1 cornerback, which they probably don’t have on their roster right now.

16. New York Jets – WR Omar Cooper (Indiana)

The Jets were led in receiving last season by Garrett Wilson, who missed most of the season with injury and totalled just 395 receiving yards. The Jets need to invest in a better second option in the passing game.

17. Miami Dolphins (TRADE) – WR KC Concepcion (Texas A&M)

The Dolphins had a desperate need at wide receiver even before trading Jaylen Waddle. Now it’s their biggest need, despite massive needs across the roster. With Carnell Tate and Jordyn Tyson off the board at 10, it would make sense for the Dolphins to add some extra draft capital and take a wide receiver like KC Concepcion a few picks later.

18. Minnesota Vikings – S Dillon Thieneman (Oregon)

The Vikings like to use three safeties on the field at the same time in sub packages, but they are thin at the position with Harrison Smith expected to retire. Thieneman is a strong fit if he is on the board at 18.

19. Carolina Panthers – TE Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon)

The Panthers somehow haven’t had a tight end with over 400 receiving yards since Greg Olsen in 2016. They could look for one early in the draft to give Bryce Young a much needed weapon over the middle.

20. Cleveland Browns (TRADE) – WR Denzel Boston (Washington)

Along with left tackle, wide receiver is a massive need for the Browns in the first round. If they navigate the first round correctly, they can get a left tackle and a wide receiver prospect they are happy with and pick up some additional draft capital in the process.

21. Pittsburgh Steelers – OT Kadyn Proctor (Alabama)

Broderick Jones was drafted in the first round in 2026 to be the Steelers’ long-term left tackle, but that didn’t work out, as Jones has struggled throughout his three seasons in the league and now enters his fourth season in the league with an uncertain future due to a neck injury. The Steelers could look for a new left tackle early in this year’s draft.

22. Los Angeles Chargers – DE Keldric Faulk (Auburn)

The Chargers brought back Khalil Mack this off-season, but he is going into his age 35 season. Meanwhile, their other free agent edge defender, Odafe Oweh, was not retained this off-season.

23. Philadelphia Eagles – DE Akheem Mesidor (Miami)

The Eagles signed Arnold Ebeketie in free agency to replace Jaelan Phillips, but he was only signed to a one-year deal and they could still use more depth at the position.

24. Cleveland Browns – S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (Toledo)

The Browns need a better fifth defensive back in sub packages. The Browns could target a cornerback, but McNeil-Warren is a better value at this point than any cornerback and he would give them insurance if they aren’t able to extend Ronnie Hickman, who is going into a contract year.

25. Chicago Bears – DT Peter Woods (Clemson)

The Bears signed Grady Jarrett in free agency last year, but he was a disappointment and he is now going into his age 33 season. He has too much guaranteed money left on his contract for the Bears to move on from him this off-season, but they need a long-term replacement who can reduce Jarrett’s role in the short-term.

26. Arizona Cardinals (TRADE) – QB Ty Simpson (Alabama)

The Cardinals need a quarterback of the future and seem very interested in Ty Simpson. They would probably need to move up into the late first round to secure him and perhaps pay a premium to do, but taking Simpson in the first round would give them the benefit of getting an extra year on his rookie deal and the Cardinals can afford to give up their third round pick to get this deal done, given that they got an extra second round pick from the Chiefs in their earlier draft. The Bills, meanwhile, are without a second round pick from the DJ Moore trade and would probably like to grab an early third round pick in exchange for moving back a few spots.

27. San Francisco 49ers – OT Caleb Lomu (Utah)

It sounds like Trent Williams will be back with the 49ers in 2026, but they have to be thinking about the future of the left tackle position, with Williams going into his age 38 season. Lomu could be their long-term left tackle of the future and, in the short-term, he could fill a hole at left guard.

28. Houston Texans – DT Kayden McDonald (Ohio State)

The Texans kept Sheldon Rankins in free agency, but they did not keep Tim Settle, so defensive tackle should be an early target position for them, especially given that Rankins is going into his age 32 season.

29. Kansas City Chiefs – CB Jermod McCoy (Tennessee)

Injury concerns seem likely to push Jermod McCoy, a top-10 talent, down the board, perhaps out of the first round entirely, but the reward seems worth the risk for the Chiefs at this stage. The Chiefs lost both Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson this off-season, so they will need to add a young cornerback at some point relatively early in the draft.

30. Miami Dolphins – OT Max Iheanchor (Arizona State)

Right tackle Austin Jackson misses a lot of time with injury, missing 38 games over the past four seasons combined, and even when he is on the field he could be upgraded. He could also move to guard and be an upgrade there if the Dolphins take an early round tackle.

31. New England Patriots – OT Blake Miller (Clemson)

The Patriots need a long-term right tackle, with Morgan Moses set to go into his age 35 season. Miller could also provide depth at left tackle and guard.

32. Dallas Cowboys (TRADE) – LB CJ Allen (Georgia)

The Seahawks only have four picks in this draft and are known to be very interested in moving out of the first round to add extra picks. The Cowboys, meanwhile, could move back up into the first round with the second round pick they got in their trade with Cleveland to secure a much needed linebacker prospect in CJ Allen. With three picks in the fifth round, it would make sense for the Cowboys to trade a fourth and a fifth round pick to Seattle to get this trade down, which the Seahawks would likely be happy to take.

33. New York Jets – CB Avieon Terrell (Clemson)

The Jets’ cornerbacks really struggled last season after trading Sauce Gardner. They added Nahshon Wright in free agency, but he isn’t a huge upgrade and he was only signed to a one-year deal.

34. Buffalo Bills (TRADE) – DE TJ Parker (Clemson)

The Bills signed Bradley Chubb to play opposite Greg Rousseau, but Chubb has an extensive injury history and their depth is lacking at the defensive end position.

35. Tennessee Titans – DE Cashius Howell (Texas A&M)

The Titans traded for Jermaine Johnson this off-season, but they needed to add at least two new edge defenders this off-season, so they will probably add another one early in the draft.

36. Las Vegas Raiders – WR Chris Bell (Louisville)

Most teams that take a quarterback in the first round use their next pick on another offensive player and the Raiders badly need a potential #1 wide receiver.

37. New York Giants – DT Caleb Banks (Florida)

Defensive tackle is arguably the Giants’ biggest need, especially after trading Dexter Lawrence, but there isn’t one worth taking at 5. Instead, they can target defensive tackle help in the second round.

38. Houston Texans – G Chase Bisontis (Texas A&M)

The Texans added Wyatt Teller, Braden Smith, and Evan Brown in free agency to try to improve their offensive line, which has been a liability for years, but those three are all on the wrong side of 30 so the Texans will still likely add a young offensive lineman at some point in the draft. A versatile option like Bisontis would make sense at this point.

39. Seattle Seahawks (TRADE) – CB Colton Hood (Tennessee)

The Seahawks don’t have a lot of needs, but Tariq Woolen left as a free agent this off-season. They did re-sign Josh Jobe, but he is better as depth than as a starter. Hood would be an option for the Seahawks at 32 and would be a good value after a trade down.

40. Arizona Cardinals (TRADE) – DT Christen Miller (Georgia)

The Cardinals used their last two first round picks on defensive tackles in Darius Robinson and Walter Nolen, but Robinson has been a massive bust thus far, causing the Cardinals to rely on aging veterans Dalvin Tomlinson and Calais Campbell last season, neither of whom were retained this off-season. They should use another early pick on the position.

41. Cincinnati Bengals – CB Chris Johnson (San Diego State)

Cam Taylor-Britt left as a free agent and the Bengals should take this opportunity to find an upgrade at the outside cornerback spot for a defense that has consistently been one of the worst in the league over the past few seasons.

42. New Orleans Saints – G Emmanuel Pregnon (Oregon)

The Saints could upgrade on Cesar Ruiz at right guard and would save a lot of money by releasing him. Pregnon could be an immediate upgrade at a much cheaper price.

43. Miami Dolphins – DE Zion Young (Missouri)

Edge defender is another big need for the Dolphins, who have little on the depth chart behind Chop Robinson and the injury prone Josh Uche, who was only signed to a cheap one-year deal this off-season.

44. New York Jets – RB Jadarian Price (Notre Dame)

The Jets franchise tagged Breece Hall, but they might not be able to reach a long-term agreement with him. With four picks in the first two rounds, they could look to the draft for insurance and another running back to pair with Hall in the short-term.

45. Baltimore Ravens – TE Eli Stowers (Vanderbilt)

The Ravens love running two tight end sets and are now thin at the position after losing Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar in free agency. They could look for a new #2 tight end in free agency and a potential long-term successor to Mark Andrews, who is going into his age 31 season and had a down year in 2025.

46. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DE Malachi Lawrence (UCF)

The Buccaneers signed Haason Reddick to a one-year deal in free agency last off-season to upgrade their edge rush, but he didn’t do much and is now a free agent who is going into his age 32 season. The Buccaneers will need to find another option this off-season. They signed Al-Quadin Muhammad, who had a good season last year, but he is going into his age 31 season with an inconsistent history.

47. Indianapolis Colts – LB Jacob Rodriguez (Texas Tech)

The Colts have one of the thinnest linebacking corps in the league after trading away Zaire Franklin. They don’t have a first round pick, but they could still find an every down starting option in the second round.

48. Atlanta Falcons – CB Brandon Cisse (South Carolina)

Mike Hughes is a liability at cornerback opposite AJ Terrell, so the Falcons could target an upgrade with their second round pick.

49. Minnesota Vikings – DT Lee Hunter (Texas Tech)

The Vikings released both of their aging defensive tackles, Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave, in a cost saving move and now are thin at the defensive tackle position.

50. Miami Dolphins (TRADE) – CB D’Angelo Ponds (Indiana)

The Dolphins entered the 2025 season with one of the worst cornerback rooms in the league. Free agent signing Rasul Douglas proved to be a decent option, but he was on a one-year deal and has not been brought back this off-season. Even if he returns, the Dolphins don’t have much else at the position and Douglas is not a long-term solution anyway, going into his age 31 season.

51. Carolina Panthers – S Treydan Stukes (Arizona)

Tre’von Moehrig was a great free agent addition last off-season, but Nick Scott was underwhelming as the starting safety opposite him and is now going into his age 31 season, so they could look for a higher upside option in the draft.

52. Green Bay Packers – DE R Mason Thomas (Oklahoma)

The Packers are thin at the edge defender position after losing Rashan Gary and Kingsley Enagbare this off-season, which is especially a concern with Micah Parsons coming off of a torn ACL.

53. Pittsburgh Steelers – WR Germie Bernard (Alabama)

Michael Pittman is a huge upgrade as the Steelers’ new #2 receiver, but the Steelers are still very thin behind Pittman and DK Metcalf, so they could still use a relatively early draft pick on another receiver.

54. Philadelphia Eagles – OT Gennings Dunker (Iowa)

Lane Johnson is going into his age 36 season and this could be his final season. The Eagles could look to the draft for his long-term replacement.

55. Los Angeles Chargers – G Keylan Rutledge (Georgia Tech)

The Chargers’ offensive line will be better next season when Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater return from injury, but they still have a massive need at guard that they could address early in the draft.

56. Jacksonville Jaguars – LB Anthony Hill (Texas)

The Jaguars didn’t really replace Devin Lloyd this off-season, so they could look to the draft for another linebacker.

57. Chicago Bears – DE Gabe Jacas (Illinois)

The Bears edge rusher room is pretty thin after Montez Sweat. No one else had more than 4.5 sacks in 2025. The Bears tried to trade for Maxx Crosby and, if a trade does not materialize before the draft, expect them to use an early pick on the position.

58. San Francisco 49ers – WR Chris Brazzell (Tennessee)

The 49ers added Mike Evans and Christian Kirk in free agency, but both are on the wrong side of 30. Including DeMarcus Robinson, three of their top-4 wide receivers are 30 or older, so they could add another young wide receiver through the draft.

59. Houston Texans – DE Derrick Moore (Michigan)

Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson are arguably the best edge defender duo in the league, but they lack depth behind them, which is especially a concern with Hunter going into his age 32 season.

60. Chicago Bears – S AJ Haulcy (LSU)

Both of the Bears’ starting safeties are free agents this off-season, so it is likely the Bears will need to look to the draft for at least one new starting safety.

61. Los Angeles Rams – CB Keionte Scott (Miami)

The Rams added two big upgrades at cornerback this off-season in Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, but they could add a new third cornerback to their overhauled cornerback room.

62. Denver Broncos – LB Jake Golday (Cincinnati)

The Broncos kept Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad in free agency this off-season, but they released the injury prone Dre Greenlaw, so they could still be targeting a linebacker early in the draft. Both Singleton and Strnad are on the wrong side of 30 and Golday has the upside to be much better than both of them.

63. New England Patriots – TE Max Klare (Ohio State)

The Patriots did not retain Austin Hooper this off-season, leaving them in need of a new #2 tight end, while #1 tight end Hunter Henry is going into his age 32 season, leaving the Patriots in need of a long-term #1 tight end.

64. Seattle Seahawks – RB Mike Washington (Arkansas)

With Kenneth Walker gone and Zach Charbonnet rehabbing a torn ACL that is likely to cost him much of the 2026 season, the Seahawks will be looking to add to their backfield relatively early in the draft.

65. Buffalo Bills (TRADE) – LB Josiah Trotter (Missouri)

I don’t have time to do a third round, but I figured I would throw this one in here to tie off the Bills/Cardinals trade from earlier. Linebacker has been a position of weakness for the Bills in recent years due to Matt Milano’s injuries and Milano is now not even on the roster. This could address this need early in the draft.

2026 Top-30 Unrestricted Free Agents

stevenlourie Uncategorized

1. LB Devin Lloyd

A first round pick in 2022, Lloyd has developed into one of the best all-around off ball linebackers in the league. The franchise tag value for linebackers includes rush linebackers and, as a result, is cost prohibitive for off ball linebackers (around 26.9 million), but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Lloyd surpass Fred Warner’s 21 million annually and become the highest paid off ball linebacker in the league.

Prediction: 4 years, 80 million, 45 million guaranteed with Las Vegas Raiders

2. RB Kenneth Walker

One of the most elusive and hard to tackle running backs in the league, Walker has a career missed tackle rate of 27.0%, while averaging 3.03 yards per carry after contact. He has been held back by poor run blocking for much of his four years in Seattle, but, unsurprisingly, he averaged 4.6 yards per carry in each of his two seasons with adequate blocking (2022 and 2025). His pass protection leaves something to be desired, but he can make plays as a receiver as well, averaging 1.16 yards per route run for his career, including a career best 1.44 in 2025. 

He has had some durability issues and the Seahawks have preferred to use him in a heavy rotation with Zach Charbonnet, so he has just 821 regular season carries in four seasons in the league, but he showed his feature back potential in the post-season this year after Charbonnet got hurt, averaging 4.82 YPC on 65 carries in three games, en route to winning Super Bowl MVP, so he figures to get paid heavily by a team that envisions him as a true feature back. The Seahawks could have franchise tagged him for about 14.3 million, but probably don’t value him as much as other running back needy teams will.

Prediction: 3 years, 42 million, 30 million guaranteed with Kansas City Chiefs

3. WR Alec Pierce

A workout wonder in the pre-draft process, Pierce entered the league as a raw prospect, but has improved in every season in the league, culminating in his first 1000+ yard season in 2025. Capable of drawing double teams deep and still making plays, Pierce has averaged over 20 yards per catch in each of the past two seasons and has still managed a 54.9% catch rate, despite inconsistent quarterback play and his high average depth of target. Only going into his age 26 season, Pierce’s best years may still be ahead of him and he figures to get paid heavily by someone who bets on continued development.

Prediction: 4 years, 110 million, 60 million guaranteed with New England Patriots

4. DE Trey Hendrickson

Based on his 2025 salary, Hendrickson would have made 30.2 million on the franchise tag this year, making him the 8th highest paid edge defender in terms of annual salary, which the Bengals saw as cost prohibitive. Hendrickson would be worth that kind of contract if he was still in his prime, but he heads into his age 32 season in 2026. Hendrickson hasn’t really showed signs of slowing down yet and is one of the most productive edge rushers in the league over the past several seasons, totaling the 3rd most sacks in the league since 2020 at 74.5, while adding 79 quarterback hits and a 15.7% pressure rate in 88 games over that stretch, but his age is a complicating factor when determining long-term guarantees. It’s also worth noting that he leaves something to be desired as a run defender and that he missed 10 games with injury last season.

Prediction: 3 years, 84 million, 40 million guaranteed with Dallas Cowboys

5. CB Eric Stokes

A first round pick in 2021, Stokes has always flashed talent, but injuries limited him to 587 snaps total in 2022 and 2023 combined and, upon his return in 2024, he had lost his starting job and played just 587 snaps, despite being healthy enough to play all 17 games. Stokes played pretty well in 2024 though and, after signing a one-year prove it deal with the Raiders last off-season, he took things to another level in 2025, starting all 16 games he played and leading the league in coverage snaps per completion, allowing just 28 completions for 261 yards all season. Still only going into his age 27 season, Stokes’ injury history will likely be priced into his next contract, but if he can continue staying healthy, he could be a steal for a team that needs cornerback help.

Prediction: 3 years, 48 million, 30 million guaranteed with Pittsburgh Steelers

6. C Tyler Linderbaum

Linderbaum is an elite center, but hits the open market because the franchise tag for offensive linemen is based on the top salaries of offensive tackles, making it cost prohibitive for teams to tag interior linemen. Linderbaum isn’t worth the franchise tag value of around 25.8 million, but figures to exceed the 18 million annually that Creed Humphrey makes as the highest paid center in the league.

Prediction: 4 years, 84 million, 46 million guaranteed with Las Vegas Raiders

7. CB Jaylen Watson

Despite only being a 7th round pick in 2022, Watson showed promise across 440 snaps as a reserve in 2023 and in six games as a starter in an injury shortened season in 2024, before breaking out as a season-long starter in 2025, allowing 59.3% completion and no touchdowns on 59 pass attempts. Despite only one full season as a starter, Watson figures to be highly valued on the open market, given the positional value of cornerbacks.

Prediction: 3 years, 54 million, 40 million guaranteed with Las Vegas Raiders

8. DE Jaelan Phillips

A first round pick in 2021, Phillips looked on his way to stardom early in his career, totaling 22 sacks, 32 quarterback hits, and a 12.5% pressure rate in 42 games in his first three seasons in the league, but he tore his achilles late in the 2023 season, subsequently suffered another knee injury in 2024 that cost him most of the season, and did not seem to be the same player upon his return in 2025, leading to the Dolphins trading him to the Eagles for a third round pick at the trade deadline, rather than extending him ahead of his pending free agency this off-season. 

Phillips started to show his old form down the stretch with the Eagles though and, despite a slow start, finished the 2025 season with 5 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, and a 17.7% pressure rate, while playing all 17 games. Phillips’ injury history will probably be priced into his next contract, but he’s still only going into his age 27 season and could prove to be a steal for a pass rush needy team if he can prove his injury history is a fluke rather than a long-term concern.

Prediction: 4 years, 90 million, 50 million guaranteed with Tennessee Titans

9. QB Malik Willis

A third round pick in 2022, Willis entered the league raw and struggled early in his career as a spot starter in Tennessee, leading to him being traded to the Packers for next to nothing two off-seasons ago, but Willis has seemingly come into his own in Green Bay, only making three starts as a backup over the past two seasons, but making the most of his opportunities, completing 78.7% of his passes for 10.92 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions, while rushing for 6.21 YPC and 3 touchdowns on 42 carries. With limited quarterback options available to teams this off-season, Willis will likely get a shot to start somewhere in 2026. He’s still pretty unproven, but comes with a lot of upside.

Prediction: 3 years, 75 million, 30 million guaranteed with Miami Dolphins

10. DT John Franklin-Myers

An underrated part of dominant defenses with the Jets and Broncos in recent years, Franklin-Myers is a versatile defensive lineman capable of rushing the passer from the inside and the edge and he is a solid run defender as well. He has a career pressure rate of 12.9% in four seasons in which he was primarily used as an edge rusher and a career 13.0% pressure rate in three seasons in which he was primarily used as an interior rusher. He’s going into his age 30 season, which will likely affect his long-term guarantees a little, but he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down yet and could easily have at least another couple solid seasons left in the tank.

Prediction: 3 years, 45 million, 20 million guaranteed with Tennessee Titans

11. OT Rasheed Walker

Walker leaves something to be desired as a run blocker, but he is an effective pass protector who is responsible for allowing just 14 sacks and 4 quarterback hits in 48 games over the past three seasons. Given how valuable pass protectors who can play the blindside are, Walker likely would have been franchise tagged this off-season if not for the Packers’ cap issues. He figures to be paid highly on the open market, given how difficult it is to find left tackles of Walker’s caliber.

Prediction: 4 years, 100 million, 55 million guaranteed with Pittsburgh Steelers

12. LB Demario Davis

Davis has had a borderline Hall of Fame caliber career, with five All-Pro team appearances, and, despite going into his age 37 season, he hasn’t really shown many signs of decline and was still one of the best off ball linebackers in the league last season. There is obviously a risk of a significant drop off in 2026, but that will be priced into his contract value and, if he doesn’t drop off significantly, he could prove to be a steal for a team in need of linebacker help. He figures to get a similar deal to the 1-year, 9 million dollar deal Bobby Wagner got from the Commanders last off-season.

Prediction: 1 year, 10 million, 8 million guaranteed with Buffalo Bills

13. CB Jamel Dean

Dean has been a consistently above average cornerback throughout his 7-year career. The concerns are that he is going into his age 30 season and consistently misses time with injury, maxing out at 884 snaps and 15 games in a season in his career.

Prediction: 3 years, 48 million, 30 million guaranteed with Tennessee Titans

14. DE Odafe Oweh

A first round pick in 2021, Oweh got off to a somewhat slow start to his career, but he has developed into an above average pass rusher, with 22.5 sacks, 31 quarterback hits, and a 13.0% pressure rate in 47 games over the past three seasons. After a slow start to the 2025 season, Oweh was traded from the Ravens to the Chargers rather than being extended ahead of his pending free agency, but he quickly bounced back with his new team. He’s not a true top tier edge defender, but he’s an above average player who could help a lot of teams and, given the constant demand for edge rush talent in the NFL, Oweh could be paid pretty highly this off-season.

Prediction: 3 years, 72 million, 45 million guaranteed with Los Angeles Chargers

15. S Bryan Cook

A second round pick in 2022, Cook took a big step forward in his fourth year in the league in 2025, after previously being a marginal starter. He’s only a one-year wonder in terms of playing at that level, but he’s also only going into his age 27 season and will likely be paid well by a team that believes he has permanently turned a corner and, as a result, will remain an above average starter going forward.

Prediction: 4 years, 68 million, 35 million guaranteed with Cincinnati Bengals

16. LB Leo Chenal 

One of the best run stopping linebackers in the league, Chenal isn’t bad in coverage either. He has never played more than 31.4 snaps per game in a season since being selected by the Chiefs in the 3rd round in 2022, but that is largely due to having two good every down linebackers on the roster with him in Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill. Only going into his age 26 season, Chenal will likely be paid by a team who views him as having the upside to be an above average every down linebacker.

Prediction: 3 years, 33 million, 23 million guaranteed with Dallas Cowboys

17. DT Sheldon Rankins

Rankins has been a consistently above average interior defender throughout his career. He’s now going into his age 32 season, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, as his 2025 season was in line with how he’s played throughout his career. He finished last season with 3 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and a 9.2% pressure rate, while playing the run at a high level and playing 623 snaps total. 

Prediction: 3 years, 36 million, 20 million guaranteed with Houston Texans

18. DT Tim Settle

A 5th round pick in 2018, Settle has developed into an above average interior defender who excels as a pass rusher and holds his own as a run defender as well. In 2024, he played a career high 625 snaps and totaled 5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 9.4% pressure rate, all of which set or tied his career high, and he was on his way to a similar season in 2025 before missing the final five games of the season with a foot injury. If he is healthy, he should be paid well on the open market, still only going into his age 29 season.

Prediction: 3 years, 36 million, 25 million guaranteed with Cincinnati Bengals

19. DE Khalil Mack

A future Hall of Famer, Mack is going into his age 35 season, but he hasn’t really dropped off much, totaling 5.5 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and a 14.8% pressure rate in 12 games last season, while playing at a high level against the run. There is a risk that he drops off significantly in 2026, but he is still a worthwhile addition on a short-term deal for teams in need of edge help.

Prediction: 1 year, 20 million, 15 million guaranteed with Los Angeles Chargers

20. WR Jauan Jennings

A sparingly used wide receiver over the first four seasons of his career, Jennings was forced into a larger role in 2024 when the 49ers had many wide receiver injuries and, in his first significant role, he finished with a 77/975/6 slash line and 2.26 yards per route run, more than doubling his yardage total from his first four seasons combined (963). Jennings was not as good in 2025, with a 55/643/9 slash line and 1.39 yards per route run, but he played through a lot of injuries early in the season and got better as the year went on. He’s not a true #1 wide receiver, but he would upgrade a lot of receiving corps and figures to be in high demand this off-season.

Prediction: 3 years, 60 million, 42 million guaranteed with Washington Commanders

21. WR Romeo Doubs

Doubs has never surpassed 724 receiving yards in a season, but that came on just 85 targets last season and he ranked 25th among wide receivers who had at least 75 targets with an average of 1.73 yards per route run and 8th with an average depth of target of 13.2. Still only going into his age 26 season, it’s conceivable he could be much more productive in a larger role elsewhere, instead of playing on a Packers offense that spreads the ball around a lot.

Prediction: 4 years, 80 million, 45 million guaranteed with Baltimore Ravens

22. WR Wan’Dale Robinson

Robinson is a former second round pick, surpassed 1000 yards receiving last season, and is only going into his age 25 season, but his lack of size at 5-8 185 could prevent teams from viewing him as a true #1 receiver. He still figures to be in high demand this off-season though. 

Prediction: 3 years, 63 million, 45 million guaranteed with Tennessee Titans

23. WR Rashid Shaheed

Shaheed has always flashed talent, but has never put it together for a full season, missing 15 games with injury and totaling just 242 targets in four seasons in the league. The deep threat has averaged 9.27 yards per target, 1.75 yards per route run, 14.7 yards per catch, and an average depth of target of 13.5 in his career, while also adding four return touchdowns on special teams. He figures to be paid significantly based on his upside.

Prediction: 3 years, 48 million, 35 million guaranteed with Las Vegas Raiders

24. LB Kaden Elliss

A hybrid reserve edge rusher/linebacker early in his career, Elliss became an every down off ball linebacker in 2022 and has been an above average starter ever since, excelling against the run and as a blitzer, while also holding his own in coverage. The problem is he is going into his age 31 season in 2026, which will affect his market, even if he hasn’t shown real signs of decline yet.

Prediction: 3 years, 42 million, 24 million guaranteed with Denver Broncos

25. LB Devin Bush

Bush was a disappointment early in his career, after being selected in the first round in 2019, but injuries were a big part of the reason for his early career struggles and he has broken out as an above average starter over the past two seasons, playing well both in coverage and against the run, while only missing one game between the two seasons. Still only going into his age 28 season, Bush is young enough to earn a significant payday in free agency this off-season.

Prediction: 3 years, 36 million, 20 million guaranteed with Atlanta Falcons

26. CB Roger McCreary

McCreary was a solid starting cornerback for the Titans from his rookie season in 2022 through the middle of last season when he was traded to the Rams, rather than being extended ahead of his pending free agency. McCreary was more of an insurance policy for the Rams than anything and played very little for them, but it can be tough for a player to get traded mid-season and make an impact on his new team, so I don’t hold it against him much. Still only in his age 26 season, he’s a solid, if unspectacular starting cornerback option for teams in need this off-season.

Prediction: 3 years, 45 million, 31 million guaranteed with Washington Commanders

27. C Connor McGovern

Miscast as a guard earlier in his career, McGovern made the move to center for the Bills two seasons ago and has been an above average starter there since making the switch. Relatively young in his age 29 season, McGovern should remain an above average starting center for at least another couple seasons.

Prediction: 4 years, 48 million, 25 million guaranteed with Chicago Bears

28. CB Martin Emerson

Emerson had a solid rookie year in 2022 and then an even better second season in the league in 2023, when he allowed 47.1% completion and no touchdowns on 70 targets. However, he regressed significantly in 2024, allowing 62.7% completion and 6 touchdowns with no interceptions and then he tore his achilles and missed the entire 2025 season. The injury and his inconsistency obviously make him a risky signing, but he will be more than a full year removed from the injury by the start of the season and, given the top-end ability he has shown and that he is only going into his age 26 season, he could prove to be worth the risk.

Prediction: 3 years, 45 million, 20 million guaranteed with Atlanta Falcons

29. S Jalen Thompson

Thompson is an experienced starting safety with 87 career starts and is still only going into his age 28 season. He doesn’t have a huge upside, but he should remain a solid starting safety for at least another couple seasons.

Prediction: 3 years, 36 million, 24 million guaranteed with Chicago Bears

30. RB Travis Etienne

A first round pick in 2021, Etienne has surpassed 1,000 rushing yards in a season three times and is a decent pass catcher as well, with 1.07 yards per route run in his career, but injuries have significantly affected his other two seasons, as he missed all of his rookie season in 2021 and was limited to 3.72 YPC and 150 carries by injuries in 2024. The Jaguars seem willing to move on from him unless he comes at a discount, in favor of 2025 4th round pick Bhayshul Tuten, but he still figures to be paid as a starter somewhere this off-season.

Prediction: 3 years, 33 million, 22 million guaranteed with New Orleans Saints

NFL Pick Results

stevenlourie NFL Picks

2025

Total Against the Spread: 150-129-6 (53.76%)

Pick of the Week: 10-8 (55.56%)

High Confidence Picks: 23-24-1 (48.94%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 37-28-2 (56.92%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 70-60-3 (53.85%)

Low Confidence Picks: 53-37-3 (58.89%)

No Confidence Picks: 27-32 (45.76%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 18-18 (50.00%)

2024

Total Against the Spread: 157-122-6 (56.27%)

Pick of the Week: 9-9 (50.00%)

High Confidence Picks: 17-9-2 (65.38%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 42-21-2 (66.67%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 68-39-4 (63.55%)

Low Confidence Picks: 52-46-2 (53.06%)

No Confidence Picks: 37-37 (50.00%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 10-19 (34.48%)

2023

Total Against the Spread: 139-136-10 (50.55%)

Pick of the Week: 8-8-2 (50.00%)

High Confidence Picks: 11-7-2 (61.11%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 44-31-1 (58.67%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 63-46-5 (57.80%)

Low Confidence Picks: 35-51-2 (40.70%)

No Confidence Picks: 41-39-3 (51.25%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 19-19 (50.00%)

2022

Total Against the Spread: 140-137-7 (50.54%)

Pick of the Week: 7-10-1 (41.18%)

High Confidence Picks: 14-7-1 (66.67%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 29-30-2 (49.15%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 50-47-4 (51.55%)

Low Confidence Picks: 52-52 (50.00%)

No Confidence Picks: 38-38-3 (50.00%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 24-23 (51.06%)

2021

Total Against the Spread: 146-135-4 (51.96%)

Pick of the Week: 11-6-1 (64.71%)

High Confidence Picks: 15-16-1 (48.39%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 43-36 (54.43%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 69-58-2 (54.33%)

Low Confidence Picks: 50-48 (51.02%)

No Confidence Picks: 27-29-2 (48.21%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 14-19 (42.42%)

2020

Total Against the Spread: 138-127-4 (52.08%)

Pick of the Week: 10-6-1 (62.50%)

High Confidence Picks: 20-14 (58.82%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 40-36-1 (52.63%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 70-56-2 (55.56%)

Low Confidence Picks: 49-39 (55.68%)

No Confidence Picks: 19-32-2 (37.25%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 19-18 (51.35%)

2019

Total Against the Spread: 134-125-8 (51.74%)

Pick of the Week: 12-3-2 (80.00%)

High Confidence Picks: 20-11-1 (64.52%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 35-36-2 (49.30%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 67-50-5 (57.26%)

Low Confidence Picks: 35-40-1 (46.67%)

No Confidence Picks: 32-35-2 (47.76%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 22-21 (51.16%)

2018

Total Against the Spread: 154-102-11 (60.16%)

Pick of the Week: 10-6-1 (62.50%)

High Confidence Picks: 21-13-2 (61.76%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 41-27-1 (60.29%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 72-46-4 (61.02%)

Low Confidence Picks: 35-28-1 (55.56%)

No Confidence Picks: 47-28-6 (62.67%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 25-17-1 (59.52%)

2017

Total Against the Spread: 139-120-8 (53.67%)

Pick of the Week: 11-6 (64.71%)

High Confidence Picks: 21-11-3 (65.63%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 33-34-1 (49.25%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 65-51-4 (56.03%)

Low Confidence Picks: 44-38-4 (53.66%)

No Confidence Picks: 30-31 (49.18%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 19-25 (43.18%)

2016

Total Against the Spread: 130-127-10 (50.58%)

Pick of the Week: 11-6-0 (64.71%)

High Confidence Picks: 12-17-2 (41.38%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 42-26-4 (61.76%)

Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 65-49-6 (57.02%)

Low Confidence Picks: 34-40-2 (45.95%)

No Confidence Picks: 31-38-2 (44.93%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 26-25 (50.98%)

2015

Total Against the Spread: 124-138-5 (47.33%)

Pick of the Week: 9-8 (52.94%)

High Confidence Picks: 14-11 (56.00%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 35-36-1 (49.30%)

Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 58-55-1 (51.33%)

Low Confidence Picks: 36-45-2 (44.44%)

No Confidence Picks: 30-38-2 (44.12%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 16-30 (34.78%)

2014

Total Against the Spread: 150-113-4 (57.03%)

Pick of the Week: 9-7-1 (56.25%)

High Confidence Picks: 9-11 (45.00%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 57-31 (64.77%)

Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 75-49-1 (60.48%)

Low Confidence Picks: 36-32-2 (52.94%)

No Confidence Picks: 39-32-1 (54.93%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 19-25 (43.18%)

2013

Total Against the Spread: 148-110-9 (57.36%)

Pick of the Week: 10-6-1 (62.50%)

High Confidence Picks: 25-10-1 (71.43%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 32-26 (55.17%)

Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 67-42-2 (61.47%)

Low Confidence Picks: 39-28-3 (58.21%)

No Confidence Picks: 42-40-4 (51.22%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 27-31 (46.55%)

All-Time (Since 2013)

Total Against the Spread: 1849-1621-92 (53.29%)

Pick of the Week: 127-89-10 (58.80%)

High Confidence Picks: 222-161-16 (57.96%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 510-398-17 (56.17%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 859-648-43 (57.00%)

Low Confidence Picks: 550-524-22 (51.21%)

No Confidence Picks: 440-449-27 (49.49%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 258-290-1 (47.08%)