The Football Fan Spot

1. Keep Terry Francona

Well I guess it’s too late for this. Francona met with Red Sox executives Friday morning and an official announcement has confirmed what most in the know have assumed for the 24 hours prior, Terry Francona is no longer the manager of the Boston Red Sox. It’s being spun as mutual, but that’s bullshit. One of two things happened. Francona was fired (or more politely, he just didn’t have his option picked up for the next 2 years) and management is saying it’s mutual and Francona is being polite and not saying it wasn’t. Or Francona was fired and both sides agreed to call it mutual just because it sounds better. This was no more mutual than any “mutual” breakup of a couple.

I completely disagree with their decision to let him go. They’re just making the scapegoat. He’s won 2 World Series in 8 years. They hadn’t won for 86 years when he got there. I don’t always agree with everything he does. I happen to think he overmanages and overthinks his lineup, but I can live with that. The players love him. He completely changed the locker room culture of this team. There isn’t a better option than him out there.

It’s not Tito’s fault the team was built such that it was so top heavy that it couldn’t handle injuries or struggles to key guys. Tito didn’t give John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka big contracts only to have them be completely useless (for different reasons), down the stretch. Tito didn’t sign Carl Crawford, who went on to have a lower on base percentage this year than Adam Dunn (look it up).

I’m not saying fire Theo Epstein, but I don’t think it should have been an either/or type thing. We won 90 games this year. If we tweaked a few things in the offseason, replaced JD Drew’s, Mike Cameron’s, and Marco Scutaro’s combined 28 million in expiring salary with depth, we’re a lot better of a team.

Now, best case scenario we hire in house and promote bench coach DeMarlo Hale. Hale is an extension of Francona and was interviewed by the Blue Jays for their managerial job last offseason (they eventually went with former Red Sox pitching coach John Farrell). However, rumor seems to be that Hale got let go as well Friday, so that seems unlikely.

Other popularly rumored options are Phillies’ bench coach Pete Mackanin, former Mets’ manager and current ESPN analyst Bobby Valentin, former Red Sox scapegoat Bill Buckner (just kidding), Tampa Bay’s bench coach Dave Martinez, and even (though I find this very hard to believe), former Yankees and Dodgers skipper Joe Torre. Personally, if it has to be an outside hire, my favorite is not on that list.

As weird as this sounds, my choice of outside hire would be former A’s and Brewers skipper Ken Macha. I’ve always liked him. He managed the A’s when they were a perennial playoff team and was fired after coming up short of the World Series in 2006, a move I didn’t agree with. They haven’t made the playoffs since. Macha spent 2009 and 2010 in Milwaukee with limited success, but I think he’s still a good manager. He’s a former minor league manager of the Pawtucket Red Sox so he has some experience within the organization. But if it were up to me, Tito would still be the skipper. Let’s move on to fixing to the roster.

2. Resign David Ortiz

Ortiz’ OPS in 2011 was .952. Though only that’s the 6th highest total of his career, it fits in pretty well with the range of OPS he had in his glory days (2003-2007). In that stretch his OPS was between .961 and 1.066 every season. .952 is not too far removed from that and that number was even higher before a back injury slowed him a bit down the stretch. That number was 2nd on our team behind Gonzalez and his 29 homeruns were 2nd behind Jacoby Ellsbury on the team. He can’t run and he can’t field, but there’s no question he’s one of our best hitters. Plus, he just wouldn’t look right in another uniform.

If Francona has to go, we need to keep at least this part of our team stable. He’s 36 in November, but a 2 year deal with a team option for a 3rd year at about 10 million per year is a very good value for him and that seems to be what people are predicting he’ll want from the team. He’d definitely take a hometown discount. He wants to return. We should want him back.

3. Don’t resign Papelbon

If you had asked me two weeks ago, I would have said, we have to bring back Papelbon. In fact, I had this very same discussion with a friend at a Red Sox game a few weeks ago (Tuesday the 20th’s game against Baltimore). The following is basically a summary of my argument.

I am a huge fan of Moneyball and a big part of Moneyball is that the closer position is overrated and overpaid. In fact, Billy Beane used to have a different closer every year and trade him at the end of the year for a prospect and he’d almost always win the deal.

However, we aren’t the Oakland A’s. We have money. If there’s one thing that Billy Beane isn’t very good at it’s getting people to come to the ballpark. A large reason behind that is the fact that the A’s trade their stars all the time. They always sell high, which is smart for a stock trader, but as a general manager of a baseball team, it leaves the fans with no one to latch onto.

Quick, think of the Oakland A’s right now. Who is the first player who comes to mind? Chances are, a third of all people won’t be able to think of any, another third will think of someone who isn’t even on the team anymore, and the final third would all think of a different player. I’m originally from the Bay Area. A’s commercials are pathetic. They had to put Mark Ellis as the lead in a commercial once and now he’s not even there.

In baseball terms Papelbon might not be worth the 12 or so million dollars per year he wants, but the front office is working with a payroll upwards of 160 million. You find somewhere in that payroll for Papelbon. Nothing compares to that feeling when you’re in the ballpark and “Shipping up to Boston” comes on after the bottom of the 8th with a lead and you know the game is over because Papelbon doesn’t blow saves (to this point he had only blown one all season). Sure, we might be able to get someone who does his job almost as well for significantly less money, but why do that if we don’t need to? It’s more fun with Papelbon.

Papelbon blew a save that day. I literally made that argument after the bottom of the 8th when “Shipping up to Boston” came on. I jinxed us. We lost 7-5. About a week later, Papelbon would blow his 3rd save of the year, leading 4-3 with 2 outs and 2 strikes, in a game that would end our season.

During every Red Sox game I’ve ever seen on television or in person where Papelbon comes into the game with a lead, I do the same thing. I count strikes and outs. Pointer finger on my left hand is 1 strike, pointer and pinky on my left hand is 2 strikes, pointer on my right is one out, pointer and pinky my right hand is 2 outs and with 2 outs and 2 strikes, I bring both hands together, touch the fingers, and wait for strike 3, two thumbs up (I’m weird). During game 162 of this season, the thumbs didn’t come up. Neither of them. I sat dumbfounded staring at my TV with my pinkies and pointers touching for about 20 minutes (not even making this up), trying to figure out what happened (I then proceeded to attempt to rip my head off. It didn’t work).

The point is, closers are always replaceable. I looked at our payroll for next year (more on this later) and at the end of it, the difference between signing Papelbon for 12 million and signing someone like Jose Valverde or Ryan Madson for 7 million is roughly the amount we’d need to pay a back end of the rotation guy, which we desperately need. Because of big, overpaid contracts like Carl Crawford’s and John Lackey’s, we don’t have a ton of money to play with this offseason. We have some, but we also have our fair share of needs. I don’t see how Papelbon fits and he’s no longer an absolutely necessity.

3. Get rid of John Lackey

Speaking of big, overpaid contracts, meet John Lackey, the worst contract in the league (owed about 48 million dollars over the next 3 years). After a disappointing first year with the Red Sox in 2010, a 4.40 ERA, his highest since 2004, everyone thought Lackey would bounce back this year. He did the complete opposite of that. His ERA rose another 2 points to 6.41. How he somehow went 12-12, I don’t know.

On top of this, his body language is terrible; he frequently yells at his fielders, complains about cheap runs, and in his final start of the season he complained about being pulled in the 7th with the tying run on in arguably the biggest game of the season up to that point. You only get left in the game in that situation if you’re the ace. Last I checked, you can’t be an ace if your ERA is in the mid 6s. And from what I’ve heard, his teammates don’t even like him. I’m not completely blaming this guy for their late season collapse, but having a cancer like that can’t help.

Speaking of cancer, I had sympathy for Lackey at the start of the season. His wife was going through breast cancer and he seemed genuinely distraught about it. That’s an acceptable excuse for pitching like crap. He had the sympathy vote. However, he divorced his wife in August and then blew up when the media found out a month later. At the very least, that kills his sympathy vote. At the most, he’s a complete dick who files for divorce from a cancer patient. (Just a side note, Lackey’s wife is WAY better looking than he is. Lackey is probably one of the 5 ugliest men on earth, along with Coach K and Tony Dungy).

I understand Lackey will be extremely hard to move, but we have to do everything we can to get rid of him. He’s a negative value to this team. We have two options and either one of them is fine with me. We trade him somewhere for a no name prospect and pay more than half of his remaining contract just so the other team will even consider taking him on. Or we trade him somewhere for an equally or near equally bad contract. If we were a small market team, the former would be the right move, but we’re not. We can afford to take on another bad contract in return as long as it means we get a player who might possibly be semi productive for us.

Peter Gammons threw out Barry Zito's and Carlos Zambrano’s names a few days ago. However, it appears the Giants are keeping Zito and want him to compete for their 5th starter role. Meanwhile, Zambrano has a lot less on his deal than Lackey does. Zambrano could be a free agent next offseason. Lackey has 3 more years to go.

So if not either of them, how about Jason Bay? The contracts match up, 3 years 47 million for Lackey, 3 years 51 million for Bay. The Mets need another starting pitcher and hope Lackey can bounce back. The Red Sox need a right field replacement for JD Drew and Jason Bay had a .921 OPS in 2009 for us before he signed in New York. He can handle playing in a big market and his stroke is perfect for Fenway.

Side note, after the 2009 season, I did an article similar to this, only it was in retrospect. I argued that we should have signed Bay instead of Lackey and used the 7 million dollars we used on Bay’s replacement Mike Cameron on a back end starter. I was right, but only by default because, as far as I know, Bay isn’t a dick. He’s just unproductive. But I definitely would have preferred giving Bay 85 million over 5 years than giving Lackey than same amount. Actually, here’s a list of things I would have rather done with that 85 million dollars than give it to John Lackey (in order).

4. Give it to Carlos Zambrano

3. Give it to Barry Zito

2. Give it to Jason Bay

1. Light it on fire

Anyway, this deal makes sense for both teams. Neither team has anything to lose and both take a chance on upside that these guys find their old form. We need a right fielder. He doesn’t have to be dependable because we have Josh Reddick just in case, but if Bay can revive his career anywhere, I think it’s in Fenway. However, this move leaves us very thin in the starting rotation. Say what you want about Lackey, he was 3rd on the team in starts (and you wonder why we missed the playoffs). If he’s gone, Beckett and Lester are the only two guys we can count on to be in our rotation for next year. Let’s try to fix that.

4. Sign Paul Maholm and Jon Garland

You’re probably wondering, why Maholm and Garland? Why not try to make a big splash for CC or Carpenter or Buehrle? Two reasons, one we don’t have the money. Adrian Gonzalez’s extension kicks in this year, as does Clay Buchholz’ significantly smaller extension. We also have to deal with Jacoby’s arbitration case (more on that later), which could pay him about 7 million dollars next year based on what Hunter Pence got with similar stats last year and that’s assuming Ellsbury doesn’t win MVP.

Two, and I want to stress this, I want us to copy what the Yankees did last offseason. Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, Russell Martin, Eric Chavez, and Andruw Jones were all steals. They bought low on a bunch of guys and some didn’t pan out, but some did. We need to do something similar. This applies more to Garland (coming off shoulder surgery) than it does to Maholm. Garland could sign for an incentive laden one year deal.

Before getting hurt this year, Garland threw 190+ innings in 9 straight seasons from 2002-2010. His ERA never went above 4.90 in a single season in that span. If he can bounce back from the only major injury he’s ever had in his major league career, he’s exactly what we didn’t have last year, a consistent starter after Lester and Beckett. Besides, Garland is perfect for Fenway. He’s a groundball pitcher (16th in the league with a 1.12 groundball to flyball ratio in his last full season 2010). Fenway is a small ballpark. Pitchers who get the ball airborne are in trouble. We can get this guy for 3 million because he’s being undervalued, just like Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon were last offseason.

Moving on to Maholm, it would take a medium sized contract to sign him. He’s owed 9.5 million dollars by the Pirates next year, should they pick up his option, but sources say they won’t. We could get him for about 3 years 24 million at the most. Epstein has been terrible with big contracts (Matt Clement, Julio Lugo, JD Drew, Dice-K, Mike Cameron, John Lackey, Carl Crawford). I don’t think he’s ever hit on one and I think he knows it. He even said he’s going to be rethinking how the team approaches free agency this offseason. Signing someone like Maholm to be a medium sized contract is a necessary shift from the approach of old.

More background on Maholm, since a lot of people don’t know who he is coming from Pittsburgh. He’s pitched in 160 innings or more in every full season in the majors since 2006. He’s still only 29. He’s coming off a career high 3.66 ERA season. For the record, John Lackey had only three seasons with an ERA lower than 3.66 when we gave him 85 million over 5 in 2009. 3. Out of 9 full seasons. Maholm is consistent. He’s still relatively young and coming off a career high. He’s underrated. And he’s a groundball pitcher (20th in 2010 with a 1.08 groundball to flyball ratio). He’s perfect to be our 4th starter.

So we have Beckett and Lester as our top 2. Buchholz was activated for the season finale, but didn’t pitch because, you know, we thought we were going to win. He should be good to go in 2012 as our #3. Maholm is a consistent #4 and Garland should be able to bounce back and be a dependable #5. I’m a lot more confident with those #4 and #5 starters than I was with Lackey and Daisuke coming into 2010.

Maybe we sign a veteran like Livan Hernandez or someone to a minor league deal too. We have guys like Michael Bowden, Felix Doubront, and Kyle Weiland in the minors as well in case we need a spot start. And then of course we have Wakefield (more on him later) and Aceves out of the bullpen who can start if need be.

5. Resign Jason Varitek and Tim Wakefield

These guys will keep getting one year deals no questions asked until they decide to hang it up. There’s not even a question here. Both signed for 2 million last offseason. That sounds reasonable for this season as well, provided neither retire.

6. Don’t extend Jacoby Ellsbury

I love Ellsbury. He’s coming off an amazing season where he almost carried us into the postseason. He had an OPS of .928, stole 39 bases, had 32 homeruns, played spotless defense in center field, and most importantly, always came up clutch when no one else did. He might be the MVP of the league. However, he’s got two more years of arbitration. He had almost as many DL stints in 2010 as he had extra base hits.

Let’s make him put up one more good year before we give him a giant contract. His arbitration will probably get him around 7 or 8 million this offseason. That’s a lot better than giving him 16-18 million per year over 5 years and then finding out he’s a one year wonder as he and Crawford count their money in the outfield until 2017. Even if it means we have to give him Crawford type money next offseason. With Daisuke’s and Bobby Jenks’ deals coming off the books after next season, we can afford to wait and pay him more next offseason.

7. Sign Javier Lopez

We have Wakefield and Aceves as our long guys, either Madson or Valverde as our closer, Bard as the primary set up guy, Franklin Morales back after arbitration, Bobby Jenks unfortunately back with one more year on his deal, we need one more guy for that pen and it needs to be a lefty since Morales is the only lefty setup guy in that situation. This unfortunately means there’s not going to be room for Matt Albers, an arbitration case, to be brought back, unless he’ll agree to a minor league deal. Albers was a surprisingly good reliever for us this year, but he sucked down the stretch. Instead, we bring back a familiar face and a 2 time World Series Champion, Javier Lopez (2007 with Boston, 2010 with San Francisco).

He’s the best lefty on the market, and I feel like he’ll be undervalued once again. Lopez has ERAs of 2.34 and 2.72 in the last two years and had ERAs of 2.70, 3.10, 2.43 in 3 years with Boston from 2006-2008 before a fluke down year in 2009 that ended his time with the team. He’s good and we need a lefty specialist and we know he can pitch in Boston. Sign him.

8. Bring back Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Jed Lowrie, Alfredo Aceves, Daniel Bard, and Franklin Morales

All 5 are arbitration eligible and all 5 can be brought back on cheap one year deals. This roster is rounding into form. As far as I see it, there are 2 spots left on the 25 man roster. One of them will not be occupied by one of our midseason trade acquisitions, who is also arbitration eligible, or another arbitration eligible outfielder.

9. Sign Willie Harris over Mike Aviles and Darnell McDonald

Mike Aviles hit well down the stretch and I’d love if he could come back on a minor league deal for depth purposes, but we already have a utility man in Jed Lowrie. Aviles was brought in to be an outfielder who hits lefties. However, he doesn’t have the speed that Harris has and Harris can provide the same ability as an outfielder who hits lefties that Aviles and another Francona favorite Darnell McDonald has.

Harris has an on base percentage against lefties of .407 since 2008. Between him and Bay, we’d have two outfielders who could hit lefties, weaknesses of both Josh Reddick and Carl Crawford, and Harris can be a pinch runner late in games. Watching Aviles and Lars Anderson (a first baseman) pinch run consistently in September was just sad. We need a Dave Roberts type. I’d like Aviles and McDonald to stay with the team on the 40 man roster on a minor league deal, but that’s not necessarily a given. One final thing.

10. Let Scutaro go

Scutaro has a 6 million dollar team option for 2012. Scutaro is a nice player who hit well down the stretch (one of the few), but he’s not worth that for next year. We have Jed Lowrie who can play shortstop from time to time. We also have a prospect in Jose Iglesias who should be our starting shortstop next year.

The Red Sox have had a revolving door at shortstop since Nomar was traded in 2004 (Orlando Cabrera, Edgar Renteria, Alex Gonzalez, Julio Lugo, Alex Gonzalez again, Marco Scutaro and I’m sure I’m missing some). Iglesias has the upside to end that and we need that. He’s not the best hitter, but the report on him says he’s a future gold glover at the position and can be a top fielder shortstop from the word go should he start in 2012.

He’s cheaper than Scutaro. He has more upside than Scutaro. He’s a better fielder than Scutaro now. He’s not as good a hitter as Scutaro, but we have other guys in the lineup to pick up the slack. As long as he hits .250ish, we should be fine given his glove at short. Worst case, Jed Lowrie has to play shortstop.

Let’s look at the roster

C Jason Varitek- 2 million

C Jarrod Saltalamacchia- 2 million (estimation)

1B Adrian Gonzalez- 21 million

2B Dustin Pedroia- 8 million

SS Jose Iglesias- 2.06 million

SS Jed Lowrie- 1 million (estimation)

3B Kevin Youkilis- 12 million

LF Carl Crawford- 19.5 million

CF Jacoby Ellsbury- 7 million (estimation)

CF Willie Harris- 1 million

RF Jason Bay- 17 million

RF Josh Reddick- .5 million (estimation)

DH David Ortiz- 10 million

SP Josh Beckett- 15.75 million

SP Jon Lester- 7.625 million

SP Clay Buchholz- 3.5 million

SP Paul Maholm- 8 million (estimation)

SP Jon Garland- 3 million (estimation)

RP Tim Wakefield- 2 million

RP Alfredo Aceves- 1.5 million (estimation)

RP Bobby Jenks- 6 million

RP Javier Lopez- 3 million (estimation)

RP Franklin Morales- 1 million (estimation)

RP Daniel Bard- 1 million (estimation)

RP Ryan Madson- 7 million (estimation)

Total payroll: $162,335,000

That’s actually lower than this year so if my estimations were on the low side anywhere, this roster still makes sense. How about some thoughts from Red Sox nation?

All stats as of August 25th 2011

The Boston Red Sox came into the 2011 season with high hopes as the popular pick to win the World Series. They won 89 games and scored 818 runs, 2nd to the Yankees, in 2010 despite having Jacoby Ellsbury miss 144 games, Dustin Pedroia miss 87 games, and Kevin Youkilis miss 60. They added Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, two of the top offensive players in the league, in the offseason and many were projecting bounce back seasons from either Josh Beckett and/or John Lackey to compliment their two young breakout aces Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester.

4 games into the season and the 2011 Red Sox already would have had to make history to win the World Series. They lost their first 4 games, something no team had ever done and gone on to win the World Series. It didn’t get much better from there. They won a mere 2 of their first 12 games and didn’t get to .500 until May 15th when they were 20-20. Incidentally, that win that got them to .500 was a 7-5 win over the New York Yankees to complete a sweep of the Bombers in the Bronx. That sparked their season. Since May 13th, the Red Sox have gone 63-30 a ridiculous .677 winning percentage over 93 games.

Now they sit at 80-50, the 2nd best record in the majors behind Philadelphia, and the best record in the American League. They have a 1 game lead on the division over the Yankees, a team they have a 10-2 record against. They’ve secured a winning record over the Yanks for the first time since 2004 and there are still 6 games to go this season in that rivalry. Should the Red Sox slip out of first place, they’d still have a comfortable lead over the Angels in the Wild Card. The Angels currently trail the Yankees by 8 games. It appears very possible that this team could do something no one has ever done, win the World Series after an 0-4 start. Let’s take a look at how.

The strength of the Boston Red Sox is their offense. They’ve already scored 700 runs in 130 games, good for an average of 5.4 runs per game and good for 2nd most runs in the major leagues, 6 behind the New York Yankees. They are on pace to score 872 runs this season. Their lineup is paced by 3 legitimate MVP candidates atop the order in Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, and Adrian Gonzalez as well as a 1-5 that would make sabermetricians shit their pants.

The top 5 of Ellsbury, Pedroia, Gonzo, Kevin Youkilis, and David Ortiz combines for an average of .309, an on base percentage of .385, a slugging percentage of .519, and an OPS of .904. If their 1-5 hitters were one guy, he would rank 11th in the majors in OPS ahead of Albert Pujols at .898. Essentially, we have 5 Albert Pujols atop our lineup and 2 of them (Ellsbury and Pedroia) can steal bases.

Notice nowhere in that top 5 is Carl Crawford, their 142 million dollar offseason signing. Crawford has slumped mightily this season and by mightily I mean mightily. He slumped way longer than anyone else on the team. He wasn’t producing even when this team was winning. His slump was so long that some started to wonder if it was more than just a slump, like maybe he’s just not that good. However, in the month of August, he has 3 homeruns, 10 RBIs, 11 runs scored, 5 stolen bases and a slash line of .294/.326/.494. That’s about in line with his career numbers. If he can keep that up out of the 6 hole with the top 5 doing what they’re doing, the Red Sox are going to be very, very tough to stop offensively.

Rounding out their lineup 7-8-9, the hitters aren’t as impressive. However, they do have a good platoon at catcher in the bottom of their lineup. Catcher was a weakness coming into the season. Jason Varitek couldn’t hit. Jarrod Saltalamacchia didn’t have the support of the pitching staff. However, the two of them have morphed into a very impressive duo behind the plate with Varitek catching two pitchers (normally Beckett and whichever pitcher is starting on a day the Red Sox face a lefty), and Salty catching the other 3.

Both have embraced their roles, Varitek as the old gun, Saltalamacchia as the young kid with a lot to learn. Both have done a great job with the pitching staff, especially Varitek who has helped revitalize Josh Beckett’s career. The two combine to throw out 26% of stolen base attempts, good for 18th in the league. That might not look great, but remember Victor Martinez threw out roughly -5% of all runners in his time in Boston.

They even hit. The two combine for a slash line of .242/302/.450. That might not look great, but remember we’re living in the dead era of offensive catchers, especially with Buster Posey hurt and Joe Mauer struggling. Saltytek’s OPS of .752 would rank 7th in the majors if they were one player, right in between Russell Martin and AJ Pierzynski.

That platoon is the most successful platoon on Boston’s roster, with the other platoon being in right field. Rookie Josh Reddick starts against righties but Mike Aviles and Darnell McDonald split time in right against lefties. Both Aviles and McDonald also will play left and/or center from time to time against lefties as both Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford are left handed. Reddick looked like a gift from God when he was called up following JD Drew’s injury, but the rookie now looks more like a rookie, batting .236 since the All-Star break and .212 in the month of August.

Aviles, meanwhile, hits lefties at a .304 clip and can play anywhere on the field except pitcher and catcher, but he’s limited by a .205 batting average versus righties. Darnell McDonald is still on the roster despite a .198 batting average. His “specialty” is lefties, against whom he hits a whopping .223. Their struggles in right field since the break have some even excited for the pending return of JD Drew, something I never thought possible.

Rounding out the order is Marco Scutaro. Scutaro has been a butcher in the field this year, but his OPS of .713 would rank 7th in the American League if he had enough at bats to qualify. He sometimes gets the day off for Jed Lowrie, who can also play anywhere. Lowrie started the season off hot with an OPS of .962 for the first month of the season, but he spent a lot of time on the DL and really cooled off. His OPS now sits at .701.

Offensively, this team is set. They have the best top 5 in baseball, as well as legitimate MVP candidates in their top 3. #6 Carl Crawford is heating up and they get decent play from the bottom of their order, which changes with regularity. However, the starting rotation is the worry point for the team. Josh Beckett and Jon Lester have pitched extremely well, but John Lackey didn’t have the bounce back year he was supposed to, in fact, he got much, much worse, while Clay Buchholz has been out since mid-June with a back injury. Dice-K got hurt so long ago that I just momentarily forgot he existed.

Erik Bedard was our deadline acquisition from Seattle. He was supposed to become our #3 starter after news broke that Buchholz could be done for the season, but he’s had 1 quality start in 4 tries with an ERA of 4.09 and a win-loss record of 0-2. Tim Wakefield is always nice to have around, but we’ve seen way too much of him for Red Sox fans to be comfortable with our starting rotation situation. Andrew Miller has a nice 6-1 record, but only recently got to the point where he had more strikeouts than walks.

Beckett is set as our #1. Had he pitched as many innings as Verlander, Sabathia, and Weaver (32+ fewer than each of those 3), we’d be talking about him as a potential Cy Young candidate along with that trio. His ERA of 2.43 and WHIP of 0.97, along with an 11-5 record, certainly rival Verlander, Sabathia, and Weaver and I think he’s still the 4th best pitcher in the AL this year. If he’s your ace, you’re in good shape. I trust him to go toe to toe with Sabathia and Verlander in the postseason and maybe Weaver if the Angels make it that far. He’s got a great track record in the postseason to boot.

Detroit, New York, and the Angels might have the better aces, but we’ve owned CC (0-4 7.20 in 4 starts this season) and we have a better #2 than any of those 3 with the exception of the Angels, who might not make the playoffs. If Texas wins the West, we have the AL’s best #2 in the postseason. Jon Lester is 13-6 with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP.

Meanwhile, who is the #2 in New York has been a popular question since the season began and right now there are only two answers, AJ Burnett, but not the kind of #2 your thinking of, and Bartolo Colon…probably, assuming the stem cell therapy the 38-year-old Colon had on his elbow in the offseason continues to work its magic. In Detroit, I don’t even think they have anything close to an answer at #2. The starter with the 2nd lowest ERA on that team is Max Scherzer, who has an ERA of 4.21. The only way they win a series in the playoffs is either a miracle and/or Justin Verlander pitching 4 times in a 5 game series.

However, after the top 2, that’s where the questions begin for Boston. I tried talking myself into John Lackey and his freshly under 6 ERA as our #3 starter and this is what I came up with. Lackey was terrible to start the season, but he’s 6-1 with a 4.65 ERA since the break and if turn a blind eye to the 78 base runners in 50.1 innings he’s allowed since the break, that looks almost, sort of, maybe decent, right? He’s also proven in the postseason and for whatever reason the Red Sox offense always scores a kajillion runs when he’s on the mound. Despite his 5.98 ERA, he has a 12-9 record. That has to count for something right? Right? All in all, I’d be more comfortable if I was trying to talk myself into him as a #4. Buchholz might be back for the playoffs and in that case, he’d be our #3 and Lackey the likely #4.

Erik Bedard was the Red Sox big deadline acquisition. He could be our #3 if Buchholz can’t go, but I think it’s more likely that he becomes the #4 if Buchholz can’t go. Bedard, however, hasn’t been great since coming over from Seattle and he’s so injury prone that I think it might be best off if we put him into a glass case until October just in case. Wakefield is the other option, but I think he’s a real long shot with a 6-5 record with a 5.04 ERA. Andrew Miller, 39 strikeouts to 32 walks, is an even longer shot.

The bullpen, a major problem in 2010, is a major strength this season. Gone are the days when I would frequently send friends “I hate our bullpen” texts after it had blown up. After blowing a major league leading 8 saves in 2010, Papelbon has blown just 1 save this season in 30 tries this season. The bridge to Papelbon has also been very strong. Both Alfredo Aceves and Daniel Bard have been very close to sure things with 2.96 and 2.10 ERAs respectively. They also have 3 other guys you can go to war with in Dan Wheeler, Franklin Morales, and Matt Albers. They have ERAs of 3.89, 3.54, and 3.72 respectively.

To this point, I think the Red Sox are the favorites in the AL. They’re on a serious sustained groove right now going 63-30 in their last 93. They are 10-2 against the Yankees, 5-1 against Detroit, and 6-2 against the Angels. They may be 3-4 against the Rangers, but they are just coming off of taking 3 of 4 from them. They were swept earlier this season by the Rangers, but that was their first series of the season when they were a completely different team in terms of their level of play. I’d feel more comfortable if Buchholz were to come back by the playoffs, but they’re my pick out of the AL.

As for the World Series, I think the Red Sox would have to be considered underdogs to the Phillies. The Phillies are 83-45 right now. They have the league’s best pitching staff and have gotten better offensively over the course of the season with Chase Utley back and Hunter Pence coming in. They took 2 of 3 from the Red Sox earlier this season and will have home field advantage in the World Series. However, there’s a lot that can happen. The Phillies aren’t necessarily a lock to come out of the NL and I think the Red Sox match up very well with every team other than the Phillies. As a Red Sox fan, the only team right now I legitimately would fear facing is the Phillies.

This time it counts

The fact that an exhibition game decides home field advantage in the playoffs is ridiculous. The last 8 World Series game 7s have been won by the home team. No World Series’ have gone 7 games since this rule was instated in 2003, but that’s doesn’t mean that one can’t as soon as this year. There are much better things baseball can use to decide the location of game 7, including individual team record or which league had the best interleague record. An exhibition game where a good amount of players aren’t even on contending teams should never be allowed to potentially decide the outcome of the World Series. Making this rule even worse is that fact that…

One player from each team must be included

As of today, 11 teams (Toronto, Baltimore, Kansas City, Oakland, NY Mets, Washington, Florida, Chicago Cubs, Houston, LA Dodgers, and San Diego) are at least 10 games out of a playoff spot. If one player from each team must be included, that is guaranteeing that 11 of the 68 (16%) All-Star participants are nowhere near the playoffs and probably couldn’t care less which team gets home field. And even if the All-Star game stopped deciding home field advantage, this would still be a stupid rule. All-Stars should be the best players in each league regardless of team. If your team sucks and has no players worthy of being called All-Stars, then you shouldn’t get any. It cheapens what it means to be an All-Star. Also cheapening what it means to be an All-Star is the fact that…

Rosters consist of 34 players

What other sport significantly increases the size of their roster for an All-Star game. There is no need for 34 man rosters. Bring them back to traditional 25 man rosters, 12 man pitching staffs, 12 hitters, and one pitcher/hitter decided by the fan’s “last vote.” I see the need for large pitching staffs (currently 14). Pitchers arms are fragile and asking any one pitcher to go more than 2 innings in an exhibition game is ridiculous. However, why do we need so many hitters? Hitters can play 9 innings in the field and be ready to go for their team’s first game in 2-3 days. The game uses a DH no matter what stadium it’s played in. Why do we need so many pinch hitters? Another problem with the All-Star game is that...

Guys can skip

How spoiled do you have to be to skip this? You've been named one of the greatest players in the league, and you're just like "nah." I understand injuries, but even if you're injured, you should at least have to show up. This game is for the fans. The fans want to see you. If it wasn't for the fans, you wouldn't be making millions of dollars. You should show up. If you're injured, you don't have to play and you can be replaced on the roster, but you at least have to show up. This would force the guys who are healthy, but don't want to show up to at least show up and then at that point they might as well actually play in the game. That would drastically cut down on the players skipping despie being healthy. Then we'd need fewer replacements and there would be fewer All-Stars and being an All-Star wouldn't be cheapened. Further cheapening what it means to be an All-Star is the fact that…

If you pitched Sunday, you can’t pitch in the game

How about we let the players (with the help of their individual teams) decide this one. Pitchers aren’t going to go more than an inning or two so even if you pitched 6-7 innings two days ago, pitchers should be ok throwing an inning or two in an All-Star game. Pitchers typically have a bullpen session on this day anyway. At least let them decide whether or not they want to play. Currently, between 34 man rosters, and the 8 or so replacements we need for pitchers who pitch Sunday plus players who skip the All-Star game for various reasons, we have about 42 players per league being named All-Stars. 30 teams, 25 man rosters, that means there’s about 750 players in the major leagues. You’re telling me 84 of them (11.2%) should be All-Stars. That really cheapens what “All-Star” means. Cut rosters to 25, you’ll probably need about 4 replacements for guys who skip for various reasons (including that they pitched Sunday), that’s 58 all-stars, about 7.7% of the league. That sounds about right. Of course, cutting rosters to 25 might lead to some complications in extra innings which is why we could no longer allow…

Games that go into extra innings

It’s in exhibition game anyway. It doesn’t decide home field any more. Why not make it fun and decide ties like soccer and hockey, only instead of a sudden death shoot out, it’s a homerun derby. People love the homerun derby. Why not have ties in an all-star game decided by that. Each team nominates one player (regardless of whether or not he’s been removed from the game) to hit and one person (either another player, or a coach, or someone) to throw him batting practice. Each team gets 10 balls, whoever hits the most of the ten out wins (balls not swung at don’t count). If further tiebreakers are needed, another player must step up and compete only this team with 5 balls. There won’t be any major added risk of injury or messing up your swing with something like this. Guys do things like this all the time in batting practice before games. No one is taking more than 10 swings, whereas in the homerun derby, the winner often takes 55-65 swings. 

There is always a lot of talk around this time about a potential Homerun Derby curse where a player who wins the Homerun Derby messes up his swing for the second half. The talk mostly comes from fans, but also recently it has been coming from the players, players like Albert Pujols who don’t want to compete. There have certainly been several prominent cases where a player has had a significantly worse 2nd half after winning or doing extremely well in the Derby (Josh Hamilton, Bobby Abreu), but, overall, is there a trend, or are there just a few cases we all remember? Let’s look at everyone who has won the Derby, as well as those players who did well in the Derby but did not win, since 2000. We’ll call 20 homeruns good.

2000

Sammy Sosa- 1st place 26

Pre all-star: .305 batting average 23 homeruns/338 at bats (1/14.7)

Post all-star: .338 batting average 27 homeruns/266 at bats (1/9.9)

Verdict: Significantly better 2nd half

Comments: None

2001

Luis Gonzalez- 1st place 16

Pre-all star: .355 batting average 35 homeruns/330 at bats (1/9.4)

Post-all star: .290 batting average 22 homeruns/279 at bats (1/12.7)

Verdict: Significantly worse 2nd half

Comments: None

Jason Giambi- 3rd place 20 (14 first round)

Pre-all star: .322 batting average 19 homeruns/283 at bats (1/14.9)

Post-all star: .367 batting average 19 homeruns/237 at bats (1/12.5)

Verdict: Significantly better 2nd half

Comments: None

2002

Jason Giambi- 1st place 24

Pre-all star: .318 batting average 22 homeruns/314 at bats (1/14.3)

Post-all star: .309 batting average 19 homeruns/246 at bats (1/12.9)

Verdict: Slightly better 2nd half

Comments: BA dropped a slight bit, but I think the increase in power is a little bit better than the dip in batting average

2003

Garret Anderson- 1st place 22

Pre-all star: .316 batting average 22 homeruns/370 at bats (1/16.8 )

Post-all star: .313 batting average 7 homeruns/268 at bats (1/38.3)

Verdict: Significantly worse 2nd half

Comments: Not actually as bad as it looks. Anderson was never a big power hitter and some of the difference we see here can be attributed to Anderson hitting 12 homeruns in June of 2003. That being said, it is hard to ignore those mere 7 homeruns.

Albert Pujols- 2nd place 26 (14 2nd round)

Pre-all star: .368 batting average 27 homeruns/348 at bats (1/12.9)

Post-all star: .346 batting average 16 homeruns/243 at bats(1/15.2)

Verdict: Slightly worse 2nd half

Comments: A tough one here, but if you hit a homerun in every 15 at bats and have a batting average of .346, it’s hard to say the Derby significantly hurt you, even if your BA did drop 22 points and your homeruns slowed down by a rate of 2.3 at bats.

Jason Giambi- 3rd place 23 (12 1st round)

Pre-all star: .267 batting average 26 homeruns/318 at bats (1/12.2)

Post-all star: .226 batting average 15 homeruns/217 at bats (1/14.7)

Verdict: Significantly worse 2nd half

Comments: Another tough one, the power didn’t really drop, but that .227 BA is ugly. I gave Pujols a slightly so I’ll give Giambi a significantly worse in this borderline call to make it fair.

2004

Miguel Tejada- 1st place 27

Pre-all star: .311 batting average 15 homeruns/344 at bats (1/22.9)

Post-all star: .311 batting average 19 homeruns/309 at bats (1/16.3)

Verdict: Slightly better 2nd half

Comments: None

Lance Berkman- 2nd place 21 (10 2nd round)

Pre-all star: .299 batting average 16 homeruns/284 at bats (1/17.8 )

Post-all star: .335 batting average 14 homeruns/260 at bats (1/18.6)

Verdict: Slightly better 2nd half

Comments: Power dropped a bit, but the 36 point increase in batting average counters that.

2005

Bobby Abreu- 1st place 41

Pre-all star: .307 batting average 18 homeruns/323 at bats (1/17.9)

Post-all star: .260 batting average 6 homeruns/265 at bats (1/44.2)

Verdict: Significantly worse 2nd half

Comments: Simply put, he sucked. There’s a reason he’s the poster child for the “Derby Curse.”

Ivan Rodriguez- 2nd place 20 (8 2nd round)

Pre-all star: .292 batting average 6 homeruns/292 at bats (1/48.7)

Post-all star: .252 batting average 8 homeruns/208 at bats (1/26)

Verdict: Slightly worse 2nd half

Comments: Another borderline one, his average dropped pretty significantly, but the power did pick up. However, Pudge has never been a homerun hitter and even when the power picked up, it didn’t pick up to the one where he was hitting a homerun every 15-20 at bats.

David Ortiz- 3rd place 20 (17 1st round)

Pre-all star: .314 batting average 21 homeruns/328 at bats (1/15.6)

Post-all star: .282 batting average 26 homeruns/273 at bats (1/10.5)

Verdict: Slightly better 2nd half

Comments: Another borderline one, the BA dropped, but the power went up significantly and since this is ultimately a homerun derby, I’d say the derby helped his swing. Papi’s never been a big BA guy either.

2006

Ryan Howard- 1st place 23

Pre-all star: .278 batting average 28 homeruns/316 at bats (1/11.3)

Post-all star: .355 batting average 30 homeruns/265 at bats (1/8.8 )

Verdict: Significantly better 2nd half

Comments: The anti-Bobby Abreu. This guy destroyed the baseball in the 2nd half.

David Wright- 2nd place 22 (16 1st round)

Pre-all star: .316 batting average 20 homeruns/339 at bats (1/17.0)

Post-all star: .305 average 6 homeruns/243 at bats (1/40.5)

Verdict: Significantly worse 2nd half

Comments: None

2007

Vladimir Guerrero- 1st place 17

Pre-all star: .325 batting average 14 homeruns/311 at bats (1/22.2)

Post-all star: .323 batting average 13 homeruns/263 at bats (1/20.2)

Verdict: Slightly better 2nd half

Comments: The increase in power by a rate of 2 at bats makes up for the 2 point drop in BA, which isn’t really anything.

2008

Justin Morneau- 1st place 22

Pre-all star: .323 batting average 14 homeruns/365 at bats (1/26.1)

Post-all star: .267 batting average 9 homeruns/258 at bats (1/28.7)

Verdict: Significantly worse 2nd half

Comments: A tough one, but it is hard to ignore a drop in BA of 56 points, even if the power didn’t get too much worse.

Josh Hamilton 2nd place 35 (28 1st round)

Pre-all star: .310 batting average 21 homeruns/377 at bats (1/18.0)

Post-all star: .297 batting average 11 homeruns/247 at bats (1/22.5)

Verdict: Slightly worse 2nd half

Comments: This may be controversial since Hamilton is hyped as having a horrible 2nd half, but the numbers don’t lie, 13 point BA drop isn’t horrible and neither is the drop in power from one every 18 to one every 22.5. This is also a slightly makeup call to balance the borderline slightly/significantly with Justin Morneau.

2009

Prince Fielder 1st place 23

Pre-all star: .315 batting average 22 homeruns/308 at bats (1/14)

Post-all star: .283 batting average 24 homeruns/283 at bats (1/11.8 )

Verdict: Slightly better 2nd half

Comments: The batting average did drop, but Prince has never been a BA guy and the power in his 2nd half was pretty amazing. When a guy hits a homerun in every 11.8 at bats in the 2nd half, you can’t really say the derby hurt him.

Nelson Cruz 2nd place 21 (11 1st round)

Pre-all star: .263 batting average 22 homeruns/297 at bats (1/13.5)

Post-all star: .255 batting average 11 homeruns/165 at bats (1/15)

Verdict: Slightly worse 2nd half

Comments: Cruz actually saw a decrease in playing time in the 2nd half, but he didn’t produce too much differently when he did play.

2010

David Ortiz 1st place 32

Pre-all star: .263 batting average 18 homeruns/251 at bats (1/13.9)

Post all-star: .277 batting average 14 homeruns/267 at bats (1/19.1)

Verdict: Slightly worse 2nd half

Comments: This was a tough one because his batting average had a noticeable increase, but his power had a noticeable decrease. That said, Papi is supposed to hit for power so I'll say slightly worse.

Hanley Ramirez 2nd place 26 (12 2nd round)

Pre-all star: .301 batting average 13 homeruns/326 at bats (1/25.1)

Post-all star: .300 batting average 8 homeruns/217 at bats (1/27.1)

Verdict: Slightly worse 2nd half

Comments: none

Totals:

Significantly worse: 6

Slightly worse: 6

Slightly better: 6

Significantly better: 3

I think these numbers really suggest that there isn’t a ton going on in terms of a Derby Curse. Yes, more players had worse stats than better (12 to 9) and more players had significantly worse stats than significantly better (6 to 3), but the numbers don’t really jump out at you like you would expect. Yopu also have to consider that players probably do a little worse in the 2nd half anyway, with their bodies tiring, so that may be the reason for part of the slight difference in statistical production we are seeing.

Adrian Beltre over Kevin Youkilis

Ron Washington is the manager for the AL team so this could be a classic case for favoritism, choosing his own guy over someone more deserving. However, it’s possible he was just looking at the wrong stats. Beltre has more HRs and RBIs than Youk (14 and 61 to 11 and 56), but those stats aren’t far enough apart to justify taking Beltre over Youk when Youk’s OPS is 100 points higher (.869 to .769).

Michael Young

This might be more favoritism. Michael Young is a fine player and if he had been a middle infielder still, Young’s 7 homeruns with 54 RBIs and an OPS of .811 would have made him a deserving All-Star. However, Young is a DH now, with 189 of his 329 at bats coming as a DH. If Ron Washington wanted another DH on his team, Victor Martinez and his 6 homeruns, 46 RBIs, and OPS of .873 would have made him the more deserving choice. Another position player like Jhonny Peralta (14/48/.896), Mark Teixeira (25/65/.892), or Paul Konerko (21/62/.954) would have worked as well.

Only 2 AL 1B

Speaking of Teixeira and Konerko, how did only 2 AL 1B make the team. Cabrera and Gonzalez made it, but with 4 AL 1B with OPS of .892, you could justify all 4 making the team. I think the team needed at least 3 (I give Konerko the edge over Teixeira because of his OPS). You want these guys available to hit in a close game down the stretch.

Tyler Clippard as Washington’s only All-Star

I thought Washington deserved at least 3 All-Stars, if not 4. First baseman Michael Morse ranked 4th among NL 1B in OPS (.887), 5th in homeruns (15), and 5th in RBIs (46). He was only 2 points behind Todd Helton in OPS and he had 6 more homeruns and 8 more RBIs than Helton. I think Fielder should have been the starter (he is), Joey Votto should start as a DH (TBA), and then Morse and Gaby Sanchez (the token Marlin) would make the team as 1st basemen off the bench.

Danny Espinosa ranked 2nd among 2nd basemen in OPS (.796) 23 points higher than Brandon Phillips, who made the team as the reserve 2nd baseman. He also has 7 more homeruns (15 to 8 ) and 3 more RBIs (48 to 45) than Phillips. Jordan Zimmerman was 5th in the NL in ERA, yet didn’t make it as a pitcher over guys like Matt Cain (13th), Tim Lincecum (14th), and Clayton Kershaw (19th). Drew Storen could have made a case as a reliever, converting 20 of 23 saves with an ERA of 2.76 and a WHIP of 0.97.

Tyler Clippard is a nice middle reliever (1.96 ERA and 0.87 WHIP), but I don’t like middle relievers being All-Stars and there were 4 more deserving All-Stars on his own team. The fact that Washington only got one All-Star and this was that one is ridiculous.

Jay Bruce/Carlos Beltran over Andrew McCutchen/Shane Victorino

Andrew McCutchen and Shane Victorino rank 6th and 4th in the NL in OPS respectively. Both stole double digit bases, 15 and 13 respectively. Yet Jay Bruce and Carlos Beltran, who rank 14th and 9th respectively in OPS got the nod, despite combining for 9 stolen bases (6 by Bruce, 3 by Beltran).

Derek Jeter starting

Derek Jeter has an OPS of .649 with only 2 homeruns and 20 RBIs. He’s also missed 17 games, which, by the way, the Yankees have won 14 of. The Yankees are 14-3 WITHOUT him. His replacement, Eduardo Nunez has a higher OPS (.754) and more homeruns (3) in 147 fewer at bats. Jhonny Peralta (14/488/.896) would have been a much better selection. Peralta has better stats than Asdrubal Cabrera (14/49/.839), who deservingly made the team as a reserve.

Placido Polanco starting

Polanco’s OPS of .689 was 5th in the NL among qualified 3rd basemen. He only had 4 homeruns and 39 RBIs as well. Aramis Ramirez (11/42/.806), Ryan Roberts (10/33/.768), Chipper Jones (7/44/.762), and Chase Headley (2/29/.809) all would have been more worthy All-Stars. I don’t think Polanco should have even been on the team. Ramirez should have started and the hometown kid Roberts should be the reserve.

4 Giants pitchers

Brian Wilson, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, and Ryan Vogelsong all made the team as pitchers from the Giants. Not coincidentally, the NL manager is Bruce Bochy. Brian Wilson definitely deserved it, leading the majors in saves. He’s a huge part of the reason why the Giants are 12 games over .500 despite a mere +14 run differential. Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum are on the borderline, ranking 13th and 14th in ERA respectively.

Vogelsong is also on the borderline depending on how you feel about All-Stars who would be 2nd in the league in ERA, but don’t qualify for the ERA title because they didn’t make their first start until April 28th. I don’t think the Giants deserved to get all 3 borderline All-Stars. They deserved one or two. That would have freed up spots for guys like Tommy Hanson and Jordan Zimmerman who rank 4th and 5th in ERA respectively.

No Michael Pineda

The Mariners got two pitchers, but neither of them were rookie phenom Michael Pineda. Instead, King Felix and Brandon League made the team. League deserved it, converting 21 of 24 saves with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP, but Pineda deserved it more than either of them. Pineda’s ERA is 7/10 of a run lower then King Felix’s era (2.65 to 3.35). Felix isn’t even top 3 in his own pitching rotation in ERA behind Pineda, Erik Bedard (back from the dead), and Doug Fister.

Aaron Crow over Alex Gordon

The Royals only got one All-Star and they deserved only one All-Star, but the wrong one got the nod. Aaron Crow is a middle reliever who has nice stats, 1.36 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, but how he is worth an All-Star bid if he’s not even the closer on a team where the closer has only converted 13 of 18. Alex Gordon, meanwhile, looks like an actual All-Star, ranking 6th among All-Stars in OPS (.856). He also has 10 homeruns and 46 RBIs.

David Price over Philip Humber

I know Price is the bigger name, but Humber has a significantly lower ERA (2.69 to 3.43) and a lower WHIP (0.98 to 1.05). Humber is 7th in ERA. Price is 24th. It’s not even close.

My Final Vote nominees (selection in bold)

AL

3B Kevin Youkilis (Boston)

1B Paul Konerko (CHI Sox)

SS Jhonny Peralta (Detroit)

RHP Philip Humber (CHI Sox)

RHP Michael Pineda (Seattle)

NL

OF Shane Victorino (Philadelphia)

1B Michael Morse (Washington)

OF Andrew McCutchen (Pittsburgh)

RHP Tommy Hanson (Atlanta)

RHP Jordan Zimmerman (Washington)

AL

C Alex Avila (Detroit)

C Carlos Santana (Cleveland)

C Matt Wieters (Baltimore)

1B Adrian Gonzalez (Boston)

1B Miguel Cabrera (Detroit)

1B Paul Konerko (CHI Sox)

1B Mark Teixeira (NY Yankees)

2B Robinson Cano (NY Yankees)

2B Howie Kendrick (LA Angels)

SS Jhonny Peralta (Detroit)

SS Asdrubal Cabrera (Cleveland)

3B Kevin Youkilis (Boston)

3B Alex Rodriguez (NY Yankees)

OF Jose Bautista (Toronto)

OF Curtis Granderson (NY Yankees)

OF Carlos Quentin (CHI Sox)

OF Matt Joyce (Tampa Bay)

OF Alex Gordon (Kansas City)

OF Jason Kubel (Minnesota)

DH David Ortiz (Boston)

DH Victor Martinez (Detroit)

SP Justin Verlander (Detroit)

SP Jered Weaver (LA Angels)

SP Josh Beckett (Boston)

SP Philip Humber (CHI Sox)

SP Michael Pineda (Seattle)

SP Gio Gonzalez (Oakland)

SP Alexi Ogando (Texas)

SP Dan Haren (LA Angels)

RP Mariano Rivera (NY Yankees)

RP Jose Valverde (Detroit)

RP Kyle Farnsworth (Tampa Bay)

RP Chris Perez (Cleveland)

RP Sergio Santos (CHI Sox)

NL

C Brian McCann (Atlanta)

C Miguel Montero (Arizona)

C Yadier Molina (St. Louis)

1B Prince Fielder (Milwaukee)

1B Michael Morse (Washington)

1B Gaby Sanchez (Florida)

1B Todd Helton (Colorado)

2B Rickie Weeks (Milwaukee)

2B Danny Espinosa (Washington)

SS Jose Reyes (NY Mets)

SS Troy Tulowitzki (Colorado)

3B Ryan Roberts (Arizona)

3B Aramis Ramirez (CHI Cubs)

OF Matt Kemp (LA Dodgers)

OF Lance Berkman (St. Louis)

OF Ryan Braun (Milwaukee)

OF Justin Upton (Arizona)

OF Shane Victorino (Philadelphia)

OF Hunter Pence (Houston)

DH Joey Votto (St. Louis)

SP Roy Halladay (Philadelphia)

SP Cole Hamels (Philadelphia)

SP Clayton Kershaw (LA Dodgers)

SP Cliff Lee (Philadelphia)

SP Jair Jurrjens (Atlanta)

SP Tommy Hanson (Atlanta)

SP Jordan Zimmerman (Washington)

SP Shawn Marcum (Milwaukee)

SP Tim Lincecum (San Francisco)

RP Joel Hanrahan (Pittsburgh)

RP Heath Bell (San Diego)

RP Brian Wilson (San Francisco)

RP Drew Storen (Washington)

RP JJ Putz (Arizona)

Albert Pujols is set to become a free agent after the 2011 MLB season. His noon deadline on February the 16th has come and gone. Pujols maintains a policy that he will not discuss contracts midseason, so it’s not a distraction, and I fully believe him when he says that. He also says he will use his full no-trade clause to block any mid-season trade, and, again, I fully believe him when he says that. This means, Pujols will be a free agent after this season and if he leaves, the only compensation the Cardinals will get will be two draft picks.

The Cardinals are being unnecessarily cheap here. Is he worth the 300 million dollars over 10 years he wants? Maybe. Maybe not. If anyone is, it’s him, and even if he isn’t, they should still give it to him. He’s Albert Pujols. He’s the face of that franchise. He’s the best player in the league, a perennial MVP candidate in the NL like Peyton Manning is in the NFL. He already took one paycut to stay with the team, signing an 8 year 116 million dollar contract in 2003 that left him extremely underpaid. Now it’s time for him to get his money.

If he signs with a big market this offseason, fans will be pissed, especially if it’s Boston or New York. But they shouldn’t be pissed at the Sox or the Yankees or the Mets, or even the Cubs or the White Sox. They should be pissed at the Cardinals. They had their opportunity. They blew it.

As for fans of any other team in the league other than the Cardinals, this day is great. This is like when that one extremely hot girl breaks up with her boyfriend. Everyone thinks they have a chance, even if they don’t (Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Baltimore) and even if she’ll probably end up back with her original boyfriend (St. Louis) at the end of it.

Even as a Red Sox fan, I hope he does resign with the Cardinals. I hope they realize that he’s worth all that money, as the face of the franchise and someone who’s taken a paycut before, and give him what he deserves. If he doesn’t, as much as I’d like to see him come to Boston to DH, I think the most likely destination for him is Chicago. He could help the Cubs win the 2012 World Series and shortly afterwards, doomsday 2012 would happen and the world would end. I mean if the world really ends in 2012, it’s going to take something like the Cubs winning the World Series to do it. Right?

1. Boston Red Sox

The Good: They won 89 games last year despite being raped by injuries. They add Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez to their lineup as upgrades over Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez.

The Bad: Who is the closer? Jonathan Papelbon led the league in blown saves last year, but he keeps the job into this season. How many saves will he have to blow to lose the job to either Bobby Jenks or Daniel Bard?

2. Philadelphia Phillies

The Good: A surprise move to sign Cliff Lee gives them 4 legitimate front line starters in the rotation with Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels to compliment their lineup, which was 7th in the league in runs scored last year.

The Bad: Brad Lidge at the end of the ‘pen is always questionable and they don’t have the Red Sox bullpen depth. Jayson Werth is gone. Can Dominic Brown and Ben Francisco replace him?

3. New York Yankees

The Good: Their #1 ranked lineup from 2010 is still intact and Rafael Soriano gives them a talented, high paid bridge to Mariano Rivera.

The Bad: The only starting pitcher who isn’t a question mark is CC Sabathia. Phil Hughes has never had a sub 4 ERA. AJ Burnett had an ERA in the 5s last year. Their #4 and #5 starters are still unknown.

4. San Francisco Giants

The Good: With the exception of replacing Juan Uribe with Miguel Tejada, their 2010 World Series winning team is almost completely intact. Pablo Sandoval’s weight loss as fans believing he can produce like he did in 2009.

The Bad: Last year’s win is widely regarded as a fluke and both the Red Sox and the Phillies have drastically improved this offseason. The last team to repeat as champions was the 2000 Yankees.

5. Chicago White Sox

The Good: Adam Dunn gives them what Manny Ramirez was supposed to give them, another bat to go with Paul Konerko in the middle of that lineup. A healthy Jake Peavy could help their rotation in a big way.

The Bad: Losing Bobby Jenks left their bullpen awfully thin. Paul Konerko is 35 and Adam Dunn has never played in the AL.

6. St. Louis Cardinals

The Good: Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Jake Westbrook, and Jaime Garcia might be the most talented pitching rotation they’ve had in the Dave Duncan era and Duncan’s done a lot more with a lot less before.

The Bad: Other than Pujols and Holliday, their lineup is pretty thin. They thought John Jay was good enough to replace Ryan Ludwick, who they sent to San Diego at the deadline in 2010. He wasn’t and now they’re relying on Lance Berkman. The Pujols contract situtation could be distracting.

7. Los Angeles Angels

The Good: With the exception of last year, this team always finds a way to win the division and I can’t imagine them losing it twice in a row. Vernon Wells might be expensive, but he gives them a much needed bat and a full season of Dan Haren helps their cause.

The Bad: Kendry Morales might not be ready for the start of the season and Scott Kazmir is a huge question mark in their starting rotation. What’s their fallback plan?

8. Cincinnati Reds

The Good: They won the division in surprise runaway fashion last season, leading the NL in runs and could take the next step this season.

The Bad: Young teams that could take the next step often don’t. It’s called a sophomore slump. Also, who is the stopper in their rotation?

9. Atlanta Braves

The Good: Jason Heyward has a full year under his belt and Dan Uggla gives them another power bat in the middle of their lineup. They can still pitch with the best of them

The Bad: Bobby Cox is gone and he was the best at making something out of nothing. Can this team continue their surprise 2010 run without him?

10. Los Angeles Dodgers

The Good: They stole Juan Uribe from the Giants and their young pitching staff should continue to improve. A full season of Ted Lilly as the #3 starter helps.

The Bad: Their offense might be relying too much on the health of Rafael Furcal and Andre Either, as well as a bounce back year from Matt Kemp.

11. Oakland Athletics

The Good: On paper they have the same formula as the 2010 Giants, great young pitching staff and a patchwork offense of overachievers, adding my favorite underrated player, Josh Willingham, to the mix, as well as David DeJesus and Hideki Matsui.

The Bad: Other than the 2010 Giants, when has that formula ever worked?

12. Minnesota Twins

The Good: Ron Gardenhire is still the best coach in the AL and perennially makes something out of nothing. Justin Morneau missed half of last season and they still won the division. Now he’s back.

The Bad: The White Sox are better and Carl Pavano seems to be only good in contract years. Is he still going to have an ace like season now that he’s gotten paid?

13. Milwaukee Brewers

The Good: Zach Grienke gives their starting rotation much needed life and he moves to an easier league to pitch in.

The Bad: Prince Fielder is a free agent after the season and Rickie Weeks is a potential one year wonder candidate.

14. Texas Rangers

The Good: This team made the World Series last year and they still have AL MVP Josh Hamilton.

The Bad: Cliff Lee’s gone. Vladimir Guerrero is gone. Michael Young has been chased to DH, where he might split time with Mike Napoli. Adrian Beltre is only good in contract years. They overacheived last year.

15. Tampa Bay Rays

The Good: They still have one of the league’s best young pitching staffs. They also have Evan Longoria and potential bounce back years from Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez.

The Bad: Carl Crawford is gone. Carlos Pena is gone. Rafael Soriano is gone. Joaquin Benoit is gone. The Yankees and Red Sox aren’t. They got the 2011 versions of Manny and Johnny Damon, not the 2004 versions.

16. Colorado Rockies

The Good: Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez are locked up longterm and this team always seems to make a run at the division late, even last year when they came up short. Oh, and of course, Ubaldo Jimenez is pretty decent.

The Bad: Jorge De La Rosa was overpaid. He’s not a #2 starter. Their #3-#5 starters are even more questionable. Todd Helton might be on his last legs.

17. Detroit Tigers

The Good: After finishing sub .500 last year, they broke open their paychecks to add Victor Martinez and Joaquin Benoit.

The Bad: Martinez is a DH who has never topped 25 homeruns and Benoit is a setup man who has only gone under an ERA of 3 twice in his career at age 33.

18. New York Mets

The Good: Maybe Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Johan Santana, Oliver Perez, and Jason Bay will all stay healthy and play up to their contracts.

The Bad: They probably won’t.

19. Houston Texans

The Good: They were one of the NL’s best teams after the trade deadline, with young talent flourishing after Berkman and Oswalt were traded.

The Bad: Playing well when you’re out of it is one thing. Playing well when you’re expected to do good things is something completely different, especially for young players. On paper, they look pretty bad.

20. Florida Marlins

The Good: They always seem to win the World Series just when you least expect it and this year, no one’s expecting it.

The Bad: There’s a reason no one’s expecting it. Dan Uggla is gone leaving their lineup thin after Hanley Ramirez and 2nd year outfielder Mike Stanton.

21. Chicago Cubs

The Good: After a 24-13 finish to last season, Mike Quade could be the manager that finally wins the World Series with the Cubs.

The Bad: The last 48 managers failed. Why wouldn’t Quade? Carlos Pena and Matt Garza help, but they’ll need Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Zambrano to play up to their paycheck to even have a shot at the division.

22. San Diego Padres

The Good: Their young pitching staff is still intact and they allowed the fewest runs in the league last year.

The Bad: Gonzo is Gonzo so as bizarre as them ranking 22nd in runs last year and still almost winning the division was, doing the same this year with Gonzo would be ten times more bizarre. The strength of their pitching staff was their bullpen and bullpens are notriously streaky from year to year.

23. Toronto Blue Jays

The Good: They had 48 more homeruns than any other team in the league last year.

The Bad: Does anyone really think Jose Bautista hits 54 homeruns again? His previous career high was 16 and he’s 30 years old. Vernon Wells’ contract may be gone, but so is Vernon Wells’ bat. Their pitching wasn’t very good last year and I don’t see it improving having lost Shawn Marcum.

24. Baltimore Orioles

The Good: Vladimir Guerrero represents their most high profiled signing in years!

The Bad: A 36 year old Vladimir Guerrero represents their most high profiled signing in years…

25. Washington Nationals

The Good: They opened the checkbooks to sign Jayson Werth. Bryce Harper could be up by the summer.

The Bad: They could have just resigned Josh Willingham and Adam Dunn for less than what they paid Werth and gotten more production. Stephen Strasburg isn’t expected back until 2012.

26. Arizona Diamondbacks

The Good: They didn’t trade Justin Upton. Daniel Hudson showed potential as a starting pitcher last year.

The Bad: They had a strong rotation with Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, and Edwin Jackson going into 2010. All 3 of those guys are gone and they’re left with a bunch of young guys, Hudson, Joe Saunders, and Ian Kennedy. Their lineup isn’t good enough to make up for that.

27. Cleveland Indians

The Good: Carlos Santana could be ready for the start of the season. Maybe Grady Sizemore will stay healthy.

The Bad: Even if Sizemore and Santana stay healthy, their lineup isn’t very good and their pitching staff certainly isn’t good enough to compensate, especially if Fausto Carmona becomes a mid-season trade.

28. Kansas City Royals

The Good: With the league’s top farm system, they might be really good in the future.

The Bad: It’s not the future yet.

29. Seattle Mariners

The Good: Felix Hernandez is the reigning Cy Young award winner.

The Bad: Their lineup had 74 fewer runs than any other team in the majors last year and they didn’t fix that.

30. Pittsburgh Pirates

The Good: Uh…

The Bad: They suck.

In the past week the Boston Red Sox have acquired Adrian Gonzalez (trade) and Carl Crawford (free agency). Earlier this offseason I did some number crunching and found that we could add Gonzo and Crawford without increasing our payroll significantly (provided we didn’t resign Mike Lowell, Adrian Beltre, and Victor Martinez). I posted a write up about that on here about a month ago, but even after posting it, I didn’t actually think it would happen.  And for a while it looked like it wouldn’t.

The Gonzalez deal appeared to have fallen apart at the eleventh hour because we were unable to work out an extension with Gonzalez and Theo Epstein said no deal, before trade talks rekindled and Gonzalez ended up in Beantown. After the Nationals signing of Jayson Werth for a whopping 7 years 126 million, there was a large speculation that Theo Epstein and the Red Sox ownership would not be willing to pay Crawford more than that, which likely meant he was going elsewhere. In fact, the only team that looked to have the amount of money available necessary to give Crawford more than Werth was a certain team from the Bronx. And it looked like our off-season would once again fall short to the Yankees, who seemed poised to add both Crawford and Cliff Lee, a mere two years after they added CC Sabathia, Mark Teixiera, and AJ Burnett, and once again it would be because of front office refused to splurge on free agents.

For all my years as a Red Sox fan, I had grown accustomed to watching the Yankees add all the big name players while we sat back and “waited for the market to come to us” which would eventually end in us overpaying secondary free agent targets. Julio Lugo. JD Drew. Curt Schilling (though that didn’t turn out too badly). John Lackey. Mike Cameron. Yes, we do have more titles than the Yankees in the past 10 years, something that franchise hasn’t been able to say since before World War I, but we never won a December in that period.

Yes, it’s more important to win in October than December, but I would have liked to have seen us win a December at least once, instead of watching the Yankees sign Alex Rodriguez, Jason Giambi, Mark Teixiera, CC Sabathia, the biggest name on the market every year, while we overpay for the leftovers in reaction to the Yankees moves. We were always reactors and it’s demoralizing to us fans.

Just as painful as that was watching the Yankees steal Johnny Damon right out from under our noses. Johnny Damon, the 2004 World Series hero, the Yankee killer, we wouldn’t even shell out the money for him. Our ownership has the money, but their refusal to spend it on big name free agents has always frustrated me. We haven’t added a huge name free agent since 2000 with Manny Ramirez.

This year, we’ve finally won a December with Crawford and Gonzo. I gave it about a 10% chance of happening when the offseason started and it didn’t look like we would get either right up until we did, but it happened. The Yankees will probably sign Cliff Lee, but they’re finally in our old position, the reactor position. The Yankees now want to sign Cliff Lee even more to keep up with us, giving him an extra year on their once 6 year 140 million dollar contract. Cliff Lee is significantly better than the scraps we were always left to overpay, but it still feels good not to be the ones left reacting to what the other did. We’re the team in control this year. It’s a sweet feeling knowing that we left the New York Yankees reacting to us.

Between Adrian Gonzalez’ projected extension (6 years 138 million is what I’m hearing) and the 7 year deal we gave Crawford, worth 142 million, we’ve spent 280 million dollars this offseason. I don’t even care that people are calling the Red Sox the baby Yankees, or saying that we are just like the Yankees now that we are spending money, that we’ve become everything we once hated. Those people are just jealous, in my opinion. How many of those people would be mad if their team added Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford just because they’re spending money like the Yankees? Those people all wish they were in our position.

For the record, I’m calling us the Yankees meets the A’s, or moneyball with money. We have money and we know how to use it wisely. Crawford probably won’t be worth his contract at the end of it, but what big name free agent ever is?  And our payroll won’t skyrocket as a result of this, believe it or not.

With Mike Lowell’s 12 million coming off the books after last season, as well as Adrian Beltre’s 9 million, and Victor Martinez’ s 8 million, we had room in the budget. The Sox are handling the situation with Adrian Gonzalez such that his extension won’t kick in until 2012, so he’d still be making 5.5 million dollars only next season, before making about 22-23 million per from 2012-2017.

After 2011, we have JD Drew’s 14 million coming off the books as well as Dice-K’s 10 million, Jonathan Papelbon’s 10 million, Mike Cameron’s 7 million, Marco Scutaro’s 5 million, and David Ortiz’ 12.5 million, so that 23 million dollar extension will be well within our budget and we’d still have room to bring back Papi at a reduced rate if he deserves it, or add a veteran DH, and add a good starter to replace the inconsistent Daisuke Matsuzaka in the rotation. We also have top

prospects like Ryan Kalish, Lars Anderson, and Jose Iglesias to fill voids.

This is our projected 2011 Lineup

LF Carl Crawford

2B Dustin Pedroia

1B Adrian Gonazlez

3B Kevin Youkilis

DH David Ortiz

RF JD Drew

SS Marco Scutaro

C Jarrod Saltalamacchia/Jason Varitek

CF Jacoby Ellsbury

We’ll also have Ryan Kalish on our bench to give Drew a rest, and to serve as a defensive replacement and pinch runner.

SP Jon Lester

SP Clay Buchholz

SP Josh Beckett

SP John Lackey

SP Daisuke Matsuzaka

SU Daniel Bard

CP Jonathan Papelbon

This is our projected 2012 Lineup

LF Carl Crawford

2B Dustin Pedroia

1B Adrian Gonzalez

3B Kevin Youkilis

DH David Ortiz/free agent DH/Lars Anderson

RF Ryan Kalish

SS Jose Iglesias

C Jarrod Saltamacchia

CF Jacoby Ellsbury

SP Jon Lester

SP Clay Buchholz

SP Josh Beckett

SP John Lackey

SP Free agent SP

SU Free agent SU

CP Daniel Bard

If we can add some cheap middle relief help for both years, that’s the league’s most complete team for 2011 and 2012, even if the Yankees add Cliff Lee (right now, I’m still really hoping that Lee goes to Texas or Washington). We scored 818 runs in 2010, 2nd to the Yankees. This was with Jacoby Ellsbury playing only 18 games, Dustin Pedroia playing only 75, and Kevin Youkilis playing only 102. Now we get those three back healthy and add Gonzo and Crawford.

Our pitching staff isn’t bad either if we can add some middle relief. I think we have one of the best rotations in baseball if that can stay healthy. And don’t underestimate how much a healthy Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford will help out defense and thus our pitching staff. This run prevention thing Theo Epstein has been preaching for the past few years might actually happen this year and it certainly will in 2012 when Ryan Kalish takes over for JD Drew in right. Fastest. Outfield. Ever.

We won 89 games in 2010 with so many injuries and now we add 2 of the top 25 players in the league. Even if the Yankees add Cliff Lee, we have to be the favorites right now to win it in October, and we definitely have finally won a December, leaving the Yankees reacting to us. And I couldn’t be happier about that. 

AL MVP: OF Josh Hamilton- Texas

This is an interesting race. The two best statistical players in the AL were Josh Hamilton (.359/32/100/91/8 ) and Miguel Cabrera (.328/38/126/111/3). However, Miguel Cabrera hasn’t played a meaningful game since the beginning of September as the Tigers finished the season 81-81, 13 games out of first place. Josh Hamilton, meanwhile, hasn’t played a game since the beginning of September. Period. He ran into a wall in the first week of September and didn’t play the rest of the way, with the exception of some tune up at bats for the playoffs late in the season. You may here other candidates here, Robinson Cano, Jose Bautista, Paul Konerko, Adrian Beltre. However, Hamilton (.359/.411/.633) and Cabrera (.328/.420/.622), in terms of the important stats, AVG, OBP, SLG, were so much better statistically than Cano (.319/.381/.534) Bautista (.260/.378/.617) Konerko (.312/.393/.584) and Beltre (.321/.365/.553). I think it has to gone down to those two. I’m taking Hamilton because he did get his team to the playoffs. The Rangers were 9 games up when he went down. He already did his work. They were going to the playoffs. They sat him for rest reasons. Some teams need 6 months to get to the playoffs. The Rangers needed 5. Hamilton didn’t need to play that last month. Joe Mauer missed a month last year and still won the MVP, granted it was April and not September. In fact, Hamilton only had 30 fewer at bats than Hamilton.

NL MVP: 1B Joey Votto- Cincinnati

I think this is a no brainer. Votto led the Reds to the playoffs. He ranks in the top 3 in the NL in HRs and RBI, top 2 in AVG, and leads the NL in OBP, SLG, and OPS. No one has the MVP resume he has.

AL Cy Young: SP Felix Hernandez- Seattle

The last time a pitcher led the league in ERA, Ks, and innings and didn’t win the Cy Young…er well that’s never happened. The last time a pitcher won 13 games and won the Cy Young…er well that’s never happened either. One of those things will happen this year, but I’m going with the former. It’s not his fault his team couldn’t score runs for him. He did everything he could to help his team win every given week. He had 30 quality starts in 34 starts, the best ratio in the league and that’s what matters here. He gave his team a chance to win almost every week. Not his fault they didn’t.

NL Cy Young: SP Roy Halladay- Philadelphia

He didn’t led the NL in ERA. That would be Josh Johnson, who only won 11 games and he only made 28 starts. He didn’t lead the NL in WHIP. That would be his teammate Roy Oswalt. He didn’t lead the NL in Ks. That would be The Freak, Tim Lincecum. But he was top 3 in all of those categories and he did also win 21 games. He also led the NL in innings, with 250.2, 15.2 more than anyone else. That has such a value. You know, when you give him the ball, you’re getting into the late innings and your bullpen is getting a rest. He had 9 complete games, 4 more than anyone else. He was almost as good as any pitcher in the league and he was far more durable and far more active than any other pitcher. He only had one start of fewer than 6 innings all season.

AL Rookie of the Year: RP Neftali Feliz- Texas

No rookie hitters stood out. Brennan Boesch looked like a lock for this award at the all-star break, until he batted.165 in 218 post all-star at bats. Austin Jackson had a decent line, but is there anything that impressive about .293/4/41/103/27. Is there anything not impressive about what Neftali Feliz did this year? He had 40 saves, not only a rookie record, but 3rd most in the AL. His batting average against of .176 is 3rd in the league out of all pitchers that have thrown more than 60 innings. His WHIP of 0.89, 4 best out of all pitchers that have thrown more than 60 innings. Only two other pitchers who had more than 30 save opportunities blew 3 saves or fewer. And he’s a rookie.

NL Rookie if the year: C Buster Posey- San Francisco

As few offensive rookies as there were in the AL, there were many in the NL. Gaby Sanchez, Mike Stanton, Buster Posey, Starlin Castro, Ike Davis, Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker, Chris Johnson, Jason Heyward. And some of the pitchers were pretty good too, most notably Jaime Garcia, who had a sub-3 ERA. However, of those names, only one sparked his team’s playoff run. The Giants don’t make the playoffs without Posey. This team was 40-38 on July 1st, the day Bengie Molina was traded to Texas and Buster Posey was given a starting job. 3 months later, the Giants are 92-70 (52-32 since Posey was given a starting job) and going to the playoffs. Since that day, Posey has 17 homeruns, 57 RBIs and is batting .345. Those stats rank him against the best in the league since that day, veteran or rookie. Posey ranked in the top 2 (of all rookies with 400 PA of more) in BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS, leading all 4 of those except OBP. He also ranked in the top 7 in HRs, RBIs, and runs out of all rookies. Oh, and he’s a catcher, which makes all that stuff even more impressive, and he did it all in San Francisco, a true pitcher’s park. He did phenomenal work behind the plate and off the field with the pitching staff, something you don’t hear often about rookies. He’s also a very good defensive catcher.

AL Manager of the Year: Ron Gardenhire- Minnesota

Who are these Twins? Didn’t they trade Johan Santana away for prospects that didn’t pan out a few years ago? Didn’t Torii Hunter leave as a free agent? Didn’t Justin Morneau go out with a concussion around the All-Star Break? Didn’t Joe Nathan miss the entire season with Tommy John surgery? The point is, the big names weren’t there, but like always, Gardy found a way to win, and not just win, but 94 games, the first team to clinch a playoff spot, winning the division by 6 games despite resting their starters for the last week of the season, and finishing 2 games out of the best record in the AL.

NL Manager of the Year: Bud Black- San Diego

Raise your hand if you had the Padres making the playoffs at the beginning of the season? Hmm, no hands. Well the Padres didn’t make the playoffs, but it did come down to the last day. With a record of 90-72, the Padres had a one game lead over the Red Sox for best record out of all non-playoff teams in the majors. They led the division for most of the season, before collapsing in early September and relinquishing a 6.5 game lead to the Giants. However, they still well exceeded expectations and their manager deserves a ton of credit for that.

MLB Playoffs

ALDS:

Rays over Rangers in 4

Twins over Yankees in 5

NLDS: 

Phillies over Reds in 4

Giants over Braves in 5

ALCS:

Rays over Twins in 6

NLCS:

Phillies over Giants in 5

World Series:

Phillies over Rays in 7