The Football Fan Spot

I think this may be the biggest trade ever in the history of anything. Has there ever been a bigger trade in sports history? Maybe when the Cowboys traded Herschel Walker to the Vikings for their entire team, their next like ten draft picks, and half of their owner’s soul, but this is different. This one is actually fair. Two, count ‘em two, former Cy Youngs switching teams in the same deal, as well as 7 top prospects switching teams as well. I don’t even want to think about all the work that went into this deal because I know how hard it can be for even the smallest deal to get done, but this one, 4 teams, 11 players, 6 million dollars changing hands, these GMs must not have slept for days to get this one done. Maybe that explains a few things here, more on that later, but anyway, I’m not going to talk about how it got done because that’s its impossible. Its done, let’s make sense of it.

Deal for Phillies

Receive: Roy Halladay, 6 million dollars, and prospects Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, and Juan Ramirez

Give: Cliff Lee, and prospects Travis D’Arnaud, Michael Taylor, and Kyle Drabek

Honestly, its hard to make a call on the prospects here because the only one I’ve actually seen play is Kyle Drabek, but I can assume that they are getting close in value to what they are giving, maybe a little less because Drabek seems like a future ace. I’ll just focus on Cliff Lee for Roy Halladay. I don’t understand the move. Halladay is a great pitcher, don’t get me wrong, and I think he’s better than Lee, but Lee is proven in that park, in that city, for that team, in that league. When a player changes teams, there are so many things changing, so many variables that could go wrong and then all of a sudden the player isn’t who you thought he was, especially when changing leagues and facing batters he’s never faced before. Remember Barry Zito? Halladay is better than Zito, but imagine a few years ago when Zito was still with the A’s. If you had heard that the A’s were trading Zito for someone that was slightly lesser of a pitcher, but had been proven in both leagues, you would have said that A’s won that deal. However, a few years later, Zito is in the NL and pretty much sucks. Lee is not as good as Halladay, but he’s proven in both leagues and younger. He fits the team. He’s proven with the team, with the ballpark, the league, the city, the fans, etc. Halladay hasn’t done that get and, though I would never hope this, in a few years, he might not as the dominant starter he is now. I don’t understand the move here.

Deal for Mariners

Receive: Cliff Lee

Give: Prospects Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, and Juan Ramirez

Again I’ve never seen any of these prospects play or even heard of them, all I know is that Baseball America, who I trust for prospect rankings, has Aumont and Ramirez ranked as their top two pitching prospects. However, I like the deal for them. Cliff Lee is not Erik Bedard. He’s not injury prone and overrated. He’s a legit ace who has success in the AL, which is key. They need an ace and he and Felix Hernandez, assuming they don’t go and trade him now, make a hell of a 1-2 punch atop their rotation.

Deal for Athletics

Receive: Michael Taylor

Give: Brett Wallace

Straight prospect swap, Billy Beane has done well with scouting young talent in the past, so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.

Deal for Blue Jays

Receive: Brett Wallace, Kyle Drabek, Travis D’Arnaud

Give: Roy Halladay, 6 million

Bye bye face of the franchise. Hopefully these prospect pan out or their fans are going to have a riot. I have never seen Brett Wallace play, but from what I know about him he’s a 2008 1st round pick, who has been traded twice already, once for Halladay once for Matt Holliday (talk about a lot to live up to), he’s a natural 3rd baseman who is going to have to play 1st in the future because of his size, and he has a huge bat. D’Arnaud was one of the Phillies top ten prospects and plays a position of need for the Jays. However, all I can say for now is these guys better be good.

Phillies World Series Gear 2009

The Yankees are loaded, as you would expect them to be after all the money they’ve spent this decade, especially the 440 million or so they spent on 3 players last off-season. Despite the fact that its been proven not to work as an effective offensive strategy in years past, this team wins games by hitting a lot of homeruns and any one of their hitters 1-9 is capable of hitting one out in every given at bat.

This team scored more runs than any other team this season. They hit 244 homeruns this season, good for most in the league and 20 more than the two 2nd place teams in that category, the Texas Rangers and the Yankees’ World Series opponent, the Philadelphia Phillies.

They have a very strong rotation led by ace CC Sabathia who has proven that he can mow down the opponent even on short rest. They also have off season acquisition AJ Burnett and old but steady Andy Pettitte who are capable of having big games. Their bullpen is strong as it has ever been lead by future hall of Fame closer Mariano “Mo” Rivera and a bunch of good, young, strong arms strengthening the bridge to Mo.

However, the Phillies are equally loaded. They won the World Series last year and bring to the table an even better team this year. They lost Pat Burrell in the off-season, but replaced him in the outfield with Raul Ibanez who had a breakout year this year at 37 years old despite missing about a month with injuries.

Outfielder Jayson Werth, a former career journeyman, also had a breakout year this year with 36 homeruns and 99 RBIs at age 30. Completing their outfield is Shane Victorino, who had a career year this year and made the All-Star team on the final vote, beating out  Pablo “Panda” Sandoval.

They also added 2008 Cy Young award winner Cliff Lee to their rotation to compliment 2008 World Series MVP Cole Hamels. They’ve added Pedro Martinez, who has had a Hall of Fame caliber career and has plenty of Postseason experience from his days with the Boston Red Sox.

Their only question mark coming into the Postseason was their bullpen. Brad Lidge, who didn’t blow a save all last season in 48 chances and recorded the final out for the Phillies in the World Series, blew 11 saves this season in the regular season and had an ERA of 7.21. It was unknown whether or not they would keep him as their postseason closer. Lidge has been lights out thus far with 4 saves in 4 chances so far this postseason and is yet to give up a run.

On paper these teams are extremely closely matched, but the Phillies are regarded as an underdog to the Yankees who won 103 regular season games this season, most in baseball. Often times, when teams are this closely matched, the underdog will win because they will feel disrespected and thus want it more. Baseball and life often comes down to who wants it more. It will be a great series, but I expect the Phillies to win it in 7, with Pedro Martinez pitching a dominant performance in game 7 in Yankee stadium, showing the Yankees who their “daddy’ is.

Verdict: Phillies in 7

Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees

            As I said in my blog, I am picking the Angels to win the whole thing because they are the only ones this year that are playing for more than a trophy. A lot of times you’ll see the team that wants it most, not the most talented team, win the World Series and no one is playing for more than the Angels who are playing in memory of the late Nick Adenhart, their 22-year-old rookie teammate who died tragically in April when a car in which he was a passenger was hit by a drunk driver. The Yankees will be tough, but I think the Angels want it more

Angels in 6

Philadelphia Philles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

            There are no major psychological advantages in this matchup, at least none like the one in the Angels/Dodgers matchup, but it certainly helps the Philles that they won this exact same series last year in five games in the NLCS. The rosters haven’t changed that much and in fact the Philles might actually be better with the addition of Cliff Lee. The Philles have two outstanding hitters, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, and two ace esque pitchers in Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, as well as depth throughout their rotation and their lineup. The only weakness is their bullpen, but Brad Lidge has pitched well in the postseason and so much of a closer’s job is psychological, so this hot streak in recent games for him is going to be huge.

Philles in 6

In no particular order

Boston Red Sox

The Blue Jays have already said that they aren’t afraid to trade Halladay to a division rival, which might not be smart as they’d have to face him like 4-5 times per year. Nonetheless, they aren’t afraid to do it, so the Sox are going to be mentioned. The Jays would likely ask for a package of prospect centered around Clay Buchholz or Michael Bowden and the Sox, who have held on to their prospects in recent years, don’t want to trade either of them. I doubt he goes to Boston.

New York Yankees

The Yankees could use Halladay, as their rotation is a bit of a mess, but they will have some trouble doing so. One, they don’t have the prospects that the Jays want, and two, as crazy as this sounds, they don’t have the money. In a down economy, after building a whole new stadium and spending a half of a billion dollars in guaranteed money on free agents this offseason, they don’t have a lot of funds left, especially since Yankee stadium isn’t selling out like it used to. 

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox will likely decide if they are buyers or sellers in the next week or so. If they decide they are out of it, they’ll put guys like Jermaine Dye on the block. If they decide that being at 44-42, 3.5 back of the NL central lead, is too close to sell, they’ll likely go after Halladay. Remember, they almost traded for Jake Peavy before he shot the deal down. Halladay will likely cost them a little bit more than Peavy, but the White Sox have shown they are willing to make the blockbuster deal. 

Texas Rangers

The Rangers make a lot of sense. As good as their pitching as been, they could still use a frontline guy like Halladay. I proposed a deal in an earlier blog before the season that would send Halladay to the Rangers for Michael Young and a prospect, but now it looks like the Jays want a prospect centric package. No problem, the Rangers have the best farm system in a majors. The only problem, the Rangers are reportedly taking out MLB loans to pay their players’ salaries so them taking on Halladay’s 12 million a year or signing him to an extension seems very unlikely. 

Los Angeles Angels

The Angels have held on to their prospects for years, but they traded for Mark Teixiera last year to help them hold off the Rangers. Now the Rangers are ahead of them in the standings, though its close, so it is possible that they could trade for Halladay to put them back on top. The only thing is, Halladay is going to be a lot more expensive than Teixiera, who they got at a very cheap price, so I don’t know if the Angels want to give up that much. It just doesn’t seem like their way.

Philadelphia Philles

The Philles have the farm system and they definitely have the need. They could run away with the overall poor NL East with the combination of Halladay and Cole Hamels atop their rotation. They are one of the teams that makes the most sense right now as they look to defend their World Series title.

St. Louis Cardinals

Its not normally the Cardinals’ way to trade for big name players, but they are reportedly very interested and look like one of the front runners. These are all rumors, but it could make a lot of sense. The Cards need something to separate them from the rest of the division and with Chris Carpenter’s health issues, they don’t have a dependable ace.

Los Angeles Dodgers

They could make sense, but I doubt he will go there, for 3 reasons. One, the Dodgers just don’t trade young for old and take on money. They already spent money taking on Manny last year and I don’t expect them to do that again. Two, the Blue Jays have asked for either Chad Billingsley or Clayton Kershaw in return. Kershaw and Billingsley are not just good prospects, but huge parts of the team right now. Three, they don’t need him. They have the best record in the majors, what would be the point. 

San Francisco Giants

The Giants might just be in this because the Dodgers are, but Buster Olney named them as one of 5 front runners for Halladay. They already have Cain and Lincecum, and 25 games in which they have given up 1 or fewer runs. They really need a bat, but there just aren’t that many good bats out there. They have the farm system, though I don’t think they would give up Buster Posey or Madison Bumgarner. 

Colorado Rockies

They are a bit of a sleeper. They have the need, wanting to leapfrog the Giants for the wild card. Halladay is from Denver so he could give them a hometown discount on extension negotiations. I just don’t know if they have the prospects that would interest the Jays enough to pull the trigger.