NFL Mock Drafts, Fantasy Football, NFL Picks, NFL Power Rankings, and more

After losing 5-2 to the Baltimore Orioles last night, the Red Sox find themselves 7 games back of the Rays for the AL Wild Card. The Sox, who lost 2 of 3 to the Rays last weekend in St. Petersburg, stand at 74-58, 7 games back of the Rays, who stand at 81-51, a game back of the Yankees for best record in the majors. Even if the Sox were to play .700 ball the rest of the way (21-9) and the Rays were to play .500 ball (15-15), the Sox would still be a game back at season’s end. We’re looking at the Sox having to play better than .700 ball for the last month of the season and the Rays having to play .500 ball for the last month of the season in order for the Sox to make the playoffs.

I can’t see the Rays being just average for a month and, even as a Red Sox fan, I can’t see them going 22-8 or 23-7 this last month of the season, not with their roster as it currently is. Ever since Youk went down, this team has been struggling to score runs, no surprise since Youk was arguably their best offensive player. Pedroia’s not coming back. Ellsbury’s not coming back. The middle of their lineup is pretty solid with Victor Martinez, David Ortiz, and Adrian Beltre, but outside of that lineup, there’s simply too many players who are either journeymen or rookies that weren’t supposed to be part of the team this year. Guys like Ryan Kalish, Daniel Nava, Jed Lowrie, Bill Hall, Mike Lowell, and Darnell McDonald have played well, but none of them were supposed to play significant amounts of games this year, and none of them are Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Kevin Youkilis.

Their starting pitching is very strong. Clay Buchholz might be the best pitcher in the world. Jon Lester’s a very strong #2 starter that I can always count on to win big games. Dice-K, John Lackey, and Josh Beckett have their issues, but for 3-5 starters, you could do a whole lot worse. However, starting pitching alone isn’t going to win you 23 games in 30 days with the offense not hitting, the bullpen giving up leads, and the defense allowing unearned runs left and right.

It is sad to have to write this eulogy this early. I know this team would be about 10 games better with a decent bullpen, a competent 3rd base coach, and a reasonable amount of injuries. This team was playing so well, even with Ellsbury and Beckett out, in mid June, before Pedroia went down. Just before he was about to get back, Youkilis went down, and then once he came back, he got hurt again, after 2 days, and is now likely out for the year. Even with all the injuries, this team stayed in the race in the toughest division in baseball for 5 months, and still have a good enough record to be tied for the lead in the AL West with the Texas Rangers, if they were in that division. In the NL, they’d still be leading the Wild Card. This eulogy is not so much a result of a bad team, but bad luck and a bad situation, division wise. That’s what makes this so tough.

Next year will be better. The Rays are sure to lose either one or both of Carlos Pena and Carl Crawford, and possibly their stud closer Rafael Soriano as well. All of the Sox injured players will be back and hopefully the team will stay healthy. They discovered decent young players like Ryan Kalish and Daniel Nava this year, who will hopefully be part of their team next year in some way. As long as they don’t lose a big chunk of the team in free agency, guys like David Ortiz, Adrian Beltre, and Victor Martinez, they should be very competitive next year.

With the Sox out of the picture, here’s a look at how I see the MLB playoff picture playing out.

AL East: Tampa Bay

AL Central: Minnesota

AL West: Texas

AL Wild Card: NY Yankees

NL East: Atlanta

NL Central: Cincinnati

NL West: San Diego

NL Wild Card: Philadelphia

ALDS

Tampa Bay over Texas in 5

NY Yankees over Minnesota in 4

NLDS

Philadelphia over San Diego in 4

Atlanta over Cincinnati in 5

ALCS

Tampa Bay over NY Yankees in 7

NLCS

Atlanta over Philadelphia in 6

World Series

Tampa Bay over Atlanta in 5

The Red Sox fell to 4.5 games back of the Wild Card today with a 6-4 loss to the Oakland Athletics. I don’t often talk about baseball on here, but the Red Sox are my favorite baseball team and the only sports team I really follow religiously. I am also a fan of the Patriots and Celtics but because I feel I need to stay as unbiased as possible for this site and because I am disappointed with some of the actions the franchise made in the past few years (Spygate), I would definitely not call myself a huge Patriots fan. Because I am not a huge basketball fan, I would not call myself a huge Celtics fan either.

The Red Sox are my team. I don’t like it when they fall 4.5 games back of the Wild Card. I don’t like it when they lose to a .500 team (especially when I’m in attendance). 4.5 games back starts to be pushing the envelope a bit in terms of how far out they can be to give themselves a solid shot to make the playoffs once their injuries are cleared up. 4.5 games back is the farthest back they’ve been in over a month. 4.5 games back doesn’t please GM Theo Epstein either as reports have come out that he is planning to make significant additions (in addition to the players they’ll soon get back from injury) at the trade deadline. The names thrown out there, relievers like David Aardsma and Scott Downs, catchers like Chris Synder or Chris Iannetta.

I definitely wouldn’t mind adding another reliever. Their bullpen era is 4.51, 3rd worst in the AL. I would love to add Scott Downs. He’s a solid set up man and a lefty, which is even more important because Hideki Okajima has failed epically as their left handed set up man. I would rather have him than trading for a closer because closers normally cost more in terms of salary and prospects and they sometimes have issues adjusting to new roles like the 7th or the 8th (see Gagne, Eric). Downs has been pitching well in the 7th and 8th all year with a 2.52 ERA for Toronto. Aardsma I don’t want. It seems silly to trade for a closer with a 5.04 ERA, try to make him into a set up man or middle reliever, even though the last time he was a middle reliever for the Sox (a whole 2 years ago), he had an ERA of 5.55. The fact that his price tag in terms of prospects would be equal or higher to Downs’ is ridiculous.

Catcher I can sort of understand. Both Victor Martinez and Jason Varitek are hurt right now and while Martinez could be back in a few days, Varitek could be out a few more weeks, leaving them with a choice between Kevin Cash, Dusty Brown, and Gustavo Molina as their backup catcher for a significant period of time. V-Mart is horrible defensively so the Sox need a solid catcher to use as a defensive replacement late in games, as well as to catch every 5th or 6th day, and also to catch when Martinez moves to DH or 1st, on Ortiz’ or Youk’s off days. Plus if Martinez misses more time than expected or gets hurt again, they’d be in trouble.

Jayson Werth is the one guy I don’t want. I will list a bunch of reasons why.

Slumping- Werth is hitting .241 with 0 homeruns and 3 RBIs this month. In fact, since his hot start in April where he batted .325, he is batting a mere 64 for 238 (.269) and has 4 homeruns and 17 RBIs in June and July. Who wants a slumping hitter?

Ballpark bloats stats- Philadelphia is probably the best hitters park in the bigs. Jayson Werth can probably thank a lot of his recent success to his park. The last season he wasn’t a Phillie, he batted .234 with 7 homeruns and 43 RBIs. There’s a reason the Dodgers let him go. This year in road games, Werth is batting .264 with 3 homeruns and 18 RBIs. At home, he’s batting .302 with 10 homeruns and 32 RBIs. He might not find Fenway nearly as friendly as Citizens Bank.

New league- Werth has 94 career at bats in the AL, and none (other than interleague) since he was a Blue Jay in 2003. Regardless of which league you feel has the better pitchers, there’s no denying this, going to a new league is unfamiliar and unfamiliarity is always the pitcher’s advantage.

In a contract year- Pretty self explanatory, there’s a chance he’d only be a 2-3 month rental, either that or they overpay him after the season.

Don’t need him: When everyone is healthy, this is their outfield. They have Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Cameron, Jeremy Hermida, Darnell McDonald, Daniel Nava, JD Drew. Eric Patterson can also play the outfield. Patterson is as good as gone once they get either Dustin Pedroia or Jacoby Ellsbury back. McDonald is probably toast as well.

When I got the idea to write this rant, I also wanted to say this. Getting Werth would mean getting rid of Nava who actually is hitting better than Werth, albeit in less action, with a .286 average compared to Werth’s .280. Nava also has the higher on base percentage, though Werth leads in slugging and OPS. However, Nava is cheaper. Nava isn’t slumping. Nava knows the pitchers in the AL and Nava has proven himself in the Sox home park. Werth isn’t worth a top pitching prospect like Michael Bowden, no matter how many issues Bowden is having at this stage in his career.

However, the Sox just went right ahead and sent Nava down as I was writing this, to activate Jeremy Hermida. He was sent down over guys like Darnell McDonald and Eric Patterson. Let’s compared Nava to Hermida, McDonald, Patterson, and hell, I’ll even throw in Jayson Werth’s stats in there as well, for comparisons sake.

Hermida: (avg/obp/ops) .217/.268/.384

McDonald: .263/.322/.402

Patterson: .204/.257/.430

Werth: .280/.371/.500

Nava: .286/.381/.451

I hate to sound like I feel that I’m smarter than people with more baseball experience, but I can’t help but feel that I’m smarter than people with more baseball experience. One of the worst feelings as a fan is feeling more competent than your front office, even if it may not be entirely true. After all, I did criticize both the Lackey and Cameron signings, and suggested that the Sox sign Adrian Beltre back in December. 

AL East

New York Yankees

Boston Red Sox*

Tampa Bay Rays

Baltimore Orioles

Toronto Blue Jays

Even as a Red Sox fan, I cannot pick them to win this division. I’d love to be wrong here, but as an unbiased writer trying to pick what I feel is the most likely outcome, I have to go with the Steinbrenners on this one. Gone are Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui from last years squad, but, though they didn’t spend much money this offseason, except for some chump change on guys like Randy Winn, they’ve quietly gotten some big names into town, stealing Javier Vazquez and Curtis Granderson from the Braves and Tigers respectively. The Red Sox are still too talented to be overlooked though. I do not like what they did this offseason, overpaying the likes of Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron, but the addition of John Lackey, no matter how much they spent on him, can’t hurt their rotation. If Jon Lester and Josh Beckett continue to give the Sox what they have been in recent years, and Clay Buchholz continues to develop, and Dice-K is even a fraction of what he was in 2008, this is probably the best rotation in baseball. Their offense is nothing to be overlooked either, though they lack that fearful middle that Sox fans have been so used to. I think they are the favorites for the Wild Card right now. The Rays season is ultimately going to depend on their bullpen. Their bullpen was great in 2008 and bad in 2009 and, coincidentally, the team made the playoffs in 2008 and not in 2009. The young talent is still there, but I’m not sold on their leaky pen enough to put them past the Sox and Yanks, who will remain divisional juggernauts once again. The Orioles have the young talent to surprise people, especially with their young outfielder, and the reacquisition of Miguel Tejada adds another bat to their lineup, though he’s not going to be the MVP he was a decade ago. The Jays just traded their ace Roy Halladay and are clearly looking towards the future. I don’t think they’ll have the pitching to contend this year at all, and I’m not expecting much from their offense either.

AL Central

Minnesota Twins

Chicago White Sox

Detroit Tigers

Cleveland Indians

Kansas City Royals

The Twins made the playoffs last season despite Justin Morneau going down with injury late. They will continue to do what they do every year, win games. I can’t tell you how they do it with a team that, talent wise, is a .500 team, but they do it. Joe Mauer is going to continue to anchor both their lineup and their defense and I’m expecting a bit of a bounce back here for Francisco Liriano, now over a year removed from Tommy John surgery. He adds to a young rotation that showed a ton of promise last season. The White Sox and a full season of Jake Peavy will be there too in contention. The Tigers gave up Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson in a head scratching cost cutting move. That will show itself on the field this year as they will struggle to get to .500. The Indians were my sleepers last year, and while they don’t have the pitching to be a true contender, their surprise some people assuming their bats stay healthy this year. The pitching staff, though not great, is underrated. They have some interest sleeper names in that seemingly ace-less (or #2 starter-less for that matter) rotation. The Royals have the young talent, but again, I can’t see them putting it all together and getting above .500.

AL West

Los Angeles Angels

Seattle Mariners

Texas Rangers

Oakland Athletics

The Mariners look better on paper and, though this may not be the best reason to not give them the division, but something has to go wrong there. They have arguably the best 1-2 starter punch in the league with Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee, but every single year, they have hope, granted not as much as this year, and the Angels still win this division. The Angels have been hit hard in free agency in recent years, Mark Teixiera, Francisco Rodriguez, John Lackey, and Chone Figgens, but this is a resilient bunch who I am picking to win the division. The Rangers could be a 95 win team if they hit like they did in 2008 and pitch like they did in 2009, but their rotation doesn’t have any starters proven for more than one good year and I’m not counting on Rich Harden to be that guy either. The A’s will pitch well, with vets with Justin Duchscherer and Ben Sheets atop the rotation and great young talent, but neither Duke or Sheets pitched at all last year, so they aren’t reliable. Plus, their offense figures to be one of the worst in the majors.

NL East

Philadelphia Phillies

New York Mets

Florida Marlins

Atlanta Braves

Washington Nationals

Not a huge fan of the Phillies trading Cliff Lee for Roy Halladay simply because, if its working, don’t try to fix it, but its hard to argue with getting Roy Halladay in your rotation next to Cole Hamels. I think this is a team that’s a lock to win the division again with a powerful offense and the best 1-2 pitching punch in the NL. The bullpen could be their achilles heel, but Brad Lidge does well in even numbered years for what its worth, and either way I think they have what it takes to make it back to the World Series. The Mets can’t be worse than last year unless their new stadium collapses on them. The addition of Jason Bay helps, but getting guys like David Wright and Jose Reyes back, hopefully for the season, helps a lot too. Don’t forget they are getting a lot of injured pitchers back as well and Carlos Beltran is reportedly going to be ready to go by May. I think this team is going to challenge for a Wild Card spot. The Marlins will always be there despite never spending any money. They have young talent up to their eyeballs. The Braves lost their best pitcher, Javier Vazquez when they traded him for 65 cents on the dollar to the Yankees, presumably to cut costs. They have some interesting young bats almost ready for the show, but I think they’re going to struggle to find the talent to make the playoffs. 75-80 wins is more likely. The Nationals will continue to be the laughing stock of the league. Jason Marquis and Chien Ming Wang are intriguing offseason additions and Stephen Strasburg’s much anticipated debut will be a big story, but they just don’t have the talent on their roster.

NL Central

St. Louis Cardinals

Chicago Cubs*

Cincinnati Reds

Milwaukee Brewers

Houston Astros

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Cardinals may have overpaid for Matt Holliday, but he’s a hell of a bat protecting Albert Pujols, who, by the way, can swing the bat alright himself. They always seem to find the pitching somewhere and with Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, both of whom were in the top 3 in Cy Young votes, atop their rotation, that shouldn’t be as hard as its been in years past. They are the clear favorites here, but watch out for the Cubbies. They have the talent to win 85+ games when they put their heads together, instead of trying to hit each other in the head with bats. Milton Bradley is gone and, say what you want about Carlos Silva, who they got in exchange for him, he’s not going to cause any problems in the clubhouse. Just as long as they don’t let him on the field. The Reds are my sleeper pick to win 81+ plus games and finally get over .500. They had some very nice quiet offseason additions and they won 78 games last year despite major injuries in their pitching staff. I think they get all the way to 81 this year. The Astros have the bats, but not much else. The Pirates did absolutely nothing this offseason and will continue to be laughed at with the Nats.

NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers

San Francisco Giants

Colorado Rockies

Arizona Diamondbacks

San Diego Padres

The Dodgers had a rough offseason thanks to a martial dispute between owner Frank McCourt and his wife and CEO Jamie McCourt. That really stopped them from doing much this offseason, but all they lost was Randy Wolf. They still have a lot of young talented players, Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw, in the rotation, and an underrated offense that was noticeable better when Manny was in the middle of the lineup last year. As long as he doesn’t try to impregnate himself again, he should be in the lineup everyday, minus a few “Manny being Manny” days off. The Giants have the pitching assuming Matt Cain continues with 2009 success and highly talented Jonathan Sanchez continues what he had going late last season, but the offense is a question mark. Adding a winner like Mark DeRosa helps, but overall I think they’ll struggle to score enough runs. The pitching will continue to bail them out of games though. The Rockies had a great season last year, but I can’t see it continuing this season. This team has potential sophomore slump written all over it, though you can never count them out. The Diamondbacks should be in it too, should their rotation stay healthy, with guys like Dan Haren, Brandon Webb, and now Edwin Jackson, but the question remains whether or not they can score the runs to support them. I think they’ll score enough to contend, but not enough to make the playoffs. The top 4 in this division are going to be very close and I expect all to win more than 80 games. The Padres will continue what seems like a permanent rebuilding effort this year and thus not contend for another season.

ALDS: Red Sox over Angels

ALDS: Yankees over Twins

NLDS: Phillies over Cubs

NLDS: Cardinals over Dodgers

ALCS: Red Sox over Yankees

NLCS: Phillies over Cardinals

World Series: Red Sox over Phillies 

The Red Sox have made quite a splash in the past few days, after a relatively quiet start to their offseason which for the most part consisted of low balling Jason Bay and pissing him off and trading for Boof Bonser to counter the Yankees’ addition of Curtis Granderson. On Monday, the finalized a 5 year 85 million dollar deal with John Lackey, previously of the Los Angeles Angels and then they followed that up by practically saying goodbye to Jason Bay by signing Mike Cameron to a 2 year 15.5 million dollar contract.

I can see the John Lackey signing going horribly wrong. Lackey has a career ERA of 5.75 in Fenway and clearly does not like pitching in the park and has actually expressed frustration at times with the Green Monster. That’s not bad luck because of how many times he’s pitched in the park. That’s a trend, an explainable trend and one I don’t want to see 85 million dollars spent on. Lackey was the one guy in the Angels rotation that I, as a Red Sox fan, used to actually look forward to facing. Now, who do I have to look forward to facing? Lackey also has a injury of history problems, especially recently, and his career ERA of 3.81 is good, but not great, not worth the money we’re paying him. He’s also 31 and will be under contract until he’s 36, a lot can happen between now and then. Remember when the Mets signed Pedro Martinez. He was 33 and they signed him until he was 37, for a big money 4 year deal. Pedro was an amazing pitcher at the time, but age got the best of him quickly and he only ended up winning 32 games in the 4 years he was a Met thanks to age and injury. I don’t like the idea of signing a good, but not great pitcher, who has been awful in Fenway in his career, and is on the wrong side of 30, for 85 million dollars over 5 years.

Cameron is a decent player, decent power, decent speed, amazing fielder, bad hitter for contact, but he’s going to be 37 by Spring Training so he in no way warrants a 15.5 million dollar deal over 2 years. He has 49 homeruns and 24 stolen bases in the last two years, but a .246 average and he did it against inferior NL pitching. He hasn’t played in the AL since 2003 and he strikes out way too much, 298 times in the last 2 years. It’s not that I don’t like having Cameron and Lackey on the team, but the Red Sox gave up 100 million dollars for these two players instead of paying Jason Bay what he wanted, 5 years 75 million dollars. I would have rather had Bay than these two guys and we could have used that 25 million dollars for something nice, like another starter if that was really our problem last year, which I don’t think it was, or maybe we could have used that money and the money we saved by shipping off Mike Lowell, to get Adrian Beltre and add another big hitter to the lineup which we needed more than pitchers.

The one thing I think the Red Sox should do now is go after Adrian Gonzalez of the Padres. He would be a perfect fit for the offense. We could offer a package surrounding Jacoby Ellsbury, who would be a great fit to cover a ton of ground in center field in Petco, and also to hit a ton of doubles and triples into the gaps in Petco. He could offer Ellsbury and a top pitching prospect other than Clay Buchholz plus another 2nd tier prospect and that could be enough to get Gonzalez, who is a 27 year old left handed hitter who can hit to all fields and had 40 homeruns last season in spacious Petco Park and more walks than strikeouts. He could play 1st and Youkilis could move to left field or 3rd, depending on whether or not Mike Lowell actually gets traded, which is not a for sure thing anymore because of his injured thumb. This is a bit of a projected lineup for next year with Gonzalez in Beantown.

2B Dustin Pedroia

3B Kevin Youkilis

1B Adrian Gonzalez

C Victor Martinez

RF JD Drew

DH David Ortiz

CF Mike Cameron

LF Jeremy Hermida

SS Marco Scutaro

Bench: Jed Lowrie, Casey Kotchman, Jason Varitek

 Minnesota vs. NY Yankees

I do believe that any team can beat any beat in a best of a 5 series if the momentum is right, and I would like the see the Yankees lose, but I don’t think the Twins have enough firepower, before pitching and offensively, for me to legitimately predict them in this series. The Twins are an excellent small market small ball team, but the Yankees have the big names and assuming they produce (A-Rod?), they should win this series.

NY Yankees in 4

LA Angels vs. Boston

You can’t underestimate the Red Sox’ success against the Angels in the playoffs in years past, but also you can’t underestimate their success against the Angels in the regular season this year. The Angels can give the Red Sox a lot of trouble if they get on the basepaths and start running, but Red Sox pitching has kept them off the basepaths this year and I believe they will continue that here and win a good series.

Boston in 4

Colorado vs. Philadelphia

I don’t want to count the Rockies out because they seem to prove people wrong when people count them out, but I don’t see them having the starting pitching to hang with the Phillies. The Phillies have the advantage in the starting pitching matchup in pretty much every game this series and you can’t forget about their deadly offense as well. The only thing that can hurt the Phillies is their bullpen and Brad Lidge at the end of it.

Philadelphia in 4

LA Dodgers vs. St. Louis

The Dodgers have a good team, but they’ve kind of been stumbling into the playoffs. They haven’t been much more than a solid .500 team since about June. Teams that jump out to big early division leads always then coast tend to struggle in the playoffs. As for the Cardinals, this seems like their year again in the NL. They have an excellent balance of hitting and pitching.

St. Louis in 5