Updated 4/21/11
This is not a mock draft update. This is my “should” mock draft. This is what I feel each pick should be, based off of my Big Board, my views on team needs, and my general draft strategy.
1. Carolina Panthers- WR AJ Green (Georgia)
Green is my #2 ranked prospect, but I put him here over Patrick Peterson because he fills a bigger need. Their offense scored 4.6 points per game fewer than any other team in the league. I’m not ready to give up on Jimmy Clausen. Plenty of players have struggled in their rookie year and rebounded, especially ones who had poor supporting casts like Clausen did as rookies. I liked Clausen out of college and I give him a true #1 receiver here who can help him out right away.
2. Denver Broncos- CB Patrick Peterson (LSU)
Peterson is my #1 overall prospect and fills a need for the Broncos here. Champ Bailey turns 33 this offseason, while Perrish Cox is facing rape charges. Besides, they ranked 30th against the pass last year.
3. Buffalo Bills- 3-4 DE Marcell Dareus (Alabama)
Nick Fairley, Julio Jones, and Robert Quinn are all ranked higher on my board than Dareus, but I like Dareus in a 3-4 more than Fairley, Jones doesn’t fill a bit need, and I worry about drafting Quinn with the 3rd pick as an end and converting him into a linebacker. That’s a risky proposition. Dareus will help their 32nd ranked run defense and add to a pass rush that managed a mere 27 sacks last year.
4. Cincinnati Bengals- DE Robert Quinn (North Carolina)
Fairley is ranked higher, but doesn’t fill a need. Quinn does as they can’t count on Antawn Odom, coming off of 2 straight season ending injuries, to stay healthy opposite Carlos Dunlap. Quinn goes before Julio Jones because of his higher positional value.
5. Arizona Cardinals- RLB Von Miller (Texas A&M)
Amukamara fills a need, but Miller has more positional value for a team that desperately needs pass rushers. Both Joey Porter and Clark Haggans are over 34 and there isn’t much behind either of them.
6. Cleveland Browns- DT Nick Fairley (Auburn)
Fairley gets off the board here and helps the Browns move to a 4 man line in the 4-3, one which they majorly lack personnel for.
7. San Francisco 49ers- CB Prince Amukamara (Nebraska)
Julio Jones is ranked higher, but Prince Amukamara fills a bigger need for the 49ers, who desperately need to cut the old, overpaid, and injury prone Nate Clements or work out a deal where he comes back at a reduced rate to play free safety.
8. Tennessee Titans- WR Julio Jones (Alabama)
Kenny Britt has character problems. Nate Washington is better in the slot. Randy Moss is done. Damian Williams is still developing. Julio Jones is easily best available at this slot.
9. Dallas Cowboys- 3-4 DE Cameron Jordan (California)
Jordan is best 9th ranked prospect and best available for the Cowboys, who pick 9th. Jordan fills a need as they need another 5 technique on their 3-4 defensive line.
10. Washington Redskins- RLB Justin Houston (Georgia)
Justin Houston is a 3 spot reach on my board, but he fits a 3-4 better than Ryan Kerrigan, as he played in a 3-4 in college. He fills a bigger need than Tyron Smith and he has more positional value than Brandon Harris.
11. Houston Texans- CB Brandon Harris (Miami)
Ryan Kerrigan is ranked higher and fills a need, but again, I worry about him in the 3-4 and using the 11th pick on a guy and trying to switch his position. I reach for my 13th ranked prospect Harris, over Tyron Smith who doesn’t fill a need. Harris will allow them to move Glover Quin to nickelback or free safety and help a secondary that ranked 31st against the pass last year.
12. Minnesota Vikings- OT Tyron Smith (USC)
Smith gets off the board here. He’ll be ready to start at left tackle for the Vikings right around the time that Bryant McKinnie will have to move to right tackle because of age. In the short term, he can move Phil Loadholt to right guard where he belongs.
13. Detroit Lions- OT Anthony Castonzo (Boston College)
Passing on Kerrigan again because of how important protecting Matt Stafford should be to this team. If you have a franchise quarterback, but he can’t stay healthy, you might as well not have a franchise quarterback. Castonzo is an upgrade over Jeff Backus who can move to either right tackle or guard.
14. St. Louis Rams- DE Ryan Kerrigan (Purdue)
Kerrigan gets off the board here and becomes James Hall’s future replacement. Hall had a good year last year, but he turns 34 this offseason so I doubt know how many more of those he has.
15. Miami Dolphins- QB Cam Newton (Auburn)
I have a late first round grade on Newton so I wouldn’t take him much before this, but quarterbacks are worth the reach even when it’s 10 or so spots down your board. I’ve seen enough of Chad Henne. He’s good enough for them to get by until Newton’s ready without getting laughed at, but he’s not a franchise quarterback.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars- DE Aldon Smith (Missouri)
Smith is a 2 spot reach over Akeem Ayers and JJ Watt, but he fills more of a need for this Jaguars team that only managed 26 sacks last year and can’t count on Aaron Kampman’s health in the future.
17. New England Patriots- 3-4 DE JJ Watt (Wisconsin)
In real life, the Patriots wouldn’t take Watt because they refuse to deal with his agent Tom Condon. However, this isn’t real life. Watt is my best available and can be their future at defensive end opposite Ty Warren. Marcus Stroud and Gerard Warren are nothing more than stopgaps.
18. San Diego Chargers- RLB Akeem Ayers (UCLA)
Bowers doesn’t fit this scheme either. Ayers is 2nd best on my board and fills a need at rush linebacker where Larry English has clearly busted. The Chargers, in reality, won’t take a rush linebacker in the first and admit their mistake with English just yet, but again, this is not reality.
19. New York Giants- CB Jimmy Smith (Colorado)
Bowers doesn’t fill a need here and neither do Aldon Smith nor Jonathan Baldwin so I reach a bit and take Jimmy Smith, talented cornerback with character issues who can help shore up a Giants secondary that got absolutely torched by the Packers this year. If they want to make it back to the Super Bowl, they’re going to have to fix their secondary. They can’t count on Aaron Ross anymore.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- CB Ras-I Dowling (Virginia)
End would be the pick if there one even close to being worth this spot, given its high positional value and how big of a need it fills for the Buccaneers, who are averaging 27 sacks a season over the last 2 years. Instead they take Dowling. Aqib Talib is in serious trouble. Ronde Barber only has about a year left. Elbert Mack belongs at nickel. Myron Lewis is still developing and can also play safety.
21. Kansas City Chiefs- WR Jonathan Baldwin (Pittsburgh)
Baldwin is my 18th ranked prospect and a good value at this point. He fills a huge need for a team that had absolutely nothing outside of Dwayne Bowe at receiver last year.
22. Indianapolis Colts- OT Gabe Carimi (Wisconsin)
Offensive tackle is a huge need for them as their poor play was a huge part of the reason why Peyton Manning had his worst season in years last year. Carimi is a natural right tackle, but can play left in a pinch and they really need both positions.
23. Philadelphia Eagles- OLB Greg Jones (Michigan State)
Ernie Sims is a free agent. Stewart Bradley can’t stay healthy. Jamar Chaney is still developing. Moise Fokuo just sucks. They need some new life at linebacker and Jones is a very versatile player.
24. New Orleans Saints- RB Mark Ingram (Alabama)
They can’t count on their current group of running backs to stay healthy and Ingram is a very good value at this point.
25. Seattle Seahawks- RB Mikel Leshoure (Illinois)
Aside from the Marshawn Lynch run against New Orleans, they didn’t do much right on the ground last year. A true 3 down back like Leshoure would change that.
26. Baltimore Ravens- MLB Martez Wilson (Illinois)
Other than an unnecessary running back to Mikel Leshoure, the top two prospect available are linebacker. Greg Jones is the higher ranked player, but Martez Wilson is the better fit for the 3-4.
27. Atlanta Falcons- WR Leonard Hankerson (Miami)
They need a receiver opposite Roddy White, especially one who can stretch the field like Hankerson can. Their longest completion last year was 46 yards. Hankerson is BPA ignoring Leshoure and Greg Jones who don’t fill needs and Adrian Clayborn, who fills a positional need, but doesn’t quite make sense here. Clayborn is not a great pass rusher, which is what they really need to pair with Kroy Biermann.
28. New England Patriots- OT Benjamin Ijalana (Villanova)
Matt Light is a free agent and at 33 in June his best days are behind him. Ijalana gives them a new bookend with Sebastian Vollmer for the future.
29. Chicago Bears- DT Stephen Paea (Oregon State)
Clayborn and Jones don’t make sense positionally, but Paea, my 31st ranked prospect, does. He can be a replacement for Tommie Harris, who struggled last year and was consequently cut.
30. New York Jets- 3-4 DE Cameron Heyward (Ohio State)
Brooks Reed was an option here, but defensive line is a bigger need for them and Heyward is still a solid value at this point.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers- G Marcus Cannon (TCU)
A mild reach for a huge need, Cannon can play inside or outside for this team next year, which is important because they have a lot of free agents up front. Brooks Reed, Ryan Williams, and Titus Young all are higher ranked on my board, but don’t fill needs.
32. Green Bay Packers- RLB Brooks Reed (Arizona)
A mild reach, but Titus Young, and Ryan Williams didn’t fill as big of needs as Brooks Reed, who hopefully could turn out to be what LaMarr Woodley is to James Harrison in Pittsburgh, as Clay Matthews’ pass rushing sidekick, who looks just like him.
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