The Football Fan Spot

LeBron James has until tomorrow night to figure out where he’s going to play next year. LeBron announced yesterday that he plans to announce where he will sign on an ESPN special Thursday night at 9 Eastern Time. The way I see it, he has 4 options at this point.

Cleveland

Pros: It’s home. They’ve won a bunch of games over the last few years and he did make a finals appearance there. Maybe all he needs is luck and you have to think that the ultimate goal for LeBron is to finish what he started in his hometown. The only question is, whether or not he believes he can do it there.

Cons: 7 years in Cleveland has got him nothing in the way of a championship. With Bosh signing in Miami today, Cleveland’s options (via sign and trade) of getting LeBron any help look pretty thin, unless they can pull off a sign and trade with New York for David Lee, but David Lee is hardly the superstar LeBron wants to play with. If he does resign in Cleveland, expect his contract to have an opt out clause after 2013, in case 10 years has got him nothing.

Likelihood: 35%

Chicago:

Pros: They have a better supporting cast than Cleveland now that they've added Carlos Boozer and they will continue to have a better supporting cast than the Cavs, even if the Cavs can make a move for David Lee. What better place than Chicago for LeBron to build his legacy. After all, it’s where the man he’s often compared to, Michael Jordan, built his.

Cons: Chicago doesn’t really jump off the page as a destination. They aren’t the best location (New York). They aren’t home (Cleveland). They don’t offer the most money (all 4 options could pay the same) and they don’t give him the best shot to win a title (Miami). They’re a solid location, but nothing is going to amaze LeBron and draw him in now that Chris Bosh is off the market.

Likelihood: 15%

New York

Pros: LeBron loves it there and it’s a huge market. With the signing of Amare Stoudamire, their supporting cast is no longer horrible and with Eddy Curry’s expiring contract, they have a good chance of getting Carmelo Anthony (who has said he wants to play there) either this offseason in a trade, or next offseason as a free agent. They also have David Lee who they could sign and trade to pick up a point guard like Tony Parker or Monta Ellis. Throw in Danilo Gallinari and/or Wilson Chandler (assuming they both don’t get sent to Denver in a Carmelo deal) and that’s a pretty solid supporting cast.

Cons: Well, right now they don’t have most of that supporting cast. They have Amare and could get either Carmelo or Parker/Ellis, but a Carmelo trade is far from a given and Lee might choose to sign elsewhere without a sign and trade, though he’d get more money in one.

Likelihood: 30%

Miami:

Pros: Bosh. Wade. LeBron. All in one place. Plain and simple, they give LeBron the best chance to win. Throw in legendary coach Pat Riley and you’ve got a very, very strong team.

Cons: If LeBron goes to Miami and wins, he’ll forever be remembered as the guy who couldn’t win until he went in Dwyane Wade’s city and teamed up with him. I could also see major power struggles on this team, especially in the last 2 minutes. This is Wade’s city, but LeBron is the better player. LeBron is going to want to be the #1 guy on this team, as will Wade, since he’s been there longest. As I’ve shown, he’s got decent shots to win elsewhere, New York with potentially Amare, Carmelo, and Tony Parker/Monta Ellis, Chicago with Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, Carlos Boozer, and maybe even the place he wants to win most, Cleveland, with Maurice Williams, Antawn Jamison, and possibly Lee.

Likelihood: 25%