The Football Fan Spot

All stats as of August 25th 2011

The Boston Red Sox came into the 2011 season with high hopes as the popular pick to win the World Series. They won 89 games and scored 818 runs, 2nd to the Yankees, in 2010 despite having Jacoby Ellsbury miss 144 games, Dustin Pedroia miss 87 games, and Kevin Youkilis miss 60. They added Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, two of the top offensive players in the league, in the offseason and many were projecting bounce back seasons from either Josh Beckett and/or John Lackey to compliment their two young breakout aces Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester.

4 games into the season and the 2011 Red Sox already would have had to make history to win the World Series. They lost their first 4 games, something no team had ever done and gone on to win the World Series. It didn’t get much better from there. They won a mere 2 of their first 12 games and didn’t get to .500 until May 15th when they were 20-20. Incidentally, that win that got them to .500 was a 7-5 win over the New York Yankees to complete a sweep of the Bombers in the Bronx. That sparked their season. Since May 13th, the Red Sox have gone 63-30 a ridiculous .677 winning percentage over 93 games.

Now they sit at 80-50, the 2nd best record in the majors behind Philadelphia, and the best record in the American League. They have a 1 game lead on the division over the Yankees, a team they have a 10-2 record against. They’ve secured a winning record over the Yanks for the first time since 2004 and there are still 6 games to go this season in that rivalry. Should the Red Sox slip out of first place, they’d still have a comfortable lead over the Angels in the Wild Card. The Angels currently trail the Yankees by 8 games. It appears very possible that this team could do something no one has ever done, win the World Series after an 0-4 start. Let’s take a look at how.

The strength of the Boston Red Sox is their offense. They’ve already scored 700 runs in 130 games, good for an average of 5.4 runs per game and good for 2nd most runs in the major leagues, 6 behind the New York Yankees. They are on pace to score 872 runs this season. Their lineup is paced by 3 legitimate MVP candidates atop the order in Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, and Adrian Gonzalez as well as a 1-5 that would make sabermetricians shit their pants.

The top 5 of Ellsbury, Pedroia, Gonzo, Kevin Youkilis, and David Ortiz combines for an average of .309, an on base percentage of .385, a slugging percentage of .519, and an OPS of .904. If their 1-5 hitters were one guy, he would rank 11th in the majors in OPS ahead of Albert Pujols at .898. Essentially, we have 5 Albert Pujols atop our lineup and 2 of them (Ellsbury and Pedroia) can steal bases.

Notice nowhere in that top 5 is Carl Crawford, their 142 million dollar offseason signing. Crawford has slumped mightily this season and by mightily I mean mightily. He slumped way longer than anyone else on the team. He wasn’t producing even when this team was winning. His slump was so long that some started to wonder if it was more than just a slump, like maybe he’s just not that good. However, in the month of August, he has 3 homeruns, 10 RBIs, 11 runs scored, 5 stolen bases and a slash line of .294/.326/.494. That’s about in line with his career numbers. If he can keep that up out of the 6 hole with the top 5 doing what they’re doing, the Red Sox are going to be very, very tough to stop offensively.

Rounding out their lineup 7-8-9, the hitters aren’t as impressive. However, they do have a good platoon at catcher in the bottom of their lineup. Catcher was a weakness coming into the season. Jason Varitek couldn’t hit. Jarrod Saltalamacchia didn’t have the support of the pitching staff. However, the two of them have morphed into a very impressive duo behind the plate with Varitek catching two pitchers (normally Beckett and whichever pitcher is starting on a day the Red Sox face a lefty), and Salty catching the other 3.

Both have embraced their roles, Varitek as the old gun, Saltalamacchia as the young kid with a lot to learn. Both have done a great job with the pitching staff, especially Varitek who has helped revitalize Josh Beckett’s career. The two combine to throw out 26% of stolen base attempts, good for 18th in the league. That might not look great, but remember Victor Martinez threw out roughly -5% of all runners in his time in Boston.

They even hit. The two combine for a slash line of .242/302/.450. That might not look great, but remember we’re living in the dead era of offensive catchers, especially with Buster Posey hurt and Joe Mauer struggling. Saltytek’s OPS of .752 would rank 7th in the majors if they were one player, right in between Russell Martin and AJ Pierzynski.

That platoon is the most successful platoon on Boston’s roster, with the other platoon being in right field. Rookie Josh Reddick starts against righties but Mike Aviles and Darnell McDonald split time in right against lefties. Both Aviles and McDonald also will play left and/or center from time to time against lefties as both Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford are left handed. Reddick looked like a gift from God when he was called up following JD Drew’s injury, but the rookie now looks more like a rookie, batting .236 since the All-Star break and .212 in the month of August.

Aviles, meanwhile, hits lefties at a .304 clip and can play anywhere on the field except pitcher and catcher, but he’s limited by a .205 batting average versus righties. Darnell McDonald is still on the roster despite a .198 batting average. His “specialty” is lefties, against whom he hits a whopping .223. Their struggles in right field since the break have some even excited for the pending return of JD Drew, something I never thought possible.

Rounding out the order is Marco Scutaro. Scutaro has been a butcher in the field this year, but his OPS of .713 would rank 7th in the American League if he had enough at bats to qualify. He sometimes gets the day off for Jed Lowrie, who can also play anywhere. Lowrie started the season off hot with an OPS of .962 for the first month of the season, but he spent a lot of time on the DL and really cooled off. His OPS now sits at .701.

Offensively, this team is set. They have the best top 5 in baseball, as well as legitimate MVP candidates in their top 3. #6 Carl Crawford is heating up and they get decent play from the bottom of their order, which changes with regularity. However, the starting rotation is the worry point for the team. Josh Beckett and Jon Lester have pitched extremely well, but John Lackey didn’t have the bounce back year he was supposed to, in fact, he got much, much worse, while Clay Buchholz has been out since mid-June with a back injury. Dice-K got hurt so long ago that I just momentarily forgot he existed.

Erik Bedard was our deadline acquisition from Seattle. He was supposed to become our #3 starter after news broke that Buchholz could be done for the season, but he’s had 1 quality start in 4 tries with an ERA of 4.09 and a win-loss record of 0-2. Tim Wakefield is always nice to have around, but we’ve seen way too much of him for Red Sox fans to be comfortable with our starting rotation situation. Andrew Miller has a nice 6-1 record, but only recently got to the point where he had more strikeouts than walks.

Beckett is set as our #1. Had he pitched as many innings as Verlander, Sabathia, and Weaver (32+ fewer than each of those 3), we’d be talking about him as a potential Cy Young candidate along with that trio. His ERA of 2.43 and WHIP of 0.97, along with an 11-5 record, certainly rival Verlander, Sabathia, and Weaver and I think he’s still the 4th best pitcher in the AL this year. If he’s your ace, you’re in good shape. I trust him to go toe to toe with Sabathia and Verlander in the postseason and maybe Weaver if the Angels make it that far. He’s got a great track record in the postseason to boot.

Detroit, New York, and the Angels might have the better aces, but we’ve owned CC (0-4 7.20 in 4 starts this season) and we have a better #2 than any of those 3 with the exception of the Angels, who might not make the playoffs. If Texas wins the West, we have the AL’s best #2 in the postseason. Jon Lester is 13-6 with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP.

Meanwhile, who is the #2 in New York has been a popular question since the season began and right now there are only two answers, AJ Burnett, but not the kind of #2 your thinking of, and Bartolo Colon…probably, assuming the stem cell therapy the 38-year-old Colon had on his elbow in the offseason continues to work its magic. In Detroit, I don’t even think they have anything close to an answer at #2. The starter with the 2nd lowest ERA on that team is Max Scherzer, who has an ERA of 4.21. The only way they win a series in the playoffs is either a miracle and/or Justin Verlander pitching 4 times in a 5 game series.

However, after the top 2, that’s where the questions begin for Boston. I tried talking myself into John Lackey and his freshly under 6 ERA as our #3 starter and this is what I came up with. Lackey was terrible to start the season, but he’s 6-1 with a 4.65 ERA since the break and if turn a blind eye to the 78 base runners in 50.1 innings he’s allowed since the break, that looks almost, sort of, maybe decent, right? He’s also proven in the postseason and for whatever reason the Red Sox offense always scores a kajillion runs when he’s on the mound. Despite his 5.98 ERA, he has a 12-9 record. That has to count for something right? Right? All in all, I’d be more comfortable if I was trying to talk myself into him as a #4. Buchholz might be back for the playoffs and in that case, he’d be our #3 and Lackey the likely #4.

Erik Bedard was the Red Sox big deadline acquisition. He could be our #3 if Buchholz can’t go, but I think it’s more likely that he becomes the #4 if Buchholz can’t go. Bedard, however, hasn’t been great since coming over from Seattle and he’s so injury prone that I think it might be best off if we put him into a glass case until October just in case. Wakefield is the other option, but I think he’s a real long shot with a 6-5 record with a 5.04 ERA. Andrew Miller, 39 strikeouts to 32 walks, is an even longer shot.

The bullpen, a major problem in 2010, is a major strength this season. Gone are the days when I would frequently send friends “I hate our bullpen” texts after it had blown up. After blowing a major league leading 8 saves in 2010, Papelbon has blown just 1 save this season in 30 tries this season. The bridge to Papelbon has also been very strong. Both Alfredo Aceves and Daniel Bard have been very close to sure things with 2.96 and 2.10 ERAs respectively. They also have 3 other guys you can go to war with in Dan Wheeler, Franklin Morales, and Matt Albers. They have ERAs of 3.89, 3.54, and 3.72 respectively.

To this point, I think the Red Sox are the favorites in the AL. They’re on a serious sustained groove right now going 63-30 in their last 93. They are 10-2 against the Yankees, 5-1 against Detroit, and 6-2 against the Angels. They may be 3-4 against the Rangers, but they are just coming off of taking 3 of 4 from them. They were swept earlier this season by the Rangers, but that was their first series of the season when they were a completely different team in terms of their level of play. I’d feel more comfortable if Buchholz were to come back by the playoffs, but they’re my pick out of the AL.

As for the World Series, I think the Red Sox would have to be considered underdogs to the Phillies. The Phillies are 83-45 right now. They have the league’s best pitching staff and have gotten better offensively over the course of the season with Chase Utley back and Hunter Pence coming in. They took 2 of 3 from the Red Sox earlier this season and will have home field advantage in the World Series. However, there’s a lot that can happen. The Phillies aren’t necessarily a lock to come out of the NL and I think the Red Sox match up very well with every team other than the Phillies. As a Red Sox fan, the only team right now I legitimately would fear facing is the Phillies.

1. New York Yankees

The good: Offseason assisted robberies of Javier Vazquez and Curtis Granderson from the Braves and Tigers respectively add new talent to last year’s World Series team.

The bad: Every one in the league is going to be gunning for them. There’s a reason no one has repeated since the Yankees of the late 90’s and most of the players from those teams are no longer on this roster.

2. Philadelphia Phillies

The good: The entire core, with the exception of a few players, from their ’08 championship team is still in tact, as is most of the core from last season’s runner up team.

The bad: Cliff Lee is gone. I know they get Roy Halladay in exchange for him, but if it isn’t broke, don’t fix it. Lee was the only pitcher that they had that beat the Yankees last year in the World Series and he did it twice.

3. Boston Red Sox

The good: Possibly the best rotation in baseball with Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, John Lackey, a maturing Clay Buchholz and hopefully Dice-K Matsuzaka, whose 2009 was lost do to injuries.

The bad: Many of their hitters are over 30 and injury prone and Victor Martinez behind the plate has one of the worst arms in baseball.

4. St. Louis Cardinals

The good: Matt Holliday protecting Albert Pujols gives them the best 3-4 lineup punch in the bigs and the pitching is always good no matter what. Two of the top 3 in 2009 NL Cy Young voting last season should make sure that they don’t have to struggle to find good pitching either.

The bad: Besides the middle of their order, their lineup doesn’t match up with the 3 teams above them on this list and maybe even a few of the teams below them on this list.

5. Los Angeles Dodgers

The good: Their offense was so much better last season with Manny in the lineup and assuming he doesn’t try to impregnate himself again, they should have him for 150 games. Since he came to town in ’08, the Dodgers have made the CS twice.

The bad: An offseason plagued by martial disputes between Owner Frank McCourt and his ex-wife and CEO Jamie made any offseason additions tough. Losing Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson hurts. They only really started making signings recently when they brought back Eric “Gag Me” Gagne on a minor league deal, but it could be too little too late in a competitive NL West.

6. Los Angeles Angels

The good: They win this division every single year. They always find some way to get the job done, while the teams below them in the division are known for their awful luck.

The bad: No team has been hurt more by free agency in the past 2 years than this team. After losing both Mark Teixiera and Francisco Rodriguez in 2008, they lost Chone Figgens, the energy of their lineup, Vladimir Guerrero, the former face of the franchise, and John Lackey, their ace, this offseason. It doesn’t help that the first two guys I mentioned went to division rivals while Lackey went to the one team they always seem to face in the playoffs.

7. Seattle Mariners

The good: The best 1-2 pitcher combo in the league with Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee add to a team that appeared to be on the verge of good things last season.

The bad: Every time they are on the verge of good things, they suck. King Felix has a history of injuries issues and their lineup overall lacks pop.

8. Minnesota Twins

The good: They return most of the core from their 2009 playoff team and get slugger Justin Morneau back from injury. Francisco Liriano should be better this year than last as that Tommy John surgery moves farther and farther into his past.

The bad: The team, overall, looks like a .500 team talent wise. I know that’s always the case, but you have to figure eventually once, they might not overachieve.

9. Chicago Cubs

The good: The talent is there and if they stay healthy and out of fights with each other, they have the talent to do good things. With Milton Bradley gone, they almost have the exact same core as their 2008 playoff team. Say what you want about Carlos Silva, who they got for Bradley in a trade, he isn’t going to cause any problems in the clubhouse. Just as long as they don’t let him on the field.

The bad: They haven’t won for 102 years. Why would this year be any different? Something always goes wrong.

10. New York Mets

The good: Getting David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Johan Santana back from injury helps, as does the addition of Jason Bay. After all, they can’t have worse luck than they did last season.

The bad: Or can they?

11. Tampa Bay Rays

The good: Teams who have a sophomore slump often do better things the next season. Their young bats are still the same for the most part as they were in ’08 when they made the series.

The bad: The difference between 2008 and 2009 was not necessarily a sophomore slump. Their bullpen just went from great to awful. They didn’t fix their ‘pen that much this offseason so its hard to predict better things from it.

12. Texas Rangers

The good: This is a 95 win team if you combine their 2008 offense with their 2009 pitching.

The bad: Their pitching staff overall lacks proven guys and the bullpen isn’t much better. I could see them struggling in the deep summer in Arlington when the ball is flying.

13. San Francisco Giants

The good: If Matt Cain continues what he did in 2009 and Jonathan Sanchez builds on his late season success and finally fulfills his potential, their rotation is going to be the best in the NL.

The bad: They did the best they could adding Aubrey Huff and Mark DeRosa to their lineup, but I don’t think it’s enough for them to improve what was a very subpar offense in 2009, at least not enough.

14. Colorado Rockies

The good: They always seem to surprise. Last season they started off awful and made it to October. A few years ago they made the World Series when no one gave them a shot.

The bad: This team has sophomore slump written all over it. Jim Tracy cannot continue to have this success. It just doesn’t make sense. Their pitching staff lacks an ace and could struggle after losing Jason Marquis to free agency.

15. Florida Marlins

The good: They have young talent up to their eyeballs once again and are always in position to make a surprise run.

The bad: They lack any veteran leadership. Very few of their players have even made the playoffs and I can’t see them stacking up well head-to-head against some of the NL’s powerhouses.

16. Chicago White Sox

The good: A full season of Jake Peavy in that rotation is a good thing for a team that almost won the division last year.

The bad: The powerhouse that won the World Series is all but gone and replaced with a lot of new faces. The talent is there, but how will it all work together?

17. Arizona Diamondbacks

The good: Brandon Webb is back from injury, to go with Dan Haren and the recently acquired Edwin Jackson in what should be a very good rotation. Their offense has its moments too.

The bad: Their offense lacks consistency and strikes out way too much. Their defense was awful last season.

18. Cincinnati Reds

The good: After finishing 6 games under .500 last season, the Reds quietly had a good offseason adding guys like Aroldis Chapman to a mix of already good young talent and appear on the verge of being above .500.

The bad: Lack of veteran leadership, plus they been on the cusp of .500 for a while talent wise and have never gotten there.

19. Detroit Tigers

The good: A good young pitching staff lead by Justin Verlander who is under contract for the future after signing an extension. Plus they have a few potential bounce back guys in their lineup.

The bad: Losing Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson hurts. They didn’t even make the playoffs last year and now they are without two of their best players. That is not good.

20. Atlanta Braves

The good: A bunch of talented young prospects almost ready for the show could add some new life to this team and mix with some of the young talent they already have up in the majors.

The bad: They seem to be unnecessarily rebuilding after trading their ace Javier Vazquez to the Yankees for 35 cents on the dollar.

21. Milwaukee Brewers

The good: That addition of Randy Wolf to their pitching staff and one of the best farm systems in the majors which is full of talent almost ready to be plucked.

The bad: Most of those prospects play positions already taken care of at the major league level. Their rotation is still thin and their bullpen could have issues bridging the gap to Trevor Hoffman.

22. Cleveland Indians

The good: A lot of young talent in a lineup that could have a nice bounce back year. With the exception of a few players, their lineup is the same one that 96 games in 2007 and was a sleeper pick of mine last year (oops).

The bad: The pitching staff  lacks an ace, and for that matter a good #2 starter, and the bullpen isn’t much better so while they have upside, their downside is very clear.

23. Houston Astros

The good: Two powerful bats in the middle of their lineup in Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee and one of the most interesting ballparks in the majors.

The bad: Their pitching staff is a joke after Roy Oswalt, who had his share of issues last year. Their offense has promise but is nowhere near as formidable as it once was. Even losing Miguel Tejada will hurt.

24. Baltimore Orioles

The good: A lot of good young talent coming in from the Miguel Tejada and Eric Bedard trades a few offseasons ago, both of which they won. Plus, Tejada is back as a free agent, adding a veteran leader to their offense and fixing a shortstop position that has been struggling to produce runs since Tejada was traded. He’s not his MVP self, but he’ll help.

The bad: They're not ready yet. They have a lot of promise, but they aren’t ready yet. They’ll climb out of the cellar, but they’re still looking up at the Yanks, Sox, and Rays.

25. Oakland Athletics

The good: The addition of two veteran guys atop their rotation who weren’t there last year, Ben Sheets and Justin Duchscherer, adds to a young pitching staff full of talent.

The bad: I’ve never even heard of most of those guys in their lineup. Plus, neither Sheets nor Justin Duchscherer threw a pitch last year so their talent is only upside based on what they done in the past.

26. Kansas City Royals

The good: A lot of young talent led by Zach Greinke, 2009 AL Cy Young award winner, has them on the cusp of good things.

The bad: We say the same thing about them every year and they still end up in last place.

27. Toronto Blue Jays

The good: Young talent from the Roy Halladay deals adds to a core of young talent that could surprise.

The bad: But most likely they won’t surprise until 2012. Losing your ace hurts. Halladay carried that team last year and I don’t see anyone in that pitching staff who can do that. Their offense also lacks major pop, so much so that they were considering bringing back Carlos Delgado. Barring a major turn around from Vernon Wells, they will also struggle to score runs.

28. Washington Nationals

The good: Intriguing offseason additions of Chien Ming Wang and Jason Marquis help their young pitching staff while Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn add some nice pop to the middle of their lineup. Stephen Strasburg should be ready by midseason and they have the upcoming #1 pick in the draft.

The bad: Pure lack of talent in uniform. Besides the guys I named previously, they don’t have enough talented guys to do much this year, as was the case last year.

29. San Diego Padres

The good: Adrian Gonzalez

The bad: Everything else

30. Pittsburgh Pirates

The good: As far as I can tell, there are no talented players on the roster that the team can trade for pennies on the dollar at the deadline.

The bad: They did that so much last year that the team lacks any talent whatsoever. 

Phillies World Series Gear 2009

The Yankees are loaded, as you would expect them to be after all the money they’ve spent this decade, especially the 440 million or so they spent on 3 players last off-season. Despite the fact that its been proven not to work as an effective offensive strategy in years past, this team wins games by hitting a lot of homeruns and any one of their hitters 1-9 is capable of hitting one out in every given at bat.

This team scored more runs than any other team this season. They hit 244 homeruns this season, good for most in the league and 20 more than the two 2nd place teams in that category, the Texas Rangers and the Yankees’ World Series opponent, the Philadelphia Phillies.

They have a very strong rotation led by ace CC Sabathia who has proven that he can mow down the opponent even on short rest. They also have off season acquisition AJ Burnett and old but steady Andy Pettitte who are capable of having big games. Their bullpen is strong as it has ever been lead by future hall of Fame closer Mariano “Mo” Rivera and a bunch of good, young, strong arms strengthening the bridge to Mo.

However, the Phillies are equally loaded. They won the World Series last year and bring to the table an even better team this year. They lost Pat Burrell in the off-season, but replaced him in the outfield with Raul Ibanez who had a breakout year this year at 37 years old despite missing about a month with injuries.

Outfielder Jayson Werth, a former career journeyman, also had a breakout year this year with 36 homeruns and 99 RBIs at age 30. Completing their outfield is Shane Victorino, who had a career year this year and made the All-Star team on the final vote, beating out  Pablo “Panda” Sandoval.

They also added 2008 Cy Young award winner Cliff Lee to their rotation to compliment 2008 World Series MVP Cole Hamels. They’ve added Pedro Martinez, who has had a Hall of Fame caliber career and has plenty of Postseason experience from his days with the Boston Red Sox.

Their only question mark coming into the Postseason was their bullpen. Brad Lidge, who didn’t blow a save all last season in 48 chances and recorded the final out for the Phillies in the World Series, blew 11 saves this season in the regular season and had an ERA of 7.21. It was unknown whether or not they would keep him as their postseason closer. Lidge has been lights out thus far with 4 saves in 4 chances so far this postseason and is yet to give up a run.

On paper these teams are extremely closely matched, but the Phillies are regarded as an underdog to the Yankees who won 103 regular season games this season, most in baseball. Often times, when teams are this closely matched, the underdog will win because they will feel disrespected and thus want it more. Baseball and life often comes down to who wants it more. It will be a great series, but I expect the Phillies to win it in 7, with Pedro Martinez pitching a dominant performance in game 7 in Yankee stadium, showing the Yankees who their “daddy’ is.

Verdict: Phillies in 7