The Football Fan Spot

Yesterday, 13-year NFL veteran Randy Moss retired at the age of 34. Moss made 7 Pro Bowls in his career, ranks among the top 10 in every major receiving statistic, and is a future Hall of Famer, possibly on the first ballot. The move was described as a surprise by major media networks like ESPN, but really, there wasn’t anything surprising about it.

Despite the fact that last year Moss caught 28 passes for 393 yards and 5 touchdowns, career lows across the board, and was let go by 2 two teams and the fact that he’s 34 years old and finished last year as a glorified blocking receiver for the Tennessee Titans, Moss seemed to think he could have his agent tell everyone he was in “freakish shape” and contenders would start lining up to offer him multiyear deals as if he was coming off of his 23 touchdown season (a single season record by the way).

When the Jets and Patriots refused to give him anything longer than a year, and no other contenders even gave him a glance, he retired, a predictable move for the man who once famously declared “I play when I want to play.” He didn’t want to play for a team that was probably going 6-10 or sign a one year deal to be someone’s 3rd receiver, so he retired.

He was Randy freaking Moss and wasn’t going to take being disrespected in the free agency market. Why else would he have his agent so boldly declare that he was in “freakish shape” and then retire 2 weeks later? He was delusional. Don’t buy it? Remember this is the guy who arrived in New England after a terrible year in Oakland and said famously “I don’t need to revitalize nothing.”

Many have also been debating whether or not he’s for real on this retirement thing or whether he could pull a Brett Favre at some point during the season (or a Tiki Barber at some point in approximately 2016). He’s only 34 and if he really did get himself back into shape after a disappointing year last year, he can still contribute somewhere. He could play if he wanted to play.

Given that I think his retirement was a response to being disrespected by the market, I say it’s possible he comes back. I don’t think he wanted to retire, but he was just too proud to take a 1 year deal to be the Jets’ 3rd receiver or be a situation receiver for the Patriots or play for the previously 2-14 Carolina Panthers. However, for him to come back, someone’s going to have to give him what he wants, namely a multiyear deal from a contender. I say the likelihood of that is very low, but injuries happen.

Also, you look at a team like the Philadelphia Eagles. They have 3 good receivers in DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Jason Avant, but all 3 are under 6 feet tall. Moss is 6-4. They need a big receiver; that’s why they were linked to Plaxico Burress. The Eagles are definitely contenders right now and they’re no strangers to making big splashes and giving out 2nd chances. It’s not likely, but maybe they offer him a 2 year deal with not a whole lot guaranteed so they can cut him after a year if they feel like it.

As for Moss’ legacy, it’s simple. He ranked in the top 10 in every major receiving statistic. He is a top 10 receiver all time, but he could have been so much more. This guy had 69 catches for 1313 yards and 17 touchdowns as a ROOKIE. In 2007, he had 98 catches for 1493 yards and 23 touchdowns as a record setting receiver on a record setting Patriots team. In fact, he might have said it best when he said “if I can’t get to it, nobody can get to it.”

In fact, if you remove the 3 seasons he basically checked out (2004 in Minnesota before they traded him, 2006 in Oakland before they traded him, and all of last year), Moss caught 835 passes for 13165 yards and 128 touchdowns over 10 seasons, good for averages of 84 catches for 1317 yards and 13 touchdowns in those seasons. Say he gives it his all in those 3 seasons and puts up a conservative estimate of 90% of those averages in those seasons. Then say he plays 3 more seasons after age 34 at 75% of those averages.

That gives him 3 more seasons of 76 catches for 1185 yards and 12 touchdowns and another 3 more seasons of 63 catches for 988 yards and 10 touchdowns. Add it all together and he has career numbers of 1252 catches for 19684 yards and 194 touchdowns. He still would have been behind Rice, but that would have taken him to age 37. Rice played until he was 42. Really all Rice would have had over him would be longevity. If Moss gave all his at all times and played until he was 42. The only thing Rice has over him is hustle and longevity. Talent wise, they're on the same level.

A mere two weeks after trading New England a 3rd rounder for him, the Vikings have waived Randy Moss for conduct detrimental to the team. Let’s take a look at where he could wind up. Teams are listed by waiver claim order, which is reverse order of record (tiebreaker: strength of schedule).

Oakland

Why it makes sense: They have a history of adding high profile players down on their luck, normally without a great deal of success. They have several injuries to receivers and are counting on Darrius Heyward Bey as their top receiver right now. At 4-4, the Raiders have a serious chance to make the playoffs and could see Moss as the finishing piece.

Why it doesn’t make sense: After the way it played out between Moss and the Raiders before, why would either side agree to a reunion.

Washington

Why it makes sense: They need a receiver opposite Santana Moss. Mike Shanahan has dealt with difficult personalities before, as has Donovan McNabb. They love adding high profile players and they are currently in a state of transition after a loss to Detroit, bringing in 20 free agents for workouts today, including JaMarcus Russell, so they might be willing to try anything. They’re also in apparent win now mode, trading for Donovan McNabb and Jammal Brown in the offseason.

Why it doesn’t make sense: They enduring a lot of chaos right now, with the Albert Haynesworth situation that won’t go away and the situation that doesn’t even need to be there with the benching of Donovan McNabb late against Detroit for Rex Grossman. Moss might tip them over the edge.

St. Louis

Why it makes sense: Sam Bradford’s receivers are dropping like flies, with Donnie Avery and Mark Clayton out for the season and Danario Alexander out for a few weeks. Moss gives the rookie QB a true experienced deep threat that he might need if they are to win this division.

Why it doesn’t make sense:  There’s generally an opposition among NFL head coaches about pairing a rookie quarterback with a diva receiver. They didn’t sign Terrell Owens this offseason so Steve Spagnuolo might buy into that opposition.

Miami

Why it makes sense: They don’t want him going to New England and he is an upgrade over Davone Bess and Brian Hartline.

Why it doesn’t make sense: He might not be a big enough upgrade to be worth the trouble. Wide receiver isn’t particularly a desperate need in town.

Chicago

Why it makes sense: If they don’t make the playoffs this year, it seems pretty likely that Lovie Smith, Mike Martz, Mike Tice, and Jerry Angelo will all be fired so there’s urgency in town. Cutler needs a true deep threat to catch his erratic deep throws, otherwise they could easily miss the playoffs.

Why it doesn’t make sense: They have refused to add high profile receivers in the past, for whatever reason.

Kansas City

Why it makes sense: Moss has experience with Matt Cassel and the Chiefs desperately need an elite receiver, as Dwayne Bowe doesn’t have the athleticism or the consistent hands to be one. Scott Pioli, along with Bill Belicheck, was the one to take the chance on Moss coming over from Oakland in 2007.

Why it doesn’t make sense: There was tension between Moss and Cassel when Cassel was the starter in New England. He obviously didn’t like that Cassel didn’t have the arm strength to hit him deep and often jogged out his routes instead of going full speed.

NY Jets

Why it makes sense: Rex Ryan doesn’t mind personalities and they want to keep him away from New England.

Why it doesn’t make sense: They don’t need a receiver at all. Moss would be caught in a logjam fighting for playing time, which won’t make him very happy, which could cause more harm than good.

New England

Why it makes sense: Moss was cut from Minnesota for many reasons, but one of them had to be the fact that he bashed their coaching staff in a post-game press conference and had nothing but praise for BB and co in New England. He obviously misses playing in New England and appears willing to admit his mistake and rejoin the Patriot way. The Patriots don’t have anywhere near the caliber deep threat that Moss provides on the roster right now and they made need that to go all the way. Plus, it would be hilarious and the ultimate kick in the groin to Minnesota for Moss to end up back in New England, just two weeks after they traded him to Minnesota for a 3rd rounder.

Why it doesn’t make sense: Maybe they have permanently moved on from Moss, though I doubt it. BB is willing to except anyone who buys into the Patriot way. The Pats do have the last waiver claim though so everyone else will have to pass him up before they get their chance. They can get him cheaper than everyone else though as they can pass on him in waivers and just sign him to a minimum contract, forcing Minnesota to pay the rest of Moss’ contract. Now THAT would be the ultimate kick to the groin for Minnesota. 

Time for rant mode. The Patriots just lost 20-17 to the Denver Broncos in overtime. The Broncos won the coin toss, and the ball down to field goal territory and kicked a nice field goal. Impressive. I’m not denying that. One problem. Then the game was over. WHAT?! Obviously, I was not actually confused, I know the NFL overtime rule (unlike Donovan McNabb), but I was pissed. The Patriots didn’t even get a shot to win that game. Our offense didn’t touch the ball in overtime because we lost the coin toss. The coin toss!!! How can u lose a game in OT if u didn't get the ball because you lost a coin toss. The NFL is respected as a manly man’s league with the toughest of the tough, yet our overtime games are being decided by a coin and a kicker. Is this what the NFL is reduced to, a coin and a foot. Football is a game of inches, but the NFL overtime is a game of luck. Not completely luck, but more often than not a team that wins a coin toss will go down field and kick a field goal, sometimes running out the downs after getting in field goal range and kicking the field goal rather than even trying for a touchdown, and the team that lost that coin toss won’t even be allowed to put their offense on the field. My proposal is to do what most other leagues do, including the NFL’s rivals, the MLB, and the NBA. Put a specific amount of time and at the end of that specific amount of time, whoever has more points wins. If it is still tied repeat. The MLB does it with extra innings, the NBA with their 5 minute overtime periods. The NFL needs to do that too, allowing at least 7 minutes of overtime guaranteed, because with 5, there isn’t much difference between that and the current rule. I would prefer 10 minutes, but I could live with 7.

I woke up today to the news that my favorite member of the Pats’ defense, Richard Seymour, was now a member of the Oakland Raiders. In a surprise deal, Bill Belicheck agreed to send well rounded defensive lineman Richard Seymour to the Raiders for a 2011 first round pick. This is the 2nd deal between Bill Belicheck and the Raiders’ senile owner Al Davis this offseason, the first coming when Davis sent aged defensive end Derrick Burgess to the Pats for 2 mid round picks. Seymour is in his contract year, as is Pro-Bowl nose tackle Vince Wilfork. Odds were that the Pats would not be able to retain both of their superstar defensive linemen, so they made the decision early and got what, assuming the Raiders don’t turn it around any time soon, should be a top 10 pick in 2011. However, this really hurts the Pats this year. I believed that it would be Wilfork they would get rid of because they drafted a nose tackle in Ron Brace in the 2009 draft. They do not have a successor for Seymour at 3-4 end, which hurts, unless…

            …The rumors about the Pats switching back to a 4-3 are true. If they played 4-3, 3-4 defensive end Ty Warren could move inside and play under tackle next to Wilfork, with Adalius Thomas and Derrick Burgess moving up to play 4-3 defensive end. That would fix their problems on the line, and eliminate their weakness at 4-3 middle linebacker, which was created by the sudden retirement of Tedy Bruski. Mayo could remain at middle linebacker and the only places they would be weak at would be the outside linebacker position, which is one of the least important positions on a defense. They would still have a fairly solid defense and they would not have to worry about losing Seymour for nothing. This gives them financial security to resign Wilfork and give Tom Brady an extension this offseason. And they get what’s likely a future top 10 pick, which, if history is any indication, Bill Belicheck will try to turn into 5 2nd round picks, succeed in doing so, and then about 3 of those 5 players will become future stars in the NFL. Or he could just keep it and take a young franchise cornerstone.

            As for the Raiders, I just don’t get this. They get an aged veteran, however good, who they have little shot at resigning this offseason. And they give up which could have been a future cornerstone…I mean, future track star wide receiver that can’t catch, in return. The Raiders are at a point where they should want good young players that they can have under contract for a longtime to build for the future. Seymour is the opposite of that. I don’t get it…of course you could say the same thing about half of what the Raiders do. How’s Darrius Heyward Bey working out? How ‘bout that Russell guy? Yeah, that’s what I thought.

            Bottom line, it hurts to see Seymour go and have to endure a losing season in Oakland, but I trust Bill Belicheck’s trading ability and I have even more confidence in the move seeing as its Al Davis on the other end.