The Football Fan Spot
Written for football fans, by a football fan
2010 NFL Mock Draft
1st round 2nd Round 3rd Round "Should" Mock
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This mock is what I think will happen. To see what I think should happen, check out my alternate "Should" Mock Draft.
1. St. Louis Rams 1-15
I have said it all along that this pick would and should be a quarterback, but I think I had the wrong quarterback. Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford showed up to the combine needing to prove his shoulder strength after two separations and a surgery last season. His shoulder not only passed with flying colors, but he put on 15-20 pounds of muscle, a major sign of his strong wrong ethic. Two major concerns of his were arm strength and shoulder health and he put both of those concerns to rest at the Combine. I still say Clausen is the better quarterback, but a former NFL GM polled about 12, maybe more, current NFL GMs, about who they preferred, Clausen or Bradford, and every one of them said Bradford. Even if the Rams’ GM was not asked, which I find unlikely, it is still a very good sign for Bradford that he has this many supporters around the league. Many will argue Ndamukong Suh here, but, as dominant of a prospect he is, he doesn’t have the positional value here. History has shown, if a team needs a left tackle or quarterback early in the draft, they will take that above all else, even the consensus top prospect. Remember Glenn Dorsey? How about Aaron Curry? Here’s some facts. Since 1998, 36 players have gone in the top three overall. 15 have been quarterbacks, 6 have been offensive tackles, and 6 have been defensive ends. That’s only 25% that aren’t quarterbacks, offensive tackles, or defensive ends. When you look closer, all 12 #1 overall picks since 1998 have been quarterback, offensive tackles, or defensive end. Those positions just have so much more positional value than any other. For more facts on the top 3 picks, click here. The Rams don’t need an offensive tackle or defensive end, so it’ll be quarterback here. Right now, other mock drafters seem to be leaning towards Suh over Bradford and Clausen, but there has been an interesting shift to Bradford as the favorite in recent weeks. For more information check out our NFL Mock Draft Database.
2. Detroit Lions 2-14
After the Lions traded a 5th rounder for Corey Williams, Ndamukong Suh no longer looks like a lock here because defensive tackle is no longer a positional need, with Williams and Sammie Lee Hill. Some people are actually saying that this is a bad thing, the Lions filling their need in another way and essentially passing on Suh. I think it’s genius. Since when is filling your needs with cheaper options a bad thing. Now the Lions can focus on their other needs, hopefully ones of more positional value. Russell Okung would make a ton of sense at this pick, but the coaching staff actually seems committed to Jeff Backus at the left tackle position, though I won’t rule Okung out because of the positional value. The Lions proved last year that they will take best available regardless of need as they showed that last year, drafting a tight end at 20 over a much needed left tackle and then doing the same thing at 33 with a strong safety. I don’t know what the Lions’ draft board looks like and there actually is a possibility that Okung tops it, but for now I am going to say it’s a safe bet that its topped by Tennessee S Eric Berry. On all of the Big Boards I’ve seen across the internet, Berry is ranked really high, higher in almost all cases than Okung, so while I think Okung would be the smart move, to protect their young quarterback, Berry makes more sense to put here because of the Lions' tendency to draft best available. Other options here include trading the pick. They have said on several occasions that trading the pick is an option and they could get a lot of positional value out of this slot, but teams rarely trade into the top 3. Besides, I can’t think of anyone in the top 5 who needs Suh that badly. besides Tampa who is unlikely to trade up just one spot. Seattle at 6 makes some sense, but they have way too many needs to trade up, and after 6, a trade up into the 2nd slot is way too complicated. The final option is that the Lions just take Suh, because he’s best available, and put him into a very crowded (and expensive) defensive tackle rotation with Williams and Sammie Lee Hill, but it’s more likely they go with either Berry or Okung.
Trade:
If Nebraska DT Ndamukong Suh falls to the Bucs at 3, they will be ecstatic. There were actually some rumors that the Bucs would move up to 1 to get Suh so if they can get him at 3 to fix their run defense, which ranked 32nd in the league last year and really hasn’t been good since Warren Sapp left. Suh also adds to their pass rush. All that being said, the Buccaneers are always trying to be frugal, so they could trade down here. Trading down to 6 with Seattle makes a ton of sense as Seattle tries to jump ahead of Washington for Jimmy Clausen. They could get at least another 2nd rounder out of it, and likely another future pick and/or a player, and there’s actually a good chance that both Suh and McCoy are still there at 6 and I would be very surprised if both weren’t. Washington has too many other needs and too much money already invested in their defensive line and Kansas City has used their last 2 first rounders (both top 5 picks) on a defensive lineman. I can’t see them taking 3 defensive lineman, who all play similar positions, 3 years in a row.
Seattle receives: 3rd pick (value: 2200)
Tampa Bay receives: 6th pick (value: 1600), 40th pick (value: 500), and a 2011 3rd
3. Seattle Seahawks 5-11 (via TB)
Now with the 3rd pick, Seattle takes their future franchise quarterback, Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen and could either sit him a year behind Matt Hasselbeck, or trade Hasselbeck for some 2011 picks and/or some veterans to fill needs. Hasselbeck has developed Marc Bulger syndrome from the all the hits he has taken behind a poor offensive line in Seattle the past few years, and played really bad down the stretch last year. They need to have a successor and a 2010 fallout plan for him and they could trade a reliable one like Clausen without moving up.
4. Washington Redskins 4-12
I’ve said in recent weeks that this pick will come down to a quarterback, either Clausen or Bradford, whichever fell, or Russell Okung. Thanks to a trade, neither quarterback fell and Washington’s pick has essentially been made for them. Jason Campbell is being given another shot next year in Washington, by being given a 1st round tender, though this does not rule out the Redskins taking a quarterback at some point. Campbell could redeem himself next year in a new system, without all that pressure in his face and adding Oklahoma State OT Russell Okung to the offensive line as a left tackle, would greatly help Campbell. Okung reminds me a lot of Ryan Clady, who Mike Shanahan had in Denver. If the Redskins take a quarterback, it should be in the 4th and not the 2nd (they have to 3rd) because after Clausen and Bradford, the quarterbacks are pretty similar for a while, unless they want to take a risk on Tim Tebow in the 2nd, which they could because owner Daniel Snyder loves the big name, but I think in that case the fact that he would be a horrible fit for Shanahan’s offense would win out. Look for them to take someone like Sean Canfield in the 4th.
5. Kansas City Chiefs 4-12
Brandan Albert was one of the worst starting left tackles in the league this year and he’s movable, either by trade or more likely to a different position, for many reasons. He doesn’t have a large contract. The regime that drafted him is no longer in town. He has versatility position wise and can also play right tackle or left guard in addition to left tackle. There’s a very good chance that Albert isn’t their left tackle next year. Scott Pioli comes from the Bill Belicheck school of positional value, as shown by his passing up on Aaron Curry, the superior prospect, for Tyson Jackson, who played a more valuable position, last year with the 3rd pick. He has his “franchise quarterback.” Now he needs to protect him and Iowa OT Bryan Bulaga is the best available left tackle with Anthony Davis’ stock slipping after the combine.
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-13 (via SEA)
As I said before, Nebraska DT Ndamukong Suh would be a very welcome addition in Tampa Bay, because he would help against the run, and as a pass rusher. However, the Bucs can trade down to 6, because, though it’s unlikely either Washington or Kansas City would take Suh, it’s even more unlikely that Washington would take Suh and Kansas City would take McCoy. The Bucs would love Suh, but they would be fine with McCoy.
7. Cleveland Browns 5-11
This spot had been called a crossroads spot by me in recent weeks, but if Oklahoma 3-4 DE Gerald McCoy is still available, this pick would be so much easier for the Browns to choose. McCoy isn’t an ideal 3-4 defensive end, but he can play the position and he has too much value to be ignored here. The Browns just traded Corey Williams to the Lions so they need a replacement 3-4 defensive end.
8. Oakland Raiders 5-11
Maryland OT Bruce Campbell ran a 4.85 at 6-6 314 at the Combine. He also benched 34 reps of 225 pounds and had 36 ¼ inch arms. This makes him the greatest offensive lineman of all time in Al Davis’ mind, even greater than Robert Gallery. If Davis thought he was getting a good deal with Gallery at 2 in 2004 (over guys like Larry Fitzgerald, Phillip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger), then imagine how thrilled he’ll be when he sees Campbell still available at 8.
9. Buffalo Bills 6-10
The Bills are switching to a 3-4, which is a brilliant idea because they don’t have any of the personnel for it (besides Aaron Maybin). I don’t get why teams that don’t have the personnel to make the switch are making the switch, but I guess it’s just a trend. The Bills were 31st in the league in stopping the run last year and with no true nose tackle on the roster, they might actually be worse next year, especially when you consider that the Bucs have added Suh. This nose tackle class is fairly average, but with so many teams without the necessary nose tackle switching to a 3-4, there will be a bunch of nose tackles that are reached for this year in the 2nd-4th round range. The Bills have an opportunity to actually get one without making a huge reach here by taking Tennessee NT Dan Williams. The Bills need a quarterback and a left tackle and those have more positional value, but I think they will be turned off by Anthony Davis’ work ethic and there are no franchise quarterbacks available here and I can’t see them doing what Seattle did and moving up to 3 to get one.
Trade: I’m not putting too many trades in this mock because they can be so tough to predict, but this one makes too much sense. The Jaguars are financial cautious, need Tim Tebow to sell tickets, sucked on defense last year, and don’t have a 2nd rounder. They can’t wait until the 3rd to take Tebow because they would be risking it, but he would be an enormous reach at 10 and that would not allow them to fix their awful defense in the 3rd, and they’d have to pay Tebow a ton. If they move down to 18, in a trade with the Steelers, they could get a 2nd rounder, save money on their first rounder, pick up a good defensive player, and still get Tebow in the 2nd. It’s a win-win-win-win. As for Pittsburgh, they would want to move up to get possibly the most impressive 3-4 middle linebacker prospect of the decade in Rolando McClain.
Pittsburgh gets: 10th pick (value: 1300)
Jacksonville gets: 18th pick (value: 900), 52nd pick (value: 380)
10 Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7 (via JAC)
The Steelers already have an amazing defense, but no reason why they couldn’t add a defensive stud like Alabama MLB Rolando McClain to the mix. James Farrior just turned 35 years old and doesn’t have many good year left in him at the middle linebacker positions. The Steelers and the Ravens have both had good defenses this decade, but the Steelers have lacked one thing the Ravens have, Ray Lewis. I’m not guaranteeing McClain will be the next Ray Lewis, but the premature comparisons are there and they certainly aren’t unreasonable.
11. Denver Broncos 8-8 (via CHI)
I’ve had Dez Bryant here in recent weeks, but if the Broncos trade Brandon Marshall (or let him go through free agency for a first rounder) because Josh McDaniels would rather have a team of completely silent players than players that act out a little bit, why would they want Bryant? Bryant was suspended all last season, for the most part. It was for something stupid and completely unfair, but then again Josh McDaniels is not very smart. The Broncos will go with a wide receiver here who doesn’t have a history of “character issues” that also has the size to replace Marshall. Illinois WR Arrelious Benn is not the smart pick here, but he didn’t have any problems with his coaches or the NCAA in his time at Illinois and he has the size to replace Marshall. He also didn’t produce last year and is mostly physical upside, but again, Josh McDaniels isn’t very smart. This is the guy who last season drafted a running back at 12 that he could have gotten at 18, drafted a guy at 18 who didn’t fit the scheme, traded a future first rounder for a nickel corner who did nothing this year, and traded up into the 2ndround for a blocking tight end that they could have gotten in the 7th. If Marshall is kept, Dan Williams will probably be the pick, but I could also see Jermaine Gresham go here because the Broncos will need a tight end after they refuse to resign Tony Scheffler.
12. Miami Dolphins 7-9
I’ve had them taking a nose tackle in recent weeks, but the more I think about it, the more I think Bill Parcells will love South Florida RLB Jason Pierre Paul. JPP would be a perfect fit for his scheme at rush linebacker, where they do need help, and he has great upside. If the Dolphins sign Elvis Dumervil in the offseason, he wants to follow Mike Nolan to Miami and he’s from Miami, then this pick will be a nose tackle once again, but I don’t think Parcells will pass on JPP, especially with Joey Porter gone and Jason Taylor turning 37 before next season.
13. San Francisco 49ers 8-8
When ‘Dre Bly is not busy making a fool of himself on an interception, by high stepping starting from the 30 yard line with a potential tackler a few feet behind him such that he gets tackled, loses the ball, and turns 7 points into a fumble, he’s busy getting burnt by quicker, faster, younger, more athletic receivers. The only reason he has a job is because Walt Harris, who is equally old and slow, had to have season ending knee surgery before the season. I don’t think Shawntae Spencer is the answer either, but with Nate Clements reportedly moving to free safety next year, Spencer is probably going to start another year. Regardless, they would still need a corner to play opposite him. Florida CB Joe Haden is the still the top cornerback in this draft class despite his slow 40 time. His slow 40 time was a result of having poor track running form. That can be the difference between a 4.4 and a 4.57. Good thing he plays football and doesn’t run track. There is no way you can see that 40 time and then say, well, all of those times I saw him run fast and dominant last year, those didn’t happen because he ran .15 seconds slower than projected. Haden is still an amazing athlete and an amazing corner. The tape is still there.
14. Seattle Seahawks 5-11 (via DEN)
Denver could soon be getting this pick back as the Seahawks could sign Brandon Marshall and give the Broncos this pick. Until that day, I will still mock for the Seahawks here. CJ Spiller makes some sense, but I have to think that if Pete Carroll keeps both of his first rounder, especially if he trades his 2nd rounder to move up to get Clausen, he’s going to want to walk out of the first rounder with a left tackle. Their left tackle position is a mess. Walter Jones could be done for his career and Sean Locklear, even when healthy, is more of a right tackle than a left. If they take a good zone blocking left tackle here like USC OT Charles Brown, who excelled in Carroll’s system last year at USC, they can have a very strong young offensive line. Having Bulaga and Locklear together on the offensive line would allow them to move Ray Willis from tackle to guard, where he belongs, and give them a very good offensive line for the future, with Locklear and Campbell at tackle and Willis and promising rookie, and 2009 2nd round pick, Max Unger at guard. Rob Sims could also be in the mix if he’s resigned.
15. New York Giants 8-8
As weird as it may sound, the Giants only had 32 sacks last season, despite all of the money they have invested in their defensive line. Now, Osi Umenyiora wants out because he’s insulted that he was turned into a 3rd down rusher only late last season. There’s a good chance they either cut him to take his large cap number off of the payroll, or trade him to a team like St. Louis who needs a veteran defensive line leader. Osi has also had his best success under Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo, the former Giants defensive coordinator. If Osi leaves, they’ll definitely have to look for more help on the defensive line and even if he stays, they might consider Georgia Tech DE Derrick Morgan here simply because Giants GM Jerry Reese is such a fan of the best player available strategy when it comes to drafting.
16. Tennessee Titans 8-8
The Titans are known for their defense under Jeff Fisher. However, defense is now an issue for them. They lost Albert Haynesworth and replaced him with Jovan Haye, which, no offense to Haye, is a big downgrade. Starting corner Nick Harper is 35 and their linebackers are very mediocre with the exception of Keith Bulluck, who happens to be 32 and in the last season of his contract. They got some good pressure up the middle from their defensive tackles, but all of their defensive tackles are under 300 pounds. They need to add that versatility interior rusher with size, like they had with Haynesworth, to this mix to take on double teams and free up some of the exterior rushers. UCLA DT Brian Price is a bit of a one year wonder, but if he had gone back to school next year and repeated what he did this year, we would be talking about him next year in the same way we are talking about Gerald McCoy right now. He’s an extremely talented interior rusher with good upside.
17. San Francisco 49ers 8-8 (via CAR)
Joe Staley is supposed to be the left tackle, but he’s hurt. Even when he’s healthy, he’s a liability against the pass and belongs at right tackle where the Niners currently have a load of crap. The Niners have 2 picks in this first round and can use one of the two, with no other huge needs that they can fill with the players left on the board, on an elite left tackle. Oklahoma OT Trent Williams had a great Combine and, though he may not be an elite left tackle, he can play both left and right and allow the Niners to mix and match him and Staley on the line in the way they see best fit.
18. Jacksonville Jaguars 7-9
The Jaguars traded down to get some defense, without having to risk Tim Tebow not being there in the 3rd. However, that doesn’t tie them to defense. They recently have signed Aaron Kampman to fix their awful pass rush, which was a brilliant move, so defense isn’t as enormous of a priority to this team as it once was. The Jaguars need to sell tickets first and foremost otherwise they might not exist (as we know them) in a few years. A defensive player isn’t going to do that as well as an offense player and with Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant still available here at 18, they should take him. Bryant is a big name, big play wide receiver and that will help them sell tickets. Drafting Bryant here doesn’t mean they don’t take Tebow if he’s available in the 2nd, but it certainly adds to their cause.
19. Atlanta Falcons 9-7
The Falcons need both a defensive end and a cornerback, but Clemson RB CJ Spiller represents too much of a value here. CJ Spiller is the type of player that can really be added to any team. There aren’t a lot of teams that have playmakers like him and the Falcons are one of them. He can backup Michael Turner, complimenting him as the speed back and 3rd down back to Turner, the power back. He can also help in a big way on special teams and maybe even play some slot receiver. He could take their offense to a new level.
20. Houston Texans 9-7
The Texans just lost Dunta Robinson to free agency, and, while it’s good they didn’t overpay for him like the Falcons did, this does weaken their cornerback position, which was already weak as it was. In fact, their corners had a grand total of 1 interception all last year. They can’t beat the Colts and stop Peyton Manning like that. Boise State CB Kyle Wilson is shooting up draft boards at the moment, and, unlike a lot of prospects who shoot up this fast this late, I am ok with it because I have always kind of graded Wilson as that late 1st-early 2nd round type cornerback. This is well within his range in my opinion and a good pick for a Texans team in need at the position.
21. Cincinnati Bengals 10-7
The Bengals don’t have any glaring needs besides wide receiver, so they can just take best available. Safety isn’t a huge need, but they certainly could upgrade Chris Crocker at free safety and drafting Texas S Earl Thomas adds yet another young talented playmaker to their young talented defense.
22. New England Patriots 10-7
Benjamin Watson is a free agent this offseason and he could have been upgraded anyway. Oklahoma TE Jermaine Gresham has too much value to fall much farther down than 22. He has experience and has had success in an offense very similar to the one the Patriots run, in the past at Oklahoma. He would provide Tom Brady with a solid over the middle target in case Wes Welker is not 100% to start next season.
23. Green Bay Packers 10-7
The Packers biggest need, by a mile, is an offensive tackle. Both Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton are well up there in age and also injury prone and they have no depth, for the most part, behind either. However, after they resigned Clifton to a ridiculous 3 year 20 million dollar deal, they aren’t tied to the position here and they can continue their philosophy of best available. This doesn’t completely eliminate Anthony Davis, but Davis didn’t look good at the combine, lowering his stock in many teams’ eyes, especially those who run zone style blocking schemes, which the Packers do. I can’t imagine he’ll be that high on their draft board. Michigan RLB Brandon Graham is a lot more likely to top that board at this point. Brad Jones was decent late last season, but that was only a small sample size. He’s still an undersized former 7th round pick. Graham would be a much better upgrade and fit the scheme nicely.
24. Philadelphia Eagles 11-6
Shawn Andrews is hurt again and might not play again in his career. Good thing they gave him all that money. Andy Reid loves to invest in his offensive and defensive lines so he’ll look for a big mauling offensive lineman to play opposite Jason Peters here. Rutgers OT Anthony Davis definitely fits that model. He is a big 6-5 320 pound right tackle and if Andy Reid puts him on his all fat diet, he could be up to 340 in no time. All of Reid’s starting offensive lineman are over 320 pounds.
25. Baltimore Ravens 10-8
After stealing I mean “trading for” Anquan Boldin from the Cardinals, the Ravens don’t need to take a receiver here. They still need one more receiver and a tight end to add some depth to their receiving corps for Joe Flacco. However, they don’t need to address those needs here. In fact, all of their needs would be reaches for the most part here, so I think they’ll just go with best available as they often do. Ray Lewis is an amazing player, but he’s getting up there in years and Tavares Gooden is nothing special either. If they could add Missouri MLB Sean Weatherspoon to the mix at the middle linebacker position, it would further add to their strengths and give them a future replacement for Lewis, as well as someone who could be an upgrade over Gooden in the immediate future.
26. Arizona Cardinals 11-7
The Cardinals actually had a strong pass rush last year, in terms of number of sacks, but most that was from their defensive line. If they want to switch full time to a 3-4, which they should because their personnel fits it so much better, they need to get more pressure from their linebackers. All 3 of their leaders in sacks from the rush linebacker position, Bert Berry, Clark Haggans, and Chike Okeafor, are either retiring this offseason or over 33 years old. Even if 2009 2nd round pick Cody Brown, who missed all of 2009 with an injury, pans out, they’d still need one more rush linebacker for the future. That could very well be TCU RLB Jerry Hughes, the consensus top pure rush linebacker after 26 sacks over 2 years at 6-2 255.
27. Dallas Cowboys 12-6
The Cowboys cut Roy Williams in the 2009 offseason and did not replace him. Jerry Jones is probably going to want to take a big name safety here and they don’t get much bigger than USC SS Taylor Mays. He will draft Mays and play him opposite Ken Hamlin. He probably won’t even notice that Mays, unless he figures out how to defense guys man-on-man, is essentially a really, really fast version of Roy Williams.
28. San Diego Chargers 13-4
The Chargers always seem to surprise in the first round so I’ll go with a bit of surprising pick. It’s fairly obvious the Chargers need a running back after cutting LaDainian Tomlinson, but who they will pick is a mystery. Fresno State RB Ryan Matthews is what they look for in a back, good size, good speed, good hands, and a good pass protector, a real every down back. Matthews could be available when the Chargers pick again in the 2nd, but after his strong performance in the Combine, there’s a good chance he isn’t and the Chargers will want to make sure they can secure him.
29. New York Jets 11-8
Trading for Mark Sanchez was the right longterm move for the franchise, especially given how little they had to give up to move up to get him. One player they did give up was Kenyon Coleman. He is a 3-4 defensive end, so he’s absence did not hurt them a ton, especially when you consider they got a franchise quarterback, but they still do need to replace him. Penn State 3-4 DE Jared Odrick plays defensive tackle in college, but would be a natural fit for this team at 3-4 defensive end, which is a big need where they have a major hole.
30. Minnesota Vikings 13-5
How is it that Adrian Peterson struggled late last season? Poor interior blocking had something to do with it. Idaho G Mike Iupati is one of the most hyped guard prospects of the decade and he would immediately upgrade their interior line. He has huge upside and is being compared, prematurely, to Larry Allen, who is, by far, the top guard of the last 20 years.
31. Indianapolis Colts 16-3
Both Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney are free agents next offseason so they might need a replace for one of them. USC DE Everson Griffen is great value here at this point in the draft and even if they retain Mathis, you can never have enough defensive line depth. With very few needs, I can’t see them passing on someone with Griffen’s upside.
32. New Orleans Saints 16-3
The Saints just cut Charles Grant, his large contract, and his larger gut. While it was the right move, it leaves them very thin on the left side of their defensive line opposite Will Smith, at end, and Sedrick Ellis, at tackle. I would be very surprised if two of their first 3 picks were focused on getting an upgrade at left defensive tackle and left defensive end. Here they take left defensive end because of who’s left on the board and go with Florida DE Carlos Dunlap. Dunlap has major upside, but also major downside, but the Saints can afford to take a risk after winning the Super Bowl and defensive genius coordinator Gary Williams will probably think he can bring the most out of him (and he’d probably be right).
Go on to 2nd Round
Or check out what I think should happen
Or check out other mock drafts
Or make your own
Or read more of my thought on The NFL Draft
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3/8/10
