The Football Fan Spot

After 16 MLB seasons and at the age of 38 (39 in June), longtime Yankees and Astros great Andy Pettitte has retired today. The case can be made for Andy Pettitte to make the Hall of Fame. He’s got 15 seasons of double digit wins, 200+ wins and 100 more wins than losses at 240-138, and the most all time postseason victories with 19. However, I argue that Pettitte does not belong in the Hall of Fame. He would be in a Hall of Consistently Good if there were such a thing, but he’s not a Hall of Famer.

His call to fame is his 19 postseason wins, but when you see that he also had 10 postseason losses, and a postseason ERA of 3.83, it’s not as impressive. The Yankees simply made the playoffs so much that his postseason wins are inflated. In the World Series, he’s 5-4 with a 4.06 ERA. So much for being a great big game pitcher.

I would say he was the beneficiary of being on a lot of good teams. In fact, how many years was he the best pitcher on his own team? He only led his team in wins 4 times in 16 seasons. He only topped 20 wins twice. He’s only been an All-Star 3 times. He had a sub 3 ERA twice. He’s never won a Cy Young. His career regular season ERA is 3.88. Being on a lot of good teams is the main reason why his regular season record looks so nice. He’s a number 2 starter on a good team and nothing else.  Hall of Consistently Good, but not Hall of Fame.

Nonetheless, the Yankees will miss him this year. Longevity is one thing that Pettitte had that was great. Last season, his 16th in the league, he won 11 games to only 3 losses with an ERA of 3.28, 4th lowest in his career. He got hurt and only made 21 starts, but when he started he was their 2nd best pitcher. 2nd best right until the end.

Now the Yankees go into 2011 with a rotation of CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, AJ Burnett and Phil Nova, Mark Prior, Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia and Sergio Mitre battling for the 4th and 5th starter roles. Maybe Hughes finally breaks out (18 wins last year, but in his only two years as a starter, he’s had 4+ ERAs). Maybe AJ Burnett starts playing like he’s getting paid 17 million a year, but those are maybe. Sabathia is their only consistent starter. Let’s take a look at their projected rotation with 2010 stats.

Top 3

CC Sabathia 21-7 3.18 ERA

Phil Hughes 18-8 4.19 ERA

AJ Burnett 10-15 5.26 ERA

Potential Backends

Freddy Garcia 12-6 4.64 ERA

Ivan Nova 1-2 4.50 ERA

Sergio Mitre 3.33 ERA (bullpen)

Bartolo Colon (out of the league)

Mark Prior (out of the league)

Sox fans have to love the thought of our offense against their pitching staff. Yes, the Yankees did have the better offense last season, but they only had 41 more runs than the Red Sox, and the Red Sox had Jacoby Ellsbury miss 144 games, Kevin Youkilis miss 60 games, and Dustin Pedroia miss 87 games. The Red Sox also added Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez as upgrades over Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre. I think we might have the better offense and the better pitching staff. We just need to stay healthy and not blow leads (adding Dan Wheeler and Bobby Jenks, and hopefully bounce back years from Jonathan Papelbon and Hideki Okajima should help). If we do that, we’ve got this division in the bag.

In the past week the Boston Red Sox have acquired Adrian Gonzalez (trade) and Carl Crawford (free agency). Earlier this offseason I did some number crunching and found that we could add Gonzo and Crawford without increasing our payroll significantly (provided we didn’t resign Mike Lowell, Adrian Beltre, and Victor Martinez). I posted a write up about that on here about a month ago, but even after posting it, I didn’t actually think it would happen.  And for a while it looked like it wouldn’t.

The Gonzalez deal appeared to have fallen apart at the eleventh hour because we were unable to work out an extension with Gonzalez and Theo Epstein said no deal, before trade talks rekindled and Gonzalez ended up in Beantown. After the Nationals signing of Jayson Werth for a whopping 7 years 126 million, there was a large speculation that Theo Epstein and the Red Sox ownership would not be willing to pay Crawford more than that, which likely meant he was going elsewhere. In fact, the only team that looked to have the amount of money available necessary to give Crawford more than Werth was a certain team from the Bronx. And it looked like our off-season would once again fall short to the Yankees, who seemed poised to add both Crawford and Cliff Lee, a mere two years after they added CC Sabathia, Mark Teixiera, and AJ Burnett, and once again it would be because of front office refused to splurge on free agents.

For all my years as a Red Sox fan, I had grown accustomed to watching the Yankees add all the big name players while we sat back and “waited for the market to come to us” which would eventually end in us overpaying secondary free agent targets. Julio Lugo. JD Drew. Curt Schilling (though that didn’t turn out too badly). John Lackey. Mike Cameron. Yes, we do have more titles than the Yankees in the past 10 years, something that franchise hasn’t been able to say since before World War I, but we never won a December in that period.

Yes, it’s more important to win in October than December, but I would have liked to have seen us win a December at least once, instead of watching the Yankees sign Alex Rodriguez, Jason Giambi, Mark Teixiera, CC Sabathia, the biggest name on the market every year, while we overpay for the leftovers in reaction to the Yankees moves. We were always reactors and it’s demoralizing to us fans.

Just as painful as that was watching the Yankees steal Johnny Damon right out from under our noses. Johnny Damon, the 2004 World Series hero, the Yankee killer, we wouldn’t even shell out the money for him. Our ownership has the money, but their refusal to spend it on big name free agents has always frustrated me. We haven’t added a huge name free agent since 2000 with Manny Ramirez.

This year, we’ve finally won a December with Crawford and Gonzo. I gave it about a 10% chance of happening when the offseason started and it didn’t look like we would get either right up until we did, but it happened. The Yankees will probably sign Cliff Lee, but they’re finally in our old position, the reactor position. The Yankees now want to sign Cliff Lee even more to keep up with us, giving him an extra year on their once 6 year 140 million dollar contract. Cliff Lee is significantly better than the scraps we were always left to overpay, but it still feels good not to be the ones left reacting to what the other did. We’re the team in control this year. It’s a sweet feeling knowing that we left the New York Yankees reacting to us.

Between Adrian Gonzalez’ projected extension (6 years 138 million is what I’m hearing) and the 7 year deal we gave Crawford, worth 142 million, we’ve spent 280 million dollars this offseason. I don’t even care that people are calling the Red Sox the baby Yankees, or saying that we are just like the Yankees now that we are spending money, that we’ve become everything we once hated. Those people are just jealous, in my opinion. How many of those people would be mad if their team added Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford just because they’re spending money like the Yankees? Those people all wish they were in our position.

For the record, I’m calling us the Yankees meets the A’s, or moneyball with money. We have money and we know how to use it wisely. Crawford probably won’t be worth his contract at the end of it, but what big name free agent ever is?  And our payroll won’t skyrocket as a result of this, believe it or not.

With Mike Lowell’s 12 million coming off the books after last season, as well as Adrian Beltre’s 9 million, and Victor Martinez’ s 8 million, we had room in the budget. The Sox are handling the situation with Adrian Gonzalez such that his extension won’t kick in until 2012, so he’d still be making 5.5 million dollars only next season, before making about 22-23 million per from 2012-2017.

After 2011, we have JD Drew’s 14 million coming off the books as well as Dice-K’s 10 million, Jonathan Papelbon’s 10 million, Mike Cameron’s 7 million, Marco Scutaro’s 5 million, and David Ortiz’ 12.5 million, so that 23 million dollar extension will be well within our budget and we’d still have room to bring back Papi at a reduced rate if he deserves it, or add a veteran DH, and add a good starter to replace the inconsistent Daisuke Matsuzaka in the rotation. We also have top

prospects like Ryan Kalish, Lars Anderson, and Jose Iglesias to fill voids.

This is our projected 2011 Lineup

LF Carl Crawford

2B Dustin Pedroia

1B Adrian Gonazlez

3B Kevin Youkilis

DH David Ortiz

RF JD Drew

SS Marco Scutaro

C Jarrod Saltalamacchia/Jason Varitek

CF Jacoby Ellsbury

We’ll also have Ryan Kalish on our bench to give Drew a rest, and to serve as a defensive replacement and pinch runner.

SP Jon Lester

SP Clay Buchholz

SP Josh Beckett

SP John Lackey

SP Daisuke Matsuzaka

SU Daniel Bard

CP Jonathan Papelbon

This is our projected 2012 Lineup

LF Carl Crawford

2B Dustin Pedroia

1B Adrian Gonzalez

3B Kevin Youkilis

DH David Ortiz/free agent DH/Lars Anderson

RF Ryan Kalish

SS Jose Iglesias

C Jarrod Saltamacchia

CF Jacoby Ellsbury

SP Jon Lester

SP Clay Buchholz

SP Josh Beckett

SP John Lackey

SP Free agent SP

SU Free agent SU

CP Daniel Bard

If we can add some cheap middle relief help for both years, that’s the league’s most complete team for 2011 and 2012, even if the Yankees add Cliff Lee (right now, I’m still really hoping that Lee goes to Texas or Washington). We scored 818 runs in 2010, 2nd to the Yankees. This was with Jacoby Ellsbury playing only 18 games, Dustin Pedroia playing only 75, and Kevin Youkilis playing only 102. Now we get those three back healthy and add Gonzo and Crawford.

Our pitching staff isn’t bad either if we can add some middle relief. I think we have one of the best rotations in baseball if that can stay healthy. And don’t underestimate how much a healthy Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford will help out defense and thus our pitching staff. This run prevention thing Theo Epstein has been preaching for the past few years might actually happen this year and it certainly will in 2012 when Ryan Kalish takes over for JD Drew in right. Fastest. Outfield. Ever.

We won 89 games in 2010 with so many injuries and now we add 2 of the top 25 players in the league. Even if the Yankees add Cliff Lee, we have to be the favorites right now to win it in October, and we definitely have finally won a December, leaving the Yankees reacting to us. And I couldn’t be happier about that. 

AL East

New York Yankees

Boston Red Sox*

Tampa Bay Rays

Baltimore Orioles

Toronto Blue Jays

Even as a Red Sox fan, I cannot pick them to win this division. I’d love to be wrong here, but as an unbiased writer trying to pick what I feel is the most likely outcome, I have to go with the Steinbrenners on this one. Gone are Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui from last years squad, but, though they didn’t spend much money this offseason, except for some chump change on guys like Randy Winn, they’ve quietly gotten some big names into town, stealing Javier Vazquez and Curtis Granderson from the Braves and Tigers respectively. The Red Sox are still too talented to be overlooked though. I do not like what they did this offseason, overpaying the likes of Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron, but the addition of John Lackey, no matter how much they spent on him, can’t hurt their rotation. If Jon Lester and Josh Beckett continue to give the Sox what they have been in recent years, and Clay Buchholz continues to develop, and Dice-K is even a fraction of what he was in 2008, this is probably the best rotation in baseball. Their offense is nothing to be overlooked either, though they lack that fearful middle that Sox fans have been so used to. I think they are the favorites for the Wild Card right now. The Rays season is ultimately going to depend on their bullpen. Their bullpen was great in 2008 and bad in 2009 and, coincidentally, the team made the playoffs in 2008 and not in 2009. The young talent is still there, but I’m not sold on their leaky pen enough to put them past the Sox and Yanks, who will remain divisional juggernauts once again. The Orioles have the young talent to surprise people, especially with their young outfielder, and the reacquisition of Miguel Tejada adds another bat to their lineup, though he’s not going to be the MVP he was a decade ago. The Jays just traded their ace Roy Halladay and are clearly looking towards the future. I don’t think they’ll have the pitching to contend this year at all, and I’m not expecting much from their offense either.

AL Central

Minnesota Twins

Chicago White Sox

Detroit Tigers

Cleveland Indians

Kansas City Royals

The Twins made the playoffs last season despite Justin Morneau going down with injury late. They will continue to do what they do every year, win games. I can’t tell you how they do it with a team that, talent wise, is a .500 team, but they do it. Joe Mauer is going to continue to anchor both their lineup and their defense and I’m expecting a bit of a bounce back here for Francisco Liriano, now over a year removed from Tommy John surgery. He adds to a young rotation that showed a ton of promise last season. The White Sox and a full season of Jake Peavy will be there too in contention. The Tigers gave up Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson in a head scratching cost cutting move. That will show itself on the field this year as they will struggle to get to .500. The Indians were my sleepers last year, and while they don’t have the pitching to be a true contender, their surprise some people assuming their bats stay healthy this year. The pitching staff, though not great, is underrated. They have some interest sleeper names in that seemingly ace-less (or #2 starter-less for that matter) rotation. The Royals have the young talent, but again, I can’t see them putting it all together and getting above .500.

AL West

Los Angeles Angels

Seattle Mariners

Texas Rangers

Oakland Athletics

The Mariners look better on paper and, though this may not be the best reason to not give them the division, but something has to go wrong there. They have arguably the best 1-2 starter punch in the league with Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee, but every single year, they have hope, granted not as much as this year, and the Angels still win this division. The Angels have been hit hard in free agency in recent years, Mark Teixiera, Francisco Rodriguez, John Lackey, and Chone Figgens, but this is a resilient bunch who I am picking to win the division. The Rangers could be a 95 win team if they hit like they did in 2008 and pitch like they did in 2009, but their rotation doesn’t have any starters proven for more than one good year and I’m not counting on Rich Harden to be that guy either. The A’s will pitch well, with vets with Justin Duchscherer and Ben Sheets atop the rotation and great young talent, but neither Duke or Sheets pitched at all last year, so they aren’t reliable. Plus, their offense figures to be one of the worst in the majors.

NL East

Philadelphia Phillies

New York Mets

Florida Marlins

Atlanta Braves

Washington Nationals

Not a huge fan of the Phillies trading Cliff Lee for Roy Halladay simply because, if its working, don’t try to fix it, but its hard to argue with getting Roy Halladay in your rotation next to Cole Hamels. I think this is a team that’s a lock to win the division again with a powerful offense and the best 1-2 pitching punch in the NL. The bullpen could be their achilles heel, but Brad Lidge does well in even numbered years for what its worth, and either way I think they have what it takes to make it back to the World Series. The Mets can’t be worse than last year unless their new stadium collapses on them. The addition of Jason Bay helps, but getting guys like David Wright and Jose Reyes back, hopefully for the season, helps a lot too. Don’t forget they are getting a lot of injured pitchers back as well and Carlos Beltran is reportedly going to be ready to go by May. I think this team is going to challenge for a Wild Card spot. The Marlins will always be there despite never spending any money. They have young talent up to their eyeballs. The Braves lost their best pitcher, Javier Vazquez when they traded him for 65 cents on the dollar to the Yankees, presumably to cut costs. They have some interesting young bats almost ready for the show, but I think they’re going to struggle to find the talent to make the playoffs. 75-80 wins is more likely. The Nationals will continue to be the laughing stock of the league. Jason Marquis and Chien Ming Wang are intriguing offseason additions and Stephen Strasburg’s much anticipated debut will be a big story, but they just don’t have the talent on their roster.

NL Central

St. Louis Cardinals

Chicago Cubs*

Cincinnati Reds

Milwaukee Brewers

Houston Astros

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Cardinals may have overpaid for Matt Holliday, but he’s a hell of a bat protecting Albert Pujols, who, by the way, can swing the bat alright himself. They always seem to find the pitching somewhere and with Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, both of whom were in the top 3 in Cy Young votes, atop their rotation, that shouldn’t be as hard as its been in years past. They are the clear favorites here, but watch out for the Cubbies. They have the talent to win 85+ games when they put their heads together, instead of trying to hit each other in the head with bats. Milton Bradley is gone and, say what you want about Carlos Silva, who they got in exchange for him, he’s not going to cause any problems in the clubhouse. Just as long as they don’t let him on the field. The Reds are my sleeper pick to win 81+ plus games and finally get over .500. They had some very nice quiet offseason additions and they won 78 games last year despite major injuries in their pitching staff. I think they get all the way to 81 this year. The Astros have the bats, but not much else. The Pirates did absolutely nothing this offseason and will continue to be laughed at with the Nats.

NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers

San Francisco Giants

Colorado Rockies

Arizona Diamondbacks

San Diego Padres

The Dodgers had a rough offseason thanks to a martial dispute between owner Frank McCourt and his wife and CEO Jamie McCourt. That really stopped them from doing much this offseason, but all they lost was Randy Wolf. They still have a lot of young talented players, Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw, in the rotation, and an underrated offense that was noticeable better when Manny was in the middle of the lineup last year. As long as he doesn’t try to impregnate himself again, he should be in the lineup everyday, minus a few “Manny being Manny” days off. The Giants have the pitching assuming Matt Cain continues with 2009 success and highly talented Jonathan Sanchez continues what he had going late last season, but the offense is a question mark. Adding a winner like Mark DeRosa helps, but overall I think they’ll struggle to score enough runs. The pitching will continue to bail them out of games though. The Rockies had a great season last year, but I can’t see it continuing this season. This team has potential sophomore slump written all over it, though you can never count them out. The Diamondbacks should be in it too, should their rotation stay healthy, with guys like Dan Haren, Brandon Webb, and now Edwin Jackson, but the question remains whether or not they can score the runs to support them. I think they’ll score enough to contend, but not enough to make the playoffs. The top 4 in this division are going to be very close and I expect all to win more than 80 games. The Padres will continue what seems like a permanent rebuilding effort this year and thus not contend for another season.

ALDS: Red Sox over Angels

ALDS: Yankees over Twins

NLDS: Phillies over Cubs

NLDS: Cardinals over Dodgers

ALCS: Red Sox over Yankees

NLCS: Phillies over Cardinals

World Series: Red Sox over Phillies 

Phillies World Series Gear 2009

The Yankees are loaded, as you would expect them to be after all the money they’ve spent this decade, especially the 440 million or so they spent on 3 players last off-season. Despite the fact that its been proven not to work as an effective offensive strategy in years past, this team wins games by hitting a lot of homeruns and any one of their hitters 1-9 is capable of hitting one out in every given at bat.

This team scored more runs than any other team this season. They hit 244 homeruns this season, good for most in the league and 20 more than the two 2nd place teams in that category, the Texas Rangers and the Yankees’ World Series opponent, the Philadelphia Phillies.

They have a very strong rotation led by ace CC Sabathia who has proven that he can mow down the opponent even on short rest. They also have off season acquisition AJ Burnett and old but steady Andy Pettitte who are capable of having big games. Their bullpen is strong as it has ever been lead by future hall of Fame closer Mariano “Mo” Rivera and a bunch of good, young, strong arms strengthening the bridge to Mo.

However, the Phillies are equally loaded. They won the World Series last year and bring to the table an even better team this year. They lost Pat Burrell in the off-season, but replaced him in the outfield with Raul Ibanez who had a breakout year this year at 37 years old despite missing about a month with injuries.

Outfielder Jayson Werth, a former career journeyman, also had a breakout year this year with 36 homeruns and 99 RBIs at age 30. Completing their outfield is Shane Victorino, who had a career year this year and made the All-Star team on the final vote, beating out  Pablo “Panda” Sandoval.

They also added 2008 Cy Young award winner Cliff Lee to their rotation to compliment 2008 World Series MVP Cole Hamels. They’ve added Pedro Martinez, who has had a Hall of Fame caliber career and has plenty of Postseason experience from his days with the Boston Red Sox.

Their only question mark coming into the Postseason was their bullpen. Brad Lidge, who didn’t blow a save all last season in 48 chances and recorded the final out for the Phillies in the World Series, blew 11 saves this season in the regular season and had an ERA of 7.21. It was unknown whether or not they would keep him as their postseason closer. Lidge has been lights out thus far with 4 saves in 4 chances so far this postseason and is yet to give up a run.

On paper these teams are extremely closely matched, but the Phillies are regarded as an underdog to the Yankees who won 103 regular season games this season, most in baseball. Often times, when teams are this closely matched, the underdog will win because they will feel disrespected and thus want it more. Baseball and life often comes down to who wants it more. It will be a great series, but I expect the Phillies to win it in 7, with Pedro Martinez pitching a dominant performance in game 7 in Yankee stadium, showing the Yankees who their “daddy’ is.

Verdict: Phillies in 7

I don’t like the Yankees. Many people don’t. ESPN and Sportscenter are not in that category. Of course they love them, homeruns, highlights, big names, scandals, a history of success, New York City, all of those things sell. However, I think they are going a bit overboard. In the past three days, watching Baseball Tonight and Sportscenter cover highlights and analysis of the ALCS, I have heard one ESPN analyist say that Mariano Rivera is the greatest pitcher of all time and one ESPN analyist call Alex Rodriquez the greatest hitter of all time. Now, unfortunately I do not remember the name of said analysists mostly because in my reaction, which involved a lot of screaming at the television, cursing, and nearly throwing the remote control, I completely forgot the name of these stupid fools. Why are these analysists stupid fools? Well I’m glad you asked. Both Mariano Rivera and Alez Rodriquez are deadly in what they do and put up great stats, but both lack one thing durability and because of that, they cannot be considered the greatest.

Mariano Rivera had 526 career saves, 2nd most all time to Trevor Hoffman. Depending on when Hoffman and Rivera respectively decide to hang them up, Rivera could be the saves king when its all said and done. He had a 2.25 career ERA and a WHIP of 1.01. He also hasn’t thrown more than 80 and 2/3 innings in any season other than 1996. I don’t know what he would be like as a starting pitcher, but likely, because he only has the one good pitch, albeit amazing, and untested durability, he would not have done as well as a starting pitcher. He’s amazing at what he does and has amazing mental toughness, but can we really call him the greatest pitcher of all time over guys like Cy Young, who had the durability to win 511 games, or Nolan Ryan, who had the durability to strike out 5714 batters? I say no.

I know what you’re thinking. How can I question Alex Rodriguez’s durability. He hasn’t had any major injuries. He’s played 2166 games. He’s never played less than 124 games in a season. Well, my answer to your confusion is his lack of postseason success. Now again I know what you’re thinking. How can I still be calling A-Rod a choker. He’s doing great this year. He is doing great this year, because he missed 38 regular season games and received regular rest often in the regular season. I firmly believe that A-Rod’s postseason success this year is a result of the breaks he got this regular season and also that his past failures were as a result of breaking down late in the season in October. The Yankees did the right thing giving him rest in the regular season as shown by the results he’s putting out this month. In fact I’d argue they needed to. A-Rod is a great weapon when used right, but the greatest hitters of all time, in my mind Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, and Joe DiMaggio, in that order, were great because they couldn’t be used wrongly at the plate. Their teams didn’t need to give them major rest for them to produce in October.