The Football Fan Spot

This is a bit old, but I felt it was a story that needed to be told.

The following is simply a statement of facts that may or may not be coincidental. I’m not trying to insinuate anything. I’ll leave it up to the reader whether or not he wants to insinuate something. But please do. It’s more fun that way.

Roughly 2 weeks before the 2011 NFL Draft I get an email from someone who will remain nameless for the sake of privacy.

“I have a question for you concerning your Mock Draft could you please give me a call at 555-555-5555 [not his actual number in case you were wondering].  Thank you.”

My initial thought was “that’s weird.” I get emails from readers all the time asking me about my mock draft, but never anyone telling me to call them. That’s sketch.

But I decided to google the man who will remain nameless. He left me his name, so I might as well google him to see who he is. My google search came up with a Bears assistant offensive coach under Mike Martz.

My next thought “oh shit, is he gonna yell at me for calling Jay Cutler a pussy?”

But then I calmed down and thought about how awesome this was. He said he wanted to talk to me about my mock draft so this is probably not about Cutler (side note, I gave Cutler a lot of criticism after not demanding to go back into the game against Green Bay in the NFC Championship and rightfully so, but he really impressed me with his play this season. It’s a shame that he had to miss the whole season with an injury Ben Roethlisberger has been playing with for weeks…er…I mean Jay Cutler isn’t a pussy).

Anyway, I was excited about the Bears reaching out to me. Maybe they want to give me some sort of inside source or something. So I gave the guy a call and he basically told me that Mike Martz was starting a new project where he would use specific mock drafts to help them predict what players would be available when, presumably to help them decide if they needed to make a trade or not. They picked a select few along with mine, Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, walterfootball, ourlads.com scouting services, etc, so pretty big deal. And he wanted me to put my mock draft in a spreadsheet and an easy to read format.

Awesome!

So I did that and I sent it over to him on draft day. I got a response.

“Thanks man this is really cool.  It will be interesting to see if we take the UNC guy [Marvin Austin, my prediction for them]. We like him but the draft is like a wildcard sometimes.”

So the top ten came and went and I had been doing really well. I had accurately picked 8 of the top 10 (My top 10 was Newton, Miller, Dareus, Green, Peterson, Jones, Amukamara, Locker, Watt, Gabbert).

And he emails me again around early 20s, after Kansas City had traded down from 21 to 27.

Him: “Ok so who do you think we take now?”

Me: “I'm sticking with my original pick.”

Him: “We need ol though”

Me: “Again, I don't think any of them fall. Seattle [24], Baltimore [26], and Kansas City [27] all need tackles. Only Sherrod and Carimi left. Of course, if either of them do fall, that would obviously be the pick.”

Him: “Good call so far.”

And then we’re at pick 25, Seattle on the board takes Alabama offensive tackle James Carpenter, a pick that really threw me off. I decided to send this to the assistant who will remain nameless after pick 25, during pick 26.

“Carpenter's certainly a surprise to Seattle though. Thought he'd go more mid round 2, after Carimi, Sherrod, Ijalana. Maybe you guys will get your tackle.”

Then I see something weird. Baltimore missed their pick so Kansas City got to jump ahead of them one. “Haha, what dumasses!” I thought. And then Kansas City took a wide receiver, Pittsburgh’s Jonathan Baldwin, so I looked like a bit of a dumass.

And Chicago got their tackle at 29, Wisconsin’s Gabe Carimi, and the first round ended and I had to wait until the next day for round 2. However, stories started trickling out about why Baltimore missed their pick. Apparently it was Chicago’s fault. Baltimore and Chicago had a deal where Chicago would move up and take a tackle and then at the last second they decided not to, for an unknown reason.

Uh oh.

They weren’t REALLY listening to me were they? They weren’t REALLY listening to me when I said they wouldn’t be able to get a tackle at 29, only to have me email during pick 26 when they were striking a deal with Baltimore to move up to get a tackle saying that now I thought they could get their tackle at 29, were they? I’m just a sports writer. Why would they listen to me? I mean I know I had been doing well and he told me I was doing a good job, but I’m just a sports writer. What the hell do I know?

Apparently the Ravens weren’t too happy about the Bears taking back their offer to move up at the last second. Even though Baltimore got their guy (Colorado cornerback Jimmy Smith), Baltimore still demanded Chicago give up a future pick as compensation.

Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti had this to say “It is, in my opinion, a deviation from their [The Bears’] great legacy.”

Uh oh. Hopefully they weren’t listening to me. I’m an idiot.

The 2010 NFL Draft could be the year of the quarterbacks. If everything goes right we could see 8 quarterbacks go in the first round of the 2010 NFL Draft. This is not necessarily because there are any more good quarterbacks than previous years in college football, its because of the threat of the rookie pay scale in 2011. The 2010 NFL Draft could be the last time these players are free to make however much NFL teams are willing to overpay them and this could force a lot of red shirt sophomores, true juniors, and redshirt juniors out that would have normally stayed in college, not just quarterbacks, but across all positions, though it will be most noticeable at quarterback because, with at rate that rookie quarterbacks have been paid in recent years, quarterback prospects have the most to lose finically by staying. However, even though 8 quarterback prospects could go in the first round, I do not think this is that strong of a quarterback class. Let’s take a look at my basic summaries of the 8 quarterbacks who could go first round.

QB Sam Bradford- Oklahoma

            I love Bradford. Bradford, despite coming out of a spread offense and not having the strongest arm, has it. He has amazing poise, quiet leadership, great accuracy, and is very smart. He does not force throws very often and will make the safe play rather than going for it in a situation when all of his downfield targets are covered. Bradford almost certainly would have been the top quarterback off of the board last year, going #1 to Detroit, but decided to stay for his redshirt junior year. This year, because of an injury, he is slipping some, but I still love him as a quarterback prospect. He showed last week against Baylor that he can still play well after the injury. If he stays healthy the rest of the season, I think there’s no doubt he declares and he should be a top 10 pick.

QB Jimmy Clausen- Notre Dame

            Clausen has huge hype surrounding him as the Notre Dame quarterback and a Heisman contender. He’s a true junior and has one year of eligibility left after this year, but he will really be going out on top if he leaves this year and has a lot to lose, both financially, and draft slot wise. Quarterbacks in recent years, Brady Quinn, Matt Leinart, and to some extent Sam Bradford have hurt their stocks by returning to school and allowing their games to be picked apart by scouts. I like Clausen’s upside, but I don’t think he has enough sustained success. He really struggled last year. He don’t like his decision making and I think he forces too many throws.

QB Tim Tebow- Florida

            Tebow is the one guy that most scouts are down on that I actually love as a prospect. Some team could take him in the first round either as a wildcat or as a quarterback to help fill seats, but I think he is more than a fast guy with a big name. He is a football player who can play quarterback. He’s unorthodox yes, but that does not mean bad. He has more fight in him than any quarterback in college football and probably more fight in him than most NFL quarterback. He’s a playmaker, a play extender, a leader, and a winner. So what if he’s not the ideal prototypical quarterback. He’s a senior so he’s coming out this season.

QB Colt McCoy- Texas

            McCoy has no experience playing under center. He plays in a gimmick offense that has bloated his stats some. He is athletic and has an amazingly accurate arm, but he has no arm strength and will need time to learn an NFL style offense. He’s not the type of guy you can throw out there week 1 and expect him to be a star. That will turn him into Alex Smith. His best case scenario is Chad Pennington or Jeff Garcia if handled correctly, and in the right offense he could do what Kyle Orton is doing this year, but he needs to be handled properly at the next level because he has high bust potential. Seattle and Denver could be interested in him in the first round. He’s a senior so he’s coming out this season.

QB Jake Locker- Washington

            I wrote a scouting report on Locker yesterday in which I praised his speed and athleticism, but not much else. He doesn’t appear to be an NFL caliber quarterback, at least not at the moment. Contrary to what the mainstream media is telling you, he isn’t producing, not this year, not any year. He has good arm strength, but he forces throws and missed open guys far too often. He doesn’t have a lot of pocket poise and for all of the speed he has, he is only averaging 3.3 yards per carry this season. I wouldn’t draft him before the 2nd round, but someone could grab him in the first on upside. He’d be smart to return to school because he needs time to get right and capitalize on his upside, but he could come out for fear of losing money.

QB Jevan Snead- Mississippi

            Snead has turned me sour this year. He looks awful this year. He has a cannon for an arm, but he doesn’t appear to know how to use it. He has a 46.8% completion percentage and 9 picks to 9 touchdowns, including 4 picks last week against Alabama. He forces the ball into coverage far too often and has no accuracy. Kyle Boller had a very strong arm too and he reminds Snead of Kyle Boller coming out of college. Boller sucked and still sucks in the NFL. He’s a former first round pick turned Marc Bulger’s backup. Someone could still grab Snead in the first round on upside, but he may have played himself out of the first round this season. He needs another year in school, but probably will come out for more money this season, which is bad for him, because he could be the 1st overall pick in 2011 if he stays and gets things right.

QB Tony Pike- Cincinnati

            Pike is a bit of a dark horse to make the first round right now, but he has two good seasons for Cincinnati, granted they were in a spread style offense. He’s throwing his name in with the big boys this season as he’s lighting up his opponents in the Big East. I think he makes a nice backup at the next level. He’s smart and accurate on short throws, but he has no arm strength, he’s skinny and injury prone, and he’s about as mobile as a morning woody in the pocket. I’d use a 3rd round pick on him, but nothing more. I’ve seen sites mock him as high as the mid first though.

QB Ryan Mallett- Arkansas

            Mallett is the extreme example of someone who comes out this year as a result of the threat of a pay scale in 2011. He really only has 8 starts. He started 3 games in 2007 for Michigan, got out of town at the same time Rich Rodriguez came into town, redshirted last year, and has five really good starts statistically for Arkansas this year. He’s draft eligible as a redshirt sophomore this April, but he needs more time. I’m not even sure I should be making anything resembling a scouting report on him at this point because of the small sample size and the fact that I’ve never actually seen him play in a game. It didn’t strike me until this morning when I read a mock draft that he’s draft eligible this year. He has, from what I’ve heard, a very, very strong arm, but he’s also very raw. He has first round potential this year, but he needs to go back to school. I can’t imagine he’d be NFL ready after 8 starts. That’s half of what Mark Sanchez had coming out of USC and about a third of what Alex Smith had coming out of Utah.