NFL Mock Drafts, Fantasy Football, NFL Picks, NFL Power Rankings, and more

What is this madness? Well, though it may look like something straight out of lost (4,8,15,16,23,42) it is actually the NFL Draft Pick Trade Value Chart. Basically, it is the excepted numerical value of each pick and it is very useful for trying to do draft day trades. Say you had the 13th pick and wanted to move down to 18th. Since the 13th pick has a value of 1150 and the 18th pick has a value of 900, you would expect a pick with a value of near 250 (68th pick) in return for your swap. An example of poor use of this chart, Eric Mangini. When he moved down through 3 trades from 5th to 21st in 2009, he should have gotten 900 points worth of value in return. Instead, he got the 52nd pick (380), the 191st pick (15), the 195th pick (13.4), and three players from the Jets. Add that up and for the trade to be fair according to this chart, those 3 players from the Jets had to equal 491.6 points (roughly the 41st pick). Something tells me Kenyon Coleman, Abram Elam, and Brett Ratliff aren't worth an early 2nd rounder.

My issues with this chart:

High draft picks are valued too high. So the 1st pick is worth two 7th picks? What?! Let's take a look at the last 10 7th picks and the last 10 1st picks

1st

2009: Matt Stafford

2008: Jake Long

2007: JaMarcus Russell*

2006: Mario Williams

2005: Alex Smith

2004: Eli Manning

2003: Carson Palmer

2002: David Carr

2001: Michael Vick

2000: Courtney Brown

7th

2009: Darrius Heyward Bey*

2008: Sedrick Ellis

2007: Adrian Peterson

2006: Michael Huff*

2005: Troy Williamson

2004: Roy Williams (WR)

2003: Byron Leftwich

2002: Bryant McKennie

2001: Andre Carter

2000: Thomas Jones

*=drafted by Al Davis and therefore should not be considered statistically relevant. Al Davis is insane and screwing with my results, yet another reason why he should be allowed to draft.

I know the 1st pick group has a little more talent, but two times more? Especially when you consider how much more money the 1st pick commands, I would much rather have my pick of 4 of those 7th pick guys than 2 of those 1st pick guys. 

Further showing this, Tom Brady was drafted with the 199th pick, value 11.8. I know Brady is an anomaly, but considering the 1st pick has a value of 3000, are you over 250 times more likely to draft a stud QB with the 1st pick than the 199th pick?

This is why so many of the teams that have had success this decade trade down. The Patriots do it every year and it's no surprise that they lead the NFL in Super Bowl wins this decade.