New England Patriots 2026 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2026 NFL Season Previews, Patriots

Quarterback

The Patriots went 14-3 last season and went to the Super Bowl, but they got a lot of criticism for their regular season strength of schedule, which was by far the easiest in the league, and for the fact that they faced teams missing key players in the AFC playoffs, criticism that seemed to be founded when the Patriots were overmatched by the Seahawks in a Super Bowl loss that was never really that close. On top of their weak schedule, the Patriots also got pretty lucky with injuries, as they had the fewest adjusted games lost to injury in the league. This season, the Patriots face a tougher schedule, figure to have more injuries, and are unlikely to win the same amount of games, but there are some reasons for optimism. 

For one, while the Patriots did face an easy schedule, they mostly blew out their weak opponents, finishing the regular season with the 3rd best point differential in the league at +170. Even when schedule is taken into account, the Patriots still ranked 4th in efficiency, particularly excelling on offense, where they ranked 6th. On top of that, the Patriots made some key additions this off-season and overall look to have a better roster than they did a year ago.

Quarterback Drake Maye finished as the runner up in MVP voting last season, completing 72.0% of his passes for an average of 8.93 YPA, 31 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, while rushing for 450 yards and 4 touchdowns on 103 carries (4.37 YPC). While the Patriots did face a very easy schedule, the one relative strength the Patriots’ opponents had last season was pass defense, so, while Maye did face a below average slate of pass defenses, it wasn’t a significantly below average one. 

Maye’s schedule will be tougher this season, but his performance last season should still be close to replicable, especially with an improved offensive supporting cast. Maye is also still only going into his age 24 season and, while he is not yet proven as a quarterback who can play at the level he played at last season year in and year out, the 2024 3rd overall pick definitely has the talent to be one of the best quarterbacks in the league for years to come.

Backing up Maye is Tommy DeVito, a former undrafted free agent and spot starter with the New York Giants. DeVito wasn’t too bad in his 8 career starts in New York, completing 65.3% of his passes for an average of 6.12 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, and is an adequate backup option. The Patriots would obviously be in a lot of trouble if he had to start for an extended period of time, but that isn’t really a knock on DeVito as much as it is a testament to how good Maye has become and how much of a key to this team’s success he is.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

The biggest addition the Patriots made this off-season was trading for wide receiver AJ Brown, who they sent a 2028 1st round pick to the Eagles for. Brown replaces Stefon Diggs, who was good as the de facto #1 wide receiver last season, finishing with a 85/1013/4 slash line on 102 targets and 2.42 yards per route run, but Diggs was on the wrong side of 30 and coming off of a torn ACL, so the Patriots limited his snap count all season, leading to him playing just 598 snaps and running just 419 routes. At the very least, AJ Brown should be able to play more of a traditional #1 wide receiver’s snap count than Diggs and he could also be an upgrade in terms of his talent level when on the field.

In seven seasons in the league, Brown has played with middling quarterbacks at best on teams that run the ball at a high rate, but he has still managed a 85/1300/9 slash line per 17 games. On a per target and per route run basis, he is even better, averaging 9.84 yards per target and 2.55 yards per route run. Now paired with by far the best quarterback he’s ever played with on what should be a more pass heavy offense than he is used to, Brown has the potential to see his production go up a level. 

There is some concern about Brown having a relative down year last year, with his 78/1003/7 slash line in 15 games, 8.29 yards per target, and 2.06 yards per route run all being below his career averages, but the Eagles’ offense in general had a down year last year and Brown is still only going into his age 29 season, so he shouldn’t be over the hill yet and I would expect him to bounce back in 2026, perhaps in a big way, given how much better his new situation is for putting up numbers than his old one was.

Brown wasn’t the only wide receiver the Patriots added this off-season, signing Romeo Doubs to a 4-year, 68 million dollar deal. Doubs rotated a lot in Green Bay, playing just 703 snaps per season and running just 400 routes per season in four seasons there, and the Patriots do have a fairly deep receiving corps that rotated a lot last season, but the amount of money the Patriots paid Doubs suggests they view him as a true every down starter and #2 wide receiver. 

In four seasons in Green Bay, Doubs averaged 1.52 yards per route run and 7.58 yards per target, including 1.73 yards per route run and 8.52 yards per target last season, and he is still only going into his age 26 season. He also averaged an average depth of target of 12.1, including 13.2 last season, making him an ideal fit with Drake Maye, who led the league in passer rating on throws 20 yards downfield or longer last season at 132.7.

With Brown and Doubs expected to play a traditional snap count for a #1 and #2 receiver, that leaves Mack Hollins, Kayshon Boutte, and Demario Douglas competing for the #3 receiver job, after playing snap counts of 656, 607, and 288 last season, though it is worth noting that all three are in the final year of their contract and have had their names mentioned in trade rumors in the wake of the AJ Brown acquisition. If all three remain on the roster, Boutte seems like the favorite for the #3 receiver job.

Boutte finished last season with a 33/551/6 slash line on 46 targets and 1.48 yards per route run, after a 43/589/3 slash line on 68 targets and 1.26 yards per route in 2024. He also has an average depth of target of 14.5 and 17.5 in 2024 and 2025 respectively. Hollins was more productive last season, with a 46/550/2 slash line on 65 targets and 1.60 yards per route run, but that was a career high in yards per route run and the second highest receiving yardage total of his career and he’s now heading into his age 33 season, while Boutte heads into his age 24 season. Boutte was also much more efficient on a per target basis last season (11.98 vs. 8.46).

Douglas, meanwhile, is a slot specialist with a career 1.64 yards per route run average on 331 routes per season in three seasons in the league, including 2.01 on 222 routes last season. His role seems the most secure of the three, even if he is not the nominal #3 receiver, because he excels in his specific niche. The Patriots also have Kyle Williams, who they drafted in the 3rd round in 2025, but he was underwhelming across 335 snaps as a rookie, averaging just 1.17 yards per route run and turning 21 targets into just a 10/209/3 slash line. The Patriots probably still have hope for him for the future, but he would need a trade and/or an injury ahead of him on the depth chart to have a significant role this season.

With many of their wide receivers rotating snaps last season, tight end Hunter Henry ranked second on the team in targets with 87, turning them into a 60/768/7 slash line and 1.67 yards per route run, but he is going into his age 32 season in 2026 and the Patriots receiving corps is better this year than a year ago, so I would expect an at least slightly scaled back role for Henry in 2026 and possibly a decline in his effectiveness as well. 

Henry has been a reasonably effective tight end throughout his career though, averaging a 57/662/6 slash line per 17 games and 1.50 yards per route run in 10 seasons in the league, so even if he is at less than his best, he could still be a decent starter. The Patriots also used a third round pick on Eli Raridon to be a potential long-term replacement for Henry. In the short-term, he will replace Austin Hooper, who had a 21/263/2 slash line and 1.34 yards per route run on 26 targets last season as the #2 tight end. This looks likely to be a better receiving corps in 2026 than 2025, primarily due to the addition of AJ Brown.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The Patriots also made a big addition on the offensive line, signing Aljiah Vera-Tucker to a 3-year, 42 million dollar deal. Vera-Tucker, a first round pick in 2021, has been an above average starter whenever he has played in his career, but he has had terrible luck with injuries, leading to him playing just 43 games in five seasons in the league, including an entire 2025 season missed due to a torn triceps. Vera-Tucker is still only in his age 27 season, so if his injuries haven’t sapped his abilities and if he doesn’t miss more time, he should remain an above average starter, but those are big ifs.

Vera-Tucker’s addition has the potential to upgrade two offensive line spots, as he will move incumbent left guard Jared Wilson to center, where the 2025 3rd round pick is a better fit, after struggling as a rookie at left guard in 2025. At center, Wilson could easily be an upgrade over Garrett Bradbury, who also struggled last season, before getting traded in what amounted to a salary dump this off-season. Even if Vera-Tucker misses time with injury, Wilson will likely stay at center, with top interior reserve Ben Brown being a better fit at guard than center, though he can play both. Brown, who has made 14 starts over the past two seasons, would be a downgrade from either Vera-Tucker or Wilson if forced into action, but he isn’t a bad backup option all things considered.

The Patriots could also get a better year out of left tackle Will Campbell, the 4th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Campbell got a lot of criticism for his poor play in the post-season last year, but he was playing at mless than 100% due to a knee injury that cost him four games at the end of the regular season. Before his injury, Campbell was a solid starter and, now healthy and going into his second season in the league, he has the potential to be even better in 2026 than he was in the regular season last year. There is still some speculation that Campbell might be best at right tackle or guard long-term, due to his lack of length, but for now he will remain at left tackle.

If Campbell does eventually move from left tackle, it would probably be because the Patriots want their first round pick this year Caleb Lomu to play there. For now, Lomu will compete for the starting right tackle job with incumbent Morgan Moses, who is going into his age 35 season, but who was still solid last season. Moses could decline in 2026, but he has been very durable in his career, missing just six games in the past eleven seasons in the league, which likely has helped him age gracefully. I would still consider him the favorite for the week 1 starting job, with Lomu starting his career as the swing tackle, before potentially moving into the starting lineup later in the season, if not in 2027.

Rounding out the offensive line is right guard Mike Onwenu, who has been a solid starter in 90 starts in six seasons in the league. He’s seen action at both guard spots and right tackle in his career and could move if the Patriots needed him to, but he seems to have settled into as the right guard. Still relatively young in his age 29 season, I would expect him to continue playing at about the same level he always has in 2026. With Alijah Vera-Tucker being added and Will Campbell and Jared Wilson going into their second year in the league, this offensive line could be better than a year ago, though there is some concern at right tackle if veteran Morgan Moses declines due to age and Caleb Lomu is unable to adequately replace him as a rookie.

Grade: B

Running Backs

TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson were the Patriots’ top-2 backs last season in terms of carries, but it was a muddled backfield all year. None of that was surprising, but what was surprising was how the two backs were used and how they performed. Stevenson was expected to be the lead back and primary between the tackles runner, while Henderson was expected to be the explosive change of pace back and primary passing down back.

Instead, Henderson led the team in carries with 180 compared to 130 for Stevenson and had a slightly higher carry success rate (51.7% to 50.8%), but Stevenson had a higher percentage of his carries go for 15+ yards (6.9% to 5.6%) and was more effective in the passing game, with a 32/345/2 slash line on 37 targets with 1.34 yards per route run, while Henderson had a 35/221/1 slash line on 42 targets with 0.93 yards per route run. Their carry totals are much closer if you take out the three games Stevenson missed with injury though, with 133 for Henderson and 130 for Stevenson, and Stevenson was the clear lead back in the post-season, with 58 carries to 30 for Henderson. 

How this backfield breaks down this season remains to be seen and could change week-to-week, but it is clear that the Patriots feel comfortable using the two backs more interchangeably than we expected when Henderson was added in the 2nd round of last year’s draft. Stevenson has rushed for 4.39 YPC and 28 touchdowns on 836 carries in his career, with 3.31 yards per carry after contact, a 20.8% missed tackle rate, and a 50.2% carry success rate, while Henderson rushed for 5.06 YPC and 9 touchdowns on 180 carries as a rookie, with 3.45 yards per carry after contact and a 16.7% missed tackle rate, so both backs are useful options. This is not a spectacular backfield, but it is a solid one that should get the job done.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Patriots’ defense was their weaker unit last season, ranking 19th in schedule adjusted efficiency. They ranked 4th in points per game allowed, 6th in yards per play allowed, and 8th in first down rate allowed, but their defense faced a much easier schedule than their offense, consistently facing off against the worst offenses in the league, something they will not get the benefit of doing again in 2026. Their biggest weakness on defense last season was the edge defender position and I don’t think they really fixed it this off-season.

Harold Landry (676 snaps) and K’Lavon Chaisson (641 snaps) were their top-2 edge defenders last season and both had good pass rush numbers, finishing with 8.5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 11.8% pressure rate and 7.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 13.5% pressure rate respectively, but both benefited from an easy schedule and Chaisson left this off-season. Also leaving this off-season was Anfernee Jennings (280 snaps), a mediocre pass rusher, but a solid run defender. To replace them, the Patriots signed Dre’Mont Jones and used a second round pick on Gabe Jacas. Jacas has upside, but could struggle through growing pains in year one, while Jones is unlikely to move the needle at this position. 

Jones was once primarily an interior player and he was a good pass rusher at that position, totaling 23 sacks, 24 hits, and a 9.5% pressure rate in 59 games from 2020 to 2023, but he struggled against the run and was undersized for an interior defender at 6-3 283, so he moved to the outside, where his pass rush numbers have improved, but are underwhelming for an edge player, with 11 sacks, 26 hits, and a 10.9% pressure rate in 35 games over the past two seasons. Meanwhile, his run defense has been less of an issue on the edge, but he is still not a good run defender, despite having good size for an edge player. The Patriots need him more on the edge than the interior and he figures to play there primarily, but he is far from the top level edge defender that this defense still lacks.

Harold Landry will continue playing a big role. In eight seasons in the league, Landry has totaled 59 sacks, 65 hits, and a 10.1% pressure rate in 113 games. He’s a little bit better as a run defender, but he is now heading into his age 30 season and could start to decline, both as a run defender and a pass rusher. Landry forms an underwhelming starting duo with Dre’Mont Jones. Along with the rookie Jacas, Elijah Ponder will probably have a role as a reserve, although that is more due to the lack of a better option, as the 2025 undrafted free agent was underwhelming across 215 snaps last season. This is still a below average position group.

Grade: C

Interior Defenders

The Patriots’ interior defenders were the strength of this defense last season, with Christian Barmore and Milton Williams being an above average starting duo and Khyiris Tonga and Cory Durden providing good depth. Barmore and Williams should remain an above average duo, but there is some concern that this position group won’t be as good as a year ago. Both Barmore and Williams are at their best as pass rushers, with Barmore totaling 15.5 sacks, 30 hits, and a 10.7% pressure rate in 65 career games and Williams totaling 15 sacks, 27 hits, and a 9.4% pressure rate in 79 career games. Last season, Barmore had 2 sacks, 9 hits, and a 11.7% pressure rate, while Williams had 3.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 12.3% pressure rate. Neither are bad run defenders either and both are going into their age 27 season and should continue playing at a high level. 

The concern is depth, as Tonga left as a free agent and will be replaced by 2025 4th round pick Joshua Farmer, who struggled across 224 snaps as a rookie, while Durden’s solid season in 2025 could prove to be a fluke, as the 2023 undrafted free agent had struggled across 128 snaps prior to last season, when he played 385 snaps and fared well as a run defender and pass rusher (8.7% pressure). Depth concerns hurt their overall grade at this position.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Patriots’ linebacking corps probably won’t be as good as it was a year ago either, for a couple reasons. For one, Robert Spillane, their top linebacker, is going into his age 31 season and could start to decline. He’s been a consistently above average linebacker for several years, particularly excelling against the run, while starting all 47 games played over the past three seasons and averaging 62.4 snaps per game, but he could be closer to only an average starter this season, which would hurt this defense.

The Patriots also lost most of the linebackers who saw action for them last season, most notably Jack Gibbens, who was decent across 494 snaps as the third linebacker, and they didn’t really do a good job replacing them. Christian Elliss remains as the second linebacker, but he has been mediocre in his career, while maxing out with snap counts of 514 and 506 over the past two seasons. In what figures to be an expanded role this season, he could be even more of a liability.

The third linebacker job will likely go to KJ Britt, Chad Muma, or Namdi Obiazor, all of whom would likely be a liability. Britt has mostly been a special teamer in his career, with the only significant action of his career on defense being the 613 snaps he played in 2024, when he struggled mightily. Chad Muma was a 3rd round pick by the Jaguars in 2022, but has played just 748 nondescript snaps in four seasons in the league. Obiazor is a 6th round rookie who is highly unlikely to contribute in a significant positive way in year one. This is a below average linebacking corps.

Grade: B-

Secondary

The one major upgrade on this defense from this season compared to last is the signing of safety Kevin Byard to replace Jaylinn Hawkins. While Hawkins was an underwhelming starter last season, Byard has been a consistently above average starter through his career, while making 155 starts in 10 seasons in the league. Byard is going into his age 33 season and could start to decline this season, but he’s been incredibly durable in his career, missing just 1 game in his entire career, which should help him age more gracefully than most and, even if he does decline a little bit in 2026, he should still be an upgrade over Hawkins. The Patriots could also get better play from their other safety spot, with 2025 4th round pick Craig Woodson going into his second season in the league, after a decent, but unspectacular rookie season in which he played 949 snaps and started 15 of 17 games played. 

The Patriots bring back their top-3 cornerbacks from a year ago. Christian Gonzalez has developed into one of the best cornerbacks in the league and could still get better, as the 2023 1st round pick is only going into his age 24 season. His only issue is durability, as he has missed at least one game in all three seasons in the league, with multiple games missed in two of three seasons and 17 games missed total. On the other hand, the Patriots other two top-3 cornerbacks, Carlton Davis and Marcus Jones, are much more middling.

Carlton Davis has had some solid seasons in his career, but last season was his worst in years, as he was a marginal starter at best, and he’s now heading into his age 30 season, so his best days are probably behind him. He’s also missed multiple games with injury in all eight seasons in the league except last season, so he will probably miss more time in 2026. Jones, meanwhile, has been a decent, but unspectacular slot cornerback in his career, while missing 20 games in four seasons in the league, with last season being the first in which he did not miss multiple games due to injury. 

Depth is also a bit of a concern at cornerback, especially given the injury history of their top-3 cornerbacks. Top reserve options are Kindle Vildor, who has been a liability through six seasons in the league, while starting just 27 of 80 games played, and 5th round rookie Karon Prunty, who would probably struggle if forced into an extended stint as a starter in year one. Things are at least a little better at safety, where Mike Brown has been decent across 501 snaps in four seasons in the league, while Dell Pettus has been decent across 454 snaps in two seasons in the league. The presence of Christian Gonzalez elevates this position group significantly and the addition of Kevin Byard to replace Jaylinn Hawkins should be an upgrade, but the rest of this group is underwhelming and Byard’s age is at least somewhat of a concern.

Grade: B

Kickers

The Patriots drafted Andres Borregales in the 6th round of the 2025 NFL Draft and he had a rough rookie season, costing the Patriots 7.32 points compared to an average kicker, 4th worst in the NFL. Borregales has the talent to be better in his second season in the league, but he has a long way to go to even be an average kicker so, even if he is better in 2026, he could still be a liability. The Patriots still believe in him, not adding any competition this off-season, but it remains to be seen if that was the correct choice.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

A lot of things had to go right for the Patriots to win 14 games and make the Super Bowl, including a weak regular season schedule, a down year for the AFC in general, untimely injuries for AFC post-season opponents, and very few of their own injuries relative to the rest of the league. The Patriots won’t be able to count on any of that this season, but they did do a good job at least addressing some needs on their roster and overall look like a more talented team this season than last season, so they should have a good shot to make it back into the post-season, even if they are not a true top level team.

Prediction: 10-7, 2nd in NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles 2026 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2026 NFL Season Previews, Eagles

Quarterback

The Eagles won the Super Bowl in 2024, after a 14-3 regular season, but in 2025, they fell to 11-6 and went out in the first round of the post-season. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, they were even worse than their record suggested in 2025, finishing 16th, as their record was helped by a 8-4 record in one-score games, which likely won’t happen again in 2026. Making matters worse, their only three wins by more than one score came against teams that finished 5-12 or worse. 

The Eagles’ defense declining last season was not that surprising, as they lost four players who played at least 500 snaps or more on their 2024 defense last off-season, but, while their defense only fell from 1st in schedule adjusted efficiency to 7th, their offense actually fell even more, from 13th to 22nd, despite bringing back 10 of 11 starters. The reasons for their offensive decline are complex, but to simplify it, the Eagles’ lost offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who became the Saints’ head coach, and replaced him with Kevin Patullo, who was overmatched in his first season on the job, leading to numerous players having down seasons. 

Patullo was fired this off-season and was replaced by former Packers quarterbacks coach Sean Mannion, who should be an upgrade by default. However, Mannion is an inexperienced coach who probably won’t be as good as Kellen Moore was and the Eagles’ offense lost talented wide receiver AJ Brown via trade this off-season and didn’t get any trade compensation for him until 2028, so it seems unlikely the Eagles’ offense will bounce all the way back to their 2024 level of play in 2026.

Quarterback Jalen Hurts is obviously a Super Bowl winning quarterback, but he was far from the biggest reason why the Eagles played at the level they played at in 2024, as their defense was the strength of the team, while the offense had a loaded supporting cast. Over the past four seasons, Hurts’ numbers look good, as he has completed 66.2% of his passes for an average of 7.55 YPA, 88 touchdowns, and 32 interceptions, while rushing for 4.19 YPC and 50 touchdowns on 577 carries, but his numbers look better than he has played because of how much talent he has had around him. From 2024 to 2025, he saw his completion percentage drop from 68.7% to 64.8% and his YPA drop from 8.04 to a career low 7.10. He’s certainly not a bad starting quarterback, but he’s not a particularly good one either, which is a concern with his supporting cast not being what it was in 2024, most notably with AJ Brown gone.

Tanner McKee was Hurts’ backup last season and the 2023 6th round pick has shown some promise in his career, completing 61.4% of his passes for an average of 6.78 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 1 interception, but both of his starts have come in meaningless week 18 games that were glorified pre-season games, so it is tough to put much stock into his performance. The Eagles don’t seem totally sold on him either, adding veteran backup Andy Dalton and 5th round pick Cole Turner this off-season to compete with McKee.

Dalton is extremely experienced, making 169 career starts in 15 seasons in the league, completing 62.6% of his passes for an average of 7.04 YPA, 254 touchdowns, and 151 interceptions, but he has only made seven starts in the past three seasons, completing 64.7% of his passes for an average of 6.44 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in that stretch, and now he’s heading into his age 39 season, so there is no guarantee he will be better than McKee. Turner, meanwhile, is probably too raw to be the backup as a rookie and figures to spend his first season in the league as a 3rd string quarterback at best. This is not a bad quarterback room, but it isn’t a particularly good one either.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

As I mentioned, the loss of AJ Brown will be a big deal for this offense. Like most of this offense, he had a down year in 2025, but he still finished with a 78/1003/7 slash line and was even better than that suggests, as he averaged 8.29 yards per target and 2.06 yards per route run, with his production being kept down by the run heavy nature of the Eagles’ offense, which ranked just 24th in pass attempts. In 2024, he was even more efficient, averaging 9.84 yards per target and 2.99 yards per route run.

To try to replace Brown, the Eagles went with quantity over quality, a shift in strategy for a team who directed 80.4% of their wide receiver targets to their top-2 wide receivers in 2025 and 71.3% in 2024. Likely the best of their new wide receivers is Makai Lemon, who they selected in the first round. Lemon has the upside to be as good as Brown long-term, but he will almost definitely be a downgrade as a rookie. He will probably be the #2 wide receiver, with veteran additions Dontayvion Wicks and Hollywood Brown likely to compete for the #3 wide receiver job. 

Wicks is probably the heavy favorite for that role, as the Eagles gave up a pair of late round picks and gave him a 1-year, 12.5 million dollar extension for 2027 upon acquiring him. Wicks has a decent 1.63 yards per route run average in his career, but he’s been a part-time player through three seasons in the league, with snap counts of 458, 586, and 409. It is possible he plays a career high in snaps this season, but it is also possible he continues rotating snaps, with Hollywood Brown also being added on a 1-year, 5 million dollar deal. Brown is a decent, but unspectacular player with a career 1.56 yards per route run average, despite good quarterback play for most of his career.

Devonta Smith will probably also see a higher target share in Brown’s absence, becoming a true #1 receiver, rather than a 1b to Brown’s 1a. Smith is one of the few Eagles offensive players who didn’t have a down year last season, with a 77/1008/4 slash line on 113 targets in 17 games with 1.92 yards per route run, in line with his career averages of 82/1067/7 per 17 games and 1.90 yards per route run. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, I would expect a similar level of play from him in 2026, with a likely uptick in production as a result of a higher target share.

The Eagles could also run more two tight end sets this season to try to make up for the loss of AJ Brown, with Eli Stowers being added in the second round of the draft, to backup long-time starting tight end Dallas Goedert. In seven seasons as a starter, Goedert has averaged a 69/802/6 slash line per 17 games with a 1.72 yards per route run average. However, he has missed 25 games with injury during those seven seasons and he is now going into his age 31 season and coming off of a down year, in which he had a 60/591/11 slash line in 15 games and a 1.37 yards per route run average. Stowers was likely drafted in part time to be Goedert’s long-term replacement, in addition to having a situational role in the short-term. This receiving corps won’t be as good without AJ Brown, but they are at least deeper than they have been in recent years.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Eagles’ offensive line was the unit that had the biggest regression from 2024 to 2025, as they went from ranking 6th in pass block win rate and 9th in run block win rate in 2024 to 17th and 16th in those two metrics in 2025. This happened despite the Eagles’ bringing back four of five starters from their 2024 offensive line in 2025. The one difference was at right guard, where Mekhi Becton left as a free agent and was replaced by Tyler Steen. 

Steen was a bit of a downgrade from Becton, as Becton was a slightly above average starter, while Steen was a slightly below average starter, but that alone was not the reason for the unit’s decline. Steen remains as the starter in 2026 and as a 2023 3rd round pick who is going into his second season as a starter, he could take a step forward in 2026, still only his age 26 season, but that is not a guarantee.

A bigger reason why they declined on the offensive line in 2025 was right tackle Lane Johnson missing seven regular season games due to injury, in addition to their playoff loss to the 49ers. Johnson was their best offensive lineman in 2024 and, until getting hurt, he was their best offensive lineman again in 2025, as he has been for many years, so his absence was a big deal. His absence was especially a big deal because backup Fred Johnson was a liability, as he has been for most of his career, in which he has made 22 starts in seven seasons in the league as a swing tackle. Lane Johnson will probably be healthier in 2026, but he has a pretty extensive injury history, missing 45 games in 13 seasons in the league, while missing at least one game in all but two seasons in the league, with his last full season coming back in 2016. 

On top of that, Lane Johnson is going into his age 36 season in 2026 and, between his age and injury history, he could easily decline noticeably in 2026. Johnson is a potential Hall of Famer with numerous All-Pro caliber seasons in his career, so even at less than his best, he could easily be an above average starter, but a significant decline from him would counteract the benefit of having him on the field for more games. The Eagles used a 3rd round pick on Markel Bell to potentially replace Johnson long-term, but he enters the league very raw and might not even be able to beat out Fred Johnson for the swing tackle role in year one.

Left guard Landon Dickerson and Cam Jurgens were relatively healthy in 2025 compared to Johnson, though they did miss two games and three games respectively. The bigger problem was both declined even when on the field in 2025 compared to 2024, with Dickerson going from an above average starter to an average starter and Jurgens going from an average starter to a slightly below average starter. For Dickerson, 2024 was the best season of his 5-year career, so he probably won’t be as good again in 2026, but 2025 was arguably his worst and 2026 figures to be somewhere in between, still in his prime in his age 28 season. The same should be true for Jurgens, a 2022 2nd round pick and 3-year starter, for whom 2024 was also a career best year. 

The one spot where the Eagles got the same level of play all season on this offensive line in 2024 and 2025 was left tackle, where Jordan Mailata actually played in more games in 2025 (16) than 2024 (12) and continued playing at a well above average level. A 6-year starter with 85 career starts, Mailata has consistently played at a high level in his career and, still only going into his age 29 season, I would expect a similar level of play from him in 2026.

One concern on this offensive line is the lack of experienced depth on the interior. Brett Toth, who was decent in four starts in place of Jurgens and Dickerson last season, is no longer with the team, leaving Drew Kendall, a 2025 5th round pick who made one nondescript start as a rookie, and 6th round rookie Micah Morris as their top reserves, with the rest of the depth chart consisting of recent undrafted free agents who have never played a snap. This offensive line is unlikely to be as good as it was a year ago, but there is an argument to be made that they will be better than last season. 

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Feature back Saquon Barkley had a big statistical drop off from 2024 to 2025, going from 2,005 yards and 13 touchdowns on 345 carries (5.81 YPC) to 1,140 yards and 7 touchdowns on 280 carries (4.07 YPC). However, the decline of his blocking was a big part of the issue, as Barkley’s yards per carry after contact only fell from 3.17 to 2.71 and his missed tackle rate actually increased from 17.4% to 18.6%. 

Barkley’s blocking will probably a little better in 2026, but it won’t be as good as it was in 2024 and I don’t expect him to be either, now going into his age 29 season, which is somewhat of an advanced age for a running back, especially for one that has simultaneously missed 27 games in eight seasons in the league and also has 2,184 career touches. He’s been an effective running back in his career, averaging 4.58 yards per carry, but his best days are probably behind him. 

Behind Barkley, the Eagles have Tank Bigsby, who gets a few carries a game when Barkley needs a rest and would get the majority of the carries if Barkley missed time, and Will Shipley, a passing down specialist who comes in for Barkley in some obvious passing situations. In three seasons in the league, Bigsby has shown promise, rushing for 1,254 yards and 11 touchdowns on 281 carries (4.46 YPC), with 3.52 yards per carry after contact, a 26.3% missed tackle rate, and a 48.4% carry success rate, though he does struggle in passing situations with a career 0.42 yards per route run average. 

Shipley, meanwhile, has averaged 0.90 yards per route run in two seasons in the league, while totaling 16 targets and 44 carries. Barkley is a decent pass catcher as well, averaging 1.08 yards per route run in his career, but that has fallen to 0.89 over the past four seasons and the Eagles don’t mind taking him out for Shipley in long yardage situations to keep Barkley fresh. Barkley isn’t what he used to be, but this is definitely not a bad backfield.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, the Eagles’ defense was not as good in 2025 as it was in 2024, but it was still one of the better defenses in the league, especially after adding Jaelan Phillips in a mid-season trade to replace Josh Sweat, a big loss from the previous off-season, who had 8 sacks, 9 hits, and a 13.5% pressure rate in 16 games in 2024. In 8 games with the team in 2025, Phillips excelled as a pass rusher, with 2 sacks, 7 hits, and a 17.7% pressure rate. 

Phillips was not retained as a free agent this off-season, but the Eagles adequately replaced him by trading for Jonathan Greenard. Over the past three seasons, Greenard has totaled 27.5 sacks, 29 hits, and a 14.5% pressure rate in 44 games, while providing solid run defense. Last season, he had 3 sacks. 9 hits, and a 17.4% pressure rate in 12 games. Greenard is still in his late prime in his age 29 season, but injuries have been a concern for him in his career, costing him 23 games in six seasons in the league, with at least two games missed in five of six seasons. Still, he is a welcome addition for this edge defender room.

Greenard will play significant snaps along with top holdovers Jalyx Hunt (694 snaps) and Nolan Smith (452 snaps), who are not as good as Greenard, but are solid players in their own right. Hunt, a 2024 3rd round pick, played 240 nondescript snaps before having a mini breakout season in 2025, struggling a bit against the run, but more than making up for it with 6.5 sacks, 17 hits, and a 15.9% pressure rate. 

Hunt is still unproven, only having done that once, but he’s also only going into his age 25 season and there is probably a better chance that he improves further in 2026 than there is that he regresses back to his rookie year form. Smith, meanwhile, is more of a well-rounded player, providing solid but unspectacular run defense and pass rush, with 9.5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 12.7% pressure rate in a part-time role over the past two seasons (35.6 snaps per game). A 2023 1st round pick who is still only going into his age 25 season, Smith could still have further untapped potential.

The Eagles also added Arnold Ebiketie in free agency, a talented situational rusher. He has only played 457 snaps per season and 27.3 snaps per game in his career, but he has 16.5 sacks, 25 hits, and a 12.0% pressure rate in 67 games in a part-time role and he hasn’t been a bad run defender either. A 2022 2nd round pick who is still only going into his age 27 season, Ebiketie could potentially handle a larger workload, but in a loaded position group in Philadelphia it is hard to see him getting the chance to do that unless someone misses significant time ahead of him on the depth chart. The Eagles don’t have a true #1 edge rusher, but they should have no problem getting after the quarterback off the edge regardless.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

Another defender the Eagles lost last off-season was Milton Williams, a talented situational interior pass rusher who had 5 sacks, 7 hits, and a 13.2% pressure rate in part-time role in 2024 (500 snaps), who then went on to become one of the better interior defenders in the league in an expanded role in New England last season, but the Eagles were so deep at the interior defender position that other players just played more snaps in his absence last season and they barely missed him. 

Moro Ojomo (388 snaps to 741 snaps) and Jordan Davis (387 snaps to 686 snaps) were the ones that took the biggest step forward in terms of playing time. Ojomo excelled as a situational pass in 2024, not recording a sack in a limited role, but adding 5 hits and a 11.6% pressure rate. In 2025 in a bigger role, his sack total jumped to 6, while adding 4 hits, and a 10.8% pressure rate, and his run defense, once a liability, improved a little bit too. He’s a one-year wonder in terms of putting together the season he had last season and it is worth noting he fell to the 7th round in 2023 and probably doesn’t have a higher upside than what he has shown, but he could easily have permanently turned a corner in which case he should remain an above average starter, still only going into his age 25 season.

Davis, meanwhile, was a first round pick in 2022 and the only reason he played just 377 snaps per season in his first three seasons in the league was conditioning issues, as he consistently played above average run defense with decent pass rush when on the field. In 2025, Davis showed up in much better shape and was able to continue his previous level of play across a much bigger snap count as a result. The 6-6 336 pounder is obviously at his best against the run, but he also has a decent career 6.5% pressure rate. Still only in his age 26 season, Davis’ only issue going forward is whether or not he can continually stay in good enough shape to play as many snaps as he did last season.

Jalen Carter, the Eagles’ best interior defender in 2024, was the only interior defender on the team who did not have a better season in 2025, in fact missing five games due to injury and another due to an ejection before the first snap. When on the field though, he was about the same as he always had been, with solid run defense and 3 sacks, 8 hits, and a 10.2% pressure rate. In three seasons in the league, the former 9th overall pick has 13.5 sacks, 25 hits, and a 10.6% pressure rate in 44 career games, with just two games missed outside of last season, and, still only going into his age 25 season, he could still have even better days ahead of him.

The one minor concern with this group is depth outside of their top-3, which would only become a serious issue if one of their top-3 missed time with injury. With Carter missing time, Byron Young played 338 snaps, with 187 of them coming in the 6 games Carter missed. Young was a 3rd round pick by the Raiders in 2023, but has shown next to nothing in his career, playing just 99 snaps as a rookie, not making the Raiders final roster in his second season in the league in 2024, spending that whole season on the Eagles practice squad and injured reserve, not playing a snap, and then predictably struggling in his first real action in 2025. 

Still only in his age 26 season, he may theoretically have some untapped potential, but he also could be pushed for his deep reserve role by 2025 4th round pick Ty Robinson, who played just 104 snaps as a rookie, but could take a step forward in year two and at least be an upgrade over Young. The lack of a reliable 4th interior defender is just a minor issue for a position group that has a great top-3 who are all young and talented.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

One upgrade for this defense between 2024 and 2025 was the addition of linebacker Jihaad Campbell in the first round of the draft, who played 711 snaps in 16 games as a rookie and was immediately an above average starter. Now going into his second season in the league, Campbell could see an expanded snap count with Nakobe Dean (403 snaps in 9 games) leaving as a free agent. Campbell pairs with Zack Baun, an All-Pro caliber player in each of the past two seasons, to give the Eagles arguably the best linebacker duo in the league.

Baun, a 3rd round pick by the Saints in 2020, played just 664 snaps in his first four seasons in the league in New Orleans as a hybrid defensive end/linebacker, but he showed promise and more than made good on that promise once arriving in Philadelphia and moving to linebacker full-time. His age is a minor concern, going into his age 30 season, but he could remain at least an above average all-around linebacker even if he does decline somewhat and he also just as easily could have another All-Pro caliber season.

With Nakobe Dean gone, Jeremiah Trotter figures to be the third linebacker. A 2024 5th round pick, Trotter has only played 192 snaps in two seasons in the league due to the talent ahead of him on the depth chart, but he has shown a lot of promise in his limited action and it shouldn’t be a surprise at all if he becomes a solid third linebacker, playing a situational role against the run. Whether or not he could continue being a solid player in an every down role in the case of a major injury to one of their top-2 linebackers remains to be seen, but he at least has the potential to do that. Even with Dean gone and Baun now in his age 30 season, this is still arguably the best linebacking corps in the league.

Grade: A

Secondary

After Jonathan Greenard, the biggest addition on this defense this off-season was cornerback Tariq Woolen. A 5th round pick in 2022, Woolen was immediately an above average starter in his first season in the league, but has struggled to regain that form, only being an average starter in each of the past three seasons in the league. Whether or not he can ever bounce back to his rookie year form remains to be seen, but even if he is only an average starter he should help this team because he is not only replacing Adoree Jackson, who was a liability in 588 snaps as the third cornerback last season, but he is also partially replacing safety Reed Blankenship, who was also a liability in 1,009 snaps last season. 

In base packages, Woolen will start outside opposite Quinyon Mitchell, while Cooper DeJean, previously a full-time cornerback, will become a hybrid player who plays safety in base packages and replaces Blankenship, and then moves to the slot in sub packages. DeJean has developed into a borderline All-Pro caliber player in two seasons in the league since being drafted in the second round in 2024, so it is a little bit risky to change his role, but DeJean’s skill set could translate better to safety than outside cornerback in base packages and he will still play the majority of his snaps on the slot in sub packages, where he is at his best. 

Still in his age 23 season, DeJean could have his best year yet in 2026 and has the talent to be a perennial All-Pro caliber player for years to come. Quinyon Mitchell was also taken in that 2024 draft, in the first round, and he has also developed into a well above average starter, as a traditional outside cornerback. Still only going into his age 25 season, Mitchell could also have his best year yet in his third season in the league in 2026 and also has the talent to become a perennial All-Pro caliber player for years to come. 

Safety Andrew Mukaba will be the fourth starter in base packages, playing safety opposite DeJean. A 2nd round pick in 2025, Mukaba played every down in 11 games (672 snaps) as a rookie, before a season ending broken ankle. He was a bit of a liability, but he could be at least a little bit better in his second season in the league. In sub packages when DeJean moves to the slot, Mukaba will play next to either Marcus Epps or Michael Carter, a pair of underwhelming veteran options. 

Epps started all 34 games between 2022 and 2023, but was a liability both seasons and subsequently played just 426 snaps in the past two seasons. Now going into his age 30 season, he figures to be a liability even if he only plays a sub package role. Carter, meanwhile, was once a decent slot cornerback with the Jets, but he has struggled over the past two seasons and subsequently played just 536 total snaps in 2024 and 2025 combined. Now attempting to make a transition to safety, Carter is still only going into his age 27 season and has some bounce back potential, but it is tough to know what to expect out of a player who hasn’t even been decent since 2023 and is now learning a new position. He will probably be a better option than Epps, but only by default.

Along with the loser of the Epps/Carter competition, other depth options in this secondary include Kelee Ringo, a 2023 4th round pick who has mostly been mediocre across 623 career snaps, and Jonathan Jones, a veteran free agent addition who was a solid starter in his prime, but who has been a liability across snap counts of 712 and 484 over the past two seasons and who now heads into his age 33 season. Having Mitchell and DeJean as their top-2 defensive backs elevates this group significantly and the addition of Tariq Woolen and potential improvement of Andrew Mukaba makes this a less top heavy group than last year, when everyone except DeJean and Mitchell was a liability, but this is still a top heavy group with at least one weak spot in sub packages.

Grade: B+

Kickers

Jake Elliott was once a reliable kicker for the Eagles, adding 19.55 points above average in his first seven seasons in the league from 2017-2023. However, in the past two seasons, he has had back-to-back well below average seasons, costing the Eagles 8.20 points in 2024 and 6.87 points in 2025. This looks like a new trend after two seasons and it seems unlikely he will bounce all the way back to his old form, but Elliott isn’t totally over the hill for a kicker, going into his age 31 season, and could bounce back at least somewhat in 2026. At the very least, the Eagles still seem to believe in him, not adding any competition for him this off-season.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Eagles’ offense should be better coached in 2026 than 2025, when offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo was a liability and probably at least partially caused multiple players to have down seasons. However, new offensive coordinator Sean Mannion is still a relative unknown and the loss of AJ Brown makes this offense much less talented. They also are unlikely to have the same success in close games as last season, when they went 8-4 in one-score games. Their defense looks likely to remain one of the best units in the league and this team still looks like the best in their division, but their offense might once again hold them back from being true contenders.

Prediction: 11-6, 1st in NFC East

Houston Texans 2026 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2026 NFL Season Previews, Texans

Quarterback

The Texans went 12-5 last season, but there are reasons to believe they won’t win that many games again in 2026. For one, their turnover margin of +17, 2nd best in the league last season, is not sustainable year-to-year, as turnover margin is one of the least predictive metrics year-to-year. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Texans ranked just 14th last season, which is much more predictive year-to-year and which suggests they were not as good as their record would suggest. On top of that, while their defense was elite, ranking 4th in schedule adjusted efficiency, their offense ranked just 28th and offensive performance is much more predictive year-to-year than defensive performance, meaning chances are higher that their offense will remain one of the worst in the league than the chances that their defense will remain one of the best.

As with most bad offenses, a lot of the blame can fall on the quarterback position. CJ Stroud, selected 2nd overall in 2023, looked like a future star when he completed 63.9% of his passes for an average of 8.23 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions as a rookie, en route to winning Offensive Rookie of the Year, but he has regressed to 63.8% completion, 7.09 YPA, and 39 touchdowns to 20 interceptions over the past two seasons combined. Even when Stroud played well as a rookie, this offense wasn’t that good, ranking 16th in schedule adjusted efficiency, but they fell to 23rd in 2024, before being a bottom-5 unit in 2025.

Going forward, it is tough to know what to predict from Stroud. He is only going into his age 25 season, has already shown a high ceiling, and if he can regain his rookie year form, that will go a long way towards keeping this team in the playoff picture in 2026, even if their turnover margin and defensive performance aren’t as good as a year ago, but with that ceiling only being achieved in one of three seasons in the league, it seems more likely than not that his 2026 season will more closely resemble his 2024 and 2025 season than his 2023 season.

Stroud will continue being backed up by Davis Mills, a solid backup option who wasn’t really a downgrade from Stroud in the three games he started in Stroud’s absence last season. In 28 career starts, Mills has completed 61.8% of his passes for an average of 6.40 YPA, 40 touchdowns, and 26 interceptions. He went just 5-19-1 in his first stint as a starter from 2021-2022, but those were his first two seasons in the league and he had a really poor roster around him, so the team’s struggles weren’t really his fault. Still only in his age 28 season, he could wind up getting another chance to start somewhere soon, perhaps even in Houston, if Stroud can’t turn it around.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

Along with their quarterback play, offensive line play was a big part of the problem for the Texans in 2025, as it has been for the last few seasons. In terms of win rate, the Texans ranked 30th in pass blocking and 32nd in run blocking. Ten different players made starts upfront for the Texans last season as they unsuccessfully tried to find a combination that worked. The Texans changed things up some more this season, bringing back just six of those ten and adding another five new options this off-season, but it is unclear if this offensive line will actually be significantly better.

Right guard Ed Ingram was the Texans’ best offensive lineman last season and the Texans prioritized bringing him back as a free agent, signing him to a 3-year, 37.5 million dollar deal. Ingram was only a slightly above average starter last season, as he was only the Texans’ best offensive lineman by default. He is also a one-year wonder in terms of playing at that level, struggling in each of his first three seasons in the league as a starter prior to last season. Ingram was a 2nd round pick in 2022, so he has always had talent and it is possible he has permanently turned a corner and will remain a solid starter, still only going into his age 27 season, but there is at least some possibility of regression in 2026.

Ingram is likely one of two players locked into a starting role on this offensive line, with the other being left tackle Aireontae Ersery, who started all 16 games he played last season, including 15 at left tackle after being the week 1 starter at right tackle. Ersery wasn’t particularly good though, playing at an overall slightly below average level, and is mostly locked into the starting job because of the lack of a better option and because of his potential as a 2025 2nd round pick. Ersery could definitely be better in his second season in the league, but that is not a guarantee and unless he gets a lot better he is an underwhelming option at the offensive line’s most important position.

The right tackle job will probably go to free agent addition Braden Smith, who signed a to 2-year, 20 million dollar deal this off-season, suggesting the Texans view him as at least the heavy favorite to be a starter. Smith used to be an above average starting option, but he has missed 16 games over the past three seasons, his performance has declined to only the level of only an average starter over the past two seasons, and now he heads into his age 30 season, so he is unlikely to bounce back to his old form and could decline further and/or miss more time.

If Smith misses time, the right tackle job would likely go to either Trent Brown or Blake Fisher, who could also compete with Smith for the starting job. Brown is an experienced starter with 103 starts in 11 seasons in the league, seeing significant action at both left and right tackle, and he was still decent in 7 starts last season, but he is now going into his age 33 season and has a concerning injury history that has cost him multiple games in 8 of 11 seasons in the league. 

The 1-year, 5.5 million dollar contract the Texans gave Brown to stay this off-season suggests the Texans at least value him as a solid swing tackle and there is a good chance he makes multiple starts this season. Blake Fisher, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2024 and could still have untapped upside, only going into his age 23 season, but he has been underwhelming across 674 snaps thus far in his career and is probably behind both Smith and Brown on the depth chart.

At left guard and center, the Texans will have a competition between free agent addition Wyatt Teller, only a left guard option, first round pick Keylan Rutledge, a collegiate guard who may be asked to move to center, incumbent center Jake Andrews, and free agent addition Evan Brown, who has experience at both guard and center in his career. Teller signed a 2-year, 16 million dollar deal that, like Braden Smith’s deal, suggests the Texans at least view him as a heavy favorite to start. He has started 101 games, all at guard, in eight seasons in the league, but his performance has declined from that of an above average starter to an average starter over the past two seasons, he has missed time with injury in six of eight seasons in the league, and he is now heading into his age 32 season.

In the likely scenario that Teller starts at left guard, the rookie Keylan Rutledge will probably start at center because that is his best chance to start as a rookie, but he doesn’t have any experience there, he was a bit of a reach in the first round, and the Texans won’t hand the rookie a starting job, so it is possible the center job either goes to Andrews, a 2023 4th round pick who was mediocre in 16 starts as a first time starter last season, or free agent addition Evan Brown, who has mostly been a decent starter in 68 career starts (53 at guard and 15 at center), but who is now heading into his age 30 season. 

The Texans also added guard Febechi Nwaiwu in the 4th round of the draft, but it seems unlikely he is a serious candidate to start week one, and they still have Jarrett Patterson, a 2023 6th round pick who has started 21 games in three seasons in the league, 17 at center and 4 at guard, but who has consistently been mediocre regardless of where he has played and who probably also isn’t a serious candidate to start week one. 

The Texans spent significant resources trying to improve this offensive line, including their first round pick and two significant contracts to free agents, but both free agents are injury prone and on the wrong side of 30 and the rookie was a reach who is not guaranteed to start in week 1. The Texans at least have options on the offensive line, but it remains to be seen if any of them will be better than an average starter and the result could be another year with a bunch of different offensive line combinations and overall below average results. 

Grade: C+

Running Backs

The Texans’ also struggled in the run game last season, ranking 29th in the NFL with 3.90 yards per carry. Part of the problem was the blocking, but the running backs themselves were part of the problem, as their two leaders in carries, Woody Marks with 196 and Nick Chubb with 122, averaged just 2.59 yards per carry before contact and 2.69 yards per carry before contact respectively and had missed tackle rates of 20.5% and 13.8% respectively.

The Texans addressed this need by trading for David Montgomery from the Lions, giving up a 4th round pick, among other late round picks, as well as backup offensive lineman Juice Scruggs. In seven seasons in the league, Montgomery has 1,477 carries for 6,115 yards (4.14 YPC) and 59 touchdowns, while averaging 2.87 yards per carry after contact, a 20.3% missed tackle rate, a 48.0% carry success rate, and 1.13 yards per route run. 

Montgomery’s workload and the caliber of his blocking will probably be more similar in Houston to what it was in Chicago than what it was in Detroit, when he averaged 3.94 YPC and a 45.2% carry success rate on 229 carries per season, as opposed to 4.46 YPC and a 52.5% carry success rate on 187 carries per season in Detroit, but he should still be at least somewhat of an upgrade for the Texans over what they had last season.

Nick Chubb was not retained as a free agent, but Marks, a 2025 4th round pick, is still around as a change of pace backup and could be better in that role in his second season in the league than he was as the lead back as a rookie. He should especially benefit from the lighter workload because he is a bit undersized at 5-10 208 and frequently left the field with injuries as a rookie, even if he only ended up missing one full game. The Texans also have 2024 6th round pick Jahwar Jordan as the third string running back and he flashed potential with 4.49 YPC on the first 43 carries of his career last season as an injury fill-in when Marks and/or Chubb missed time. He figures to remain an insurance option in 2026. This is a decent but unspectacular backfield overall.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

The Texans’ best offensive player is wide receiver Nico Collins, who has been one of the best wide receivers in the league over the past three seasons. Despite an inconsistent quarterback under center, Collins has averaged a 89/1384/9 slash line per 17 games since the start of the 2023 season on an average of 133 targets per 17 games (10.40 yards per target) and 3.75 yards per route run. The one concern with Collins is durability, as he’s missed multiple games in all five seasons in the league with 19 total games missed in his career, but when healthy he is as good as almost any wide receiver in the league and he’s still very much in his prime in his age 27 season.

The problem is the Texans have lacked a good #2 receiver opposite him in the past couple seasons, but there are reasons for optimism this season. For one, the Texans have a pair of second year wide receivers who showed promise as rookies and could take a step forward in year two. Second round pick Jayden Higgins and third round pick Jaylen Noel both averaged depth 1.45 yards per route run averages as rookies, though Higgins is likely to be the better receiver in 2026, as he is more experienced (671 snaps vs. 304 snaps last season) and was drafted higher because of his higher upside.

The Texans could also get Tank Dell back from injury. Dell was a good #2 receiver for the Texans in 2023, with a 47/709/7 slash line on just 75 targets (9.45 yards per target) in just 11 games, while averaging 2.22 yards per route run, and it looked like the 2023 3rd round pick would form a great duo with Collins long-term, but injuries have completely derailed his career. Dell’s rookie season was ended early by a broken leg and he did not seem like himself for most of 2024 upon his return, managing just a 51/667/3 slash line on 81 targets (8.23 yards per target) in 14 games, while averaging 1.44 yards per route run. 

Right when Dell started looking like himself again down the stretch in 2024, he suffered a brutal multi ligament tear in his knee in week 16, missing the rest of the 2024 season and the entirety of the 2025 season. Dell has now suffered two major leg injuries in his career, which is especially a concern for an undersized wide receiver (5-10 165) whose game is extremely dependent on his elite speed. What the Texans can get out of Dell in 2026 and beyond remains to be seen and it is far from a guarantee that he is ready for the start of the season, but at the very least the fact that Dell seems likely to play at all this season could be a little bit of a boost for this offense. 

The Texans also have Xavier Hutchinson, who actually finished 2nd among Texans wide receivers in snaps last season with 672, with Dell out and the rookies being eased into action. Hutchinson was very underwhelming though, managing just a 35/428/3 slash line on 57 targets (7.51 yards per target), with 1.07 yards per route run. The 2023 6th round pick has averaged just 0.76 yards per route run in his career and, with Dell expected to return to action and both Higgins and Noel likely to see higher snap counts in their second season in the league, Hutchinson could be as far down as 5th on the depth chart this season, which would be a good thing for this offense.

Dalton Schultz remains as the starter at tight end. In six seasons in the league as a starter, Schultz has been decent, but unspectacular, averaging a 69/691/5 slash line per 17 games and 1.33 yards per route run. He’s going into his age 30 season in 2026 and could start to decline, but the Texans should get more out of their wide receivers this season, so it seems unlikely that Schultz will rank second on the team in targets (a career high 106) like he did a year ago, which would be for the best. The Texans also drafted Schultz’s potential future successor Marlin Klein in the second round of the draft and he could cut into Schultz’s playing time somewhat as a rookie. 

Besides Klein, other depth options at tight end include veteran free agent addition Foster Moreau, a decent career backup with an average of 1.26 yards per route run, incumbent backup Cade Stover, a 2024 4th round pick who has averaged just 0.97 yards per route run in two seasons in the league, and Brevin Jordan, who showed promise with 1.59 yards per route run as the backup tight end in 2023, but has subsequently missed back-to-back years with ACL tears and only has a career 1.19 yards per route run. Klein shouldn’t have too hard of a time beating out any of those options for the primary backup role behind Schultz. The arrow is pointing up for this receiving corps, but much of the reason for that is expected jumps from young players and the return of Tank Dell, all of whom come with some downside.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

As I mentioned earlier, defensive performance tends to be more inconsistent on a year-to-year basis than offensive performance, but the Texans do have a better chance than most elite defenses of being elite again in 2026 because they were able to keep most of the same personnel, with all of their top-11 in terms of snaps played a year ago returning. The player who played the most for this defense that is no longer there is interior defender Tim Settle, who played 383 snaps in 12 games. Settle fared pretty well in that role, providing solid run defense and solid pass rush (7.9% pressure rate), but the Texans replaced him with second round pick Kayden McDonald and free agent Logan Hall, who they signed to a 2-year, 13.75 million deal. 

A second round pick in 2022, Hall was below average on an average of 494 snaps per season in his first three seasons in the league, but he took a step forward in his fourth season in the league in 2025, playing a career high 611 snaps and providing solid run defense and pass rush (8.9% pressure rate). Hall could regress a little in 2026, but he is also only going into his age 26 season, so he could have permanently turned a corner and he probably won’t have to play as many snaps as he did last season, so he could easily be a solid rotational player, similar to Settle.

The Texans retained Sheldon Rankins as a free agent on a 2-year, 17 million dollar deal and he figures to remain the team’s leader in snaps among interior defenders, after doing so with 623 snaps last season. Rankins is a consistently above average player, particularly playing well as a pass rusher, with 33.5 sacks, 43 hits, and a 8.2% pressure rate in 133 career games, including 3 sacks, 5 hits, and a 9.2% pressure rate in 17 games last season. The concerns are that he is going into his age 32 season and that he has a significant injury history, as last season was his first since 2018 that he didn’t miss any time and, in total, he has missed 32 games in ten seasons in the league. 

The good news is this group is deeper than a year ago with both Hall and McDonald being added to replace Settle, so they might not need as much out of Rankins as they got a year ago. Along with Rankins, Hall, and McDonald, who figure to rotate heavily as the Texans’ top-3 interior defenders, the Texans also have Tommy Togiai, who was above average across 459 snaps last season, especially excelling as a pass rusher, with 1.5 sacks, 3 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate. 

Whether or not that continues in 2026 remains to be seen, as Togiai struggled across 599 snaps in the first four seasons of his career prior to 2025. He is a former 4th round pick and he is only going into his age 27 season, so it is possible he has somewhat permanently turned a corner, but I wouldn’t expect him to be quite as good in 2026. Still, this is a deep position group, even if they lack true high end talent and have some players who might not be as good as they were a year ago.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The strength of this high level defense is the edge defender duo of Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, who were both among the best edge defenders in the league last season. Anderson, selected 3rd overall in 2023, has totaled 30 sacks, 34 hits, and a 16.3% pressure rate in 46 games in three seasons in the league, while consistently playing at a high level against the run, including 12 sacks, 11 hits, and a 19.4% pressure rate in 17 games last season. At this point, it would be a surprise if he didn’t at some point win a Defensive Player of the Year award, if not multiple, still only going into his age 25 season.

Hunter is not as good, but only by default. In 153 career games, he has 114.5 sacks, 78 hits, and a 13.4% pressure rate, while consistently providing above average run defense, and in 2025 he had 15 sacks, 9 hits, and a 16.6% pressure rate in 17 games. The concern with him is that he is going into his age 32 season, but he has yet to decline and, even if he does decline somewhat in 2026, he should still remain a well above average player at the very least.

A small concern at this position group is their lack of depth. Anderson and Hunter played 694 snaps and 728 snaps respectively last season and could probably play more if they need to, so depth isn’t needed that much as long as they are healthy, but if either misses time, the Texans would be in trouble. Derek Barnett, who was solid across 350 snaps as the top reserve last season, is no longer on the team, leaving Dylan Horton, who struggled across 245 snaps last season, as the top reserve option. A 2023 4th round pick, Horton has provided below average play across 211 snaps per season in three seasons in the league, including a mere 7.9% pressure rate. He would obviously be a big downgrade from either Anderson or Hunter if he had to fill in for them.

The Texans also signed Dominique Robinson, another underwhelming backup option, this off-season. A 5th round pick in 2022, Robinson has been below average across 273 snaps per season in four seasons in the league, struggling against the run and adding just a 5.9% pressure rate. Other options are 2024 7th round pick Solomon Byrd, who has played 20 snaps in two seasons in the league, and Ali Gaye, who has played 214 snaps in three seasons in the league. As bad as their depth is, Anderson and Hunter are such a good starting duo that it is hard to not consider this one of, if not the best edge defender group in the league.

Grade: A

Linebackers

Every down linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair is also part of the reason for this defense’s success, playing at an above average level in each of the past three seasons. Still in his relative prime in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2026. Unfortunately, the rest of this linebacking corps is not nearly as good. Henry To’oTo’o has been marginal at best as the starter next to Al-Shaair over the past two seasons, on snap counts of 830 and 818. The 2023 5th round pick is only in his age 25 season, so he could have some untapped upside, but that is not a guarantee.

Meanwhile, EJ Speed, who was already a liability as the third linebacker, across 429 snaps last season, suffered a quad injury this off-season and is questionable for the start of the season. Even if he is able to play at the beginning of the season, he could be beaten out for his job by 4th round rookie Wade Woodaz, although if Woodaz wins the job it would probably say more about Speed than it would about Woodaz’s NFL readiness. Al-Shaair elevates the overall grade of this group, but this is still only a slightly above average group.

Grade: B+

Secondary

In the secondary, the Texans have a trio of high level players and all are relatively young. Cornerback Derek Stingley was a borderline All-Pro caliber player in both 2023 and 2024 and, while he took a little bit of a step back in 2025, he was still an above average player and his relatively down year was the result of an oblique injury that didn’t cost him any games, but limited him in several. The third overall pick in 2022, Stingley is still only going into his age 25 season, so he could easily bounce back in 2026, though it’s worth noting that last season was his third out of four in the league in which he either missed significant time or was limited by an injury.

With Stingley having a bit of a down year, fellow starting cornerback Kamari Lassiter was actually the Texans’ best cornerback, playing at a borderline All-Pro level, after a solid rookie season in 2024 in which he played 799 snaps. A 2nd round pick in 2024, Lassiter is still only going into his age 23 season, which makes him younger than a lot of rookies, and he looks likely to be at least a well above average cornerback if not an All-Pro caliber player for years to come. 

Hybrid safety/slot cornerback Jalen Pitre also played at a borderline All-Pro level in 2025, after playing at an above average level in 2024. Pitre, a 2nd round pick in 2022, took a couple years to develop, but he is now a consistently above average player with the upside to be an All-Pro caliber player for years to come, going into his age 27 season. In base packages, he will start at safety opposite Calen Bullock, who is not as good as the Texans’ top-3 defensive backs, but who was a solid starter in 2025, after playing at an average level across 977 snaps as a 3rd round rookie in 2024. Still only in his age 23 season, Bullock could be even better in his third season in the league in 2026.

In base packages, the Texans figure to use three safety sets regularly, allowing Pitre to play on the slot. Unfortunately their third safety is free agent addition Reed Blankenship, who has started all 46 games he has played in the past three seasons for the Eagles, but has consistently been a liability, especially in coverage. He played on some high level defenses in Philadelphia and, like the Eagles, the Texans have enough talent to cover for Blankenship, especially with Blankenship being in a pure sub package role, but his presence in sub packages does give opposing offenses at least one player to target in the passing game, a liability the Texans did not have last season. 

Second year cornerback Jaylin Smith also figures to have a sub package role, although not nearly as big as Blankenship’s. A 3rd round pick, Smith has talent and upside, but only played 31 snaps last season, primarily due to injury, so it is tough to know what to expect from him in 2026, even in a limited role. Depth concerns hurt their overall grade somewhat, but this is a high level secondary with multiple elite starters.

Grade: A-

Kickers

Ka’imi Fairbairn has been the Texans’ primary kicker since 2017 and he has developed into one of the best kickers in the league, adding 25.18 points above an average kicker over the past four seasons, including 12.86 in 2025, good for second best in the NFL. He is going into his age 32 season, but kickers can continue playing at an elite level well into their 30s, so I wouldn’t expect any decline from him, other than the typical variance inherent to the kicker position. He should remain one of the best kickers in the league in 2026.

Grade: A

Conclusion

The Texans finished significantly worse in schedule adjusted efficiency last season, 14th, than their record, 12-5, would suggest, which is not a good sign, as schedule adjusted efficiency tends to be much more predictive on a year-to-year basis than win/loss record. On top of that, offensive performance is much more predictive on a year-to-year basis than defensive performance, meaning chances are higher that their offense will remain one of the worst in the league than the chances that their defense will remain one of the best. They should still be in the mix for a playoff spot, but I wouldn’t expect them to win as many games as they did a year ago.

Prediction: 8-9, 3rd in AFC South

New York Giants 2026 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2026 NFL Season Previews, Giants

Quarterback

The Giants have been one of the worst teams in the league in recent years, tied for the fewest wins in the league since 2017 with 44, including eight of nine seasons of 6 wins or fewer. A big part of the problem used to be that they hadn’t found the right quarterback, but that might have changed, with 2025 25th overall pick Jaxson Dart showing a lot of promise as a rookie. He only made 12 starts, sitting behind veteran Russell Wilson for the first three weeks of the season and then missing two games due to injury, but when he did play this offense was noticeably better than when he didn’t and he completed 63.7% of his passes for an average of 6.70 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, despite an underwhelming supporting cast, while also rushing for 487 yards and 9 touchdowns on 86 carries (5.67 YPC). 

Dart’s play did not translate into a lot of wins, as he went just 4-8, but the Giants went 0-5 without him and a lot of the blame for the losses falls on his supporting cast. Now going into his second season in the league, Dart could take another step forward, but his supporting cast remains an issue, which I will get more into later. Another issue is Dart’s durability. He only missed two games with one concussion last season, but he was checked for several others throughout the season. As with most dual threat quarterbacks, it is a double edged sword as the thing that makes him good is also the thing that costs him games. If he can stay on the field in 2026, he should continue impressing, but he probably has a higher chance of injury than the average quarterback.

If Dart misses time in 2026, the Giants would turn back to Jameis Winston, who replaced him when he was hurt last season. Winston is plenty experienced, with 89 career starts, and he makes plays downfield, with a career 7.64 YPA average, but he also makes plays for the other team, with 113 interceptions to 156 touchdowns in his career, which is why he is a backup. Now in his age 32 season, he is who he is at this stage of his career, but he’s a solid backup option all things considered. The Giants will just have to hope he doesn’t see action.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

Wan’Dale Robinson was the Giants’ leading receiver last season and he had what looks like a solid 92/1014/4 slash line with 1.87 yards per route run, until you realize it took him the 8th most targets in the league (140) to get there. Robinson left this off-season though and, while he was not as good as his total production suggested last season, he was still better than anyone the Giants added to replace him and anyone else on the roster, with one exception.

That exception is Malik Nabers, who was selected 6th overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, subsequently had a 109/1204/7 slash line and 2.16 yards per route run on 170 targets as a rookie, despite poor quarterback play, but then he tore his ACL and other ligaments in week 4 of 2025. Nabers’ recovery has also not gone according to plan, including a second surgery this off-season, so even if he is ready for week 1 of this season, it seems unlikely he will be 100% right away. 

Nabers got hurt in Dart’s first start last season, so we have barely seen what the two of them can do together and the upside they have together is very high, but we might not see that full upside until 2027 at the earliest. The Giants especially need Nabers to at least be on the field because the rest of this wide receiver group is a big concern, consisting of Darius Slayton, a marginal at best veteran with a career 1.34 yards per route run average, 3rd round rookie Malachi Fields, and free agent additions Darnell Mooney and Calvin Austin. 

Mooney has had some success in his career, with a 81/1055/4 slash line on 1.72 yards per route run in 2021 and a 64/992/5 slash line on 1.88 yards per route run in 2024, but the 6-year veteran has been so inconsistent that he has averaged just 1.39 yards per route run in his career, despite those highs. Last season was arguably his worst, when he turned 72 targets into just a 32/443/1 slash line and 0.97 yards per route run, in part due to injury, but also likely due to his own inconsistency. Meanwhile, Calvin Austin has averaged just 1.21 yards per route run with 1,100 total receiving yards in four seasons in the league since being drafted in the 4th round in 2022. Slayton, Fields, Mooney, and Austin will compete for roles behind Nabers in a very underwhelming position group.

The Giants did sign tight end Isaiah Likely to a 3-year, 40 million dollar deal in free agency, making him the 5th highest paid tight end in the league in average annual salary, but that could prove to be an overpay. The 2022 4th round pick has averaged a decent 1.43 yards per route run in his career, but that has come in a part-time role (505 snaps per season) and he might not be able to continue even that level of play into a starting role, let alone become the above average starter the Giants are paying him to be. Likely will be backed up by Theo Johnson, the incumbent starter at tight end who has averaged just 1.08 yards per route run in two seasons in the league, since being selected in the 4th round in 2024. This is a very underwhelming position group that would be one of the worst in the league if Nabers misses more time.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

The Giants are also getting running back Cam Skattebo back from a major injury, as the 2025 4th round pick had his rookie year cut short by a broken leg suffered in week 8, after 101 carries in 8 games, including 96 carries in his final six full games before the injury. Skattebo isn’t as good as Nabers, but he has a better chance of returning to form in 2026 and he showed promise in limited action as a rookie. He only averaged 4.06 YPC, but he had 3.04 yards per carry after contact, a 21.8% missed tackle rate, and a 50.5% carry success rate, while averaging 1.54 yards per route run. He’s still relatively unproven, but he could be a solid lead back.

In Skattebo’s absence, Tyrone Tracy regained the lead back role he had for most of 2024 and for the start of 2025. A 5th round pick in 2024, Tracy has a higher career YPC than Skattebo, averaging 4.29 YPC across 368 carries, but his peripheral stats are not as good, as he has averaged 2.76 yards per carry after contact, a 16.0% missed tackle rate, a 44.6% carry success rate, and 0.98 yards per route run, all of which are below Skattebo’s numbers in those same metrics. He only had 25 carries in the final four games he played while Skattebo was healthy last season and, while the Giants may ease Skattebo back in this season, Tracy is likely to be no more than a change of pace back for most of the year. 

The Giants also still have Devin Singletary, who ended up with 119 carries last season because of Skattebo’s injury, but he has averaged just 3.77 YPC on 232 carries with 2.61 yards per carry after contact, a 17.7% missed tackle rate, a 48.3% carry success rate, and 0.96 yards per route run in the past two seasons and would be the clear #3 back if Skattebo is healthy, only staying on the roster after taking a pay cut down to 1.3 million from his originally scheduled 5.25 million. With Skattebo returning, this backfield has upside, but he is still unproven.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

Another key player on this offense with a history of injuries is left tackle Andrew Thomas, who has missed 27 games in the past five seasons. Thomas was actually relatively healthy last season, only missing four games, while playing at a career best level, but that might not continue in 2026. Thomas was one of the best left tackles in the league last season and he is by far the Giants’ best offensive lineman, so if he misses more time this season than he did in 2025 or if he doesn’t repeat his career best level when on the field, that will hurt this offense.

Also a concern for this offense is the fact that right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor is going into his age 32 season. Eluemunor has been a decent starter for the past four seasons (62 starts) and hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, in fact having one of the best seasons of his career in 2025, but there is a good chance he declines in 2026 or at least doesn’t repeat one of the best seasons in his career, which would also hurt this offensive line. Fortunately, the Giants did use the 10th overall pick on Francis Mauigoa, a potential long-term replacement for Eluemunor and an insurance option in case Thomas misses time. In the short-term, Mauigoa will also upgrade the guard position as long as he isn’t needed at tackle.

Mauigoa figures to start at guard opposite either Jon Runyan, the incumbent left guard, or free agent addition Daniel Faalele. Both have experience, with Runyan making 79 starts in the past five seasons and Faalele making all 34 starts in the last two seasons, but both have never been any more than marginal starters. Center John Michael Schmitz is also a marginal starter at best, while making 41 starts in the past three seasons. 

Along with either Runyan or Faalele, depth options include 2025 5th round pick Marcus Mbow, a hybrid guard/tackle who was underwhelming in 325 snaps as a rookie, veteran guard/center Lucas Patrick, who has made 65 starts in nine seasons in the league but who has generally struggled and is now going into his age 33 season, as well as 6th round rookie tackle JC Davis. The addition of Mauigoa helps this offensive line, but Andrew Thomas’ injury history and Jermaine Eluemunor’s age are both concerns.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The Giants defense was a liability last season, ranking 25th in schedule adjusted efficiency, and figures to remain one this year. Replacing overmatched defensive coordinator Shane Bowen with Dennard Wilson helps this unit, but they are also objectively less talented than a year ago due to the loss of Dexter Lawrence, who they traded to get the 10th overall pick from the Bengals that they used on Mauigoa. Even in a down year in 2025, Lawrence was an above average interior defender across 754 snaps. He was also by far their best interior defender, with all other interior defenders who played significant snaps for the Giants last season being liabilities.

To try to replace Lawrence, the Giants signed a pair of veterans in DJ Reader and Shelby Harris. Both have been above average players in the past, but they have seen better days, going into their age 32 and age 35 season respectively. Reader played 583 snaps last season, provided solid run defense, and had a decent 6.3% pressure rate. Harris, meanwhile, played 511 snaps last season and finished with 1 sack, 4 hits, and a 7.3% pressure rate, while playing adequate run defense. 

Their ages are obviously a concern, but Reader and Harris could at least be decent rotational players for another year in 2026, which makes them the Giants’ two best interior defenders by default. Behind them, their best option is probably Darius Alexander. He was a disaster across 394 snaps last season, but the 2025 3rd round pick was only a rookie and still at least has some upside going into his second season in the league. 

The Giants also have Chauncey Golston, a hybrid edge/interior defender who could play more on the interior in obvious passing situations this season. He’s been a decent rotational player in five seasons in the league on an average of 26.0 snaps per game in 74 games, while recording a 8.4% pressure rate in that stretch, which is not bad considering that he rushes the passer from the interior somewhat frequently. Other depth options include Leki Fotu, who has struggled mightily on an average of 282 snaps per season in six seasons in the league and 6th round rookie Bobby Jamison-Travis. This looks like a well below average position group overall.

Grade: C+

Edge Defenders

The Giants’ edge defender group was the strength of their defense last season. Veteran Brian Burns had 16.5 sacks, 13 hits, and a 11.3% pressure rate in 17 games, giving him 63.5 sacks, 70 hits, and a 12.1% pressure rate in 98 games in the past six seasons. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, Burns should remain a high level pass rusher in 2026, though he does leave something to be desired as a run stopper. Burns was joined by 2025 3rd overall pick Abdul Carter, who had an impressive rookie season, particularly excelling as a pass rusher, only totaling 4 sacks, but adding 19 hits, and a 13.0% pressure rate. He could be even better in year two and should continue forming a dynamic duo with Burns.

Top reserve Kayvon Thibodeaux is also a former high draft pick, selected 5th overall in 2022. He hasn’t lived up to expectations, providing only decent play as a run defender and pass rusher (9.5% career pressure rate), on an average of 702 snaps per season, but he is still more than qualified to be a #3 edge defender, a role he played 494 snaps in last season. The Giants also used the 5th overall pick in this year’s draft on Arvell Reese, who can rush the passer off the edge in obvious passing situations, though it seems likely that the hybrid player will begin his career primarily as an off ball linebacker. Chauncey Golston, as I mentioned, is also in the mix, though he will probably play more on the interior because they need him more there. Even with Reese and Golston likely to see significant action at other positions, this is a high level edge defender group.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

As I mentioned, Arvell Reese is likely to play primarily at linebacker as a rookie and he has the talent to be an above average starter right away, though he could struggle through some growing pains in year one. He will start next to free agent addition Tremaine Edmunds. Edmunds has mostly been an average starter in his career, but both he and Reese should be upgrades over the Giants’ primary linebackers last season, Bobby Okereke (1,104 snaps), Darius Muasau (453 snaps), and Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles (225 snaps), who were all below average.

Okereke was released this off-season to free up money to sign Edmunds, Flannigan-Fowles left as a free agent, while Muasau will compete for the #3 linebacker job with veteran Micah McFadden, who missed all but 11 snaps last season with a foot injury. Muasau, a 2024 6th round pick, has been mediocre across 888 total snaps in two seasons in the league, while McFadden has started 29 of 31 games played over the past three seasons, but has also mostly been a liability. Both are not bad options as a third linebacker though, in a remade linebacking corps that at least should be better than it was a year ago.

Grade: B

Secondary

The Giants’ secondary is largely the same in 2026 as it was in 2025, which is not a good thing. The biggest change is the Giants let Cor’Dale Flott leave as a free agent and replaced him with Greg Newsome. Flott was a decent, but unspectacular starter across 798 snaps in 14 games last season. Newsome has more upside, being drafted in the 1st round in 2021 and having above average seasons in 2022 and 2023, but he also has more downside, now being two seasons removed from his last above average season and coming off of his worst season of his career, leading to him being traded by the Browns to the Jaguars and then subsequently benched down the stretch by the Jaguars when his play did not improve. 

Still only in his age 26 season, Newsome has some bounce back potential, but he easily could remain a liability, in which case he would be a downgrade from Flott. Another potential difference in this secondary is potentially better health from Paulson Adebo, who missed five games due to injury last season. However, Adebo has missed 21 games in the past four seasons combined, so the Giants getting more games out of him this season is far from a guarantee. 

Adebo is still in his age 27 season and he has shown the upside to be an above average starter when healthy, but his durability issues have made him very inconsistent and his last above average season came in 2023. Adebo was only an average starter in 2025 and the most likely scenario is he remains only an average starter in 2026 and misses more time with injury at some point, though there is at least some upside with him. The Giants also added more insurance at cornerback in the draft, using a second round pick on Colton Hood, who could find himself starting as a rookie if Newsome struggles or Adebo misses time.

With Newsome, Adebo, and Hood all being primarily outside cornerbacks, Andru Phillips is locked in as the slot cornerback for the third straight season, with 82.7% of his snaps coming on the slot in his first two seasons in the league. A 3rd round pick in 2024, Phillips was solid in that role as a rookie, regressed a little bit in 2025, but is still only going into his age 25 season and could bounce back or even have his best season yet in his third season in the league in 2026.

Jevon Holland and Tyler Nubin remain at safety, where both were liabilities as the starter last season. Holland has otherwise been a decent starter in his career, while starting 71 games in five seasons in the league, and he is still only going into his age 26 season, so he has at least some bounce back potential. Nubin was a second round pick in 2024 and could still have untapped upside, only in his age 25 season in his third season in the league in 2026, but he has struggled across 24 career starts and could face competition for his starting job from free agent addition Ar’Darius Washington. 

An undrafted free agent in 2021, Washington has only played 932 snaps in five seasons in the league, but 726 of those came in 2024, when he was an above average player in what looked like a breakout season. Washington then subsequently tore his achilles and was limited to just 61 snaps in 2025, but he is still only going into his age 27 season and, even though he is a complete one-year wonder, he could have at least some bounce back potential in 2026, another year removed from the injury. Still, this looks likely to be a below average secondary again this season, even if they may be marginally better than a year ago.

Grade: C+

Kickers

Kicker was a position of weakness for the Giants last season, as they somehow had five different kickers see action for them last season, none of whom were particularly good. To try to solve this issue, the Giants signed Jason Sanders in free agency. Sanders missed all of 2025 with a hip injury, but has generally been an above average kicker in his career, adding 14.00 points above average in 116 career games in eight seasons in the league, including 7.66 in his most recent action in 2024, which ranked 7th in the league that season. 

Coming off of a major hip injury and going into his age 31 season, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Sanders wasn’t as good as normal in 2026, but kickers can perform well into their 30s if they stay healthy, so there is a good chance Sanders is a clear upgrade over what they had at kicker last season. If not, the Giants did keep Ben Sauls, a 2025 undrafted free agent who only kicked in three games last season, but who was their best kicker, making all 8 field goals and all 7 extra points, albeit with a long of just 45 yards. He’s still really unproven though and is only an insurance option behind Sanders, who they are hoping can provide much needed stability at the position after what happened last season.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Giants are heading in the right direction with Jaxson Dart finally looking like the franchise quarterback they have lacked for years, but he probably won’t be good enough in his second season in the league to carry what remains a subpar roster to a playoff spot. Outside of Dart, the Giants’ only three above average starters on offense are all either coming off of a major injury or have missed significant time with injury in their career, while their defense lacks any above average players outside of their strength at the edge defender position. This looks likely to be another below .500 season for the Giants, although the arrow is pointing up by default for a team that has been one of the worst in the league in recent years.

Prediction: 6-11, 4th in NFC East

Kansas City Chiefs 2026 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2026 NFL Season Previews, Chiefs

Quarterback

The Chiefs were the most disappointing team in the league in 2025. After three straight Super Bowl appearances, including Super Bowl victories at the end of the 2022 and 2023 seasons, the Chiefs fell all the way to 6-11 last season, leaving them far out of the post-season. The biggest reason for their sharp decline was close losses. After going 52-19 in one-score games in the first seven seasons of Patrick Mahomes’ career from 2018-2024, the Chiefs fell all the way to 1-9 in one-score games in 2025.

Injuries were part of the problem too. The Chiefs didn’t have more total injuries than most teams, but injuries disproportionately affected their best players and at the worst time. The Chiefs’ schedule was relatively harder in the first half of the season and they were relatively healthy then. When it came time for the easier part of their schedule, they were missing several key players on both sides of the ball and couldn’t take advantage of the easier schedule. By the end of the season, they were without their top-2 quarterbacks, their top wide receiver, three starting offensive linemen, as well as four defensive starters. Had their injuries been flipped and happened earlier in the season, the Chiefs probably would have ended up with a better record in close games and overall.

Despite all their injuries, the Chiefs finished last season 10th in schedule adjusted efficiency, which is far more predictive than win/loss record year-to-year. The Chiefs are unlikely to bounce back to their pre-2025 winning percentage in close games, but they should be a lot better than a year ago. The Chiefs did lose some key players this off-season, but they did a good job adding talent too and they should be healthier. With an easier schedule in 2026, the result should be a much higher win total. The most important player the Chiefs need to get back from injury is quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

At one point, it seemed unlikely that Mahomes, who tore his ACL in week 15 of last season, would make it back for week 1, but his recovery has seemingly gone great, making it seem likely that he won’t miss any time at the start of the year. It is possible that Mahomes might not be 100% right away and Mahomes’ production had dipped in recent years anyway, going from 66.3% completion, 8.10 YPA, 192 touchdowns, and 49 interceptions in the first 80 starts of his career through 2022, to 66.0% completion, 6.96 YPA, 75 touchdowns, and 36 interceptions in 46 starts in the past three seasons, largely due to a diminished supporting cast, but also partially due to Mahomes’ own regression. Mahomes is not over the hill for a quarterback though, going into his age 31 season, and his supporting cast could be better this season than it has been in recent years.

If Mahomes happens to miss any time at the start of the season or at any point this year, the Chiefs would turn to new backup quarterback Justin Fields, who is a good option as far as backups go. The 11th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Fields has struggled as a passer in his career, completing 61.4% of his passes for an average of 6.83 YPA, 52 touchdowns, and 32 interceptions in 53 career starts, but he is an excellent runner, rushing for 2,892 yards and 23 touchdowns on 489 carries (5.91 YPC), and this is by far the best offensive coaching staff he has ever gotten to work with, so he could be surprisingly decent and keep this team afloat if he needs to start for a short period of time.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

After getting Patrick Mahomes back, the most important player for this Chiefs offense to get back and to stay healthy is wide receiver Rashee Rice. The Chiefs’ receiving corps has been a big concern for them in recent years, but Rice has flashed #1 wide receiver ability when on the field in the past three seasons, averaging 2.40 yards per route run in three seasons in the league, since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2023, and totaling a 112/1270/9 slash line on 153 targets in his last 17 games. 

The problem is he has missed 22 games in the past two seasons due to a combination of injuries and off-the-field problems. This off-season, Rice had a clean up procedure on his knee and went to jail for failing a drug test while on probation, but it doesn’t seem likely that either will cost him any time. Still, it isn’t a good omen for a player whose injuries and off-the-field issues have cost him significant time and have hurt this offense significantly as a result. Still very much in his prime in his age 26 season, Rice could have a huge 2026 season if he can stay on the field, but that is a big if. At the very least though, I would expect him to play more than the 415 snaps he played in 8 games last season.

If Rice misses time, the rest of this receiving corps is still a concern, but the Chiefs should also get a healthier season out of Xavier Worthy, who missed just three games last season with a shoulder injury suffered in week 1, but who seemed limited by it for the entire season. A first round pick in 2024, Worthy seemed on his way to developing into an above average wide receiver down the stretch as a rookie, averaging 2.00 yards per route run with a 58/679/6 slash line on 79 targets in his final 10 games of the season, including the post-season, but in 2025 he finished with just a 42/532/1 slash line and 1.25 yards per route run. Now in his third season in the league, it seems reasonable to assume he will bounce back if healthy, which would give the Chiefs at least one other capable wide receiver besides Rice, though Worthy will still be a clear #2 wide receiver behind Rice if both are healthy.

The #3 wide receiver will probably be Tyquan Thornton, who was the #5 wide receiver last season behind Hollywood Brown (1.49 yards per route run, 49/587/5 slash line) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (0.89 yards per route run, 33/345/1 slash line), both of whom are no longer on the roster. Thornton played a lot for a #5 wide receiver last season though (368 snaps), given that Rice and Worthy both missed time. Thornton averaged 1.70 yards per route run with 23.1 yards per catch and an average depth of target of 27.8, but he was very much a one trick pony as a deep threat. 

Thornton also only averaged 0.73 yards per route run in his career prior to last season, although last season was his first with a good quarterback and he was a 2nd round pick in 2022, so he has always had talent. He’s not a bad #3 wide receiver, but he’s not a particularly good one either and the Chiefs would be in trouble if Rice or Worthy missed significant time and Thornton had to be the #2. Behind Thornton, the Chiefs have 2025 4th round pick Jalen Royals, who only played 86 snaps as a rookie despite the Chiefs needing wide receiver help, and 5th round rookie Cyrus Allen as depth options.

The Chiefs also still have Travis Kelce, who has remained a big part of this offense in the past few years mostly out of necessity, as his yards per target has fallen to 7.34 in the past three seasons, down from 9.04 in his first nine seasons in the league, and his yards per route run has fallen to 1.60, down from 2.16 in his first nine seasons in the league. He has still received target totals of 121, 133, and 108 in the past three seasons, but, especially with him now going into his age 37 season, the Chiefs would probably like that number to come down, with more targets going to wide receivers who are more capable of making more explosive plays. Kelce is still a reliable target who has great chemistry with Mahomes, but his explosiveness has been gone for several years.

Kelce will remain being backed up by Noah Gray, who has averaged 601 snaps per season in that role over the past four seasons. He’s only averaged 0.96 yards per route run in his career and he’s not a particularly good blocker either, but he’s not a bad option as far as #2 tight ends go. If the Chiefs get more out of their wide receivers this season, Gray could see his snap count drop as the Chiefs use more three wide receiver sets and fewer two tight end sets. With Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy both possibly giving the Chiefs significantly more in 2026 than 2025, the arrow is pointing up for this group, but there are still significant concerns.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Chiefs’ offensive line should be healthier in 2026, after left tackle Josh Simmons missed nine games last season, right guard Trey Smith missed five games, and right tackle Jawaan Taylor missed five games. Taylor is no longer with the team, but he was a liability last season, while his replacement Jaylon Moore could be an upgrade. Moore has only made 18 starts in five seasons in the league, but he has consistently been a solid starter when he has gotten a chance. He is still a projection to a season-long starting role, but it shouldn’t be a surprise if he is at least a decent starter this season.

Moore will start opposite Simmons, who was the Chiefs’ first round pick in 2025. Simmons was only average as a rookie, but he could take a step forward in his second season in the league, especially since he’ll be another year removed from the torn patellar tendon that ended his final collegiate season and caused the top-15 talent to fall to the Chiefs at the 32nd pick. The time he missed last season was with an unrelated injury and if he can stay healthy, he has the potential to be an above average starter long-term, although that is not a guarantee.

Trey Smith was the offensive lineman they missed the most, as he has consistently been an above average starter in 79 starts in five seasons in the league, missing just one game in his career aside from last season. Still only in his age 27 season, that should continue in 2026. The Chiefs’ best offensive lineman is center Creed Humphrey, who has been an All-Pro caliber player since entering the league as a 2nd round pick in 2021, while making all 85 possible starts. Also still in his prime in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2026. 

Rounding out this offensive line is left guard Kingsley Suamataia, a 2024 2nd round pick who was a disaster in limited action (195 snaps) as a rookie at left tackle, but who seemed to settle down when he moved inside to left guard in 2025, where he was a decent starter, while making all 17 starts. It shouldn’t be a surprise if he continues developing and is better in 2026 than 2025 as a result, still only in his age 23 season and possessing a high upside.

The Chiefs’ depth is a little bit of a concern, in the likely case that one of the Chiefs’ starting five offensive linemen miss at least some time with injury in 2026. Swing tackle Wanya Morris was a 3rd round pick in 2023, but he has failed to develop, struggling in 16 career starts. Meanwhile, Mike Caliendo, the likely top reserve on the interior, has been mediocre in seven starts in four seasons in the league. The Chiefs do have a solid starting five, with an upgrade at right tackle compared to a year ago, and they should be healthier than they were down the stretch last season, but their lack of depth hurts their overall grade a little bit.

Grade: B

Running Backs

The biggest free agent addition the Chiefs made this off-season was signing ex-Seahawk Kenneth Walker to a 3-year, 43.05 million dollar deal this off-season, making him the 6th highest paid running back in the league in terms of average annual salary. He figures to be a massive upgrade for a team whose lead backs Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco averaged 3.75 YPC and 3.92 YPC on 163 carries and 118 carries respectively last season.

One of the most elusive and hard to tackle running backs in the league, Walker has a career missed tackle rate of 27.0%, while averaging 3.03 yards per carry after contact. He was held back by poor run blocking for much of his four years in Seattle, but, unsurprisingly, he averaged about 4.6 yards per carry in each of his two seasons with adequate blocking (2022 and 2025). His pass protection leaves something to be desired, but he can make plays as a receiver as well, averaging 1.16 yards per route run for his career, including a career best 1.44 in 2025. 

He has had some durability issues (9 games missed) and the Seahawks have preferred to use him in a heavy rotation with Zach Charbonnet, so he has just 821 regular season carries in four seasons in the league, but he showed his feature back potential in the post-season last year after Charbonnet got hurt, averaging 4.82 YPC on 65 carries in three games, en route to winning Super Bowl MVP. Finally getting a chance to be the clear lead back, on an offense with a lot of talent around him, Walker has a massive statistical upside, still only in his age 26 season.

With Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco both gone, the Chiefs used a 5th round pick on Emmett Johnson to potentially be the #2 running back, though he would be a true backup in that role and would not significantly cut into Walker’s workload. The Chiefs also added Emari Demercado in free agency to compete with incumbent passing down specialist Brashard Smith, but neither of them are a strong candidate for a significant role as a runner, with Smith totaling just 44 carries (3.43 YPC) as a rookie last season and Demercado totaling just 126 carries in three seasons in the league. 

Smith fared well in his passing down role last season though, averaging 1.59 yards per route run and finishing with a 25/172/1 slash line. He is probably a stronger candidate than Demercado, who has averaged just 0.87 yards per route run in his career, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Smith’s passing game role expanded further in the 2025 7th round pick’s second season in the league. With Kenneth Walker being added, they should be a lot better at the running back position than a year ago.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

The Chiefs’ defense was the strength of their team last season, ranking 6th in schedule adjusted efficiency, as opposed to 15th on offense. While their offense should be better, due to the addition of Kenneth Walker and expected better health in the receiving corps and on the offensive line, their defense could be significantly worse after losing eight of their top-16 in terms of snaps from a year ago. They did add some replacements and not all those departures are going to be impactful, but this unit will look significantly different than a year ago and probably won’t be as good.

Two of the less impactful departures were interior defenders Derrick Nnadi and Jerry Tillery, who were liabilities across snap counts of 308 and 374. Nnadi was a decent run defender, but he was so bad as a pass rusher (2.8% pressure rate) that he was below average overall, while Tillery was a decent pass rusher (6.2% pressure rate), but so bad as a run defender that he was below average overall. The Chiefs also upgraded on Nnadi and Tillery with free agent addition Khyiris Tonga and 29th overall pick Peter Woods. 

Tonga is at his best as a run defender at 6-4 338, but also has a career 7.0% pressure rate. The concerns are that he has never played more than 337 snaps in a season and now is heading into his age 30 season, but he could easily remain a useful rotational player. Woods, meanwhile, has the potential to be an above average starter both as a run defender and a pass rusher long-term, though he could have some growing pains in year one. Additionally, the Chiefs could get more out of Omarr Norton-Lott, a 2025 2nd round pick who was limited to 72 nondescript snaps as a rookie because of a torn ACL. His recovery from that injury complicates his projection, but he could become a solid rotational player in his second season in the league.

Chris Jones will probably still be the Chiefs’ best interior defender and he has been one of the best interior defenders in the league for most of his 10-year career, but he is going into his age 32 season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he declined at least somewhat in 2026. Jones has been at his best as a pass rusher in his career, with 79 sacks, 129 hits, and a 13.8% pressure rate in 123 games since 2018, but his run defense hasn’t been a liability either. Even if he isn’t at his best in 2026, he should remain at least an above average starter. He elevates the overall grade of a position group that figures to be better this year than it was last year, due to the additions of Khyiris Tonga and Peter Woods.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

Another two losses that won’t be significant are edge defenders Charles Omenihu (567 snaps) and Mike Danna (389 snaps), who had pressure rates of just 8.9% and 4.7% respectively last season. Omenihu’s pressure rate was hurt by the fact that he is a hybrid player who lined up on the interior in passing situations, while Danna somewhat made up for his lack of pass rush with decent run defense, but neither of them figure to be missed much.

To replace them, the Chiefs used a second round pick on R Mason Thomas, who could be an upgrade even as a rookie and who has a clearly higher upside than either Omenihu or Danna. The Chiefs are also hoping to get more out of 2025 3rd round pick Ashton Gillotte, who was mediocre across 485 snaps as a rookie, but who could take a step forward in year two. The wild card of the group is Felix Anudike-Uzomah, a first round pick in 2023 who has only played 550 snaps in three seasons in the league due to ineffectiveness and injury, including a 2025 season where he didn’t play a snap because of a hamstring injury. Only in his age 24 season, he still has potential, but it is tough to expect much out of him.

Like at the interior defender position, the Chiefs still have their top player at the edge defender position from a year ago, George Karlaftis, a 2022 1st round pick who has 24.5 sacks, 43 hits, and a 13.1% pressure rate in 48 games over the past three seasons, while also providing decent run defense. Still in his prime in his age 25 season, I expect more of the same from him in 2026. This isn’t a great position group, but at the very least they aren’t worse than they were a year ago, even after a couple off-season departures.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The loss of linebacker Leo Chenal is not that impactful, not because is isn’t a good player, but because he only played 440 snaps in 14 games last season as a part-time player, stuck behind a pair of talented linebackers in Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill, who both remain on the roster. Bolton is the better of the two, playing at an above average level in each of the past four seasons, while playing 60.5 snaps per game in 58 games during that stretch. Tranquill is not quite as good and is going into his age 31 season, but he has been a solid player who has played 49.1 snaps per game in 66 games over the past four seasons, so even if he declines this season, he should at least remain a decent #2 starting linebacker. Bolton, meanwhile, is going into his age 26 season and should be in his prime for several more seasons.

Depth is a concern without Chenal though, with 2025 5th round pick Jeffrey Bassa likely to be the third linebacker in his absence, after playing just 40 snaps as a rookie. The Chiefs will probably use three linebackers at the same time less frequently with Bassa in that role than they did with Chenal in that role, but if Bolton or Tranquill miss time with injury, Bassa would then have to play an every down role, in which he would likely be a liability unless he exceeds expectations in his second season in the league. It is a concern in an otherwise solid linebacking corps.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The Chiefs’ secondary is the unit that lost the most, with cornerback Trent McDuffie, cornerback Jaylen Watson, and safety Bryan Cook all no longer on the roster, after all were above average starters in 2025. To replace McDuffie and Watson, the Chiefs traded up and used the 6th overall pick on cornerback Mansoor Delane. Delane has a high upside and could be a solid starter right away, but even if he is, he’s unlikely to be as good as McDuffie or Watson and he definitely isn’t good enough to replace both of them.

The good news is the Chiefs have 2025 3rd round pick Nohl Williams waiting in the wings, after playing at a high level across 458 snaps as a rookie. Williams is a projection to a larger role and might not be as good as he was last season in a smaller role, but even if he isn’t he could easily be at least a solid starter opposite Delane. Additionally, the Chiefs signed veteran Kader Kohou and he figures to at least play in three cornerback sets with Delane and Williams. Kohou missed all of 2025 with a torn ACL, but he was a decent player across an average snap count of 847 in his first three seasons in the league, prior to last season’s injury. He might struggle immediately upon his return from injury, but the good news he will be over a full year removed from getting hurt by week 1 and, even with the injury recovery taken into account, he’s not a bad #3 cornerback option.

The Chiefs also have several depth options behind their top-3 cornerbacks. Kristian Fulton has 53 starts in six seasons in the league since being selected in the 2nd round in 2020 and has been a decent starter at times, but also has mostly been a liability as a starter and played just 208 snaps last season. Chris Roland-Wallace went undrafted in 2024, but has flashed some potential as a slot cornerback in 384 snaps in two seasons in the league. Jadon Canady was a 4th round pick in this year’s draft. Kaiir Elam was a first round pick by the Bills in 2022 and is still only going into his age 25 season, but has mostly struggled across 1,475 career snaps and is now on his 4th team and seemingly running out of chances. They will compete for backup jobs behind a likely top-3 of Delane, Williams, and Kohou. 

To replace Brian Cook at safety, the Chiefs signed Alohi Gilman, who isn’t quite as good as Cook, but who is also a solid starter in his own right and has the versatility to play on the slot and at safety, which allows the Chiefs to play some three safety sets in sub packages. Gilman will start next to Chamarri Conner, who remains on the roster, but who has mostly been a liability since being selected in the 4th round in 2023. 

Conner could face some competition for the starting job from Jaden Hicks, a 2024 4th round pick who has been decent on snap counts of 330 and 445 in two seasons in the league, but who is a projection to a larger role. If he can’t beat out Conner, he will play a similar snap count as he did last season as the third safety. This secondary isn’t as good as they were last year, but they aren’t as bad as they could have been, given that they lost a trio of above average starters.

Grade: B

Kickers

Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker was once one of the best kickers in the league, adding 32.80 points above average in his first seven seasons in the league from 2017-2023, finishing above average in six of seven seasons. However, in the past two seasons, he has had back-to-back below average seasons, costing the Chiefs 2.59 points in 2024 and 2.47 points in 2025. That could be the start of a new trend, but Butker isn’t totally over the hill for a kicker, going into his age 31 season, and could bounce back at least somewhat in 2026. At the very least, the Chiefs still seem to believe in him, keeping him on the roster as the only kicker as of this writing.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Chiefs had a lot of bad luck with close losses (1-9 in one-score games), leading to them going just 6-11, despite ranking 10th in schedule adjusted efficiency. They also had a lot of untimely injuries last season down the stretch last season. Fortunately, schedule adjusted efficiency is more predictive year-to-year than win/loss record and the Chiefs should also be healthier this season. Unfortunately, their roster is probably not as good overall as it was last season, particularly on defense, which lost some key players, though their offense should be better due to the addition of running back Kenneth Walker. Ultimately, this team should be in the mix for a playoff spot and the division title, but I am not sure if I would consider them true contenders.

Prediction: 11-6, 1st in AFC West

Dallas Cowboys 2026 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2026 NFL Season Previews, Cowboys

Quarterback

The Cowboys finished last season 7-9-1, but their issues were almost entirely on the defensive side of the ball, as they ranked dead last in schedule adjusted efficiency on defense in their first season post-Micah Parsons trade, as opposed to 3rd on offense. I will get much more into their defense later, but they have a completely remade unit on that side of the ball with seven expected starters who were injured or not on the roster week 1 of last season, including five that were just added this off-season. Some of those newcomers are high or potential high level players and even the ones who aren’t high level players are still significant upgrades on the players they are replacing. With their defense expected to be a lot better, this team has a lot of potential if their offense can continue to play at the level they played at last season.

They largely bring back the same offense as a year ago, with their top-11 in terms of snaps played from a year ago all being brought back, but there are some reasons to expect them to not be as good. For one, they didn’t have a lot of injuries on offense last season, with the 9th fewest adjusted games lost to injury on offense of any teams in the league last season. The Cowboys also got a great season from Dak Prescott, who has played like an elite quarterback at times in his career, but has also not been able to do that consistently. In ten seasons in the league, he has had five seasons where he has made every start and recorded a passer rating of 99 or higher, but he also has had four seasons in which he either missed five or more games due to injury or finished with a passer rating below 90. 

Most recently, both of those happened in 2024, when Prescott completed 64.7% of his passes for an average of 6.92 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions (86.0 passer rating) in 8 games. He bounced back in a big way in 2025, completing 67.3% of his passes for an average of 7.59 YPA, 30 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions (99.5 passer rating) in 17 games, but it is very possible that his 2026 season falls somewhere in the middle, now going into his age 33 season, with a significant injury history. If that happens, that will hurt this offense significantly.

The Cowboys’ backup options if Prescott gets hurt are incumbent backup Joe Milton and free agent addition Sam Howell, both of whom would be obvious downgrades. Milton, a 6th round pick in 2024, has the most upside of the two and has completed 69.8% of his passes for an average of 8.00 YPA, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in two seasons in the league, but almost all of that action has come in meaningless week 18 games that were glorified pre-season games, so it is tough to put much stock into his performance. 

Howell, meanwhile, has made 18 starts in four seasons in the league, completing 62.6% of his passes for an average of 6.42 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 23 interceptions. The Cowboys’ decision to add him this off-season suggests they aren’t sold on Milton, but this job will go to whoever most earns it this off-season. Starting quarterback Dak Prescott has a high upside if he plays at or near his best and stays healthy, but there is also downside here if Prescott struggles or gets hurt, forcing an underwhelming backup option into action.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

Another concern for this offense is a potential rumored trade of wide receiver George Pickens, whose addition to this offense took them to the next level last off-season, but who has yet to be signed long-term and could hold out after being franchise tagged this off-season. Pickens finished last season with a 93/1429/9 slash line and 2.35 yards per route run on 137 targets (10.43 yards per target) last season. 

It was a career best year, but Pickens’ production had always been kept down on his previous team in Pittsburgh by poor quarterback play and a run-heavy offense. Even still, Pickens averaged 1.83 yards per route run and 9.70 yards per target in three seasons with the Steelers and he predictably broke out statistically in a much wide receiver friendly offense in Dallas. Still only in his age 25 season, Pickens could easily continue playing and producing at a similar level if he stays in Dallas.

Part of the reason why the Cowboys might consider moving Pickens is because they already have another #1 caliber wide receiver in CeeDee Lamb, who is already signed to a big money contract, ranking 4th among wide receivers in average annual salary at 34 million. Pickens may be looking to match or top that salary and that would be a lot for the Cowboys to commit to two wide receivers. Lamb finished with less production than Pickens last season (75/1077/3), but mostly because he missed three full games and part of two others with injury. 

His yards per route run average of 2.37 was actually slightly better than Pickens’ and he’s more proven, averaging a 113/1451/8 slash line per 17 games and 2.47 yards per route run over the past four seasons. Still only going into his age 27 season, Lamb is very much still in his prime. It is possible Pickens is traded, but if they were going to do that the Cowboys probably would have moved Pickens before the draft to get something to help them this season and there is nothing wrong with having two legitimate #1 wide receivers, which is what Lamb and Pickens are.

The Cowboys also have a promising #3 wide receiver in Ryan Flournoy. A 6th round pick in 2024, Flournoy only averaged 1.06 yards per route run in a limited role as a rookie, but that jumped to 1.74 in 2025. Flournoy wasn’t even the full-time #3 receiver last season, but he saw his playing time increase as the season went on, playing 37.9 snaps per game in his final eight games of the season, as opposed to 25.1 snaps per game in his first seven games of the season, as it became clear that he was their best option, compared to KaVontae Turpin (highly undersized at 5-9 153) and Jalen Tolbert (0.77 yards per route run in 2025). 

In 2026, Flournoy should begin the year as the #3 clear wide receiver and, even though he is still pretty unproven, he will probably be better than most #3 wide receivers. The Cowboys also still have KaVontae Turpin (1.79 yards per route run in the past three seasons) as a situational receiver, though he is going into his age 30 season, which is a concern for a player so reliant on speed and quickness. Other depth options include Jonathan Mingo, who was a second round pick by the Panthers in 2023, but has averaged just 0.72 yards per route run in his career, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, a veteran who has averaged just 1.19 yards per route run in his career, who was on three different rosters last season, and who is now going into his age 32 season.

At tight end, Jake Ferguson is a decent, but unspectacular starter, averaging a 75/657/5 slash line per 17 games with a 1.32 yards per route run average in three seasons as a starter. He will continue being backed up by Luke Schoonmaker, a 2023 2nd round pick who has averaged just 1.04 yards per route run in three seasons in the league, and 2024 undrafted free agent Brevyn Spann-Ford, a blocking specialist who has caught just 18 passes in two seasons in the league. This is a talented overall receiving corps, led by a pair of true #1 caliber wide receivers in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.

Grade: A

Running Backs

Another possible concern on this offense is potential regression from Javonte Williams, who surprised a lot of people en route to a season in which he rushed for 1,201 yards and 11 touchdowns on 252 carries (4.77 YPC), with 3.56 yards per carry after contact, a 56.3% carry success rate, and a 21.4% missed tackle rate. That didn’t completely come out of nowhere, as Williams was a second round pick in 2021 by the Broncos and averaged 4.43 YPC with 3.43 yards per carry after contact, a 46.8% carry success rate, and a 31.6% missed tackle rate across 250 carries in his first two seasons in the league, before suffering a torn ACL midway through that second season in the league. In his first two seasons after returning, Williams fell to a 3.62 YPC with 2.58 yards per carry after contact, a 43.0% carry success rate, and a 15.2% missed tackle rate across 356 carries, before bouncing back in a big way last season. 

Williams is still only going into his age 26 and it is possible he will pick up where he left off last season, now totally past his injury, but his inconsistent history is at least somewhat a reason for concern. The Cowboys also don’t really have much depth behind Williams, with their #2 back last season being Malik Davis, a 2022 undrafted free agent with just 90 carries and 8 catches in four seasons in the league, and the only other notable running back on their roster being Jaydon Blue, a 2025 5th round pick who played just 78 snaps as a rookie. The Cowboys’ offense would be in trouble if Williams got hurt or regressed.

Even if Williams does not regress, the Cowboys don’t have a good receiving option at running back. Williams averaged just 0.40 yards per route run last season with a 35/137/2 slash line on 51 targets and, in his career, he has averaged just 0.98 yards per route run. Davis played 57.1% of his snaps in passing situations, but he wasn’t any better, averaging just 0.30 yards per route run, while Blue averaged 0.21 yards per route run. The Cowboys could have a solid running game again, but that is not a guarantee and, even in a best case scenario, none of their running backs will contribute much in the passing game.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The Cowboys bring back the same five starting offensive linemen from 2025 for 2026, but at one point it looked like that might not be the case. Left tackle Tyler Guyton, selected in the first round in 2024, has been a liability in both seasons in the league and, after missing time with injury last season, was benched for the end of the season, with the Cowboys opting to move left guard Tyler Smith to left tackle and plug TJ Bass in at left guard. 

However, the Cowboys didn’t add a legitimate starting option at left guard this off-season, meaning Bass, a backup caliber player, would have to continue playing left guard if Smith moved to left tackle. They also did not add a legitimate starting option at left tackle, only using a 4th round pick on Drew Shelton, so it seems likely Smith will stay at left guard and Guyton will get another shot at left tackle. Guyton could be better in his third season in the league, but that is not a guarantee and, even if he is, he has a long way to go to become even an average left tackle.

Smith, meanwhile, has developed into a well above average starting left guard and, even though he has some experience at left tackle, it probably makes sense to leave him at the position he plays so well. Still only in his age 25 season, the 2021 1st round pick figures to remain a well above average guard for years to come and could qualify for multiple All-Pro teams before all is said and done. The same is probably the case with right guard Tyler Booker, another former first round pick on this offensive line, who immediately was an above average starter as a rookie in 2025 and has the potential to be even better in 2026.

The two non-former first round picks on this offensive line are right tackle Terence Steele and center Cooper Beebe. Steele went undrafted in 2020, but he has made 91 starts in six seasons in the league and has mostly been decent, with the exception of a 2023 season in which he was coming off of a torn ACL. Beebe, meanwhile, went in the 3rd round in 2024 and has developed into a solid starting center, making 16 decent starts as a rookie, before taking a little bit of a step forward in year two in 2025, albeit in only 11 starts, with 6 missed due to injury. He will be backed up by veteran journeyman Matt Hennessy, who has not been bad in 24 starts in six seasons in the league. Left tackle is still a big question mark, but this still looks like a solid offensive line.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

One of the new likely starters on this defense is Rashan Gary, who the Cowboys acquired from the Packers for a 2027 4th round pick and then subsequently gave a new 2-year, 32 million dollar contract with 16 million guaranteed. Gary used to be a high level edge defender, particularly as a pass rusher, with 24.5 sacks, 33 hits, and a 17.0% pressure rate in 42 games from 2021-2023, but he has been closer to a league average edge defender over the past two seasons, totaling 15 sacks, 19 hits, and a 12.2% pressure rate in 33 games, while also regressing against the run, which is why the Packers moved on from him. Gary is only going into his age 29 season, so he has some bounce back potential, even after back-to-back down seasons, but even if he doesn’t bounce back, he should be a solid starter for his new team.

The Cowboys also added Malachi Lawrence in the first round of the draft, though he will probably play a reserve role behind Gary and 2025 2nd round pick Donovan Ezeirukau, who had a solid rookie year across 603 snaps, particularly playing well in run defense, but also adding 2 sacks, 12 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate. Another rookie, 4th round pick LT Overton, will compete for a deep reserve role with holdovers Sam Williams and James Houston, who played 474 snaps and 305 snaps respectively last season.

Williams was a second round pick in 2022 and flashed potential in limited roles in his first two seasons in the league, with pressure rates of 13.3% and 12.0% on snap counts of 274 and 306, but he then tore his ACL and missed all of 2024 and did not have the same explosiveness upon his return in 2025, managing just a 8.9% pressure rate, while also struggling against the run. The Cowboys still brought him back as a free agent this off-season though and, another year removed from injury, still only going into his age 27 season, he has some bounce back potential in 2026, though it is worth noting that he is still pretty unproven and inexperienced, having played just 1,054 snaps in four seasons in the league. 

James Houston, also brought back as a free agent this off-season, has played even less in four seasons in the league (617 total snaps), in part due to injuries (34 games played in four seasons) and in part due to his poor run defense, but he does have a career 15.2% pressure rate in his limited action and should remain a useful situational pass rusher in 2026. This is still not a great position group, but they should be better than a year ago.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

The biggest addition the Cowboys have made on defense in the past year is interior defender Quinnen Williams, one of the best players in the league at his position, who the Cowboys gave up a significant portion of the draft capital they got for Micah Parsons to acquire, sending a 2027 first and 2026 second round pick to the Jets in return. Also a consistently above average run defender, Williams has totaled 39 sacks, 60 hits, and a 12.1% pressure rate in 93 games over the past six seasons, dating back to the former 3rd overall pick’s second season in the league in 2020. Still in his prime in his age 29 season in 2026, I would expect continued All-Pro level play from him this season.

After Williams was acquired last season, the Cowboys had a great trio at the interior defender position with Williams, Kenny Clark, and Osa Odighizuwa, but they opted to get some draft compensation back this off-season by trading Odighizuwa for a 2026 third round pick. He’ll be missed, especially as a pass rusher, as he had 3.5 sacks, 20 hits, and a 12.4% pressure rate last season, but having Williams for a full season, after only getting him for seven games last season, should more than make up for Odighizuwa’s absence.

Kenny Clark, acquired along with two first round picks for Parsons, had a solid first season in Dallas across 746 snaps and will remain a starter in 2026 next to Williams. Clark leaves something to be desired against the run, but he did have 3 sacks, 7 hits, and a 9.5% pressure rate last season. The problem is he is going into his age 31 season and even his solid play last season was a decline from his peak, when he had 34 sacks, 43 hits, and a 10.8% pressure rate in 109 games in a 7-season stretch from 2017-2023. If he declines further in 2026, that would hurt this defense a little and might make them regret moving Odighizuwa.

The Cowboys’ also lack depth at the interior defender position without Odighizuwa. Otito Ogbonnia was signed from the Chargers in free agency, but the 2022 5th round pick has been consistently below average on an average of just 251 snaps per game in four seasons in the league. Jonathan Bullard was also signed and he’s been a decent rotational player for most of his 10-year career, but he’s going into his age 33 season and his pass rush has really dropped off in recent years, with a combined 2.6% pressure rate in the past five seasons. He has still been a decent run defender, but at his age that could decline too this season. 

It’s also possible that LT Overton could put on some weight and move inside, where he would be needed more than on the edge, but he is still just a 4th round rookie. Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark have consistently played every down in their career, so depth probably isn’t needed that much, but they would be in trouble if Williams or Clark got hurt or if Clark declined significantly because of his age. This should still be a better overall position group than a year ago with the All-Pro caliber Quinnen Williams being there from the start this year, but trading away Odighizuwa could end up being a mistake.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Cowboys’ linebacking corps was probably their biggest weakness on defense last season and one of the worst linebacking corps in the league, but this is probably the group that has improved the most in the past year and not just by default. One big boost to this linebacking corps came down the stretch last season, when DeMarvion Overshown came back in week 11 from a multi-ligament tear in his knee that he suffered in week 14 of 2024. 

Overshown, 2023 3rd round pick, was a solid starter across 708 snaps in 2024 and seemed to have no ill effects from his injury when he returned in 2025. If he can stay healthy in 2026, he should remain at least a solid starter, though it is worth noting that this is the second major knee injury he has suffered in three years in the league, also missing his entire rookie season in 2023 with a torn ACL on his other knee. Additionally he missed two games missed at the end of last season with a concussion, though he doesn’t have a history of concussions.

As long as he’s healthy, Overshown will start next to Dee Winters, who the Cowboys acquired in a trade with the 49ers for a late round pick. A 6th round pick in 2023, Winters was decent across 993 snaps last season, after being decent across 398 snaps in 2024, which makes him a significant upgrade from every other linebacker on this roster last season except Overshown. Aside from Overshown, only Shemar James and Marist Liufau remain from last year’s linebacking corps and they will compete for the third linebacker spot with third round rookie Jaishawn Barham.

James, a 2025 5th round pick, was a disaster in 542 snaps last season and, while he could be better in year two, he has a long way to go to even be a decent player and, even as a third linebacker option, he is underwhelming. Liufau, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick in 2024, but has struggled on snap counts of 520 and 200 respectively in two seasons in the league. The rookie Barham is probably the favorite for the third linebacker job by default and, as long as injuries don’t force him into a larger role, which is far from a guarantee, he should at least be decent as a rookie. At the very least, he should be better than what they had last season, which is the case for this entire linebacking corps, even if they still have concerns.

Grade: B-

Secondary

The safety position was also a big position of weakness for the Cowboys last season, with veterans Malik Hooker and Donovan Wilson both struggling as the starters. Both were replaced this off-season by first round pick Caleb Downs and veteran Jalen Thompson. Downs was one of the best players in the draft and who should immediately at least be a solid starter, if not better, while Thompson has consistently been at least an average, if not above average starter in his career, starting 87 of 99 games played in his career, including all 62 he has played over the past four seasons. Still only in his age 28 season, Thompson should form a solid safety duo with the rookie Downs, which is a huge upgrade from a year ago.

Wilson is gone, but Hooker remains and could still play a role in sub packages, when the Cowboys may want Downs to move to the slot. Hooker has mostly been at least a decent starter in his career, but he had a down year last year and now he is going into his age 30 season with a significant injury history, missing 35 games in 9 seasons in the league, so it is very likely his best days are behind him. He might not be bad in a situational role as a third safety though and, at the very least, not having to rely on him as an every down starter will be a boost for this defense.

Cornerback was also a position of weakness last season and, while they did add Cobie Durant in free agency, he is only one player and a marginal one at best, which is part of why the Cowboys could use three safeties together frequently in sub packages. Durant has started 38 of 48 games in the past three seasons and, even as a marginal starter, he should be an upgrade over what the Cowboys had at cornerback last season opposite Daron Bland, their de facto top cornerback, who remains as the starter opposite Durant this season. 

Bland seemingly had a breakout year in 2023, when he led the league with 9 interceptions in his second season in the league, after also having 5 interceptions as a rookie, but injuries have cost him 13 games over the past two seasons and have seemingly limited him when on the field, leading to him intercepting just one pass in 2024 and 2025 combined. He’s also consistently given up plays in the passing game, even in the seasons where he had high interception totals, so if he isn’t intercepting passes at an above average rate, he is a liability. Only going into his age 27 season, he has some bounce back potential in 2026 if he can stay healthy, but that is not a guarantee.

Other options at cornerback behind Durant and Bland include Shavon Revel, a 2025 3rd round pick who struggled mightily across 334 snaps as a rookie, but who could be better in year two, another year removed from a torn ACL that ended his final collegiate season and caused him to fall in the draft, Reddy Stewart, a 2024 undrafted free agent who predictably was a liability when forced into 519 snaps last season, after only playing 18 as a rookie, and Devin Moore, a 4th round rookie who is unlikely to be ready to contribute in a positive way in year one. Like every position group on this defense, this unit should be better in 2026 than 2025, even if they still have concerns.

Grade: B-

Kickers

One of the strengths of this team last season was the kicking game, where Brandon Aubrey was once again one of the best kickers in the league, as he has been in every season since his first season in the league in 2023. His 21.19 points added above an average kicker ranks fourth in the league over that stretch and he has exceeded 5 points added above an average kicker in all three seasons. Even that might not fully capture how great he has been, as already holds the NFL record with 6 made field goals of 60 yards or longer and. Expect more of the same greatness in 2026.

Grade: A

Conclusion

The Cowboys have completely remade the league’s worst defense from a year ago and should be at least a passable unit on that side of the ball this season. Their offense might not be as good, given quarterback Dak Prescott’s history of injury and inconsistency, the uncertainty of wide receiver George Pickens’ contract status, and potential regression from running back Javonte Williams, but they at least have all of the same key personnel on offense from a year ago as of right now. At the very least, this team looks likely to be in the mix for a playoff spot in 2026.

Prediction: 10-7, 2nd in NFC East

Las Vegas Raiders 2026 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2026 NFL Season Previews, Raiders

Quarterback

In 2024, the Raiders went 4-13, but their defense ranked 10th in schedule adjusted efficiency and they felt that trading for quarterback Geno Smith and using the 6th overall pick on running back Ashton Jeanty would be enough to bring their offense, which ranked 29th, up to the same level, which would have put this team into the position. Smith had been at least a decent starter for the Seahawks over the previous three seasons, which was much more than you could say about any of the quarterbacks who started for the Raiders in 2024, while Jeanty was considered an elite running back prospect and also looked like he could significantly upgrade what was position of weakness for the Raiders in 2024.

The Raiders’ defense remained decent in 2025, ranking 13th in schedule adjusted efficiency, but Geno Smith regressed quickly in his mid 30s, Jeanty did not move the needle in year one, and the Raiders top-4 other offensive players, tight end Brock Bowers, left tackle Kolton Miller, wide receiver Jakobi Meyers, and right guard Jackson Powers-Johnson, all either missed significant time with injury or, in the case of Meyers, were traded mid-season when it was clear this team was going nowhere and should trade away valuable players in the final year of their contract. The result was an offense that arguably was even worse in 2025 than 2024 and a 3-14 record.

The good news is the Raiders were bad enough to receive the #1 overall pick, which they used on a potential franchise quarterback in Fernando Mendoza. The Raiders also were able to attract the top head coaching candidate of this cycle, Super Bowl winning offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak of the Seattle Seahawks, who was likely in part attracted to this job because of the opportunity to work with Mendoza. With a bright offensive mind calling plays for him and likely a healthier supporting cast than a year ago, which was also supplemented in free agency, the Raiders are doing what they can to give Mendoza a chance to reach his potential. 

Mendoza might not start right away though, as the Raiders are taking a long-term approach to his development and signed veteran Kirk Cousins to start until they feel comfortable switching to the rookie. Cousins is even older than Geno Smith, going into his age 38 season, and he posted almost an identical passer rating to Smith in 2025 (84.8 for Cousins, 84.7 for Smith), but Cousins is unlikely to start the whole season and having a smart veteran to help Mendoza with his development should be a good thing for him. I wouldn’t expect great things for either quarterback in 2026, but the Raiders seem to be taking the right approach, even if the short-term result isn’t likely to be a lot of wins right away. 

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

The player who the Raiders would benefit most from having fully healthy for the whole season is tight end Brock Bowers, who is their best offensive player. Only a rookie in 2024, the 14th overall pick was one of the best tight ends in the entire league in his last healthy season, breaking numerous rookie records and finishing with a 112/1194/5 slash line and a 2.02 yards per route run average. However, in 2025, Bowers suffered a knee injury early in week 1, which limited him to 12 games, while inhibiting him in numerous others, leading to him finishing with just a 64/680/7 slash line and 1.70 yards per route run. Now going into 2026, Bowers has figures to bounce back at least to his 2024 form if he can avoid another major injury and it is possible that his third season in the league ends up being his best one yet, still only in his age 24 season, possessing a sky high upside, in what could be the best offense he has played in as a professional.

Bowers will essentially be the Raiders #1 receiver, as the Raiders’ wide receiving room was one of the worst in the league last season after trading away Jakobi Meyers and the only notable addition they made this off-season was signing ex-Viking Jalen Nailor to a 3-year, 35.03 million dollar deal. A 6th round pick in 2022, Nailor has averaged just 1.20 yards per route run in four seasons in the league, with a career high in receiving yards of 444 in a season. None of that suggests there is much upside with him, but it is worth noting that he had his highest season receiving yardage total in 2025, when the rest of the Vikings’ receiving corps all had down years due one of the worst quarterback situations in the league. 

It is possible the Vikings’ poor quarterback situation last season masked a mini breakout season from Nailor, who could continue that with a better offense and a higher target share in 2026 and beyond. Nailor also has averaged 15.4 yards per catch, 9.35 yards per target, and a 12.6 average depth of target in his career, showing a consistently deep ball ability. He probably won’t be anything resembling the #1 wide receiver the Raiders need, even in an absolute best case scenario, but he could have by far his best statistical year yet in 2026.

The Raiders also have a pair of second year wide receivers who could take a step forward in year two, although they have a long way to go to even be capable wide receivers, with 2nd round pick Jack Bech finishing his rookie year with 1.16 yards per route run and a 20/224/0 slash line on 29 targets and 4th round pick Dont’e Thornton finishing his rookie year with 0.53 yards per route run and a 10/135/0 slash line on 30 targets. 

Bech and Thornton will probably compete for the #3 wide receiver role in 2026, while Tre Tucker, the de facto #1 wide receiver after Meyers was traded, is likely to start opposite Nailor in two wide receiver sets. Tucker finished last season with career highs in catches (57), targets (92), yards (696), and touchdowns (5), but he was still a marginal starting wide receiver at best. In three seasons in the league, he has averaged just 1.08 yards per route run, including 1.20 in 2025. He’s still only going into his age 25 season, but it is very possible the 2023 3rd round pick just doesn’t have another level.

The Raiders could use an above average amount of two tight end sets in 2026 to try to mask their lack of depth at wide receiver. Backup tight end Michael Mayer is not nearly as good as Bowers and has largely been a disappointment since being selected in the 2nd round in 2023, averaging just 1.08 yards per route run in his career, but that jumped to 1.48 yards per route run in 2025 and, even if he averages less than that in 2025, he is probably better than most #2 tight ends. A likely healthier year out of Brock Bowers will be a big boost for this offense, but the rest of this receiving corps is still a big concern.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The Raiders’ offensive line is probably their most improved unit compared to a year ago, with left tackle Kolton Miller returning from missing 13 games, right guard Jackson Powers-Johnson likely healthier after missing 9 games, and center Tyler Linderbaum being added in free agency. The newcomer Linderbaum could be the best of the bunch. A first round pick in 2022, Linderbaum has been an above average starter since his rookie year and has developed into a borderline All-Pro caliber player. The Raiders paid a massive price to add him, giving him a 27 million dollar annual salary that dwarfs the second highest paid center at 18 million, but he will at least give the Raiders a high level player and at a position that was a major weakness last season. 

Kolton Miller has also been a high level player in his career, though there is some doubt whether or not that will continue in 2026, as he is going into his age 31 season and coming off of a major injury. Miller still played at his prime level in 2024 and before his injury in 2025 though so, even if he isn’t as good in 2026, he should still be a welcome re-addition to this offense, especially given that his backup Stone Forsythe was a liability in his absence last season, but he might not be quite as good as he used to be.

Powers-Johnson has not been a high level player, but the 2024 2nd round pick has been decent in each of his first two seasons in the league and is still only going into his age 23 season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if 2026 is his best season yet, especially if he is healthier than a year ago. Right tackle Delmar Glaze is also going into his third season in the league and the 2024 3rd round pick has also been decent in two seasons in the league (31 starts). He too could have his best season yet in 2026.

The one potential weak spot on this offense is left guard, where the Raiders lost a decent starter in Dylan Parham as a free agent and will either start free agent addition Spencer Burford, 3rd round rookie Trey Zuhn, or 2025 3rd round pick Caleb Rogers. Rogers is probably the best of the bunch, as he showed the potential to be at least a decent starter long-term in 284 snaps (6 starts) last season. Zuhn also has potential, but might not be ready to start in year one. Burford, meanwhile, has started 38 of 56 games played in four seasons in the league, but he has consistently been a liability and, as a result, he has only started 9 of 26 games played in the past two seasons. He would be best as a reserve, but will at least have a chance to start.

Other reserve options other than whoever doesn’t end up starting at left guard are swing tackle Charles Grant, a 2025 3rd round pick who has theoretical upside, but who only played 59 snaps as a rookie, despite the injury to Kolton Miller, and Jordan Meredith, a guard/center who has made 19 starts over the past two seasons, but has mostly struggled, especially in 2025. This is a much improved offensive line from a year ago, even if they aren’t a perfect unit.

Grade: B

Running Backs

One player who should benefit significantly from this offense being better in 2026, particularly with their improvements on the offensive line, is running back Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty was expected to be a difference maker for this offense when the Raiders selected him 6th overall last season, but good running backs are much more valuable to teams that already have at least a decent offense, as there is only so much they can do when they have no room to run. That was the case for Jeanty last season, who averaged just 3.67 YPC and a 41.0% carry success rate on 266 carries last season. 

That was not his fault though, as he averaged 3.06 yards per carry after contact, as opposed to 0.61 yards per carry before contact, and he had an above average 22.9% missed tackle rate. With more room to run and a running back friendly offensive coordinator in Klint Kubiak, expect Jeanty’s production to much more closely resemble what was expected of him as a rookie. Jeanty also figures to remain heavily involved in the passing game, given the state of this receiving corps. As a rookie, he had a 55/346/5 slash line and 0.96 yards per route run on 73 targets and he could be more efficient in year two.

The Raiders clearly still believe in Jeanty, only adding 4th round rookie Mike Washington to back him up and only doing that because they had absolutely nothing behind Jeanty before drafting Washington. Washington has some potential, but I would expect him to be a true backup to Jeanty, only rotating in when Jeanty needs a breather. The Raiders’ depth situation would likely become a concern if Jeanty misses time with injury, but he doesn’t have a significant injury history and, as long as he is healthy, I would expect Jeanty to be an above average running back this season.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, the Raiders’ defense had been decent the past couple years, despite this team’s lack of success in the win/loss column. There is some concern they won’t be as good again this year though, due to the loss of defensive coordinator Patrick Graham, who seemed to consistently get the most out of a defense that frankly was not that talented, even if they had decent results. The Raiders did add some free agents on defense this off-season, but none of them are likely to move the needle.

Kwity Paye was signed to a 3-year, 48 million dollar deal to replace Tyree Wilson, who was decent across 463 snaps last season and got sent to the Saints for a late round pick this off-season. Paye was a first round pick in 2021, but hasn’t really lived up to expectations. He is an above average run defender, but has only totaled 30.5 sacks, 21 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate in 75 career games. Paye is already going into his age 28 season, so he probably is who he is at this stage of his career.

Things could have gotten really bad on this defense if the Maxx Crosby trade went through. That trade would have netted the Raiders two first round picks from the Ravens, including the 14th overall pick in this year’s draft, and it would have been a good move for a team that is taking the long-term approach to building this team, but it would have been a big blow to this defense in the short-term. Unfortunately for the long-term, but fortunately for the short-term, the trade fell apart due to concerns about Maxx Crosby’s surgically repaired knee, which cost him the final two games of last season.

Crosby has become increasingly injury plagued in the last two seasons, missing seven games total after not missing a single one in his first five seasons in the league, and he is now going into his age 29 season. He also hasn’t been quite as good over the past two seasons, so I understand the Ravens’ concerns with adding him via trade at a high price. However, he has totaled 69.5 sacks, 100 hits, and a 12.2% pressure rate in 110 career games, while playing the run at a high level, including 17.5 sacks, 24 hits, and a 11.0% pressure rate in 27 games over the past two seasons. 

Even at less than his best, he is still one of the best players in the league at his position. He also almost never comes off the field, averaging 58.6 snaps per game in his career. Last season, despite missing two games, he still ranked 4th among edge defenders in snaps played. There is some concern he will miss time again this season, but he is expected to be ready for training camp and more than ready for the start of the season, barring any unexpected setbacks. 

Malcolm Koonce, 501 snaps in 2025, was retained as a free agent on a 1-year, 11.01 million dollar deal this off-season and Keyron Crawford was added in the third round of the draft to give them some added depth and potentially a long-term replacement for Crosby in the somewhat likely scenario that try to again explore a trade for him sometime in the next year. Koonce was not the same in 2025 as he was in seemingly a breakout season in 2023, with a lost season due to injury in 2024 in between. 

Koonce went from 8 sacks, 10 hits, and a 15.1% pressure rate in 2023 to 4.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 10.6% pressure rate in 2025. The 5-year veteran remains a one-year wonder and it is very possible he never is as good as he was in 2023 again, but he also is still only going into his age 28 season and could be better in 2026 than he was in 2025, another year removed from his injury. Arguably the strength of this defense, this is a solid position group that is elevated by the presence of Maxx Crosby, who seems likely to remain a Raider at least for the start of the 2026 season, after a failed off-season trade attempt.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

While the Raiders’ edge defenders were the strength of this defense and will remain the strength in 2026, their interior defenders were the weakness and will remain the weakness in 2026. Jonah Laulu (764 snaps), Adam Butler (684 snaps), and Thomas Booker (603 snaps) figure to remain their top-3 at the position like they were a year ago and all three figure to struggle again. Laulu, a 7th round pick in 2024, also struggled across 475 snaps as a rookie and, given where he was drafted, it is very possible he never develops into even a decent rotational player. Thomas Booker also doesn’t have any history of success, as the 2022 5th round pick played just 373 snaps in three seasons in the league prior to last season.

Adam Butler has at least been a decent pass rusher in his career, totaling 28 sacks, 28 hits, and a 6.6% pressure rate in 129 career games, but he has consistently struggled as a run defender, his pressure rate fell to 5.3% in 2025, and he’s now heading into his age 32 season, so he could decline further as a run defender and/or a pass rusher. The Raiders did add Benito Jones to the mix in free agency, but he has struggled across an average of 277 snaps per season in six seasons in the league (261 snaps in 2025) and won’t be any help to a position group that needs it. This looks likely to be one of the best interior defender groups in the league this season.

Grade: C

Linebackers

The Raiders gave big contracts to free agent linebackers Nakobe Dean (36.03 million over 3 years) and Quay Walker (40.5 million over 3 years) this off-season, but they are marginal starters at best and aren’t likely to be upgrades over Devin White (1,118 snaps), Elandon Roberts (654 snaps), and Jamal Adams (448 snaps), their top-3 linebackers from a year ago, who all were all decent and were not retained. Walker was a first round pick in 2022, but has not lived up to expectations, starting 57 of 58 games played, but maxing out as a marginal starter linebacker while having multiple below average seasons, including one in 2025 across 900 snaps.

Dean was a decent every down linebacker in 2024 (857 snaps), but he tore his patellar tendon at the end of the season and was not quite the same upon his return (403 snaps in 10 games) in 2025. He is still only in his age 26 season and could be better in 2026, another year removed from the injury, but that was his only season as a capable every down player in four seasons in the league and he hasn’t played in all 17 games since his rookie season, missing 21 games total in the past three seasons. Depth is also a concern, with the third linebacker job linebacker to go to either 2024 5th round pick Tommy Eichenberg, who has played 167 snaps in two seasons in the league, or 2025 7th round pick Cody Lindenberg, who didn’t play a snap as a rookie. This is an underwhelming linebacking corps.

Grade: C+

Secondary

Along with keeping Maxx Crosby, the Raiders also kept probably their second best defensive player from 2025, cornerback Eric Stokes, who was retained as a free agent on a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal. A first round pick in 2021, Stokes has always flashed talent, but injuries limited him to 587 snaps total in 2022 and 2023 combined and, upon his return in 2024, he had lost his starting job and played just 587 snaps, despite being healthy enough to play all 17 games. 

Stokes played pretty well in 2024 though and, after signing a one-year prove it deal with the Raiders last off-season, he took things to another level in 2025, starting all 16 games he played and leading the league in coverage snaps per completion, allowing just 28 completions for 261 yards all season. Still only going into his age 27 season, Stokes’ injury history is a concern and he is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season, so there is a possibility he misses time or regresses, but he was still a great value on a contract that priced in his history. The starter next to Stokes will likely be Darien Porter, a 2025 3rd round pick who flashed potential across 607 snaps as a rookie and earned more playing time as the season went on (315 snaps in his final five games). 

The third cornerback will likely be Taron Johnson, an experienced slot cornerback who they acquired via trade for the Bills, but Johnson has missed seven games with injury over the past two seasons, has been more of a liability when on the field than he used to be in those two seasons, and now is heading into his age 30 season, which is why the Bills let him go in what amounted to a salary dump. If he struggles to start the season, he could be benched for one of two rookies, 2nd round pick Treydan Stukes or 4th round pick Jermod McCoy, the latter of whom could have been a 1st round pick if he didn’t miss all of last season with a torn ACL that he might not be fully recovered from. 

Stukes could also be a candidate to start at safety, where he would unseat 2022 undrafted free agent Isaiah Pola-Mao, who has started 31 games over the past two seasons, but has been decent at best. Whoever wins that starting job would start next to Jeremy Chinn, a consistently above average starter whose only concern is durability, with 15 games missed in six seasons in the league and at least one game missed in five of those six seasons. This secondary isn’t much different than a year ago, but that is not a bad thing, as this is a solid unit overall.

Grade: B+

Kickers

The Raiders moved on from long-time kicker Daniel Carlson this off-season, after seven seasons with the team. Carlson was slightly below average last season, costing the Raiders 2.27 points compared to an average kicker, but likely replacement Matt Gay was even worse, finishing with 4.57 points below an average kicker. Gay is a slightly above average kicker for his career, adding 9.60 points compared to an average kicker in 108 career games, but he has finished below average in three straight seasons, costing his teams 8.92 points over that stretch, with the Colts, Commanders, and 49ers. Now going into his age 32 season, it seems likely he would remain at least a slight liability in 2026, but the Raiders’ only other option is undrafted rookie Kansei Matsuzawa, so Gay is likely the favorite for the job.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Raiders should be better on offense this season, with a new head coach and play caller in Klint Kubiak, a new quarterback room with Kirk Cousins and Fernando Mendoza, a big-time free agent acquisition in Tyler Lindenbaum, and expected better health from Brock Bowers and Kolton Miller, arguably their two best players from a year ago. However, Cousins is expected to start at quarterback to begin the year as they bring the rookie Mendoza along slowly, which is probably for the best long-term, but probably doesn’t help their chances of winning games in the short-term, while their defense is expected to be worse in 2026 than 2025, primarily due to the loss of defensive coordinator Patrick Graham, who was always got the most out of an overall underwhelming defense in his four seasons with the team. In a tough division, this team seems destined for another last place finish, but they at least seem to be heading in the right direction.

Prediction: 5-12, 4th in AFC West

Washington Commanders 2026 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2026 NFL Season Previews, Commanders

Quarterback

In 2024, the Commanders shocked everyone by winning 12 games and advancing to the NFC Championship game, a year after going 4-13 and receiving the second pick. The player they selected with that second pick was by far the biggest part of the reason for their surprising performance, as Jayden Daniels had arguably the greatest rookie season ever by a quarterback. As a passer, he completed 69.0% of his passes for an average of 7.43 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions and, as a runner, he had 891 yards and 6 touchdowns on 148 carries, good for a 6.02 YPC average. The rest of this team was really not that much better in 2024 than it was the year before. Their improvement was mostly because Daniels carried them.

However, despite their success in 2024, there were reasons to expect the Commanders to not be as good in 2025. For one, their schedule was set to go from one of the easiest in the league to one of the hardest. They also had an unsustainably success rate on 4th downs, converting 20 of 23, which swung at least a couple games. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is more predictive than win/loss record, the Commanders ranked 10th in 2024, good but not as good as their record. 

In particular the Commanders’ defense struggled in 2024, ranking 25th, as the team was largely carried by Jayden Daniels and the offense, which ranked 9th. The Commanders were also an old team, ranking 7th in the NFL in snap adjusted age in 2024, despite having a rookie quarterback. There was also some risk that Daniels, who meant so much to this team in 2024, would regress a little in year two and/or miss time with injury, which had been a concern for him coming out of college.

In 2025, the Commanders regressed even more than expected. Their conversion rate on 4th down fell to 61.5%, still 9th in the NFL, but not nearly as good as the year prior. Their aging roster ranked 1st in snap adjusted age and looked their age. Daniels regressed when on the field and missed 10 games after suffering four different injuries to three different body parts. As a passer, he completed 60.6% of his passes for an average of 6.71 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions and, as a runner, he had 278 yards and 2 touchdowns on 58 carries, good for a 4.79 YPC average. They finished 23rd in schedule adjusted efficiency, 13th on offense and 30th on defense, and went just 5-12.

Now going into 2026, their projection is still largely the same as a year ago. They still have an old roster, 1st in average age as of this writing, and a lot of their chances for success falls on Daniels, who has a concerning injury history and plays in a way that requires him to take more hits than the average quarterback. Even in a best case scenario, the Commanders probably won’t be as good as they were two years ago because they are unlikely to have the same success as they did on fourth downs or as easy of a schedule. The Commanders probably won’t be as bad as they were a year ago, but their win total could still be closer to 2025’s win total than 2024’s win total.

With Daniels being likely to miss time with injury again, the backup quarterback position is very important for the Commanders and they wisely brought back Marcus Mariota, who is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league. In 82 career starts, he has completed 62.8% of his passes for an average of 7.48 YPA, 107 touchdowns, and 62 interceptions, including 63.8% completion, 7.60 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in 8 starts in place of Daniels over the past two seasons. In 2025, his 86.1 passer rating was not much of a drop off from Daniels’ 88.1 passer rating and he fared better than Daniels in both completion percentage and yards per attempt. 

Mariota is going into his age 33 season, so there is some potential for decline, but he was still the best backup option the Commanders could have gotten this off-season, given not just his talent, but also his familiarity with the scheme and his teammates. The Commanders still desperately need Daniels to stay healthy for them to have a chance at getting back to the post-season, but having Mariota behind him is better than not having him. The quarterback room is the strength of this team.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

Arguably the Commanders’ best offensive player other than the injury prone Daniels is left tackle Laremy Tunsil. Tunsil has been an above average left tackle for years, playing at a borderline All-Pro level in his peak years, including 2025, but he is going into his age 32 season in 2026 and could easily start to decline. Even if he doesn’t decline significantly, it seems unlikely he will repeat one of the best seasons of his career again in 2026, which would hurt an offense that doesn’t have many high level players. 

The good news is that any potential decline from Tunsil could be offset by continued development from right tackle Josh Conerly, the Commanders’ first round pick in 2025. Conerly struggled mightily to start his rookie season but got noticeably better as the season went on, which he could easily continue into 2026. He has the upside to be an above average starter long-term and the plan is probably for him to be Tunsil’s long-term successor on the left side.

Right guard Sam Cosmi is also an above average starter, at least he is when he’s on the field. Cosmi only played 9 games last season, missing time at the start of the year recovering from a torn ACL suffered in the post-season in 2024, and then missing time at the end of the year with a concussion. He probably will play more games in 2026 than 2025, but he’s missed 19 games total in five seasons in the league, so it seems unlikely he will make it through the whole season without getting hurt. The good news is he is at least relatively young, heading into his age 27 season.

The rest of this offensive line is a big concern. Tyler Biadasz was released this off-season in a cap saving move. Biadasz was a solid starting center last season and actually ended up signing for more money on the open market than he was originally scheduled to make on his previous contract, so it was a mistake by the Commanders to release him rather than trading him to get at least something in return. The Commanders also didn’t replace him and instead promoted former backup Nick Allegretti, who has mostly been a backup in his career, with 34 starts in 7 seasons in the league. He did make 17 starts at left guard for the Commanders in 2024, but he was mediocre, as he has been throughout most of his starting experience and he is now going into his age 30 season, so he figures to be a liability in 2026. With only 6th round rookie Matt Gulbin behind him though, the Commanders don’t have another real option.

Left guard Chris Paul returns as the starter, even though he was a liability last season. The 2022 7th round pick has only made 8 career starts aside from last season and he wasn’t good in those starts either, so it wasn’t a surprise he struggled and he figures to continue struggling in 2026. It is possible he could face competition from Andrew Wylie, a versatile backup who was a solid starter in his prime, but who has not been the same in 19 starts over the past two seasons and who now is heading into his age 32 season. 

Along with Wylie and the rookie Gulbin, the Commanders also have 2024 3rd round pick Brandon Coleman as a reserve and he has flashed potential in 17 career starts. The Commanders’ depth isn’t bad, but this unit definitely has concerns. They are likely to get a better season out of right tackle Josh Conerly in his second season in the league and right guard Sam Cosmi should be healthier and play more games, but left tackle Laremy Tunsil could decline due to his age, while the loss of center Tyler Biadasz will hurt this unit.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

Along with the injury prone Jayden Daniels, the injury prone Sam Cosmi, and the aging Laremy Tunsil, the Commanders’ only other above average starter on offense is wide receiver Terry McLaurin, who is going into his age 31 season and coming off of a year where he was limited to 10 games by injury. McLaurin still played well when on the field last season, averaging 2.22 yards per route run, and he has a career 1.90 yards per route run average. He also doesn’t really have a history of injury, missing three games in six seasons in the league prior to last season, while surpassing 1,000 yards receiving in five straight seasons prior to last season. 

McLaurin should be healthier this season, which will be a boost to this offense, but it is possible he isn’t as good as he used to be, given his age. Any potential decline from McLaurin would be a big blow to this offense, given the state of the rest of this receiving corps. Deebo Samuel, who was the de facto #1 receiver for stretches last season and finished with a decent 72/727/5 slash line and 1.66 yards per route run, was not retained this off-season ahead of his age 30 season. 

Without Samuel, the Commanders’ other wide receiver options are 3rd round rookie Antonio Williams, who will likely be forced into a big role in year one even though he probably isn’t ready for one, Jaylin Lane, a 2025 4th round pick who averaged just 1.10 yards per route run in a limited rookie year role (348 snaps), 2024 3rd round pick Luke McCaffrey, who has averaged 1.05 yards per route run and has played 642 snaps in two seasons in the league, Treylon Burks, a bust of a former first round pick by the Titans, who has averaged 1.10 yards per route run in his career, including 0.85 in a limited role in his first season with the Commanders in 2025 (292 snaps), and veteran Dyami Brown, who has averaged just 1.10 yards per route run in his 5-year career.

The Commanders have been strongly linked to 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, either by trade or as a free agent when he is inevitably released by San Francisco, and signing him would at least give them a better #2 wide receiver by default, but he is coming off of a brutal and complex knee injury that cost him the last season and a half, so it is tough to know what to expect from him, even though he was one of the most efficient receivers in the league prior to his injury in 2023 and is only going into his age 28 season.

The Commanders signed tight end Chig Okonkwo in free agency to a 3-year, 27 million dollar deal and he could be their de facto #2 option in the passing game if Aiyuk isn’t added, even though Okonkwo has never been more than an average tight end. In four seasons in the league, the 2022 4th round pick has averaged just 1.46 yards per route run and a 49/504/2 slash line per 17 games. He could easily set career highs in 2026 thanks to a larger target share (68 targets per 17 games in his career) and an improved quarterback situation compared to the one he had in Tennessee, but he is underwhelming as a potential #2 receiving option. 

The Commanders also have John Bates, a blocking specialist with a career 0.86 yards per route run average and 72 catches in 82 career games, and Ben Sinnott, who was selected in the 2nd round in 2024, but has shown very little in two seasons in the league, averaging 0.67 yards per route run and playing just 651 total snaps. The Commanders could use more two tight end sets this year to try to mask their lack of proven wide receivers, but their tight end depth isn’t really much better. This is a below average group that would be somewhat improved if they do eventually add Brandon Aiyuk.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Running back is another underwhelming position group. The Commanders were led in carries in 2025 by Jacory Croskey-Merritt (175 carries) and Chris Rodriguez (112 carries). Both were solid runners. Croskey-Merritt rushed for 805 yards and 8 touchdowns (4.60 YPC), while averaging 3.50 yards per carry after contact, a 53.7% carry success rate, and a 19.4% missed tackle rate, while Rodriguez rushed for 500 yards and 6 touchdowns (4.46 YPC), while averaging 3.46 yards per carry after contact, a 58.0% carry success rate, and a 20.5% missed tackle rate. 

Neither of them did anything in the passing game though, with Croskey-Merritt averaging 0.49 yards per route run and Rodriguez averaging 0.34 yards per route run. Austin Ekeler was supposed to be the passing down and change of pace back, a role he was very useful in the year before, but he tore his achilles in week 2 and missed the rest of the season, leaving Jeremy McNichols, who averaged 1.01 yards per route run and had a 25/196/0 slash line, as the passing down specialist (44 carries, 31 targets).

Rodriguez wasn’t retained this off-season, nor was Ekeler, who is going into his age 31 season. To replace them, the Commanders gave a 1-year, 2 million dollar deal to Rachaad White, who is an upgrade over McNichols and will probably play a role similar to Ekeler in 2024, when he had 77 carries and 41 targets in 12 games (extrapolated to 109 carries and 58 targets over 17 games). The problem is he isn’t as good of a receiver as Ekeler, nor is he as good of a runner as Ekeler or Rodriguez. In 2024, Ekeler averaged 1.69 yards per route run and 4.77 yards per carry. In four seasons in the league, White has averaged 3.92 yards per carry on 677 carries, with 2.70 yards per carry after contact, a 47.1% carry success rate, a 14.8% missed tackle rate, and 1.11 yards per route run.

White will be a complement to Croskey-Merritt, who is a solid early down option, despite only going in the 7th round in 2025, and who will probably play a similar role as ex-Commander Brian Robinson did 2024, when he had 187 carries and 25 targets in 14 games (extrapolated to 227 carries and 30 catches in 17 games). The Commanders also added Kaytron Allen in the 6th round of the draft, though he would probably need an injury ahead of him on the depth chart to have anything more than a few touches per game as a rookie. This isn’t a bad backfield, but it isn’t a particularly good one either.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, the Commanders’ defense has been their biggest weakness over the past two seasons and in 2025 it was one of the worst in the league. They spent a lot of resources trying to improve this unit this off-season and could have up to six new starters on this side of the ball, so this unit should be better, but they could largely be better by default, as many of their new starters don’t move the needle significantly. 

Probably their most impactful addition is edge defender Odafe Oweh, who comes over from the Chargers on a 4-year, 96 million dollar deal. He isn’t an elite edge defender, but the 2021 1st round pick has developed into a solid starter, totaling 22.5 sacks, 31 hits, and a 13.0% pressure rate in 47 games over the past three seasons combined, while also providing solid run defense. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, Oweh should continue playing at a similar level in 2026.

Oweh will start opposite Dorance Armstrong, a solid edge defender in his own right and the only edge defender who played a significant role for the Commanders in 2025 that was brought back for 2026. Armstrong was limited to 7 games by a torn ACL last season, but he has totaled 26.5 sacks, 23 hits, and a 12.5% pressure rate 57 games over the past four seasons combined and he consistently plays adequate run defense as well. He might not be quite 100% in his first season back from his torn ACL, but he is theoretically still in his prime in his age 29 season and he previously had only missed one game in the three seasons prior to 2025.

The Commanders also signed K’Lavon Chaisson to a 1-year, 11 million dollar deal in free agency and he figures to be heavily involved as a rotational reserve, given the significant financial commitment the Commanders back to him. A late bloomer, Chaisson was a first round pick in 2020 and struggled across an average of 336 snaps per season in his first four seasons in the league, but he has been decent on snap counts of 508 and 641 over the past two seasons, totaling 12.5 sacks, 17 hits, and a 12.0% pressure rate across 31 games, though he has continued struggling against the run.

Additionally, veteran free agent Charles Omenihu and 5th round pick Joshua Josephs were added to give the Commanders additional depth. Omenihu, a hybrid interior defender and edge defender, has a career 10.3% pressure rate in 95 games in seven seasons in the league, not bad considering that he rushes the passer from the interior somewhat frequently. Josephs, meanwhile, was a great value in the fifth round. This isn’t an elite group, but they are solid overall and they should be noticeably better than a year ago, when this position group was a liability.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The Commanders also added interior defender Tim Settle on a 3-year, 23.49 million dollar deal and he figures to rotate heavily with incumbent starters Daron Payne (607 snaps) and Javon Kinlaw (724 snaps). He’s not as impactful of an addition as Oweh, but he should still provide some benefit to this team. A 5th round pick in 2018, Settle has developed into an above average interior defender who excels as a pass rusher and holds his own as a run defender. In 2024, he played a career high 625 snaps and totaled 5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 9.4% pressure rate, all of which set or tied his career high, and he was on his way to a similar season in 2025 before missing the final five games of the season with a foot injury (383 snaps, 7.9% pressure rate). 

If Settle is past that injury, he should play at a similar level in 2026, still only in his age 29 season. It is likely he is past that injury, but it is not a guarantee and it is worth noting that, between his injury last season and the fact that he was mostly a reserve earlier in his career, he has only exceeded 400 snaps played once in eight seasons in the league. At the very least though, he should be better than Eddie Goldman (320 snaps), Sheldon Day (203 snaps), and Jalyn Holmes (251 snaps), who all are no longer on the roster after struggling in reserve roles behind Payne and Kinlaw last season. 

Payne was a first round pick in 2018. He seemed to breakout in 2021 and 2022, when he totaled 16 sacks, 20 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate in 34 games between the two seasons combined, but he has fallen to 10 sacks, 17 hits, and a 6.9% pressure rate in 49 games in the three seasons since, despite the fact that he is still relatively young, going into his age 29 season. At this point, it seems unlikely he will regain his old form, so he is likely to remain an average, but unspectacular player in 2026, both against the run and as a pass rusher. 

One thing that has at least remained a strength of Payne’s is durability, as he has missed just three games in eight seasons in the league, despite playing 49.6 snaps per game. He could see his snap count drop a little bit in 2026, with Settle being added, which could benefit him. The Commanders would also benefit from Javon Kinlaw playing fewer snaps. He is a solid pass rusher, with 8 sacks, 10 hits, and a 8.4% pressure rate in 51 games over the past three seasons, but he is so bad against the run that it more than offsets his pass rush production. Payne and Settle could play the majority of the early down snaps, pushing Kinlaw into more of a specialized role as a pass rusher.

The Commanders also still have Jer’Zhan Newton, who ranked third among Commanders interior defenders with 432 snaps played last season. A 2nd round pick in 2024, Newton is a solid pass rusher, with 7 sacks, 9 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate in 33 career games, but, like Kinlaw, he is bad enough against the run to more than offset his pass rush production. He is still only in his age 24 season, so he has the upside to improve, both as a pass rusher and a run defender, but that is not a guarantee. Like Kinlaw, it would be best if he could focus on being a situational pass rusher this season. This is not a bad position group, but it lacks high end talent.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

Linebacker Leo Chenal looked like he would be the second most impactful addition on this defense after Oweh when he was signed to a 3-year, 24.75 million dollar deal. Chenal has only played snap counts of 446, 445, and 440 in the past three seasons, trapped behind a pair of talented linebackers in Kansas City, but the 2022 3rd round pick flashed a lot of talent in those limited roles, excelling against the run and holding his own in coverage, and he seemed like a potential breakout candidate in an every down role on a new team, still only going into his age 26 season. However, two things make his addition less impactful.

For one, the player he is replacing, Bobby Wagner, was a solid player last season across 1,132 snaps and was only not retained because he is heading into what would be his age 36 season and the Commanders wanted to get younger. Wagner played next to Frankie Luvu (1,107 snaps) last season and both were solid options for a position group that was the strength of Washington’s defense last season. On top of that, the Commanders then used the 7th overall pick on linebacker Sonny Styles, who could start next to Luvu in 2026, which would leave Chenal in a similar situation to the one he was in with the Chiefs.

Luvu is going into his age 30 season and it is possible he ends up being the odd man out, but, even if he isn’t what he was in his prime, he was still a solid starter last season and the Commanders have so far kept him on a 9 million dollar non-guaranteed salary, which would be an odd thing to do if they were planning on benching him. Perhaps they will eventually let him go if he can’t lock down a starting job and having too much depth isn’t a bad thing, but it remains to be seen how this position group will shake out and the Commanders might have committed too much of their limited resources to one position group.

Grade: A-

Secondary

The Commanders also signed cornerback Amik Robertson to a 2-year, 15.02 million dollar deal, but that is an overpay, as Robertson’s addition is subtraction by addition, as he has been one of the worst starting cornerbacks in the league the past few seasons, particularly last season. Given his salary and the Commanders’ lack of other options, he is locked into a top-3 cornerback role with a pair of recent second round picks, Mike Sainristil and Trey Amos. 

Sainristil was decent across 978 snaps as a rookie, but took a step back in year two, struggling across 1,024 snaps. He has some bounce back potential in 2026 and could even have his best year yet in his third season in the league, but his future doesn’t look as bright as it did a year ago. Amos, meanwhile, was mediocre across 511 snaps in 10 games as a rookie last season, before breaking his leg. He could take a step forward in year two, but that is not a guarantee, especially given that he is coming off of a major injury. 

If Amos or any of the Commanders’ other cornerbacks miss time this season, they would probably turn to another free agent addition, veteran Akhello Witherspoon. He has been a decent starter at points in his career, but he has started just 7 games in the past two seasons and now heads into his age 31 season, so he is an underwhelming #4 cornerback. The Commanders don’t have a better option though.

Another free agent addition, safety Nick Cross was signed to a 2-year, 13 million dollar deal and figures to start at a position that was a big weakness for the Commanders in 2025. Cross has started 34 games in the past two seasons, but has been mediocre in both seasons. The 2022 3rd round pick is still only going into his age 25 season, so it is possible he has better days ahead of him, but it is also very possible he remains a liability in 2026. He will start next to either Quan Martin, who started 16 games last season for the Commanders, Will Harris, who started 9 games between the start and end of the season, with an injured reserve stint in the middle, or Jeremy Reaves, who started 8 games in Harris’ absence last season. All three are subpar options.

Martin went in the 2nd round in 2023 and has started 37 of 49 games played in three seasons in the league, with 32 starts in the past two seasons, but he has been a liability in all three seasons. Harris has had some better days, but he has struggled in back-to-back seasons and is now going into his age 31 season. Reaves has primarily been a special teamer in his career, playing 725 defensive snaps in his first seven seasons in the league combined before last season (708 snaps), and he played like a special teamer last season. Now going into his age 30 season, he should go back to being a special teamer, even without another good option at the position. This secondary seems likely to be one of the worst in the league again this season.

Grade: C

Kickers

The Commanders went through three different kickers last season, before ultimately settling on Jake Moody, who looks likely to be their starter in 2026. Moody was a 3rd round pick of the 49ers in 2023, but he cost the 49ers  points compared to an average kicker as a rookie, 12.20 points compared to an average kicker in his second season, and was ultimately cut after one game in 2025, in which he missed a pair of field goals inside 40 yards. Moody was better with the Bears and then the Commanders last season, but still finished the season 5.59 points below an average kicker in just 9 games. In total, his 21.51 points below average are the worst in the league over the past three seasons combined. Moody still has time to get it together and could build on the progress he made down the stretch last season, but he could also struggle in 2026, in which case the Commanders don’t have a good alternative, with undrafted rookie Drew Stevens currently being the only other kicker on the roster.

Grade: C

Conclusion

In 2024, Jayden Daniels dragged a poor roster to the NFC Championship game, with help from a weak schedule and an unsustainably high success rate on 4th downs. In 2025, the schedule got harder, their 4th down rate predictably regressed, Daniels regressed and got hurt, and their roster remained weak. In 2025, Daniels will probably be healthier, but he is still more injury prone than most quarterbacks, their schedule won’t be easy, their 4th down success rate is likely to stay where it is, and the roster is overall still pretty weak. It will take a complete bounce back year from Daniels for this team to even make the post-season and it is much more likely that they fall short for the second straight year. Adding Brandon Aiyuk would improve their outlook slightly, but not enough for me to consider them a playoff team.

Prediction: 6-11, 3rd in NFC East

Tennessee Titans 2026 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2026 NFL Season Previews, Titans

Quarterback

In 2024, the Titans were the worst team in the league, going 3-14, and they got the #1 pick as a result. That #1 pick got them quarterback Cam Ward, but the rest of this roster remained a disaster and Ward, considered raw for a #1 overall pick, struggled mightily in his first season in the league, in large part due to the issues around him. Again, the Titans went just 3-14. Now going into 2026, the Titans spent aggressively in free agency and got a new coaching staff, led by defensive minded head coach Robert Saleh, who consistently gets the most out of his defenses, and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, a former head coach who will essentially be the head coach of the offense. 

The Titans are hoping these improvements will lead to a big jump in Cam Ward’s effectiveness and the team’s win total, but a lot of the moves they made won’t move the needle in a significant way and, even if they improve somewhat, they have a long way to go to even be a decent team, after finishing last season 31st in schedule adjusted efficiency, including 30th on offense and 23rd on defense. Ward finished his rookie season with 59.8% completion, 5.87 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions.

Ward did get better as the season went on, which is a promising sign, as he went from a 5/6 TD/INT ratio in his first 8 games to a 10/1 TD/INT ratio in his final 9 games and 58.1% completion in his first 8 games to 61.6% completion in his final 9 games, but his YPA fell from 6.01 to 5.71, which is the most predictive quarterback stat and which means that this offense still did not move downfield consistently. His supporting cast was a big part of the problem and I would expect a better season from both Ward and his supporting cast this season, as well as his coaching, but he could easily remain a well below average starting quarterback.

Ward at least didn’t miss a game as a rookie, though he did suffer a shoulder injury in week 18 that cost him a lot of the off-season. In his absence, the Titans went to Brandon Allen, who is one of the worst backup quarterbacks in the league with a career 73.3 passer rating in 10 career starts. This season, the Titans will at least have a better veteran, Mitch Trubisky, behind him. Trubisky was a bust as the #2 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, but he has carved out a long career as a solid backup and, overall, he has a 86.9 career passer rating in 57 starts. Still, this is overall a below average quarterback room unless Ward can make massive strides in year two.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

The Titans’ receiving corps was their biggest issue on offense last season and was the position group they focused most on improving this off-season, giving a 4-year, 70 million dollar contract to free agent wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson and using the 4th overall pick on wide receiver Carnell Tate. They also came to a renegotiated contract with wide receiver Calvin Ridley for 13 million and will get him back after multiple leg injuries, including a broken leg, limited him to 250 snaps in 7 games last season.

Robinson surpassed 1,000 yards receiving last season with a 92/1014/4 slash line, but it took him 140 targets to get there. The year before, on the same target total, he managed just a 93/699/3 slash line. Robinson is a former second round pick who is still only going into his age 25, but he is also only 5-8 and doesn’t have a huge upside as a result. He’s probably best as a #2 receiver rather than the #1 receiver he was forced into being last season with Brian Daboll’s Giants. Carnell Tate has a bigger upside and is relatively NFL ready, but he could still struggle through growing pains as a rookie. Calvin Ridley had a 1000+ yard season as recently as 2024 and has surpassed that mark three times in his career, but he is now going into his age 32 season and coming off of a major injury. They are not a bad top receiver trio, but they are not a good one either.

The good news is they should be a lot better than what the Titans had last season. Last season, their top-3 wide receivers were 4th round rookie Elic Ayomanor, who averaged 1.02 yards per route run and had a 41/515/4 slash line, fellow 4th round rookie Chimere Dike, who averaged 1.02 yards per route run and had a 48/423/4 slash line, and veteran journeyman Van Jefferson, who averaged 0.93 yards per route run and had a 29/350/1 slash line. This season, Jefferson is not on the roster, while Ayomanor and Dike will be no higher than 4th on the depth chart unless injuries strike ahead of them, in which case either one could be improved over last season in their second season in the league.

The Titans overall leading receiver last season was actually tight end Chig Okonkwo, who had a 56/560/2 slash line and 1.33 yards per route run. Unfortunately, he left as a free agent and, while he shouldn’t be that big of a loss, the Titans downgraded by bringing in Daniel Bellinger on a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal to replace him. In four seasons in the league since being drafted in the 4th round in 2022, Bellinger has averaged just 0.98 yards per route run and his 286 receiving yards last season were a career high, but Brian Daboll had him with the Giants and seems to like him as a scheme fit.

With Bellinger replacing Okownko, the Titans could give a bigger role to incumbent #2 tight end Gunnar Helm, who flashed potential as a receiver (1.45 yards per route run, 44/357/2 slash line) as a 4th round rookie in 2025. He is a projection to a larger role, but he has proven he deserves that bigger role, especially with Bellinger replacing Okonkwo. Even if he doesn’t start or play as many snaps as Bellinger, Helm is probably the best tight end on the roster. Even with Okonkwo gone, this should still be a better receiving corps overall compared to last season, but largely by default.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

In addition to losing starting tight end Chig Okonkwo, the Titans also lost a pair of starters on the offensive line this off-season. One of those losses will be more impactful than the other. Right guard Kevin Zeitler was not retained, ahead of his age 36 season, but, despite his age, he was still an above average starter in 16 starts last season. Making matters worse, his likely replacement is Cordell Volson, a 2022 4th round pick who made 48 starts in his first three seasons in the league, but who consistently struggled and then missed all of 2025 with injury. His biggest competition for the starting job will be 2025 5th round pick Jackson Slater, who played just 31 snaps as a rookie, and 5th round rookie Fernando Carmona, both of whom are probably even worse options than Volson.

The loss of center Lloyd Cushenberry will be less impactful because he was below average in 15 starts last season. However, his likely replacement, Austin Schlottmann, is unlikely to be any better. Schlottmann has had some decent moments, but ultimately has only started 18 games in eight seasons in the league, with a career high of 4 starts in a season, and he is now going into his age 31 season. Given his age and that he is a first-time full-time starter, he is unlikely to find success in 2026. However, his only real competition for the role is 6th round pick Pat Coogan, leaving Schlottmann as the heavy favorite to start. 

The Titans’ best offensive lineman is left guard Peter Skoronski, who has improved in every season in the league since going 11th overall in 2023, going from an average starter to an above average starter to one of the best guards in the league in 2025. Skoronski is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season, but he should remain at least an above average starter in 2026 and, still only in his age 25 season, it is possible he has permanently turned a corner and will remain one of the best guards in the league for years to come.

At tackle, the Titans have two players that they have made big investments in, but who have yet to live up to the price tag. Left tackle Dan Moore was added on a 4-year, 82 million dollar deal last off-season, making him the 16th highest paid tackle in the league in terms of average annual salary, but he has never been more than an average starter, while making 82 starts across five seasons in the league. 

Meanwhile, right tackle JC Latham, selected 7th overall in 2024, has also only been an average starter across 30 starts in two seasons in the league, though he is still only going into his age 23 season and has the upside to take a step forward, perhaps a big step forward, in his third season in the league in 2026. Depth is suspect at tackle too, as their likely swing tackle is Austin Deculus, a 2022 6th round pick who struggled mightily in five starts last season, after starting just one game in his first three seasons in the league combined. This offensive line has one bright spot in left guard Peter Skoronski, but this is a below average group overall.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

The Titans running back room largely remains the same this season. Tony Pollard figures to lead the team in rushing for the third straight season, after totaling 2,161 yards and 10 touchdowns on 502 carries (4.30 YPC) over the past two seasons combined, with 3.31 yards per carry after contact, a 47.2% carry success rate, and a 13.3% missed tackle rate. His age is a bit of a concern, going into his age 29 season at a position that ages faster than most, and he is going into the final year of his contract, so the Titans used a 5th round pick on Nicholas Singleton as a potential long-term option, but I wouldn’t expect him to have a big role in year one unless Pollard gets hurt.

Tyjae Spears also remains, but the Titans have been hesitant to ever use him as more than a passing down specialist, giving him just 6.1 carries per game in his career, since being selected in the 3rd in 2023. Spears has been effective in that role though, averaging 1.27 yards per route run and a 51/353/1 slash line per 17 games. That is significantly better than Pollard, who has averaged 0.73 yards per route run over the past two seasons. Spears has been less effective as a runner though, with 4.09 YPC, 2.95 yards per carry after contact, a 43.4% carry success rate, and a 22.7% missed tackle rate in his career. I wouldn’t expect his role to expand in 2026, barring an injury to Pollard, in which case Spears would likely split the workload with the rookie Singleton, rather than taking over as a true lead back. This is a decent, but underwhelming backfield.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

As I mentioned, the Titans’ new head coach Robert Saleh has consistently gotten the most out of his players as a defensive play caller and, with Brian Daboll essentially being the head coach of the offense, that will free up Saleh to focus on defense and call plays on that side of the ball. The Titans seemed to have a focus this off-season on rebuilding their defensive line into one that better suits Saleh’s scheme, including the addition of four players who have played for Saleh in previous stops. 

The biggest move was trading T’Vondre Sweat, who was an above average interior defender last season, but whose size at 6-4 364 made him a poor fit for a scheme based around speed and athleticism. In exchange for Sweat, the Titans got edge defender Jermaine Johnson, who was with Saleh with the Jets. To replace Sweat, the Titans signed Jordan Elliott and Solomon Thomas, who were with Saleh with the 49ers and Jets respectively. 

Even if they are more familiar with the scheme, both should be obvious downgrades, not just from Sweat, but also from free agent departure Sebastian Joseph-Day, a veteran rotational player who was solid across 470 snaps last season. Elliott has consistently been a below average pass rusher (career 4.7% pressure rate) and run stopper across an average of 483 snaps per season in six seasons in the league. Thomas has at least been a solid interior pass rusher in his career, with a career 7.0% pressure rate, but that dropped to 5.2% in 2025 and he’s now heading into his age 31 season, so he is unlikely to bounce back in a significant way in 2026. The Titans also added Jackie Marshall in the 6th round of the draft and he could have a deep rotational role, even as a rookie, in a thin position group.

Fortunately, the Titans still have Jeffery Simmons, who is one of the best interior defenders in the league regardless of scheme. Also a high level run defender, Simmons totaled 11 sacks, 11 hits, and a 13.8% pressure rate in 15 games last season and in the past six seasons combined he has 40.5 sacks, 48 hits, and a 10.1% pressure rate in 90 games. Still in his prime in his age 29 season, Simmons should continue dominating this season. He significantly elevates by himself a position group that is otherwise a liability. 

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, the Titans got Jermaine Johnson in the trade that sent T’Vondre Sweat to the Jets. Johnson was underwhelming last season across 678 snaps, finishing with just 3 sacks, 4 hits, and a 8.9% pressure rate, while playing middling run defense, but last season was his first season back from a torn achilles that cost him almost all of 2024 and in 2023 with Robert Saleh as his head coach he had 7.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 12.6% pressure rate, while also playing at an above average level against the run. That’s the best season of Johnson’s 4-year career and he’s no guarantee to bounce back to that level, but he is a former first round pick who is still only going into his age 27 season, so he could easily be significantly better in 2026, another year removed from his injury.

Johnson will start opposite his former teammate with the Jets and another player familiar with Saleh’s scheme, John Franklin-Myers, who the Titans signed to a 3-year, 63 million dollar deal in free agency. Franklin-Myers has totaled 32 sacks, 62 hits, and a 13.1% pressure rate in 98 games over the past six seasons, while playing adequate run defense. He is a hybrid player who can play both on the edge and on the interior and he gets pressure at an above average rate from both spots. In his last stop with the Broncos, he was primarily an interior player, but with Saleh and the Jets he primarily played on the edge and lined up on the interior on occasion, a role I would imagine he moves back into now with Saleh and the Titans. His age is a minor concern, going into his age 30 season, but even if he declines somewhat he should still be a solid pass rusher.

The Titans also traded back up into the first round to draft Keldric Faulk 31st overall to give them added depth at the edge defender position and that selection was a good value, as Faulk could have been a top-20 pick. Additionally, veteran Jacob Martin was added on a 2-year, 9 million dollar deal in free agency. The 8-year veteran has only exceeded 375 snaps in a season twice in his career and is heading into his age 31 season, but he played 700 snaps last season and had 5.5 sacks, 13 hits, and a 11.0% pressure rate, in line with his career 11.9% pressure rate. He’s a below average run defender and could decline as a pass rusher, given his age, but he is a decent reserve option.

The Titans also still have Oluwafemi Oladejo, a 2nd round selection in 2025. He struggled as a rookie in 6 games in an injury plagued season, both against the run and as a pass rusher (7.8% pressure rate), but he has the upside to be a lot better in year two. He won’t average nearly the 40.2 snaps per game he played last season in a much deeper and more talented position group than a year ago, but he could still be useful as a deep reserve.

Grade: B

Linebackers

Linebacker Cedric Gray was a bright spot for this defense last season. After only playing 48 snaps as a 4th round rookie in 2024, Gray saw 921 snaps last season. His pass coverage was below average, but he more than made up for it with excellent run defense. He’s still a one-year wonder, but he is also still only going into his age 24 season, so he easily could continue playing at the same level for years to come and has the upside to be even better going forward.

Veteran Cody Barton struggled as the other starter, playing 1,060 snaps and playing at a below average level in coverage and against the run. With Barton heading into his age 30 season and never being more than a marginal starter in his career, the Titans used a second round pick on Anthony Hill, who could start immediately and push Barton into a reserve role. Hill could have some growing pains as a rookie, but he could easily be an upgrade immediately. This is a decent, but unspectacular position group.

Grade: B-

Secondary

The Titans also remade their secondary this off-season, after this was a position of liability last season, with 15 different players making starts in the secondary, 8 at cornerback and 7 at safety, and mostly being liabilities. Three new expected starters were added in free agency. None of them are more than average starters, but they have a good chance to be better than what the Titans had last season. At cornerback, Cor’Dale Flott and Alontae Taylor were signed to deals worth 45 million over 3 years and 58 million over 3 years respectively and figure to be the two outside starters in base packages.

Flott, a 2022 3rd round pick, has developed into a decent starter over the past two seasons, while starting 24 of 28 games. Still only in his age 25, Flott could still get better, but that is not a guarantee. Alontae Taylor, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2022 and has started 53 of 64 games in four seasons in the league, while playing at about a league average level. Already going into his age 28 season, he probably is who he is at this stage of his career.

Tony Adams, another former Jet who was with Robert Saleh, was added at safety on a 1-year, 2.14 million dollar deal. He has started 35 of 42 games played over the past three seasons and has also been a marginal starter. He figures to start next to veteran Amani Hooker, the one constant in the Titans’ secondary last season, playing 918 snaps in 16 games. Hooker was a slightly below average starter last season in what was a career worst year for a normally solid starter (67 starts in as many games in the past five seasons). Still only in his age 28 season, he has some bounce back potential in 2026.

The one spot that is uncertain in this secondary is the slot cornerback spot. Marcus Harris, a 2025 5th round pick who was mediocre across 342 snaps last season, is one option. The Titans also signed former Chief Joshua Williams in free agency, but the 2022 4th round pick was mostly mediocre across 390 snaps per season in the first three seasons of his career, before only playing 17 snaps last season. The Titans could also use three safeties together frequently in sub packages, with 2025 3rd round pick Kevin Winston, who was decent across 313 snaps as a rookie, being the likely third safety. This isn’t a bad secondary anymore, but it still isn’t a good one, despite big investments.

Grade: C+

Kicker

Joey Slye was one of the worst kickers in the league and has been for years, finishing below average in terms of points in four straight seasons and five of the past six, costing his teams 22.01 points compared to an average kicker over that stretch. Despite that, the Titans have done nothing to even add competition for him this off-season. He figures to remain a below average option in 2026.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Titans spent significantly this off-season to try to improve their roster, which they did, but most of their off-season additions won’t move the needle significantly, while off-season losses like Kevin Zeitler and T’Vondre Sweat will somewhat offset their additions. With a slightly improved roster, Cam Ward going into his second season in the league, and an improved coaching staff, this team should be better than last season, but they are starting from such a low base point, ranking 31st in schedule adjusted efficiency last season, that they still figure to be one of the worst teams in the league.

Prediction: 4-13, 4th in AFC South

Pittsburgh Steelers 2026 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2026 NFL Season Previews, Steelers

Quarterback

The Steelers moved on from long-time head coach Mike Tomlin this off-season. Tomlin had famously never had a losing season in 19 years as the Steelers’ head coach, but he also just as famously had not won a playoff game since 2016, losing his final 7 playoff games as Steelers head coach. With Tomlin gone, it looked possible that the Steelers might look to rebuild this off-season, with a younger coach and a younger roster, after ranking 2nd in snap adjusted age on offense and 3rd in snap adjusted age on defense last season. 

Instead, the Steelers replaced Tomlin with an even older, more experienced head coach in Mike McCarthy, brought back most of their older players, including quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who will once again be the oldest quarterback in the league in his age 43 season, and supplemented their roster with more veterans added in free agency and via trade. The Steelers went 10-7 last season, but benefitted from a 7-3 record in one score games and a +12 turnover margin, two things that tend to be inconsistent year-to-year and that would have been especially unlikely to continue with a new head coach. They ranked 22nd in schedule adjusted efficiency and overall were starting from a lower base point than their record a year ago suggested. 

However, their off-season moves improved this team, while their decision to move on from Mike Tomlin allowed them to replace defensive coordinator Teryl Austin, whose schemes were hurting this defense, with Patrick Graham, who has consistently gotten the most of his talent in his seven years as an NFL defensive coordinator. Because of those moves, the Steelers should be better in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency this season than last season and should remain in the playoff mix even if they don’t have the same success in close games or in the turnover margin. The end result should be a familiar one for this team, 9-10 wins and a potential playoff spot, but no playoff wins.

Rodgers returning this season was never a given and he did not officially sign until mid-May, but it always seemed like the most likely option, as the Steelers never seriously pursued other veteran options, while Rodgers lacked an alternative that would have allowed him to continue starting for a playoff caliber team, ultimately choosing the Steelers over retirement. Last season, Rodgers was simultaneously a far cry from his prime self, but also good enough for the Steelers to justify bringing him back this off-season over all other veteran alternatives. He made 16 starts and completed 65.7% of his passes for an average of 6.67 YPA, 24 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 94.8 that was actually his best since 2021. At his age, there is always the possibility that he drops off completely in 2026, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he remained a decent, albeit low upside option at the quarterback position.

With this season expected to be Rodgers’ final season, the Steelers are at least trying to prepare themselves for the future, using a 6th round pick in last year’s draft on quarterback Will Howard and a 3rd round pick in this year’s draft on Drew Allar. The Steelers also still have veteran backup Mason Rudolph, who is probably best equipped to be the backup in the short-term in his age 31 season, with a career 84.7 passer rating in 19 starts, but the Steelers will probably want to keep both young development quarterbacks on the roster, meaning Rudolph could be on the outside looking in for a roster spot, unless the Steelers opt to keep four quarterbacks, which would be unusual. 

Of the two young quarterbacks, Howard is probably the best suited to be a backup this season, but it is tough to know what to expect from a quarterback that wasn’t drafted highly and that didn’t take a snap as a rookie and he is only the best suited to be a backup by default, as Allar has the tools to be a starter long-term, but fell to the 3rd round because of how much development he needs to reach his potential. This is overall a subpar quarterback room, but the re-signing of Rodgers at least keeps this team in the mix for another playoff berth.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

The biggest off-season addition the Steelers made on offense was trading for Colts receiver Michael Pittman. Wide receiver was a desperate need for the Steelers going into this off-season because five of their seven leading receivers last season were either tight ends or running backs, while nominal #2 receiver Calvin Austin, who had a 31/372/3 slash line on 1.22 yards per route run, was not retained as a free agent. With Mike McCarthy coming in and instituting a more traditional offense than the tight end and running back centric one that ex-offensive coordinator Arthur Smith preferred, wide receiver help was needed. Pittman was sent to Pittsburgh in essentially a salary dump, but he was a good value for the price of a late round pick swap and a 3-year, 59 million dollar extension. 

Pittman has averaged a 87/940/4 slash line per 17 games and 1.67 yards per route run in 6 seasons in the league. He doesn’t have much explosiveness, with a 10.8 career yards per catch average, but he has caught 68.4% of his targets in his career, despite inconsistent quarterback play and he is a good complement for DK Metcalf, who has averaged a 75/1089/8 slash line per 17 games (14.4 yards per catch) with 1.89 yards per route run in 7 seasons in the league. Both Pittman and Metcalf should remain close to their usual selves, with both going into their age 29 season. The Steelers also used a second round pick on Germie Bernard and a fourth round pick on Kaden Wetjen to further add to their wide receiver depth. Bernard figures to be the Steelers’ #3 wide receiver in a rookie, in a position group that is much better than a year ago.

The Steelers also still have a pair of solid tight ends, Pat Freiermuth, who is more of a pass catcher, and Darnell Washington, who is more of a blocker. Freiermuth has averaged a 57/583/5 slash line per 17 games with 1.42 yards per route run in his career, while Washington has seen his yards per route run average increase from 0.44 to 1.29 to 1.72 in three seasons in the league. That only led to a 31/364/1 slash line on 43 targets last season because he blocked on 59.0% of his snaps, while Freiermuth had a 41/486/4 slash line on 54 targets and blocked on just 32.4% of his snaps, but Washington has shown he can be a capable receiver when needed, while Freiermuth is also a decent blocker. They are a solid tight end duo and, even with a better wide receiver group, they should still be heavily involved in this offense with fellow tight end Jonnu Smith (54 targets) no longer on the roster. This is now a solid overall receiving corps.

Grade: B

Running Backs

The Steelers also added Rico Dowdle in free agency this off-season, to replace free agent departure Kenneth Gainwell. Dowdle is a different kind of running back than Gainwell, as Gainwell is a receiving back (73/486/3, 1.47 yards per route run in 2025), who can also run the ball on occasion (4.71 YPC, 55.3% carry success rate on 114 carries in 2025), while Dowdle is a solid runner who also can contribute as a receiver. In the two past seasons as a starter, including 2024 with Mike McCarthy’s Cowboys, Dowdle has totaled back-to-back 1000+ yard seasons on an average of 4.57 YPC, with 3.22 yards per carry after contact, a 50.7% carry success rate, and a 16.8% missed tackle rate, while averaging 1.02 yards per route run. Still in his relative prime in his age 28 season, I would expect similar effectiveness from him in 2026.

Dowdle might not get the same carry total as the last two seasons though (235 and 236), as the Steelers still have Jaylen Warren, who led this team with 958 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns on 211 carries (4.54 YPC) last season. Warren is a solid receiver (1.44 yards per route run in his career) and will move more into Gainwell’s old role, with Dowdle in Warren’s old role, but Warren also has averaged 4.73 YPC with 3.26 yards per carry after contact, a 52.1% carry success rate, and a 27.6% missed tackle rate in his career, so he should be more involved as a runner than Gainwell was last season. Dowdle and Warren form a solid duo. If either of them miss time, the backup would either be 2025 3rd round pick Kaleb Johnson, who only played 51 offensive snaps as a rookie, but could still have potential, or 7th round rookie Eli Heidenreich.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

One aging veteran the Steelers didn’t bring back is left guard Isaac Seumalo, who was an above average starter last season, but was not retained ahead of his age 33 season in 2026. He will be replaced by either Spencer Anderson, a 2023 7th round pick who has been below average across 11 career starts, veteran free agent addition Brock Hoffman, who has been decent in 16 career starts (7 at guard and 9 at center), or third round rookie Gennings Dunker, all of whom would be a significant downgrade from Seumalo. 

Fortunately, the Steelers should have one upgrade on the offensive line, as they used their first round pick on tackle Max Iheanachor. Iheanachor is likely to begin his career at right tackle, which will move incumbent right tackle Troy Fautanu to left tackle. Fautanu was a first round pick in 2024 and was an above average starter at right tackle last season, after missing almost all of his rookie year with injury. Moving him to another position is a bit of a risk, but he has the upside to play left tackle and left tackle is a more valuable position, so it makes sense to have their best tackle there, especially since it would allow Iheanachor to stay at his collegiate position. Incumbent left tackle Broderick Jones was a liability last season, so Iheanachor being added and starting as a rookie will benefit this offensive line.

Jones is also a former first round pick, back in 2023, but his career has not gone according to plan, as he has mostly struggled across 38 career starts. Making matters worse, he is coming back from a serious neck injury that could sideline him for the start of the season. Even if he is ready to play by week 1, he could face competition for the swing tackle job from Dylan Cook, who was an upgrade by default in four starts in place of an injured Jones last season. Cook went undrafted in 2022 and has never played outside of that brief stretch last season, so he is still an unknown, but he could ultimately end up being a better option than Jones. Cook and Jones will provide depth, along with whichever two of the three options at left guard do not win the starting job.

Mason McCormick and Zach Frazier remain the starters at right guard and center respectively, both going into their third season in the league, on what is now an overall very young offensive line. McCormick, a 4th round pick, was decent as a rookie in 14 starts, before taking a step forward last season and playing at an above average level in 17 starts, while Frazier, a 2nd round pick, has been above average in both seasons. Frazier is more likely than McCormick to continue playing at an above average level in 2026, due to his more proven track record and his higher draft status, but McCormick could have permanently turned a corner and could easily remain above average in 2026 and beyond. This is a young offensive line, but a decent unit overall, with its only true weakness being left guard.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The Steelers brought back all of their aging veterans on defense too, with the oldest of the bunch being Cameron Heyward, who is set to go into his age 37 season. Heyward has not looked his age though, finishing last season with 3.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 9.9% pressure rate, while playing at a high level against the run. Heyward could decline in 2026, perhaps significantly, but even a significant decline from him could still result in him being an above average interior defender, given how high of a base point he is starting from.

Heyward figures to start opposite Derrick Harmon, who had a solid rookie year, playing at an average or better level both against the run and as a pass rusher (7.8% pressure rate). The 2025 1st round pick could easily take a step forward and be even better in year two. Keeanu Benton also will remain in the mix for a significant role. The 2023 2nd round pick is a bit of a liability against the run, but he has totaled 7.5 sacks, 22 hits, and a 6.9% pressure rate in 51 career games and could still improve as a run defender, only going into his age 25 season.

Yahya Black is another young interior defender the Steelers have and the 2025 5th round pick played 416 snaps as a rookie, but he was a liability against the run and as a pass rusher as a rookie (3.2% pressure rate). He could be better in year two, but it doesn’t seem like the Steelers are giving him a chance to prove it, opting instead to sign veteran Sebastian Joseph-Day. Joseph-Day is going into his age 31 season, but he has been a capable run defender and pass rusher (career 6.5% pressure rate) throughout his career, while averaging 501 snaps per season, and, even if he declines in 2026, he should still be better than Black was last season. This is a deep and talented position group.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

If the Steelers were to start to rebuild this off-season, one player who likely would have been moved is edge defender TJ Watt. Watt could have generated a significant return for the Steelers via trade this off-season, but this might be the last off-season that would be the case, as he is going into his age 32 season and has declined a little in recent years from his Defensive Player of the Year peak. On top of that, the Steelers would be in good shape at the edge defender position even without Watt, as Alex Highsmith, going into his age 29 season, is a high level starter opposite him, while Nick Herbig, going into his age 25 season, is a high level reserve who seems ready for a larger role.

Watt finished last season with 7 sacks, 14 hits, and a 9.9% pressure rate, while playing at an above average level against the run, but that is a far cry from just two years ago, when he had 19 sacks, 20 hits, and a 15.6% pressure rate, while playing at an elite level against the run. Another year into his 30s in 2026, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him decline even further in 2026, though he has a good chance to at least remain an above average starter overall.

Highsmith is also an above average all-around player, totaling 37 sacks, 36 hits, and a 13.1% pressure rate in 58 games over the past four seasons, while consistently playing at an above average level as a run defender. Still in his prime, he should remain an all-around above average player in 2026. Herbig, meanwhile, has generated a 12.5% pressure rate in three seasons in the league since going in the 4th round in 2023. 

Last season, Herbig saw a career high 610 snaps, more than his first two seasons in the league combined (607 snaps), in part because Highsmith and Watt missed four games and three games respectively, but Herbig also averaged 32.8 snaps per game in games in which he did not start, so the Steelers made an effort to get him on the field more, even at the expense of Watt and Highsmith. Herbig did not disappoint, finishing the season with 7.5 sacks, 13 hits, and a 13.3% pressure rate, while also playing at an above average level against the run. Watt, Highsmith, and Herbig were arguably the best edge defender trio in the league last season and should remain that this season.

With a top-3 like that, there isn’t much need for anyone else, but the Steelers also have 2025 4th round pick Jack Sawyer, who played 295 snaps as a rookie, mostly when Watt or Highsmith were out due to injury. Sawyer wasn’t bad, recording a 9.6% pressure rate and providing adequate run defense. He won’t see much of a role this season unless more injuries strike, but he could be better this year than he was as a rookie, which makes him better than a lot of teams’ 4th edge defender option. This is a loaded position group.

Grade: A

Linebackers

The Steelers’ linebacking corps was the weakness of their defense last season. Patrick Queen (1,112 snaps) and Payton Wilson (733 snaps) were their top-2 linebackers in terms of snaps and both were liabilities. Queen has had some decent years in the past and is still only in his age 27 season, so he could bounce back, but this is now back-to-back below average seasons for him. Wilson, meanwhile, showed more promise in a smaller role (493 snaps) as a 3rd round rookie in 2024, so he at least has upside, but, like Queen, there is no guarantee he is any better this season. Top reserve Malik Harrison (295 snaps) also struggled, as he has throughout his six seasons in the league, on an average of 258 snaps per season. 

The only Steelers linebacker who did not struggle last season was Cole Holcomb, who played 198 snaps in 8 games and was at least a solid run defender, while also being decent in coverage. Holcomb used to be an above average linebacker before tearing everything in his knee midway through the 2023 season and missing over a season and a half. He’s also now going into his age 30 season and his solid play last season came in limited action, but there is at least some hope he could be a solid situational player for the Steelers this season, even if he isn’t what he once was. Holcomb should at least beat out Harrison for the #3 linebacker job. With Holcomb potentially playing a bigger role, Queen at least having some bounce back potential, and Payton Wilson being young and having some upside, it is possible the Steelers’ linebacking corps is better in 2026 than 2025, but largely by default, as this is still a below average unit.

Grade: C+

Secondary

Another aging veteran the Steelers kept this off-season is Jalen Ramsey, who is heading into his age 32 season. Ramsey was a high level cornerback in his prime and an above average cornerback as recently as 2024, but his play fell to a league average level in 2025 and there is a good chance he never bounces back, given his age. The Steelers moved him to safety midway through the season to try to get more out of him as he ages. That didn’t seem to help, but perhaps that move will have some benefit in his first full season at his new position in 2026.

Ramsey will start at safety next to free agent addition Jaquan Brisker, a decent, but unspectacular starting option. The more impactful free agent addition the Steelers made on defense this off-season was cornerback Jamel Dean, who came over from the Buccaneers on a 3-year, 36.75 million dollar deal. Dean is another aging veteran, going into his age 30 season, but he isn’t totally over the hill yet and hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, arguably coming off of the best season of his career. Dean probably won’t repeat his career best year again in 2026, but the 7-year veteran has been an above average starting cornerback for years, with his only weakness being durability, as he has missed 21 total games due to injury in his career. Even with age and injury concerns though, he should be a welcome addition for a cornerback room that needed help.

Dean will start opposite Joey Porter, a 2023 2nd round pick who has developed into an above average starter and who could still have room for further growth, only going into his age 26 season. The third cornerback job will probably go to Asante Samuel, who the Steelers took a flier on mid-season last year as he worked his way back from a serious neck injury that ended his 2024 season early. Samuel played decently across 222 snaps last season and, prior to his injury, he was starting to develop into an above average starter. Still only going into his age 27 season, Samuel still has time to develop into what it looked like he was becoming before the injury if he can stay healthy. As far as #3 cornerbacks go, Samuel is an above average option.

The Steelers also used a third round pick on Daylen Everette to give them more insurance at cornerback in case injuries strike, which is a higher than average possibility for Samuel and Dean. The Steelers could also use three safeties together in some sub packages, with DeShon Elliott, who is likely to be a backup with Brisker being added, being an experienced reserve who has mostly been a decent starter across 69 career starts. This is an above average secondary overall.

Grade: B+

Kickers

Chris Boswell had a down year by his standards in 2025, but he still counted for 2.92 points above an average kicker, down from 8.12 points above average in 2023 and 14.63 points above average in 2024. Boswell is going into his age 35 season, so perhaps he is starting to decline, but kickers can kick at a high level into their mid to late 30s and it is very possible that his relative struggles last season were more the result of the year-to-year variance inherent at the kicker position than age. He should remain at least an above average kicker in 2026 and has the upside to be among the best kickers in the league.

Grade: A-

Conclusion

The Steelers were not as good as their 10-7 record last season, going 7-3 in one-score games and finishing with a +12 turnover margin, two things that are not consistent year-to-year. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is more consistent year-to-year, they ranked just 22nd. They were also one of the oldest teams in the league last year, with several aging veterans who could be worse this year than last year. However, they also upgraded this offense by adding wide receiver Michael Pittman and running back Rico Dowdle, while upgrading their defense by adding cornerback Jamel Dean and defensive coordinator Patrick Graham, who has always gotten the most out of his talent and now gets to work with the most talented defense he has ever worked with. It might not be enough for the Steelers to make the post-season again this year, but they should at least be in the mix for a playoff spot.

Prediction: 9-8, 3rd in AFC North