The Football Fan Spot

After losing 5-2 to the Baltimore Orioles last night, the Red Sox find themselves 7 games back of the Rays for the AL Wild Card. The Sox, who lost 2 of 3 to the Rays last weekend in St. Petersburg, stand at 74-58, 7 games back of the Rays, who stand at 81-51, a game back of the Yankees for best record in the majors. Even if the Sox were to play .700 ball the rest of the way (21-9) and the Rays were to play .500 ball (15-15), the Sox would still be a game back at season’s end. We’re looking at the Sox having to play better than .700 ball for the last month of the season and the Rays having to play .500 ball for the last month of the season in order for the Sox to make the playoffs.

I can’t see the Rays being just average for a month and, even as a Red Sox fan, I can’t see them going 22-8 or 23-7 this last month of the season, not with their roster as it currently is. Ever since Youk went down, this team has been struggling to score runs, no surprise since Youk was arguably their best offensive player. Pedroia’s not coming back. Ellsbury’s not coming back. The middle of their lineup is pretty solid with Victor Martinez, David Ortiz, and Adrian Beltre, but outside of that lineup, there’s simply too many players who are either journeymen or rookies that weren’t supposed to be part of the team this year. Guys like Ryan Kalish, Daniel Nava, Jed Lowrie, Bill Hall, Mike Lowell, and Darnell McDonald have played well, but none of them were supposed to play significant amounts of games this year, and none of them are Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Kevin Youkilis.

Their starting pitching is very strong. Clay Buchholz might be the best pitcher in the world. Jon Lester’s a very strong #2 starter that I can always count on to win big games. Dice-K, John Lackey, and Josh Beckett have their issues, but for 3-5 starters, you could do a whole lot worse. However, starting pitching alone isn’t going to win you 23 games in 30 days with the offense not hitting, the bullpen giving up leads, and the defense allowing unearned runs left and right.

It is sad to have to write this eulogy this early. I know this team would be about 10 games better with a decent bullpen, a competent 3rd base coach, and a reasonable amount of injuries. This team was playing so well, even with Ellsbury and Beckett out, in mid June, before Pedroia went down. Just before he was about to get back, Youkilis went down, and then once he came back, he got hurt again, after 2 days, and is now likely out for the year. Even with all the injuries, this team stayed in the race in the toughest division in baseball for 5 months, and still have a good enough record to be tied for the lead in the AL West with the Texas Rangers, if they were in that division. In the NL, they’d still be leading the Wild Card. This eulogy is not so much a result of a bad team, but bad luck and a bad situation, division wise. That’s what makes this so tough.

Next year will be better. The Rays are sure to lose either one or both of Carlos Pena and Carl Crawford, and possibly their stud closer Rafael Soriano as well. All of the Sox injured players will be back and hopefully the team will stay healthy. They discovered decent young players like Ryan Kalish and Daniel Nava this year, who will hopefully be part of their team next year in some way. As long as they don’t lose a big chunk of the team in free agency, guys like David Ortiz, Adrian Beltre, and Victor Martinez, they should be very competitive next year.

With the Sox out of the picture, here’s a look at how I see the MLB playoff picture playing out.

AL East: Tampa Bay

AL Central: Minnesota

AL West: Texas

AL Wild Card: NY Yankees

NL East: Atlanta

NL Central: Cincinnati

NL West: San Diego

NL Wild Card: Philadelphia

ALDS

Tampa Bay over Texas in 5

NY Yankees over Minnesota in 4

NLDS

Philadelphia over San Diego in 4

Atlanta over Cincinnati in 5

ALCS

Tampa Bay over NY Yankees in 7

NLCS

Atlanta over Philadelphia in 6

World Series

Tampa Bay over Atlanta in 5