The Football Fan Spot

1. Keep Terry Francona

Well I guess it’s too late for this. Francona met with Red Sox executives Friday morning and an official announcement has confirmed what most in the know have assumed for the 24 hours prior, Terry Francona is no longer the manager of the Boston Red Sox. It’s being spun as mutual, but that’s bullshit. One of two things happened. Francona was fired (or more politely, he just didn’t have his option picked up for the next 2 years) and management is saying it’s mutual and Francona is being polite and not saying it wasn’t. Or Francona was fired and both sides agreed to call it mutual just because it sounds better. This was no more mutual than any “mutual” breakup of a couple.

I completely disagree with their decision to let him go. They’re just making the scapegoat. He’s won 2 World Series in 8 years. They hadn’t won for 86 years when he got there. I don’t always agree with everything he does. I happen to think he overmanages and overthinks his lineup, but I can live with that. The players love him. He completely changed the locker room culture of this team. There isn’t a better option than him out there.

It’s not Tito’s fault the team was built such that it was so top heavy that it couldn’t handle injuries or struggles to key guys. Tito didn’t give John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka big contracts only to have them be completely useless (for different reasons), down the stretch. Tito didn’t sign Carl Crawford, who went on to have a lower on base percentage this year than Adam Dunn (look it up).

I’m not saying fire Theo Epstein, but I don’t think it should have been an either/or type thing. We won 90 games this year. If we tweaked a few things in the offseason, replaced JD Drew’s, Mike Cameron’s, and Marco Scutaro’s combined 28 million in expiring salary with depth, we’re a lot better of a team.

Now, best case scenario we hire in house and promote bench coach DeMarlo Hale. Hale is an extension of Francona and was interviewed by the Blue Jays for their managerial job last offseason (they eventually went with former Red Sox pitching coach John Farrell). However, rumor seems to be that Hale got let go as well Friday, so that seems unlikely.

Other popularly rumored options are Phillies’ bench coach Pete Mackanin, former Mets’ manager and current ESPN analyst Bobby Valentin, former Red Sox scapegoat Bill Buckner (just kidding), Tampa Bay’s bench coach Dave Martinez, and even (though I find this very hard to believe), former Yankees and Dodgers skipper Joe Torre. Personally, if it has to be an outside hire, my favorite is not on that list.

As weird as this sounds, my choice of outside hire would be former A’s and Brewers skipper Ken Macha. I’ve always liked him. He managed the A’s when they were a perennial playoff team and was fired after coming up short of the World Series in 2006, a move I didn’t agree with. They haven’t made the playoffs since. Macha spent 2009 and 2010 in Milwaukee with limited success, but I think he’s still a good manager. He’s a former minor league manager of the Pawtucket Red Sox so he has some experience within the organization. But if it were up to me, Tito would still be the skipper. Let’s move on to fixing to the roster.

2. Resign David Ortiz

Ortiz’ OPS in 2011 was .952. Though only that’s the 6th highest total of his career, it fits in pretty well with the range of OPS he had in his glory days (2003-2007). In that stretch his OPS was between .961 and 1.066 every season. .952 is not too far removed from that and that number was even higher before a back injury slowed him a bit down the stretch. That number was 2nd on our team behind Gonzalez and his 29 homeruns were 2nd behind Jacoby Ellsbury on the team. He can’t run and he can’t field, but there’s no question he’s one of our best hitters. Plus, he just wouldn’t look right in another uniform.

If Francona has to go, we need to keep at least this part of our team stable. He’s 36 in November, but a 2 year deal with a team option for a 3rd year at about 10 million per year is a very good value for him and that seems to be what people are predicting he’ll want from the team. He’d definitely take a hometown discount. He wants to return. We should want him back.

3. Don’t resign Papelbon

If you had asked me two weeks ago, I would have said, we have to bring back Papelbon. In fact, I had this very same discussion with a friend at a Red Sox game a few weeks ago (Tuesday the 20th’s game against Baltimore). The following is basically a summary of my argument.

I am a huge fan of Moneyball and a big part of Moneyball is that the closer position is overrated and overpaid. In fact, Billy Beane used to have a different closer every year and trade him at the end of the year for a prospect and he’d almost always win the deal.

However, we aren’t the Oakland A’s. We have money. If there’s one thing that Billy Beane isn’t very good at it’s getting people to come to the ballpark. A large reason behind that is the fact that the A’s trade their stars all the time. They always sell high, which is smart for a stock trader, but as a general manager of a baseball team, it leaves the fans with no one to latch onto.

Quick, think of the Oakland A’s right now. Who is the first player who comes to mind? Chances are, a third of all people won’t be able to think of any, another third will think of someone who isn’t even on the team anymore, and the final third would all think of a different player. I’m originally from the Bay Area. A’s commercials are pathetic. They had to put Mark Ellis as the lead in a commercial once and now he’s not even there.

In baseball terms Papelbon might not be worth the 12 or so million dollars per year he wants, but the front office is working with a payroll upwards of 160 million. You find somewhere in that payroll for Papelbon. Nothing compares to that feeling when you’re in the ballpark and “Shipping up to Boston” comes on after the bottom of the 8th with a lead and you know the game is over because Papelbon doesn’t blow saves (to this point he had only blown one all season). Sure, we might be able to get someone who does his job almost as well for significantly less money, but why do that if we don’t need to? It’s more fun with Papelbon.

Papelbon blew a save that day. I literally made that argument after the bottom of the 8th when “Shipping up to Boston” came on. I jinxed us. We lost 7-5. About a week later, Papelbon would blow his 3rd save of the year, leading 4-3 with 2 outs and 2 strikes, in a game that would end our season.

During every Red Sox game I’ve ever seen on television or in person where Papelbon comes into the game with a lead, I do the same thing. I count strikes and outs. Pointer finger on my left hand is 1 strike, pointer and pinky on my left hand is 2 strikes, pointer on my right is one out, pointer and pinky my right hand is 2 outs and with 2 outs and 2 strikes, I bring both hands together, touch the fingers, and wait for strike 3, two thumbs up (I’m weird). During game 162 of this season, the thumbs didn’t come up. Neither of them. I sat dumbfounded staring at my TV with my pinkies and pointers touching for about 20 minutes (not even making this up), trying to figure out what happened (I then proceeded to attempt to rip my head off. It didn’t work).

The point is, closers are always replaceable. I looked at our payroll for next year (more on this later) and at the end of it, the difference between signing Papelbon for 12 million and signing someone like Jose Valverde or Ryan Madson for 7 million is roughly the amount we’d need to pay a back end of the rotation guy, which we desperately need. Because of big, overpaid contracts like Carl Crawford’s and John Lackey’s, we don’t have a ton of money to play with this offseason. We have some, but we also have our fair share of needs. I don’t see how Papelbon fits and he’s no longer an absolutely necessity.

3. Get rid of John Lackey

Speaking of big, overpaid contracts, meet John Lackey, the worst contract in the league (owed about 48 million dollars over the next 3 years). After a disappointing first year with the Red Sox in 2010, a 4.40 ERA, his highest since 2004, everyone thought Lackey would bounce back this year. He did the complete opposite of that. His ERA rose another 2 points to 6.41. How he somehow went 12-12, I don’t know.

On top of this, his body language is terrible; he frequently yells at his fielders, complains about cheap runs, and in his final start of the season he complained about being pulled in the 7th with the tying run on in arguably the biggest game of the season up to that point. You only get left in the game in that situation if you’re the ace. Last I checked, you can’t be an ace if your ERA is in the mid 6s. And from what I’ve heard, his teammates don’t even like him. I’m not completely blaming this guy for their late season collapse, but having a cancer like that can’t help.

Speaking of cancer, I had sympathy for Lackey at the start of the season. His wife was going through breast cancer and he seemed genuinely distraught about it. That’s an acceptable excuse for pitching like crap. He had the sympathy vote. However, he divorced his wife in August and then blew up when the media found out a month later. At the very least, that kills his sympathy vote. At the most, he’s a complete dick who files for divorce from a cancer patient. (Just a side note, Lackey’s wife is WAY better looking than he is. Lackey is probably one of the 5 ugliest men on earth, along with Coach K and Tony Dungy).

I understand Lackey will be extremely hard to move, but we have to do everything we can to get rid of him. He’s a negative value to this team. We have two options and either one of them is fine with me. We trade him somewhere for a no name prospect and pay more than half of his remaining contract just so the other team will even consider taking him on. Or we trade him somewhere for an equally or near equally bad contract. If we were a small market team, the former would be the right move, but we’re not. We can afford to take on another bad contract in return as long as it means we get a player who might possibly be semi productive for us.

Peter Gammons threw out Barry Zito's and Carlos Zambrano’s names a few days ago. However, it appears the Giants are keeping Zito and want him to compete for their 5th starter role. Meanwhile, Zambrano has a lot less on his deal than Lackey does. Zambrano could be a free agent next offseason. Lackey has 3 more years to go.

So if not either of them, how about Jason Bay? The contracts match up, 3 years 47 million for Lackey, 3 years 51 million for Bay. The Mets need another starting pitcher and hope Lackey can bounce back. The Red Sox need a right field replacement for JD Drew and Jason Bay had a .921 OPS in 2009 for us before he signed in New York. He can handle playing in a big market and his stroke is perfect for Fenway.

Side note, after the 2009 season, I did an article similar to this, only it was in retrospect. I argued that we should have signed Bay instead of Lackey and used the 7 million dollars we used on Bay’s replacement Mike Cameron on a back end starter. I was right, but only by default because, as far as I know, Bay isn’t a dick. He’s just unproductive. But I definitely would have preferred giving Bay 85 million over 5 years than giving Lackey than same amount. Actually, here’s a list of things I would have rather done with that 85 million dollars than give it to John Lackey (in order).

4. Give it to Carlos Zambrano

3. Give it to Barry Zito

2. Give it to Jason Bay

1. Light it on fire

Anyway, this deal makes sense for both teams. Neither team has anything to lose and both take a chance on upside that these guys find their old form. We need a right fielder. He doesn’t have to be dependable because we have Josh Reddick just in case, but if Bay can revive his career anywhere, I think it’s in Fenway. However, this move leaves us very thin in the starting rotation. Say what you want about Lackey, he was 3rd on the team in starts (and you wonder why we missed the playoffs). If he’s gone, Beckett and Lester are the only two guys we can count on to be in our rotation for next year. Let’s try to fix that.

4. Sign Paul Maholm and Jon Garland

You’re probably wondering, why Maholm and Garland? Why not try to make a big splash for CC or Carpenter or Buehrle? Two reasons, one we don’t have the money. Adrian Gonzalez’s extension kicks in this year, as does Clay Buchholz’ significantly smaller extension. We also have to deal with Jacoby’s arbitration case (more on that later), which could pay him about 7 million dollars next year based on what Hunter Pence got with similar stats last year and that’s assuming Ellsbury doesn’t win MVP.

Two, and I want to stress this, I want us to copy what the Yankees did last offseason. Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, Russell Martin, Eric Chavez, and Andruw Jones were all steals. They bought low on a bunch of guys and some didn’t pan out, but some did. We need to do something similar. This applies more to Garland (coming off shoulder surgery) than it does to Maholm. Garland could sign for an incentive laden one year deal.

Before getting hurt this year, Garland threw 190+ innings in 9 straight seasons from 2002-2010. His ERA never went above 4.90 in a single season in that span. If he can bounce back from the only major injury he’s ever had in his major league career, he’s exactly what we didn’t have last year, a consistent starter after Lester and Beckett. Besides, Garland is perfect for Fenway. He’s a groundball pitcher (16th in the league with a 1.12 groundball to flyball ratio in his last full season 2010). Fenway is a small ballpark. Pitchers who get the ball airborne are in trouble. We can get this guy for 3 million because he’s being undervalued, just like Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon were last offseason.

Moving on to Maholm, it would take a medium sized contract to sign him. He’s owed 9.5 million dollars by the Pirates next year, should they pick up his option, but sources say they won’t. We could get him for about 3 years 24 million at the most. Epstein has been terrible with big contracts (Matt Clement, Julio Lugo, JD Drew, Dice-K, Mike Cameron, John Lackey, Carl Crawford). I don’t think he’s ever hit on one and I think he knows it. He even said he’s going to be rethinking how the team approaches free agency this offseason. Signing someone like Maholm to be a medium sized contract is a necessary shift from the approach of old.

More background on Maholm, since a lot of people don’t know who he is coming from Pittsburgh. He’s pitched in 160 innings or more in every full season in the majors since 2006. He’s still only 29. He’s coming off a career high 3.66 ERA season. For the record, John Lackey had only three seasons with an ERA lower than 3.66 when we gave him 85 million over 5 in 2009. 3. Out of 9 full seasons. Maholm is consistent. He’s still relatively young and coming off a career high. He’s underrated. And he’s a groundball pitcher (20th in 2010 with a 1.08 groundball to flyball ratio). He’s perfect to be our 4th starter.

So we have Beckett and Lester as our top 2. Buchholz was activated for the season finale, but didn’t pitch because, you know, we thought we were going to win. He should be good to go in 2012 as our #3. Maholm is a consistent #4 and Garland should be able to bounce back and be a dependable #5. I’m a lot more confident with those #4 and #5 starters than I was with Lackey and Daisuke coming into 2010.

Maybe we sign a veteran like Livan Hernandez or someone to a minor league deal too. We have guys like Michael Bowden, Felix Doubront, and Kyle Weiland in the minors as well in case we need a spot start. And then of course we have Wakefield (more on him later) and Aceves out of the bullpen who can start if need be.

5. Resign Jason Varitek and Tim Wakefield

These guys will keep getting one year deals no questions asked until they decide to hang it up. There’s not even a question here. Both signed for 2 million last offseason. That sounds reasonable for this season as well, provided neither retire.

6. Don’t extend Jacoby Ellsbury

I love Ellsbury. He’s coming off an amazing season where he almost carried us into the postseason. He had an OPS of .928, stole 39 bases, had 32 homeruns, played spotless defense in center field, and most importantly, always came up clutch when no one else did. He might be the MVP of the league. However, he’s got two more years of arbitration. He had almost as many DL stints in 2010 as he had extra base hits.

Let’s make him put up one more good year before we give him a giant contract. His arbitration will probably get him around 7 or 8 million this offseason. That’s a lot better than giving him 16-18 million per year over 5 years and then finding out he’s a one year wonder as he and Crawford count their money in the outfield until 2017. Even if it means we have to give him Crawford type money next offseason. With Daisuke’s and Bobby Jenks’ deals coming off the books after next season, we can afford to wait and pay him more next offseason.

7. Sign Javier Lopez

We have Wakefield and Aceves as our long guys, either Madson or Valverde as our closer, Bard as the primary set up guy, Franklin Morales back after arbitration, Bobby Jenks unfortunately back with one more year on his deal, we need one more guy for that pen and it needs to be a lefty since Morales is the only lefty setup guy in that situation. This unfortunately means there’s not going to be room for Matt Albers, an arbitration case, to be brought back, unless he’ll agree to a minor league deal. Albers was a surprisingly good reliever for us this year, but he sucked down the stretch. Instead, we bring back a familiar face and a 2 time World Series Champion, Javier Lopez (2007 with Boston, 2010 with San Francisco).

He’s the best lefty on the market, and I feel like he’ll be undervalued once again. Lopez has ERAs of 2.34 and 2.72 in the last two years and had ERAs of 2.70, 3.10, 2.43 in 3 years with Boston from 2006-2008 before a fluke down year in 2009 that ended his time with the team. He’s good and we need a lefty specialist and we know he can pitch in Boston. Sign him.

8. Bring back Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Jed Lowrie, Alfredo Aceves, Daniel Bard, and Franklin Morales

All 5 are arbitration eligible and all 5 can be brought back on cheap one year deals. This roster is rounding into form. As far as I see it, there are 2 spots left on the 25 man roster. One of them will not be occupied by one of our midseason trade acquisitions, who is also arbitration eligible, or another arbitration eligible outfielder.

9. Sign Willie Harris over Mike Aviles and Darnell McDonald

Mike Aviles hit well down the stretch and I’d love if he could come back on a minor league deal for depth purposes, but we already have a utility man in Jed Lowrie. Aviles was brought in to be an outfielder who hits lefties. However, he doesn’t have the speed that Harris has and Harris can provide the same ability as an outfielder who hits lefties that Aviles and another Francona favorite Darnell McDonald has.

Harris has an on base percentage against lefties of .407 since 2008. Between him and Bay, we’d have two outfielders who could hit lefties, weaknesses of both Josh Reddick and Carl Crawford, and Harris can be a pinch runner late in games. Watching Aviles and Lars Anderson (a first baseman) pinch run consistently in September was just sad. We need a Dave Roberts type. I’d like Aviles and McDonald to stay with the team on the 40 man roster on a minor league deal, but that’s not necessarily a given. One final thing.

10. Let Scutaro go

Scutaro has a 6 million dollar team option for 2012. Scutaro is a nice player who hit well down the stretch (one of the few), but he’s not worth that for next year. We have Jed Lowrie who can play shortstop from time to time. We also have a prospect in Jose Iglesias who should be our starting shortstop next year.

The Red Sox have had a revolving door at shortstop since Nomar was traded in 2004 (Orlando Cabrera, Edgar Renteria, Alex Gonzalez, Julio Lugo, Alex Gonzalez again, Marco Scutaro and I’m sure I’m missing some). Iglesias has the upside to end that and we need that. He’s not the best hitter, but the report on him says he’s a future gold glover at the position and can be a top fielder shortstop from the word go should he start in 2012.

He’s cheaper than Scutaro. He has more upside than Scutaro. He’s a better fielder than Scutaro now. He’s not as good a hitter as Scutaro, but we have other guys in the lineup to pick up the slack. As long as he hits .250ish, we should be fine given his glove at short. Worst case, Jed Lowrie has to play shortstop.

Let’s look at the roster

C Jason Varitek- 2 million

C Jarrod Saltalamacchia- 2 million (estimation)

1B Adrian Gonzalez- 21 million

2B Dustin Pedroia- 8 million

SS Jose Iglesias- 2.06 million

SS Jed Lowrie- 1 million (estimation)

3B Kevin Youkilis- 12 million

LF Carl Crawford- 19.5 million

CF Jacoby Ellsbury- 7 million (estimation)

CF Willie Harris- 1 million

RF Jason Bay- 17 million

RF Josh Reddick- .5 million (estimation)

DH David Ortiz- 10 million

SP Josh Beckett- 15.75 million

SP Jon Lester- 7.625 million

SP Clay Buchholz- 3.5 million

SP Paul Maholm- 8 million (estimation)

SP Jon Garland- 3 million (estimation)

RP Tim Wakefield- 2 million

RP Alfredo Aceves- 1.5 million (estimation)

RP Bobby Jenks- 6 million

RP Javier Lopez- 3 million (estimation)

RP Franklin Morales- 1 million (estimation)

RP Daniel Bard- 1 million (estimation)

RP Ryan Madson- 7 million (estimation)

Total payroll: $162,335,000

That’s actually lower than this year so if my estimations were on the low side anywhere, this roster still makes sense. How about some thoughts from Red Sox nation?

All stats as of August 25th 2011

The Boston Red Sox came into the 2011 season with high hopes as the popular pick to win the World Series. They won 89 games and scored 818 runs, 2nd to the Yankees, in 2010 despite having Jacoby Ellsbury miss 144 games, Dustin Pedroia miss 87 games, and Kevin Youkilis miss 60. They added Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, two of the top offensive players in the league, in the offseason and many were projecting bounce back seasons from either Josh Beckett and/or John Lackey to compliment their two young breakout aces Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester.

4 games into the season and the 2011 Red Sox already would have had to make history to win the World Series. They lost their first 4 games, something no team had ever done and gone on to win the World Series. It didn’t get much better from there. They won a mere 2 of their first 12 games and didn’t get to .500 until May 15th when they were 20-20. Incidentally, that win that got them to .500 was a 7-5 win over the New York Yankees to complete a sweep of the Bombers in the Bronx. That sparked their season. Since May 13th, the Red Sox have gone 63-30 a ridiculous .677 winning percentage over 93 games.

Now they sit at 80-50, the 2nd best record in the majors behind Philadelphia, and the best record in the American League. They have a 1 game lead on the division over the Yankees, a team they have a 10-2 record against. They’ve secured a winning record over the Yanks for the first time since 2004 and there are still 6 games to go this season in that rivalry. Should the Red Sox slip out of first place, they’d still have a comfortable lead over the Angels in the Wild Card. The Angels currently trail the Yankees by 8 games. It appears very possible that this team could do something no one has ever done, win the World Series after an 0-4 start. Let’s take a look at how.

The strength of the Boston Red Sox is their offense. They’ve already scored 700 runs in 130 games, good for an average of 5.4 runs per game and good for 2nd most runs in the major leagues, 6 behind the New York Yankees. They are on pace to score 872 runs this season. Their lineup is paced by 3 legitimate MVP candidates atop the order in Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, and Adrian Gonzalez as well as a 1-5 that would make sabermetricians shit their pants.

The top 5 of Ellsbury, Pedroia, Gonzo, Kevin Youkilis, and David Ortiz combines for an average of .309, an on base percentage of .385, a slugging percentage of .519, and an OPS of .904. If their 1-5 hitters were one guy, he would rank 11th in the majors in OPS ahead of Albert Pujols at .898. Essentially, we have 5 Albert Pujols atop our lineup and 2 of them (Ellsbury and Pedroia) can steal bases.

Notice nowhere in that top 5 is Carl Crawford, their 142 million dollar offseason signing. Crawford has slumped mightily this season and by mightily I mean mightily. He slumped way longer than anyone else on the team. He wasn’t producing even when this team was winning. His slump was so long that some started to wonder if it was more than just a slump, like maybe he’s just not that good. However, in the month of August, he has 3 homeruns, 10 RBIs, 11 runs scored, 5 stolen bases and a slash line of .294/.326/.494. That’s about in line with his career numbers. If he can keep that up out of the 6 hole with the top 5 doing what they’re doing, the Red Sox are going to be very, very tough to stop offensively.

Rounding out their lineup 7-8-9, the hitters aren’t as impressive. However, they do have a good platoon at catcher in the bottom of their lineup. Catcher was a weakness coming into the season. Jason Varitek couldn’t hit. Jarrod Saltalamacchia didn’t have the support of the pitching staff. However, the two of them have morphed into a very impressive duo behind the plate with Varitek catching two pitchers (normally Beckett and whichever pitcher is starting on a day the Red Sox face a lefty), and Salty catching the other 3.

Both have embraced their roles, Varitek as the old gun, Saltalamacchia as the young kid with a lot to learn. Both have done a great job with the pitching staff, especially Varitek who has helped revitalize Josh Beckett’s career. The two combine to throw out 26% of stolen base attempts, good for 18th in the league. That might not look great, but remember Victor Martinez threw out roughly -5% of all runners in his time in Boston.

They even hit. The two combine for a slash line of .242/302/.450. That might not look great, but remember we’re living in the dead era of offensive catchers, especially with Buster Posey hurt and Joe Mauer struggling. Saltytek’s OPS of .752 would rank 7th in the majors if they were one player, right in between Russell Martin and AJ Pierzynski.

That platoon is the most successful platoon on Boston’s roster, with the other platoon being in right field. Rookie Josh Reddick starts against righties but Mike Aviles and Darnell McDonald split time in right against lefties. Both Aviles and McDonald also will play left and/or center from time to time against lefties as both Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford are left handed. Reddick looked like a gift from God when he was called up following JD Drew’s injury, but the rookie now looks more like a rookie, batting .236 since the All-Star break and .212 in the month of August.

Aviles, meanwhile, hits lefties at a .304 clip and can play anywhere on the field except pitcher and catcher, but he’s limited by a .205 batting average versus righties. Darnell McDonald is still on the roster despite a .198 batting average. His “specialty” is lefties, against whom he hits a whopping .223. Their struggles in right field since the break have some even excited for the pending return of JD Drew, something I never thought possible.

Rounding out the order is Marco Scutaro. Scutaro has been a butcher in the field this year, but his OPS of .713 would rank 7th in the American League if he had enough at bats to qualify. He sometimes gets the day off for Jed Lowrie, who can also play anywhere. Lowrie started the season off hot with an OPS of .962 for the first month of the season, but he spent a lot of time on the DL and really cooled off. His OPS now sits at .701.

Offensively, this team is set. They have the best top 5 in baseball, as well as legitimate MVP candidates in their top 3. #6 Carl Crawford is heating up and they get decent play from the bottom of their order, which changes with regularity. However, the starting rotation is the worry point for the team. Josh Beckett and Jon Lester have pitched extremely well, but John Lackey didn’t have the bounce back year he was supposed to, in fact, he got much, much worse, while Clay Buchholz has been out since mid-June with a back injury. Dice-K got hurt so long ago that I just momentarily forgot he existed.

Erik Bedard was our deadline acquisition from Seattle. He was supposed to become our #3 starter after news broke that Buchholz could be done for the season, but he’s had 1 quality start in 4 tries with an ERA of 4.09 and a win-loss record of 0-2. Tim Wakefield is always nice to have around, but we’ve seen way too much of him for Red Sox fans to be comfortable with our starting rotation situation. Andrew Miller has a nice 6-1 record, but only recently got to the point where he had more strikeouts than walks.

Beckett is set as our #1. Had he pitched as many innings as Verlander, Sabathia, and Weaver (32+ fewer than each of those 3), we’d be talking about him as a potential Cy Young candidate along with that trio. His ERA of 2.43 and WHIP of 0.97, along with an 11-5 record, certainly rival Verlander, Sabathia, and Weaver and I think he’s still the 4th best pitcher in the AL this year. If he’s your ace, you’re in good shape. I trust him to go toe to toe with Sabathia and Verlander in the postseason and maybe Weaver if the Angels make it that far. He’s got a great track record in the postseason to boot.

Detroit, New York, and the Angels might have the better aces, but we’ve owned CC (0-4 7.20 in 4 starts this season) and we have a better #2 than any of those 3 with the exception of the Angels, who might not make the playoffs. If Texas wins the West, we have the AL’s best #2 in the postseason. Jon Lester is 13-6 with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP.

Meanwhile, who is the #2 in New York has been a popular question since the season began and right now there are only two answers, AJ Burnett, but not the kind of #2 your thinking of, and Bartolo Colon…probably, assuming the stem cell therapy the 38-year-old Colon had on his elbow in the offseason continues to work its magic. In Detroit, I don’t even think they have anything close to an answer at #2. The starter with the 2nd lowest ERA on that team is Max Scherzer, who has an ERA of 4.21. The only way they win a series in the playoffs is either a miracle and/or Justin Verlander pitching 4 times in a 5 game series.

However, after the top 2, that’s where the questions begin for Boston. I tried talking myself into John Lackey and his freshly under 6 ERA as our #3 starter and this is what I came up with. Lackey was terrible to start the season, but he’s 6-1 with a 4.65 ERA since the break and if turn a blind eye to the 78 base runners in 50.1 innings he’s allowed since the break, that looks almost, sort of, maybe decent, right? He’s also proven in the postseason and for whatever reason the Red Sox offense always scores a kajillion runs when he’s on the mound. Despite his 5.98 ERA, he has a 12-9 record. That has to count for something right? Right? All in all, I’d be more comfortable if I was trying to talk myself into him as a #4. Buchholz might be back for the playoffs and in that case, he’d be our #3 and Lackey the likely #4.

Erik Bedard was the Red Sox big deadline acquisition. He could be our #3 if Buchholz can’t go, but I think it’s more likely that he becomes the #4 if Buchholz can’t go. Bedard, however, hasn’t been great since coming over from Seattle and he’s so injury prone that I think it might be best off if we put him into a glass case until October just in case. Wakefield is the other option, but I think he’s a real long shot with a 6-5 record with a 5.04 ERA. Andrew Miller, 39 strikeouts to 32 walks, is an even longer shot.

The bullpen, a major problem in 2010, is a major strength this season. Gone are the days when I would frequently send friends “I hate our bullpen” texts after it had blown up. After blowing a major league leading 8 saves in 2010, Papelbon has blown just 1 save this season in 30 tries this season. The bridge to Papelbon has also been very strong. Both Alfredo Aceves and Daniel Bard have been very close to sure things with 2.96 and 2.10 ERAs respectively. They also have 3 other guys you can go to war with in Dan Wheeler, Franklin Morales, and Matt Albers. They have ERAs of 3.89, 3.54, and 3.72 respectively.

To this point, I think the Red Sox are the favorites in the AL. They’re on a serious sustained groove right now going 63-30 in their last 93. They are 10-2 against the Yankees, 5-1 against Detroit, and 6-2 against the Angels. They may be 3-4 against the Rangers, but they are just coming off of taking 3 of 4 from them. They were swept earlier this season by the Rangers, but that was their first series of the season when they were a completely different team in terms of their level of play. I’d feel more comfortable if Buchholz were to come back by the playoffs, but they’re my pick out of the AL.

As for the World Series, I think the Red Sox would have to be considered underdogs to the Phillies. The Phillies are 83-45 right now. They have the league’s best pitching staff and have gotten better offensively over the course of the season with Chase Utley back and Hunter Pence coming in. They took 2 of 3 from the Red Sox earlier this season and will have home field advantage in the World Series. However, there’s a lot that can happen. The Phillies aren’t necessarily a lock to come out of the NL and I think the Red Sox match up very well with every team other than the Phillies. As a Red Sox fan, the only team right now I legitimately would fear facing is the Phillies.

1. Boston Red Sox

The Good: They won 89 games last year despite being raped by injuries. They add Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez to their lineup as upgrades over Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez.

The Bad: Who is the closer? Jonathan Papelbon led the league in blown saves last year, but he keeps the job into this season. How many saves will he have to blow to lose the job to either Bobby Jenks or Daniel Bard?

2. Philadelphia Phillies

The Good: A surprise move to sign Cliff Lee gives them 4 legitimate front line starters in the rotation with Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels to compliment their lineup, which was 7th in the league in runs scored last year.

The Bad: Brad Lidge at the end of the ‘pen is always questionable and they don’t have the Red Sox bullpen depth. Jayson Werth is gone. Can Dominic Brown and Ben Francisco replace him?

3. New York Yankees

The Good: Their #1 ranked lineup from 2010 is still intact and Rafael Soriano gives them a talented, high paid bridge to Mariano Rivera.

The Bad: The only starting pitcher who isn’t a question mark is CC Sabathia. Phil Hughes has never had a sub 4 ERA. AJ Burnett had an ERA in the 5s last year. Their #4 and #5 starters are still unknown.

4. San Francisco Giants

The Good: With the exception of replacing Juan Uribe with Miguel Tejada, their 2010 World Series winning team is almost completely intact. Pablo Sandoval’s weight loss as fans believing he can produce like he did in 2009.

The Bad: Last year’s win is widely regarded as a fluke and both the Red Sox and the Phillies have drastically improved this offseason. The last team to repeat as champions was the 2000 Yankees.

5. Chicago White Sox

The Good: Adam Dunn gives them what Manny Ramirez was supposed to give them, another bat to go with Paul Konerko in the middle of that lineup. A healthy Jake Peavy could help their rotation in a big way.

The Bad: Losing Bobby Jenks left their bullpen awfully thin. Paul Konerko is 35 and Adam Dunn has never played in the AL.

6. St. Louis Cardinals

The Good: Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Jake Westbrook, and Jaime Garcia might be the most talented pitching rotation they’ve had in the Dave Duncan era and Duncan’s done a lot more with a lot less before.

The Bad: Other than Pujols and Holliday, their lineup is pretty thin. They thought John Jay was good enough to replace Ryan Ludwick, who they sent to San Diego at the deadline in 2010. He wasn’t and now they’re relying on Lance Berkman. The Pujols contract situtation could be distracting.

7. Los Angeles Angels

The Good: With the exception of last year, this team always finds a way to win the division and I can’t imagine them losing it twice in a row. Vernon Wells might be expensive, but he gives them a much needed bat and a full season of Dan Haren helps their cause.

The Bad: Kendry Morales might not be ready for the start of the season and Scott Kazmir is a huge question mark in their starting rotation. What’s their fallback plan?

8. Cincinnati Reds

The Good: They won the division in surprise runaway fashion last season, leading the NL in runs and could take the next step this season.

The Bad: Young teams that could take the next step often don’t. It’s called a sophomore slump. Also, who is the stopper in their rotation?

9. Atlanta Braves

The Good: Jason Heyward has a full year under his belt and Dan Uggla gives them another power bat in the middle of their lineup. They can still pitch with the best of them

The Bad: Bobby Cox is gone and he was the best at making something out of nothing. Can this team continue their surprise 2010 run without him?

10. Los Angeles Dodgers

The Good: They stole Juan Uribe from the Giants and their young pitching staff should continue to improve. A full season of Ted Lilly as the #3 starter helps.

The Bad: Their offense might be relying too much on the health of Rafael Furcal and Andre Either, as well as a bounce back year from Matt Kemp.

11. Oakland Athletics

The Good: On paper they have the same formula as the 2010 Giants, great young pitching staff and a patchwork offense of overachievers, adding my favorite underrated player, Josh Willingham, to the mix, as well as David DeJesus and Hideki Matsui.

The Bad: Other than the 2010 Giants, when has that formula ever worked?

12. Minnesota Twins

The Good: Ron Gardenhire is still the best coach in the AL and perennially makes something out of nothing. Justin Morneau missed half of last season and they still won the division. Now he’s back.

The Bad: The White Sox are better and Carl Pavano seems to be only good in contract years. Is he still going to have an ace like season now that he’s gotten paid?

13. Milwaukee Brewers

The Good: Zach Grienke gives their starting rotation much needed life and he moves to an easier league to pitch in.

The Bad: Prince Fielder is a free agent after the season and Rickie Weeks is a potential one year wonder candidate.

14. Texas Rangers

The Good: This team made the World Series last year and they still have AL MVP Josh Hamilton.

The Bad: Cliff Lee’s gone. Vladimir Guerrero is gone. Michael Young has been chased to DH, where he might split time with Mike Napoli. Adrian Beltre is only good in contract years. They overacheived last year.

15. Tampa Bay Rays

The Good: They still have one of the league’s best young pitching staffs. They also have Evan Longoria and potential bounce back years from Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez.

The Bad: Carl Crawford is gone. Carlos Pena is gone. Rafael Soriano is gone. Joaquin Benoit is gone. The Yankees and Red Sox aren’t. They got the 2011 versions of Manny and Johnny Damon, not the 2004 versions.

16. Colorado Rockies

The Good: Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez are locked up longterm and this team always seems to make a run at the division late, even last year when they came up short. Oh, and of course, Ubaldo Jimenez is pretty decent.

The Bad: Jorge De La Rosa was overpaid. He’s not a #2 starter. Their #3-#5 starters are even more questionable. Todd Helton might be on his last legs.

17. Detroit Tigers

The Good: After finishing sub .500 last year, they broke open their paychecks to add Victor Martinez and Joaquin Benoit.

The Bad: Martinez is a DH who has never topped 25 homeruns and Benoit is a setup man who has only gone under an ERA of 3 twice in his career at age 33.

18. New York Mets

The Good: Maybe Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Johan Santana, Oliver Perez, and Jason Bay will all stay healthy and play up to their contracts.

The Bad: They probably won’t.

19. Houston Texans

The Good: They were one of the NL’s best teams after the trade deadline, with young talent flourishing after Berkman and Oswalt were traded.

The Bad: Playing well when you’re out of it is one thing. Playing well when you’re expected to do good things is something completely different, especially for young players. On paper, they look pretty bad.

20. Florida Marlins

The Good: They always seem to win the World Series just when you least expect it and this year, no one’s expecting it.

The Bad: There’s a reason no one’s expecting it. Dan Uggla is gone leaving their lineup thin after Hanley Ramirez and 2nd year outfielder Mike Stanton.

21. Chicago Cubs

The Good: After a 24-13 finish to last season, Mike Quade could be the manager that finally wins the World Series with the Cubs.

The Bad: The last 48 managers failed. Why wouldn’t Quade? Carlos Pena and Matt Garza help, but they’ll need Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Zambrano to play up to their paycheck to even have a shot at the division.

22. San Diego Padres

The Good: Their young pitching staff is still intact and they allowed the fewest runs in the league last year.

The Bad: Gonzo is Gonzo so as bizarre as them ranking 22nd in runs last year and still almost winning the division was, doing the same this year with Gonzo would be ten times more bizarre. The strength of their pitching staff was their bullpen and bullpens are notriously streaky from year to year.

23. Toronto Blue Jays

The Good: They had 48 more homeruns than any other team in the league last year.

The Bad: Does anyone really think Jose Bautista hits 54 homeruns again? His previous career high was 16 and he’s 30 years old. Vernon Wells’ contract may be gone, but so is Vernon Wells’ bat. Their pitching wasn’t very good last year and I don’t see it improving having lost Shawn Marcum.

24. Baltimore Orioles

The Good: Vladimir Guerrero represents their most high profiled signing in years!

The Bad: A 36 year old Vladimir Guerrero represents their most high profiled signing in years…

25. Washington Nationals

The Good: They opened the checkbooks to sign Jayson Werth. Bryce Harper could be up by the summer.

The Bad: They could have just resigned Josh Willingham and Adam Dunn for less than what they paid Werth and gotten more production. Stephen Strasburg isn’t expected back until 2012.

26. Arizona Diamondbacks

The Good: They didn’t trade Justin Upton. Daniel Hudson showed potential as a starting pitcher last year.

The Bad: They had a strong rotation with Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, and Edwin Jackson going into 2010. All 3 of those guys are gone and they’re left with a bunch of young guys, Hudson, Joe Saunders, and Ian Kennedy. Their lineup isn’t good enough to make up for that.

27. Cleveland Indians

The Good: Carlos Santana could be ready for the start of the season. Maybe Grady Sizemore will stay healthy.

The Bad: Even if Sizemore and Santana stay healthy, their lineup isn’t very good and their pitching staff certainly isn’t good enough to compensate, especially if Fausto Carmona becomes a mid-season trade.

28. Kansas City Royals

The Good: With the league’s top farm system, they might be really good in the future.

The Bad: It’s not the future yet.

29. Seattle Mariners

The Good: Felix Hernandez is the reigning Cy Young award winner.

The Bad: Their lineup had 74 fewer runs than any other team in the majors last year and they didn’t fix that.

30. Pittsburgh Pirates

The Good: Uh…

The Bad: They suck.

In the past week the Boston Red Sox have acquired Adrian Gonzalez (trade) and Carl Crawford (free agency). Earlier this offseason I did some number crunching and found that we could add Gonzo and Crawford without increasing our payroll significantly (provided we didn’t resign Mike Lowell, Adrian Beltre, and Victor Martinez). I posted a write up about that on here about a month ago, but even after posting it, I didn’t actually think it would happen.  And for a while it looked like it wouldn’t.

The Gonzalez deal appeared to have fallen apart at the eleventh hour because we were unable to work out an extension with Gonzalez and Theo Epstein said no deal, before trade talks rekindled and Gonzalez ended up in Beantown. After the Nationals signing of Jayson Werth for a whopping 7 years 126 million, there was a large speculation that Theo Epstein and the Red Sox ownership would not be willing to pay Crawford more than that, which likely meant he was going elsewhere. In fact, the only team that looked to have the amount of money available necessary to give Crawford more than Werth was a certain team from the Bronx. And it looked like our off-season would once again fall short to the Yankees, who seemed poised to add both Crawford and Cliff Lee, a mere two years after they added CC Sabathia, Mark Teixiera, and AJ Burnett, and once again it would be because of front office refused to splurge on free agents.

For all my years as a Red Sox fan, I had grown accustomed to watching the Yankees add all the big name players while we sat back and “waited for the market to come to us” which would eventually end in us overpaying secondary free agent targets. Julio Lugo. JD Drew. Curt Schilling (though that didn’t turn out too badly). John Lackey. Mike Cameron. Yes, we do have more titles than the Yankees in the past 10 years, something that franchise hasn’t been able to say since before World War I, but we never won a December in that period.

Yes, it’s more important to win in October than December, but I would have liked to have seen us win a December at least once, instead of watching the Yankees sign Alex Rodriguez, Jason Giambi, Mark Teixiera, CC Sabathia, the biggest name on the market every year, while we overpay for the leftovers in reaction to the Yankees moves. We were always reactors and it’s demoralizing to us fans.

Just as painful as that was watching the Yankees steal Johnny Damon right out from under our noses. Johnny Damon, the 2004 World Series hero, the Yankee killer, we wouldn’t even shell out the money for him. Our ownership has the money, but their refusal to spend it on big name free agents has always frustrated me. We haven’t added a huge name free agent since 2000 with Manny Ramirez.

This year, we’ve finally won a December with Crawford and Gonzo. I gave it about a 10% chance of happening when the offseason started and it didn’t look like we would get either right up until we did, but it happened. The Yankees will probably sign Cliff Lee, but they’re finally in our old position, the reactor position. The Yankees now want to sign Cliff Lee even more to keep up with us, giving him an extra year on their once 6 year 140 million dollar contract. Cliff Lee is significantly better than the scraps we were always left to overpay, but it still feels good not to be the ones left reacting to what the other did. We’re the team in control this year. It’s a sweet feeling knowing that we left the New York Yankees reacting to us.

Between Adrian Gonzalez’ projected extension (6 years 138 million is what I’m hearing) and the 7 year deal we gave Crawford, worth 142 million, we’ve spent 280 million dollars this offseason. I don’t even care that people are calling the Red Sox the baby Yankees, or saying that we are just like the Yankees now that we are spending money, that we’ve become everything we once hated. Those people are just jealous, in my opinion. How many of those people would be mad if their team added Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford just because they’re spending money like the Yankees? Those people all wish they were in our position.

For the record, I’m calling us the Yankees meets the A’s, or moneyball with money. We have money and we know how to use it wisely. Crawford probably won’t be worth his contract at the end of it, but what big name free agent ever is?  And our payroll won’t skyrocket as a result of this, believe it or not.

With Mike Lowell’s 12 million coming off the books after last season, as well as Adrian Beltre’s 9 million, and Victor Martinez’ s 8 million, we had room in the budget. The Sox are handling the situation with Adrian Gonzalez such that his extension won’t kick in until 2012, so he’d still be making 5.5 million dollars only next season, before making about 22-23 million per from 2012-2017.

After 2011, we have JD Drew’s 14 million coming off the books as well as Dice-K’s 10 million, Jonathan Papelbon’s 10 million, Mike Cameron’s 7 million, Marco Scutaro’s 5 million, and David Ortiz’ 12.5 million, so that 23 million dollar extension will be well within our budget and we’d still have room to bring back Papi at a reduced rate if he deserves it, or add a veteran DH, and add a good starter to replace the inconsistent Daisuke Matsuzaka in the rotation. We also have top

prospects like Ryan Kalish, Lars Anderson, and Jose Iglesias to fill voids.

This is our projected 2011 Lineup

LF Carl Crawford

2B Dustin Pedroia

1B Adrian Gonazlez

3B Kevin Youkilis

DH David Ortiz

RF JD Drew

SS Marco Scutaro

C Jarrod Saltalamacchia/Jason Varitek

CF Jacoby Ellsbury

We’ll also have Ryan Kalish on our bench to give Drew a rest, and to serve as a defensive replacement and pinch runner.

SP Jon Lester

SP Clay Buchholz

SP Josh Beckett

SP John Lackey

SP Daisuke Matsuzaka

SU Daniel Bard

CP Jonathan Papelbon

This is our projected 2012 Lineup

LF Carl Crawford

2B Dustin Pedroia

1B Adrian Gonzalez

3B Kevin Youkilis

DH David Ortiz/free agent DH/Lars Anderson

RF Ryan Kalish

SS Jose Iglesias

C Jarrod Saltamacchia

CF Jacoby Ellsbury

SP Jon Lester

SP Clay Buchholz

SP Josh Beckett

SP John Lackey

SP Free agent SP

SU Free agent SU

CP Daniel Bard

If we can add some cheap middle relief help for both years, that’s the league’s most complete team for 2011 and 2012, even if the Yankees add Cliff Lee (right now, I’m still really hoping that Lee goes to Texas or Washington). We scored 818 runs in 2010, 2nd to the Yankees. This was with Jacoby Ellsbury playing only 18 games, Dustin Pedroia playing only 75, and Kevin Youkilis playing only 102. Now we get those three back healthy and add Gonzo and Crawford.

Our pitching staff isn’t bad either if we can add some middle relief. I think we have one of the best rotations in baseball if that can stay healthy. And don’t underestimate how much a healthy Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford will help out defense and thus our pitching staff. This run prevention thing Theo Epstein has been preaching for the past few years might actually happen this year and it certainly will in 2012 when Ryan Kalish takes over for JD Drew in right. Fastest. Outfield. Ever.

We won 89 games in 2010 with so many injuries and now we add 2 of the top 25 players in the league. Even if the Yankees add Cliff Lee, we have to be the favorites right now to win it in October, and we definitely have finally won a December, leaving the Yankees reacting to us. And I couldn’t be happier about that. 

1. Extend Ortiz

Ortiz would be making 12.5 million next year with the option. At least from what I’m hearing, the Sox can resign him for slightly less next season should they give him an extension. It doesn’t have to be a long extension, 2 years, 3 years max for the soon to be 35 year old. I don’t think they can really afford to resign him for one year, in more ways than one. Ortiz has made it clear he doesn’t want to come back for one year and exercising his option ties up 12.5 million rather than 10 for next season and limits what they can do in free agency. Resigning him for 2 years 20 million saves them money in the short term, keeps him happy, keeps him in Boston, and only costs them 7.5 more in the long run.

2. Let Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez walk

Victor Martinez is going to want an extension of at least 10+ million per year. His bat makes it seem like he’s worth that, but he’s horrible behind the plate. He’s probably a 1st baseman long term and his stats .302/20/79/64/1 aren’t really all that impressive for a 1st baseman. Beltre has had his two best seasons in non-contract years. Don’t blame Seattle for his bad production from 2005-2009. He hit just as poorly on the road as he did at home in those seasons. Beltre isn’t an elite 3rd baseman and shouldn’t be paid like one.

3. Cut/trade Papelbon

Papelbon is arbitration eligible this offseason and, with his experience and being the first closer in major league history to save 30+ saves in each of his first 5 seasons, he’ll probably get 8 figures in arbitration. Blowing a major league worst 8 saves last year, with an ERA near 4, he’s not worth that. Plus, the Red Sox have a cheaper, younger option in Daniel Bard waiting in the wings. Trading him makes that possible 10 million someone else’s problem, which means the Red Sox might not find too many takers, in which case they can just non-tender him and let him go as a free agent.

4. Decline Bill Hall’s option

The Red Sox have a 9.25 million dollar team option for Bill Hall. Hall played decent in way more action than he should have played with major injuries to key position players this season. However, the Sox won’t need him to do much next year and he’s just flat out not worth 9.25 million. They can work out a smaller deal after declining the option or simply go in another direction and add a reserve utility man in free agency.

5. Trade for Adrian Gonzalez

The Padres have said that even after almost winning the NL West, they are looking to cut payroll, which pretty much, indirectly, means that Gonzalez is on the trading block this offseason. The Red Sox can package together a deal around talented young players like Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie, as well as a top prospect (not Casey Kelly), such as Jose Iglesias, Lars Anderson, or Josh Reddick, and a secondary prospect. That should be enough to trade for Gonzalez. If it isn’t, or he’s not on the block, the Brewers will almost certainly be trying to move Prince Fielder this offseason, so he’s their secondary option.

6. Extend Adrian Gonzalez

Trading for Gonzalez doesn’t do them any good if they don’t extend him. He’s a free agent after the season and for the price they paid for him, they better resign him. He won’t come cheap. He’ll probably be looking for Mark Teixeira money, 8 years 180 million. Further reason why they can’t resign Beltre or V-Mart.

7. Sign Carl Crawford

You’re probably wondering where they’re going to get all this money, first 8 years 180 to Gonzo and now the roughly 90 mil over 5 its projected Crawford will go for on the open market. That’s about 40 million a year. However, the Sox have Mike Lowell (12.5 million), Victor Martinez (7.7 million), Bill Hall (8.5 million), Jonathan Papelbon (9.4 million), Julio Lugo (9.25 million) and Adrian Beltre (9 million) coming off the books this offseason. That’s roughly 56 million, plus John Lackey makes 4 million less in the 2nd year of his deal (2011) than any of the other 4 years and Papi will be making 3 million less in 2011 than in 2010. 40 million is going to be there. The Sox front office has also said they are not opposed to adding payroll, which would be necessary, in moderation, to fill out the roster. The Sox also have JD Drew’s 14 million dollar deal coming off the books after next season.

8. Extend Clay Buchholz

This is something the Sox will have to do this offseason. Buchholz had a breakout year this year and will want an extension in the neighborhood of teammate Jon Lester, who was extended at a similar time (with similar numbers) in his career for 5 years 30 million.

9. Sign Scott Downs

The Red Sox needed bullpen help last year and moving stud set up man Daniel Bard to closer leaves them with a hole at set up man. Downs is a great lefty set up man and should be able to be signed for about 5 million a year on the open market, using up some more of their freed payroll.

10. Attempt to move Mike Cameron

More likely than not, they’ll be unable to do this without eating about half of his 7.25 million dollar salary for 2011, but the soon to be 38 year old Cameron shouldn’t be any more than a 4th outfielder for this team with Crawford coming in, making him very overpaid. If they can’t move him, that’s fine too, but if they can save 4+ million by moving him, it’s worth it.

11. Resign Jason Varitek

He’s the captain and without Martinez, they’ll need catcher depth behind Jarrod Saltamacchia. Rather than getting a veteran from outside, why not keep one of the few remaining members of their 2004 championship team (Ortiz, Varitek, Youkilis) as a backup. He’ll resign for probably 2-3 million, slightly less than what he was paid in 2010. He can still swing it, batting .232/7/16/18/0 in limited time before he got hurt and his presence in the locker room is invaluable.

12. Resign Hideki Okajima

He was horrible last year, but he was hurt. He’s up for arbitration this season, but the Sox can probably sign him for his 2010 salary (2.75) before arbitration.

13. Sign depth

Obviously depth is necessary, veteran backups like Miguel Cairo, Nick Punto, and Chad Tracy are all available for their bench. Whoever they sign, they shouldn’t cost more than 1 million per.

If they were to make these moves, let’s take a look at what their 2011 payroll would look like.

C Jarrod Saltamacchia 750K

C Jason Varitek 2.5 million

1B Adrian Gonzalez 22 million (after extension)

2B Dustin Pedroia 5.75 million

SS Marco Scutaro 5.5 million

3B Kevin Youkilis 12.25 million

LF Carl Crawford 18 million (estimated amount it will take to sign)

CF Ryan Kalish 400K

CF Mike Cameron 7.75 million

RF JD Drew 14 million

DH David Ortiz 10 million

2 veteran backups 2 million

SP Josh Beckett 17 million

SP John Lackey 15.95 million

SP Jon Lester 5.75 million

SP Clay Buchholz 1 million (based off 1st year salary of Jon Lester’s extension)

SP Daisuke Matsuzaka 10.3 million

RP Scott Downs 5 million

RP Tim Wakfield 1.5 million

RP Daniel Bard 417K

RP Hideki Okajima 2.75 million

RP Scott Atchison 440K

RP Felix Doubront 400K

RP Michael Bowden 400K

Other

Jose Iglesias 2.063 million (potentially gone in Adrian Gonzalez trade)

Junichi Tazawa 1.15 million

Bill Hall 500K (buyout)

Adrian Beltre 1 mil (buyout)

Total payroll: 166.52 million

That’s only about 6 million more than what their payroll was in 2010 and it can be about 3-4 million less if they can find a taker for Mike Cameron and replace him with a cheap replacement such as Daniel Nava. That’s completely doable. It could also be an additional 2 million cheaper if Iglesias is the prospect that goes to San Diego. Even if the front office doesn’t want to shell out the extra 6 million to build a true championship team (unlikely), there are 600,000 or so people in Boston. I’m sure they’d pay $10 each for Crawford and Gonzo. Let’s take a look at that lineup.

LF Carl Crawford

2B Dustin Pedroia

1B Adrian Gonzalez

3B Kevin Youkilis

DH David Ortiz

RF JD Drew

SS Marco Scutaro

C Jarrod Saltalamacchia

CF Ryan Kalish

CC Sabathia and David Price just shit their respective pants.

And just think, if we didn’t sign John Lackey and Mike Cameron, we could have signed Cliff Lee as well.

After losing 5-2 to the Baltimore Orioles last night, the Red Sox find themselves 7 games back of the Rays for the AL Wild Card. The Sox, who lost 2 of 3 to the Rays last weekend in St. Petersburg, stand at 74-58, 7 games back of the Rays, who stand at 81-51, a game back of the Yankees for best record in the majors. Even if the Sox were to play .700 ball the rest of the way (21-9) and the Rays were to play .500 ball (15-15), the Sox would still be a game back at season’s end. We’re looking at the Sox having to play better than .700 ball for the last month of the season and the Rays having to play .500 ball for the last month of the season in order for the Sox to make the playoffs.

I can’t see the Rays being just average for a month and, even as a Red Sox fan, I can’t see them going 22-8 or 23-7 this last month of the season, not with their roster as it currently is. Ever since Youk went down, this team has been struggling to score runs, no surprise since Youk was arguably their best offensive player. Pedroia’s not coming back. Ellsbury’s not coming back. The middle of their lineup is pretty solid with Victor Martinez, David Ortiz, and Adrian Beltre, but outside of that lineup, there’s simply too many players who are either journeymen or rookies that weren’t supposed to be part of the team this year. Guys like Ryan Kalish, Daniel Nava, Jed Lowrie, Bill Hall, Mike Lowell, and Darnell McDonald have played well, but none of them were supposed to play significant amounts of games this year, and none of them are Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Kevin Youkilis.

Their starting pitching is very strong. Clay Buchholz might be the best pitcher in the world. Jon Lester’s a very strong #2 starter that I can always count on to win big games. Dice-K, John Lackey, and Josh Beckett have their issues, but for 3-5 starters, you could do a whole lot worse. However, starting pitching alone isn’t going to win you 23 games in 30 days with the offense not hitting, the bullpen giving up leads, and the defense allowing unearned runs left and right.

It is sad to have to write this eulogy this early. I know this team would be about 10 games better with a decent bullpen, a competent 3rd base coach, and a reasonable amount of injuries. This team was playing so well, even with Ellsbury and Beckett out, in mid June, before Pedroia went down. Just before he was about to get back, Youkilis went down, and then once he came back, he got hurt again, after 2 days, and is now likely out for the year. Even with all the injuries, this team stayed in the race in the toughest division in baseball for 5 months, and still have a good enough record to be tied for the lead in the AL West with the Texas Rangers, if they were in that division. In the NL, they’d still be leading the Wild Card. This eulogy is not so much a result of a bad team, but bad luck and a bad situation, division wise. That’s what makes this so tough.

Next year will be better. The Rays are sure to lose either one or both of Carlos Pena and Carl Crawford, and possibly their stud closer Rafael Soriano as well. All of the Sox injured players will be back and hopefully the team will stay healthy. They discovered decent young players like Ryan Kalish and Daniel Nava this year, who will hopefully be part of their team next year in some way. As long as they don’t lose a big chunk of the team in free agency, guys like David Ortiz, Adrian Beltre, and Victor Martinez, they should be very competitive next year.

With the Sox out of the picture, here’s a look at how I see the MLB playoff picture playing out.

AL East: Tampa Bay

AL Central: Minnesota

AL West: Texas

AL Wild Card: NY Yankees

NL East: Atlanta

NL Central: Cincinnati

NL West: San Diego

NL Wild Card: Philadelphia

ALDS

Tampa Bay over Texas in 5

NY Yankees over Minnesota in 4

NLDS

Philadelphia over San Diego in 4

Atlanta over Cincinnati in 5

ALCS

Tampa Bay over NY Yankees in 7

NLCS

Atlanta over Philadelphia in 6

World Series

Tampa Bay over Atlanta in 5

The Red Sox fell to 4.5 games back of the Wild Card today with a 6-4 loss to the Oakland Athletics. I don’t often talk about baseball on here, but the Red Sox are my favorite baseball team and the only sports team I really follow religiously. I am also a fan of the Patriots and Celtics but because I feel I need to stay as unbiased as possible for this site and because I am disappointed with some of the actions the franchise made in the past few years (Spygate), I would definitely not call myself a huge Patriots fan. Because I am not a huge basketball fan, I would not call myself a huge Celtics fan either.

The Red Sox are my team. I don’t like it when they fall 4.5 games back of the Wild Card. I don’t like it when they lose to a .500 team (especially when I’m in attendance). 4.5 games back starts to be pushing the envelope a bit in terms of how far out they can be to give themselves a solid shot to make the playoffs once their injuries are cleared up. 4.5 games back is the farthest back they’ve been in over a month. 4.5 games back doesn’t please GM Theo Epstein either as reports have come out that he is planning to make significant additions (in addition to the players they’ll soon get back from injury) at the trade deadline. The names thrown out there, relievers like David Aardsma and Scott Downs, catchers like Chris Synder or Chris Iannetta.

I definitely wouldn’t mind adding another reliever. Their bullpen era is 4.51, 3rd worst in the AL. I would love to add Scott Downs. He’s a solid set up man and a lefty, which is even more important because Hideki Okajima has failed epically as their left handed set up man. I would rather have him than trading for a closer because closers normally cost more in terms of salary and prospects and they sometimes have issues adjusting to new roles like the 7th or the 8th (see Gagne, Eric). Downs has been pitching well in the 7th and 8th all year with a 2.52 ERA for Toronto. Aardsma I don’t want. It seems silly to trade for a closer with a 5.04 ERA, try to make him into a set up man or middle reliever, even though the last time he was a middle reliever for the Sox (a whole 2 years ago), he had an ERA of 5.55. The fact that his price tag in terms of prospects would be equal or higher to Downs’ is ridiculous.

Catcher I can sort of understand. Both Victor Martinez and Jason Varitek are hurt right now and while Martinez could be back in a few days, Varitek could be out a few more weeks, leaving them with a choice between Kevin Cash, Dusty Brown, and Gustavo Molina as their backup catcher for a significant period of time. V-Mart is horrible defensively so the Sox need a solid catcher to use as a defensive replacement late in games, as well as to catch every 5th or 6th day, and also to catch when Martinez moves to DH or 1st, on Ortiz’ or Youk’s off days. Plus if Martinez misses more time than expected or gets hurt again, they’d be in trouble.

Jayson Werth is the one guy I don’t want. I will list a bunch of reasons why.

Slumping- Werth is hitting .241 with 0 homeruns and 3 RBIs this month. In fact, since his hot start in April where he batted .325, he is batting a mere 64 for 238 (.269) and has 4 homeruns and 17 RBIs in June and July. Who wants a slumping hitter?

Ballpark bloats stats- Philadelphia is probably the best hitters park in the bigs. Jayson Werth can probably thank a lot of his recent success to his park. The last season he wasn’t a Phillie, he batted .234 with 7 homeruns and 43 RBIs. There’s a reason the Dodgers let him go. This year in road games, Werth is batting .264 with 3 homeruns and 18 RBIs. At home, he’s batting .302 with 10 homeruns and 32 RBIs. He might not find Fenway nearly as friendly as Citizens Bank.

New league- Werth has 94 career at bats in the AL, and none (other than interleague) since he was a Blue Jay in 2003. Regardless of which league you feel has the better pitchers, there’s no denying this, going to a new league is unfamiliar and unfamiliarity is always the pitcher’s advantage.

In a contract year- Pretty self explanatory, there’s a chance he’d only be a 2-3 month rental, either that or they overpay him after the season.

Don’t need him: When everyone is healthy, this is their outfield. They have Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Cameron, Jeremy Hermida, Darnell McDonald, Daniel Nava, JD Drew. Eric Patterson can also play the outfield. Patterson is as good as gone once they get either Dustin Pedroia or Jacoby Ellsbury back. McDonald is probably toast as well.

When I got the idea to write this rant, I also wanted to say this. Getting Werth would mean getting rid of Nava who actually is hitting better than Werth, albeit in less action, with a .286 average compared to Werth’s .280. Nava also has the higher on base percentage, though Werth leads in slugging and OPS. However, Nava is cheaper. Nava isn’t slumping. Nava knows the pitchers in the AL and Nava has proven himself in the Sox home park. Werth isn’t worth a top pitching prospect like Michael Bowden, no matter how many issues Bowden is having at this stage in his career.

However, the Sox just went right ahead and sent Nava down as I was writing this, to activate Jeremy Hermida. He was sent down over guys like Darnell McDonald and Eric Patterson. Let’s compared Nava to Hermida, McDonald, Patterson, and hell, I’ll even throw in Jayson Werth’s stats in there as well, for comparisons sake.

Hermida: (avg/obp/ops) .217/.268/.384

McDonald: .263/.322/.402

Patterson: .204/.257/.430

Werth: .280/.371/.500

Nava: .286/.381/.451

I hate to sound like I feel that I’m smarter than people with more baseball experience, but I can’t help but feel that I’m smarter than people with more baseball experience. One of the worst feelings as a fan is feeling more competent than your front office, even if it may not be entirely true. After all, I did criticize both the Lackey and Cameron signings, and suggested that the Sox sign Adrian Beltre back in December. 

AL East

New York Yankees

Boston Red Sox*

Tampa Bay Rays

Baltimore Orioles

Toronto Blue Jays

Even as a Red Sox fan, I cannot pick them to win this division. I’d love to be wrong here, but as an unbiased writer trying to pick what I feel is the most likely outcome, I have to go with the Steinbrenners on this one. Gone are Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui from last years squad, but, though they didn’t spend much money this offseason, except for some chump change on guys like Randy Winn, they’ve quietly gotten some big names into town, stealing Javier Vazquez and Curtis Granderson from the Braves and Tigers respectively. The Red Sox are still too talented to be overlooked though. I do not like what they did this offseason, overpaying the likes of Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron, but the addition of John Lackey, no matter how much they spent on him, can’t hurt their rotation. If Jon Lester and Josh Beckett continue to give the Sox what they have been in recent years, and Clay Buchholz continues to develop, and Dice-K is even a fraction of what he was in 2008, this is probably the best rotation in baseball. Their offense is nothing to be overlooked either, though they lack that fearful middle that Sox fans have been so used to. I think they are the favorites for the Wild Card right now. The Rays season is ultimately going to depend on their bullpen. Their bullpen was great in 2008 and bad in 2009 and, coincidentally, the team made the playoffs in 2008 and not in 2009. The young talent is still there, but I’m not sold on their leaky pen enough to put them past the Sox and Yanks, who will remain divisional juggernauts once again. The Orioles have the young talent to surprise people, especially with their young outfielder, and the reacquisition of Miguel Tejada adds another bat to their lineup, though he’s not going to be the MVP he was a decade ago. The Jays just traded their ace Roy Halladay and are clearly looking towards the future. I don’t think they’ll have the pitching to contend this year at all, and I’m not expecting much from their offense either.

AL Central

Minnesota Twins

Chicago White Sox

Detroit Tigers

Cleveland Indians

Kansas City Royals

The Twins made the playoffs last season despite Justin Morneau going down with injury late. They will continue to do what they do every year, win games. I can’t tell you how they do it with a team that, talent wise, is a .500 team, but they do it. Joe Mauer is going to continue to anchor both their lineup and their defense and I’m expecting a bit of a bounce back here for Francisco Liriano, now over a year removed from Tommy John surgery. He adds to a young rotation that showed a ton of promise last season. The White Sox and a full season of Jake Peavy will be there too in contention. The Tigers gave up Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson in a head scratching cost cutting move. That will show itself on the field this year as they will struggle to get to .500. The Indians were my sleepers last year, and while they don’t have the pitching to be a true contender, their surprise some people assuming their bats stay healthy this year. The pitching staff, though not great, is underrated. They have some interest sleeper names in that seemingly ace-less (or #2 starter-less for that matter) rotation. The Royals have the young talent, but again, I can’t see them putting it all together and getting above .500.

AL West

Los Angeles Angels

Seattle Mariners

Texas Rangers

Oakland Athletics

The Mariners look better on paper and, though this may not be the best reason to not give them the division, but something has to go wrong there. They have arguably the best 1-2 starter punch in the league with Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee, but every single year, they have hope, granted not as much as this year, and the Angels still win this division. The Angels have been hit hard in free agency in recent years, Mark Teixiera, Francisco Rodriguez, John Lackey, and Chone Figgens, but this is a resilient bunch who I am picking to win the division. The Rangers could be a 95 win team if they hit like they did in 2008 and pitch like they did in 2009, but their rotation doesn’t have any starters proven for more than one good year and I’m not counting on Rich Harden to be that guy either. The A’s will pitch well, with vets with Justin Duchscherer and Ben Sheets atop the rotation and great young talent, but neither Duke or Sheets pitched at all last year, so they aren’t reliable. Plus, their offense figures to be one of the worst in the majors.

NL East

Philadelphia Phillies

New York Mets

Florida Marlins

Atlanta Braves

Washington Nationals

Not a huge fan of the Phillies trading Cliff Lee for Roy Halladay simply because, if its working, don’t try to fix it, but its hard to argue with getting Roy Halladay in your rotation next to Cole Hamels. I think this is a team that’s a lock to win the division again with a powerful offense and the best 1-2 pitching punch in the NL. The bullpen could be their achilles heel, but Brad Lidge does well in even numbered years for what its worth, and either way I think they have what it takes to make it back to the World Series. The Mets can’t be worse than last year unless their new stadium collapses on them. The addition of Jason Bay helps, but getting guys like David Wright and Jose Reyes back, hopefully for the season, helps a lot too. Don’t forget they are getting a lot of injured pitchers back as well and Carlos Beltran is reportedly going to be ready to go by May. I think this team is going to challenge for a Wild Card spot. The Marlins will always be there despite never spending any money. They have young talent up to their eyeballs. The Braves lost their best pitcher, Javier Vazquez when they traded him for 65 cents on the dollar to the Yankees, presumably to cut costs. They have some interesting young bats almost ready for the show, but I think they’re going to struggle to find the talent to make the playoffs. 75-80 wins is more likely. The Nationals will continue to be the laughing stock of the league. Jason Marquis and Chien Ming Wang are intriguing offseason additions and Stephen Strasburg’s much anticipated debut will be a big story, but they just don’t have the talent on their roster.

NL Central

St. Louis Cardinals

Chicago Cubs*

Cincinnati Reds

Milwaukee Brewers

Houston Astros

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Cardinals may have overpaid for Matt Holliday, but he’s a hell of a bat protecting Albert Pujols, who, by the way, can swing the bat alright himself. They always seem to find the pitching somewhere and with Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, both of whom were in the top 3 in Cy Young votes, atop their rotation, that shouldn’t be as hard as its been in years past. They are the clear favorites here, but watch out for the Cubbies. They have the talent to win 85+ games when they put their heads together, instead of trying to hit each other in the head with bats. Milton Bradley is gone and, say what you want about Carlos Silva, who they got in exchange for him, he’s not going to cause any problems in the clubhouse. Just as long as they don’t let him on the field. The Reds are my sleeper pick to win 81+ plus games and finally get over .500. They had some very nice quiet offseason additions and they won 78 games last year despite major injuries in their pitching staff. I think they get all the way to 81 this year. The Astros have the bats, but not much else. The Pirates did absolutely nothing this offseason and will continue to be laughed at with the Nats.

NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers

San Francisco Giants

Colorado Rockies

Arizona Diamondbacks

San Diego Padres

The Dodgers had a rough offseason thanks to a martial dispute between owner Frank McCourt and his wife and CEO Jamie McCourt. That really stopped them from doing much this offseason, but all they lost was Randy Wolf. They still have a lot of young talented players, Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw, in the rotation, and an underrated offense that was noticeable better when Manny was in the middle of the lineup last year. As long as he doesn’t try to impregnate himself again, he should be in the lineup everyday, minus a few “Manny being Manny” days off. The Giants have the pitching assuming Matt Cain continues with 2009 success and highly talented Jonathan Sanchez continues what he had going late last season, but the offense is a question mark. Adding a winner like Mark DeRosa helps, but overall I think they’ll struggle to score enough runs. The pitching will continue to bail them out of games though. The Rockies had a great season last year, but I can’t see it continuing this season. This team has potential sophomore slump written all over it, though you can never count them out. The Diamondbacks should be in it too, should their rotation stay healthy, with guys like Dan Haren, Brandon Webb, and now Edwin Jackson, but the question remains whether or not they can score the runs to support them. I think they’ll score enough to contend, but not enough to make the playoffs. The top 4 in this division are going to be very close and I expect all to win more than 80 games. The Padres will continue what seems like a permanent rebuilding effort this year and thus not contend for another season.

ALDS: Red Sox over Angels

ALDS: Yankees over Twins

NLDS: Phillies over Cubs

NLDS: Cardinals over Dodgers

ALCS: Red Sox over Yankees

NLCS: Phillies over Cardinals

World Series: Red Sox over Phillies 

The Red Sox have made quite a splash in the past few days, after a relatively quiet start to their offseason which for the most part consisted of low balling Jason Bay and pissing him off and trading for Boof Bonser to counter the Yankees’ addition of Curtis Granderson. On Monday, the finalized a 5 year 85 million dollar deal with John Lackey, previously of the Los Angeles Angels and then they followed that up by practically saying goodbye to Jason Bay by signing Mike Cameron to a 2 year 15.5 million dollar contract.

I can see the John Lackey signing going horribly wrong. Lackey has a career ERA of 5.75 in Fenway and clearly does not like pitching in the park and has actually expressed frustration at times with the Green Monster. That’s not bad luck because of how many times he’s pitched in the park. That’s a trend, an explainable trend and one I don’t want to see 85 million dollars spent on. Lackey was the one guy in the Angels rotation that I, as a Red Sox fan, used to actually look forward to facing. Now, who do I have to look forward to facing? Lackey also has a injury of history problems, especially recently, and his career ERA of 3.81 is good, but not great, not worth the money we’re paying him. He’s also 31 and will be under contract until he’s 36, a lot can happen between now and then. Remember when the Mets signed Pedro Martinez. He was 33 and they signed him until he was 37, for a big money 4 year deal. Pedro was an amazing pitcher at the time, but age got the best of him quickly and he only ended up winning 32 games in the 4 years he was a Met thanks to age and injury. I don’t like the idea of signing a good, but not great pitcher, who has been awful in Fenway in his career, and is on the wrong side of 30, for 85 million dollars over 5 years.

Cameron is a decent player, decent power, decent speed, amazing fielder, bad hitter for contact, but he’s going to be 37 by Spring Training so he in no way warrants a 15.5 million dollar deal over 2 years. He has 49 homeruns and 24 stolen bases in the last two years, but a .246 average and he did it against inferior NL pitching. He hasn’t played in the AL since 2003 and he strikes out way too much, 298 times in the last 2 years. It’s not that I don’t like having Cameron and Lackey on the team, but the Red Sox gave up 100 million dollars for these two players instead of paying Jason Bay what he wanted, 5 years 75 million dollars. I would have rather had Bay than these two guys and we could have used that 25 million dollars for something nice, like another starter if that was really our problem last year, which I don’t think it was, or maybe we could have used that money and the money we saved by shipping off Mike Lowell, to get Adrian Beltre and add another big hitter to the lineup which we needed more than pitchers.

The one thing I think the Red Sox should do now is go after Adrian Gonzalez of the Padres. He would be a perfect fit for the offense. We could offer a package surrounding Jacoby Ellsbury, who would be a great fit to cover a ton of ground in center field in Petco, and also to hit a ton of doubles and triples into the gaps in Petco. He could offer Ellsbury and a top pitching prospect other than Clay Buchholz plus another 2nd tier prospect and that could be enough to get Gonzalez, who is a 27 year old left handed hitter who can hit to all fields and had 40 homeruns last season in spacious Petco Park and more walks than strikeouts. He could play 1st and Youkilis could move to left field or 3rd, depending on whether or not Mike Lowell actually gets traded, which is not a for sure thing anymore because of his injured thumb. This is a bit of a projected lineup for next year with Gonzalez in Beantown.

2B Dustin Pedroia

3B Kevin Youkilis

1B Adrian Gonzalez

C Victor Martinez

RF JD Drew

DH David Ortiz

CF Mike Cameron

LF Jeremy Hermida

SS Marco Scutaro

Bench: Jed Lowrie, Casey Kotchman, Jason Varitek