NFL Mock Drafts, Fantasy Football, NFL Picks, NFL Power Rankings, and more

Winners

Yankees

They didn’t NEED anything, but this was simply the Yankees saying to the world, hey, we’re the New York Fucking Yankees and we can do whatever we want. If we want to take a player whose been the face of his franchise for at least the half decade and add him to our bench because we need someone to DH versus lefties, we will. Berkman is an experienced vet who was extremely cheap and can be a valuable, backup 1st baseman, DH, pinch hitter, and occasionally corner outfielder for them down the stretch. Austin Kearns was probably one of the 2 or 3 best hitters on the Indians, but the Yankees add him to, to strength their bench and flex their muscle, and he too was very cheap. Kerry Wood might not be much better than any of their other options in the 8th, but then again he might be, but again it doesn’t matter because they didn’t really give up much. The only thing they lost really was money, but we all know they have plenty of that.

Rangers

I’m no economics expert, but something tells me that a team that has filed for bankruptcy shouldn’t be allowed to add 4 players to their team in the span of a few weeks, but that’s exactly what the Rangers did. It started with Bengie Molina, who solidifies the catcher position for them, and then Cliff Lee for 30 cents on the dollar, who was the ace/best player alive they desperately needed. Then, in the past few days they added infielder Cristian Guzman, who will play second while Ian Kinsler is on the DL, as well as Jorge Cantu, who will play 1st to replace the promising, but struggling Justin Smoak, who went to Seattle as the 25 of the 30 cents to Cliff Lee’s dollar. They’re currently running away with their division and with all of their moves, they’re trying to position themselves to compete with teams like the Rays and Yankees in October.

Angels

They may be out of it now, but the Dan Haren deal was very clearly made with 2011 in mind. Haren is no rental and with the Rangers having key players hit the free agent market this offseason and with Angels star Kendry Morales expected to be good to go for the start of next season, the Angels felt they were a Haren away from being the favorites in the AL West once again in 2011 and they got him for relatively cheap, a backend starter and some middle of the road prospects.

Phillies

Roy Halladay. Cole Hamels. Roy Oswalt. That is what opposing teams will have to face 1-2-3 in the playoffs. Isn’t that scarier than Roy Halladay. Cole Hamels. Joe Blanton. I thought so. The offense still needs to come together and of course they still need to make the playoffs, currently trailing the Braves for the division and the Giants for the wild card, but once they get there, they should be in pretty good shape to make a 3rd straight run to the World Series.

Nationals

Well, first they traded the closer that they signed in the offseason for almost nothing to the Twins for their top hitting prospect, catcher Wilson Ramos, the same Wilson Ramos that the Twins were hesitant to give up for Cliff Lee. Then, they kept Adam Dunn. Many places will say that’s a bad move. This is not one of them. Dunn is their best hitter. He is secretly one of the best hitters in the entire world with 6 straight seasons of 38 or more homeruns and 340 career homeruns at age 30. His average is seeing its best days in Washington and even his strikeouts are getting less and less frequent. For any of the amounts I’m hearing that Dunn wants from Washington in an extension, Dunn would be a steal. Dunn enjoys it there and Dunn, with guys like Ryan Zimmerman, Josh Willingham, the world’s top prospect Bryce Harper, as well as Stephen Strasburg, and now Wilson Ramos, this team has the core to become an NL powerhouse in a few years.

Cardinals

Ryan Ludwick is a solid player, but he won’t be missed. The Cardinals have rookie John Jay who is hitting very well this season in limited action. I expect Jay to offer comparable production to Ludwick for the rest of the season. However, Jake Westbrook is perfect for this team. With Westbrook, the Cardinals now have a rotation, with Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, and Jaime Garcia, that is not only one of the best in baseball, but is playoff good. In the playoffs you need 4 good starters. They have 4 good starters. That 5th guy becomes a reliever in the playoffs, meaning he’s not all that important. Westbrook is the type of pitcher the Cardinals and pitching coach Dave Duncan love to work with. To make things sweeter, the Padres also sent back a prospect to St. Louis in the deal.

Astros

Astros fans may not see it this way, but I see them as winners. As they were built before, they stunk. By getting J.A. Happ, who has done nothing but impress me and many others, for Roy Oswalt, they actually got more for Oswalt than the Mariners got for Cliff Lee. Happ is still young at 27 and is 15-5 with a 3.03 ERA in his career. He’s a solid #2 or #3 starter and he’s significantly cheaper than Oswalt. Remember this is the same Happ that the Phillies refused to send to Cleveland last year for Cliff Lee. They also got some decent prospects back for Lance Berkman. I’ve seen teams rebuild by selling their top players way cheap. This team did not do that. The haul they got back for Oswalt and Berkman give their team a much better chance to compete in the future than if they had kept Berkman and Oswalt and let them leave as free agents or get worse due to age.

Padres

They weren’t supposed to be good this year. They are. They weren’t supposed to be buyers at the deadline. They were. They may be a cash scrapped franchise, but they got two nice additions and showed the world that, by the way, they are here to compete this year. Miguel Tejada and Ryan Ludwick don’t jump off the page, but they’re better than what they had in right and at shortstop before and they add some needed pop to what is probably the weakest lineup of any of the true NL contenders.

Dodgers

How is it the teams with the most issues in terms of ownerships got the most players at the deadline? The Rangers filed for bankruptcy and the Dodgers ownership is going through a messy divorce. However, the Dodgers and Rangers both added 4 players. The Dodgers got Scott Podsednik. He’ll fill in for Manny Ramirez until he returns and he’ll be a very valuable 4th outfielder down the stretch. He can run. He can play the field and he’s been there before winning it all with the White Sox in 2005. He also can be a solid pinch hitter. They got Octavio Dotel, who wasn’t the best bullpen arm on the market, but he’s a much needed power righty and can be the setup man that George Sherill was supposed to be. They got Ted Lilly, who adds a true veteran #3 starter to the rotation behind Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw, and solidifies a rotation that, at times, was calling multiple random pitchers from Triple-A every week to make spot starts. They also added Ryan Theriot, who will be a solid replacement for the underachieving Blake DeWitt at 2nd. DeWitt went to the Cubs in the Lilly deal. And by all indications, they didn’t make a single Carlos Santana for Casey Blake mistake, even though they got a lot of their trade partners to eat salary.

Losers

Rays

The Yankees added Lance Berkman, Austin Kearns, and Kerry Wood because they did. The Rays needed to make a move even before they did that. They didn’t make a move, unless you count trading for Chad Qualls and his 8.15. They needed a bat for the lineup and an arm for the ‘pen and unless you count Qualls, they didn’t really do either. They needed Adam Dunn or, at the very least, Lance Berkman, and got neither.

White Sox

They needed someone like Adam Dunn, Prince Fielder, or even Lance Berkman. They got none of them. They didn’t need Edwin Jackson. They got him. I’m not sure Jackson is an upgrade for the rest of the season over 23 year-old Daniel Hudson, one of the White Sox top prospects, who they sent to Arizona for Jackson. In 4 starts this year, Hudson was 1-1 with a 4.56 ERA, 18 strikeouts, and 12 walks.

Twins

So they were hesitant to trade Wilson Ramos to Seattle for Cliff Lee, but they’ll send him to Washington for Matt Capps. Capps doesn’t even really fill a need. Jon Rauch has converted 21 of 25 saves and has a 2.97 ERA in 39.1 innings. They may have needed a late inning reliever, but they didn’t need to trade their top prospect for a closer and convert their closer to a late inning reliever. I know they didn’t need Ramos, with Joe Mauer at the big league level already for many, many years, but they could have swapped him for a bat, maybe a guy like Adam Dunn, or a starter or just keep him until the offseason and see who opens up on the market. Ramos was a highly sought after prospect and they sold him way too cheap and they still didn’t add a starter to the rotation, which was extremely necessary for them.

Tigers

With the injuries they’ve had in recent weeks, including most notably Magglio Ordonez, this team needed to add another bat to the mix and they didn’t. They’re currently 52-52 and 7 games back and it’s not looking good for them this season.

Blue Jays

They have a guy in Jose Bautista whose value will never be higher. He was a perfect sell high candidate for them. He’s likely a one year wonder as a result of playing in Toronto, where he is hitting 70 points better and hitting homeruns twice as frequently as on the road. They could have gotten a ton for him, but they didn’t want to move him. They also had huge asking prices for two late innings relievers, including Scott Downs, one of the most sought after arms on the market, and ended up getting nothing for them.

Orioles

Trading Miguel Tejada was good, but they needed to trade a few other players. This team is currently farther out of 4th place than any team in the league is out of 1st. They stink. Ty Wigginton was one of the most sought after bats on the market, but they didn’t want to move him. Jeremy Guthrie was also a valuable 4th starter type pitcher for a contender and they weren’t listening to offer for him either.

Mariners

What they got back for Cliff Lee was ridiculous. Justin Smoak and some spare parts. Smoak has potential, but at the same time he’s batting .198 this year and is having some major issues at the plate. They almost might have been better off letting Lee go this offseason for draft picks.

Brewers

The Brewers aren’t in any position to win right now and they needed to move one or both of Corey Hart and Prince Fielder, not because they will become free agents in the next few years, but because their farm system at pitching is horrible. They have some decent hitting prospects that could come up and take Hart’s spot or Fielder’s spot, but they have no hope really in the farm system in terms of pitchers and they’re already struggling to get outs.

Giants

They’re kind of the anti-Brewers right now, only they’re actually in position to contend for a playoff spot right now. However, they needed a Prince Fielder or Corey Hart to add to their lineup and they could afford to part with a starting pitcher. With Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, Madison Bumgartner, and top pitching prospect Zach Wheeler, as well as Barry Zito under contract for a few more years, they could trade one of them and still have 5 good pitchers for the future and 4 good pitchers for this year, which is all you really need in the playoffs. With a good hitter, they could have been a World Series contender this year. Keeping their team as it currently is, they are a playoff contender and will likely stay that way for a while as they have to pay their pitchers and won’t have enough money to ever add to the lineup and take their team to the next level.

There is always a lot of talk around this time about a potential Homerun Derby curse where a player who wins the Homerun Derby messes up his swing for the second half. The talk mostly comes from fans, but also recently it has been coming from the players, players like Albert Pujols who don’t want to compete. There have certainly been several prominent cases where a player has had a significantly worse 2nd half after winning or doing extremely well in the Derby (Josh Hamilton, Bobby Abreu), but, overall, is there a trend, or are there just a few cases we all remember? Let’s look at everyone who has won the Derby, as well as those players who did well in the Derby but did not win, since 2000. We’ll call 20 homeruns good.

2000

Sammy Sosa- 1st place 26

Pre all-star: .305 batting average 23 homeruns/338 at bats (1/14.7)

Post all-star: .338 batting average 27 homeruns/266 at bats (1/9.9)

Verdict: Significantly better 2nd half

Comments: None

2001

Luis Gonzalez- 1st place 16

Pre-all star: .355 batting average 35 homeruns/330 at bats (1/9.4)

Post-all star: .290 batting average 22 homeruns/279 at bats (1/12.7)

Verdict: Significantly worse 2nd half

Comments: None

Jason Giambi- 3rd place 20 (14 first round)

Pre-all star: .322 batting average 19 homeruns/283 at bats (1/14.9)

Post-all star: .367 batting average 19 homeruns/237 at bats (1/12.5)

Verdict: Significantly better 2nd half

Comments: None

2002

Jason Giambi- 1st place 24

Pre-all star: .318 batting average 22 homeruns/314 at bats (1/14.3)

Post-all star: .309 batting average 19 homeruns/246 at bats (1/12.9)

Verdict: Slightly better 2nd half

Comments: BA dropped a slight bit, but I think the increase in power is a little bit better than the dip in batting average

2003

Garret Anderson- 1st place 22

Pre-all star: .316 batting average 22 homeruns/370 at bats (1/16.8)

Post-all star: .313 batting average 7 homeruns/268 at bats (1/38.3)

Verdict: Significantly worse 2nd half

Comments: Not actually as bad as it looks. Anderson was never a big power hitter and some of the difference we see here can be attributed to Anderson hitting 12 homeruns in June of 2003. That being said, it is hard to ignore those mere 7 homeruns.

Albert Pujols- 2nd place 26 (14 2nd round)

Pre-all star: .368 batting average 27 homeruns/348 at bats (1/12.9)

Post-all star: .346 batting average 16 homeruns/243 at bats(1/15.2)

Verdict: Slightly worse 2nd half

Comments: A tough one here, but if you hit a homerun in every 15 at bats and have a batting average of .346, it’s hard to say the Derby significantly hurt you, even if your BA did drop 22 points and your homeruns slowed down by a rate of 2.3 at bats.

Jason Giambi- 3rd place 23 (12 1st round)

Pre-all star: .267 batting average 26 homeruns/318 at bats (1/12.2)

Post-all star: .226 batting average 15 homeruns/217 at bats (1/14.7)

Verdict: Significantly worse 2nd half

Comments: Another tough one, the power didn’t really drop, but that .227 BA is ugly. I gave Pujols a slightly so I’ll give Giambi a significantly worse in this borderline call to make it fair.

2004

Miguel Tejada- 1st place 27

Pre-all star: .311 batting average 15 homeruns/344 at bats (1/22.9)

Post-all star: .311 batting average 19 homeruns/309 at bats (1/16.3)

Verdict: Slightly better 2nd half

Comments: None

Lance Berkman- 2nd place 21 (10 2nd round)

Pre-all star: .299 batting average 16 homeruns/284 at bats (1/17.8)

Post-all star: .335 batting average 14 homeruns/260 at bats (1/18.6)

Verdict: Slightly better 2nd half

Comments: Power dropped a bit, but the 36 point increase in batting average counters that.

2005

Bobby Abreu- 1st place 41

Pre-all star: .307 batting average 18 homeruns/323 at bats (1/17.9)

Post-all star: .260 batting average 6 homeruns/265 at bats (1/44.2)

Verdict: Significantly worse 2nd half

Comments: Simply put, he sucked. There’s a reason he’s the poster child for the “Derby Curse.”

Ivan Rodriguez- 2nd place 20 (8 2nd round)

Pre-all star: .292 batting average 6 homeruns/292 at bats (1/48.7)

Post-all star: .252 batting average 8 homeruns/208 at bats (1/26)

Verdict: Slightly worse 2nd half

Comments: Another borderline one, his average dropped pretty significantly, but the power did pick up. However, Pudge has never been a homerun hitter and even when the power picked up, it didn’t pick up to the one where he was hitting a homerun every 15-20 at bats.

David Ortiz- 3rd place 20 (17 1st round)

Pre-all star: .314 batting average 21 homeruns/328 at bats (1/15.6)

Post-all star: .282 batting average 26 homeruns/273 at bats (1/10.5)

Verdict: Slightly better 2nd half

Comments: Another borderline one, the BA dropped, but the power went up significantly and since this is ultimately a homerun derby, I’d say the derby helped his swing. Papi’s never been a big BA guy either.

2006

Ryan Howard- 1st place 23

Pre-all star: .278 batting average 28 homeruns/316 at bats (1/11.3)

Post-all star: .355 batting average 30 homeruns/265 at bats (1/8.8)

Verdict: Significantly better 2nd half

Comments: The anti-Bobby Abreu. This guy destroyed the baseball in the 2nd half.

David Wright- 2nd place 22 (16 1st round)

Pre-all star: .316 batting average 20 homeruns/339 at bats (1/17.0)

Post-all star: .305 average 6 homeruns/243 at bats (1/40.5)

Verdict: Significantly worse 2nd half

Comments: None

2007

Vladimir Guerrero- 1st place 17

Pre-all star: .325 batting average 14 homeruns/311 at bats (1/22.2)

Post-all star: .323 batting average 13 homeruns/263 at bats (1/20.2)

Verdict: Slightly better 2nd half

Comments: The increase in power by a rate of 2 at bats makes up for the 2 point drop in BA, which isn’t really anything.

2008

Justin Morneau- 1st place 22

Pre-all star: .323 batting average 14 homeruns/365 at bats (1/26.1)

Post-all star: .267 batting average 9 homeruns/258 at bats (1/28.7)

Verdict: Significantly worse 2nd half

Comments: A tough one, but it is hard to ignore a drop in BA of 56 points, even if the power didn’t get too much worse.

Josh Hamilton 2nd place 35 (28 1st round)

Pre-all star: .310 batting average 21 homeruns/377 at bats (1/18.0)

Post-all star: .297 batting average 11 homeruns/247 at bats (1/22.5)

Verdict: Slightly worse 2nd half

Comments: This may be controversial since Hamilton is hyped as having a horrible 2nd half, but the numbers don’t lie, 13 point BA drop isn’t horrible and neither is the drop in power from one every 18 to one every 22.5. This is also a slightly makeup call to balance the borderline slightly/significantly with Justin Morneau.

2009

Prince Fielder 1st place 23

Pre-all star: .315 batting average 22 homeruns/308 at bats (1/14)

Post-all star: .283 batting average 24 homeruns/283 at bats (1/11.8)

Verdict: Slightly better 2nd half

Comments: The batting average did drop, but Prince has never been a BA guy and the power in his 2nd half was pretty amazing. When a guy hits a homerun in every 11.8 at bats in the 2nd half, you can’t really say the derby hurt him.

Nelson Cruz 2nd place 21 (11 1st round)

Pre-all star: .263 batting average 22 homeruns/297 at bats (1/13.5)

Post-all star: .255 batting average 11 homeruns/165 at bats (1/15)

Verdict: Slightly worse 2nd half

Verdict: Cruz actually saw a decrease in playing time in the 2nd half, but he didn’t produce too much differently when he did play.

Totals:

Significantly worse: 6

Slightly worse: 4

Slightly better: 6

Significantly better: 3

I think these numbers really suggest that there isn’t a ton going on in terms of a Derby Curse. Yes, more players had worse stats than better (10 to 9) and more players had significantly worse stats than significantly better (6 to 3), but the numbers don’t really jump out at you like you would expect. Yopu also have to consider that players probably do a little worse in the 2nd half anyway, with their bodies tiring, so that may be the reason for part of the slight difference in statistical production we are seeing.

Interesting pattern I picked up on and it makes sense, of the significantly worse group 4 of the 6 hitters I can classify as line drive type players, players whose swing is not designed to hit for power (Luis Gonzalez, Garret Anderson, Bobby Abreu, David Wright). All 3 of the significantly better group have uppercut homerun swings (Sammy Sosa, Jason Giambi, Ryan Howard). It makes sense. If you don’t have to alter your swing to swing for the fences in a Derby, the Derby can’t really mess up your swing. If you do have to make your swing less short and more uppercut, it can mess you up. 

As coach Herm Edwards once said, “you play to win the game.” That being said, I don’t like the idea that the All-Star Game should decide home field advantage in baseball. Charlie Manuel picked guys like Arthur Rhodes, Hong Chih Kuo, Evan Meek, Michael Bourn, and Omar Infante for the All-Star team, three middle relievers, a pinch runner, and a utility man. And you know what, those moves were pretty smart. Manuel knows his Phillies could get back to the World Series this year and wanted home field advantage when they got there so he did what it took to win, even if it was unorthodox, taking guys who specialize in the 7th or 8th inning, rather than taking closers and forcing them into different roles. He took a guy like Bourn to pinch run and possibly steal a base he took Infante because of his versatility.

The issue with this, it makes for a pretty boring game. In my opinion, players should be picked for the All-Star game off of three criteria, in order, the quality of their first half production, their popularity with the fans, and three and finally, to help you win the game. While it could be argued that those three middle relievers had a solid first half, it’s tough to argue that Omar Infante, who isn’t even a starter on his own team, and Michael Bourn who is batting .255 with 1 homerun and 22 RBIs this season, statistically were worthy of being there. Plus, none of those five generate much buzz with the fans at all.

Another issue with the game counting, we don’t see everyone play. Some guys are kept on the bench because the manager feels his team has a better shot of winning with someone else in the lineup. Where’s the fun in that? What’s the point of them even being there?

Another issue, it just gives too much power to one game. If Brian McCann strikes out last night instead of hitting a 3 run double, the AL likely wins. One swing of the bat deciding homefield in the World Series, when the man swinging the bat could very well not even be a part of the World Series in a few months, that doesn’t make any sense. Home field in the World Series should be decided in one of four ways. Whoever has the best record of the two teams playing, whichever league had the better record in interleague, whichever teams has the best record in interleague, or simply whichever team wins their CS first, with any ties being broken by regular season record, individual team interleague record, or league interleague record. If the All-Star game continues to decide homefield advantage, winning will continue to be more important than the fans and having fun during the All-Star game.

A few more issues with the All-Star game, the rosters are way too big. 34 players?! What’s wrong with 25 players, with the option to put players that you’ve taken out before back into the game if the game goes into extras and you need more players. 34 really cheapens being named an All-Star.

Speaking of cheapening being named an All-Star, I think the whole thing were every team needs to be represented needs to be done away with. You shouldn’t get an All-Star pick simply because you’re the best player on your team, but rather because your one of the top 25 players in your league. A few more things I would like to see all involve increasing fan involvement. What’s wrong with letting the fans pick the starting pitcher too, or even some of the backups. 

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera- Detroit

He leads the AL in OPS right now with an OPS of 1.066. He also leads or is tied for the lead in homeruns, RBIs, slugging, batting average, doubles, and he’s 2nd in on base percentage, 3rd in runs, oh, and his team’s in first place in their division.

AL Cy Young: Cliff Lee- Seattle

He’s got a few things working against him. He’s only got 8 wins, but a lot of that has to do with his team, but as Zach Grienke showed last year, wins aren’t the most important thing. Also, if he gets traded, he’ll go somewhere where he will get better run support. He missed a few starts with injury, but in the grand scheme of things, those few starts won’t matter if he stays healthy the rest of the way. He's also on a bad team, but again I don't think that matters as much. Cliff Lee has been the type of pitcher this year who has thrown it in the strike zone and still gotten guys out. Despite his amazing 89 strikeout to 6 walk ratio, opposing batters are still hitting .231 against him. His WHIP and ERA lead the league and despite a few missed starts, he still has 103.2 inning pitched thanks to 5 complete games. That may not look terribly impressive now, as he ranks 26th in the league with that number, but that’s about 8 innings per starts given his 13 starts. If he keeps that up, he’ll be in the top ten in innings pitched by the end of the year.

AL Rookie of the Year: Brennan Boesch- Detroit

Out of everyone in the AL with a minimum 250 plate appearances, Boesch ranks 5th in OPS, 4th in batting average (trailing by 2 points), 7th in on base percentage, 4th in slugging, and he’s also got 12 homeruns and 47 RBIs and could finish the year with 20+ homeruns and 90+ RBIs. Oh yeah, and he’s a rookie.

NL MVP: Joey Votto- Cincinnati

He leads the NL in OPS with an OPS of 1.014, good for 28 points more than 2nd place Albert Pujols. He has 21 homeruns, could for 1 more than 2nd place Albert Pujols. He has a batting average of .316, good for 5th in the league and 8 points higher than 6th place, Albert Pujols. In terms of runs + RBIs, he leads the league with 115, 4 more than 2nd place, Albert Pujols. He’s slugging 25 points higher than 2nd place Pujols, his on base percentage is 3 points higher than 2nd place Albert Pujols. To bust out a fancy stat, he leads the NL in runs created with 70.2, that’s 2.8 than the man in 2nd place. Can you guess who that is? It’s Albert Pujols. Oh, and his team currently leads the division over the 2nd place St. Louis Cardinals and Albert Pujols.

NL Cy Young: Josh Johnson- Florida

I know what you’re thinking. Not Ubaldo Jimenez? Yep, though most baseball fans couldn’t pick him out of a lineup, Johnson has been the best pitcher in the NL this year. He leads the NL in ERA with 1.82 and he’s tied for the lead in WHIP with 0.96. Opposing batters are batting .203 against him. Those 3 numbers I listed are all either the same or better than Ubaldo Jimenez. Ubaldo has more wins, but also more run support and as Tim Lincecum showed last year, it’s not all about wins. Out of all players with more than 1 start, he leads in quality start percentage. As far as just pitching is concerned, a pitcher does a better job when he throws a quality start than when he throws a win. A win is a team effort. A quality start is almost all on the pitcher. His on base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS against are also all better than Ubaldo’s.

NL Rookie of the Year: Stephen Strasburg- Washington

He wouldn’t deserve it as of now, but since these are award predictions and not awards based on the first half, I’m giving it to Strasburg. What I’ve seen of him in limited action definitely suggests that he can finish this season with a sub 3 era, amazing strikeout ratios, strikeout to walk ratios, and maybe even some wins if his team can get them for him. 

Bold=starter

AL

C John Buck- Toronto

C Victor Martinez- Boston

C Joe Mauer- Minnesota

1B Miguel Cabrera- Detroit

1B Justin Morneau- Minnesota

1B Kevin Youkilis- Boston

1B Paul Konerko- Chicago

2B Robinson Cano- New York

2B Ty Wigginton- Baltimore

SS Derek Jeter- New York

SS Alex Gonzalez- Toronto

3B Adrian Beltre- Boston

3B Evan Longoria- Tampa Bay

3B Michael Young- Texas

OF Josh Hamilton- Texas

OF Brennan Boesch- Detroit

OF Vernon Wells- Toronto

OF Alex Rios- Chicago

OF Shin-Soo Choo- Cleveland

OF Jose Bautista- Toronto

DH Vlad Guerrero- Texas

SP Cliff Lee- Seattle

SP Clay Buchholz- Boston

SP Jon Lester- Boston

SP David Price- Tampa Bay

SP Jered Weaver- Los Angeles

SP Andy Pettitte- New York

SP Jeff Niemann- Tampa B ay

SP Ricky Romero- Toronto

RP Joakim Soria- Kansas City

RP Andrew Bailey- Oakland

RP Neftali Feliz- Texas

RP Rafael Soriano- Tampa Bay

RP Mariano Rivera- New York

NL

C Miguel Olivo- Colorado

C Brian McCann- Atlanta

C Geovany Soto- Chicago

1B Albert Pujols- St. Louis

1B Adrian Gonzalez- San Diego

1B Adam Dunn- Washington

2B Kelly Johnson- Arizona

2B Chase Utley- Philadelphia

2B Brandon Phillips- Cincinnati

SS Hanley Ramirez- Florida

SS Juan Uribe- San Francisco

3B Scott Rolen- Cincinnati

3B David Wright- New York

3B Ryan Zimmerman- Washington

OF Andre Either- Los Angeles

OF Jayson Werth- Philadelphia

OF Colby Ramsus- St. Louis

OF Corey Hart- Milwaukee

OF Andrew McCutchen- Pittsburgh

OF Josh Willingham- Washington

DH Joey Votto- Cincinnati

SP Ubaldo Jimenez- Colorado

SP Josh Johnson- Florida

SP Roy Halladay- Philadelphia

SP Tim Hudson- Atlanta

SP Adam Wainwright- St. Louis

SP Yovani Gallardo- Milwaukee

SP Mat Latos- San Diego

SP Tim Lincecum- San Francisco

SP Chris Carpenter- St. Louis

RP Carlos Marmol- Chicago

RP Matt Lindstrom- Houston

RP Brian Wilson- San Francisco

RP Heath Bell- San Diego

To DH or not to DH? Since the instatement of the designated hitter into the American League in 1973, that has been the question. It has seemed almost an oddity that the two leagues of the same major league would have completely different rules. In American League ballparks, you are allowed to have a 10th player who serves kind of as a permanent pinch hitter for the weak hitting pitcher and in National League ballparks, you are not allowed and the pitcher must hit. I have no strong feelings for or against the designated hitter, but one thing is clear, as a result of allowing the designated hitter in one league and not the other, there is a growing disparity in the two leagues in terms of both talent and revenue and something needs to be done about this. 

The designated hitter creates this disparity in two ways. One, it attracts players to the American League. Most pitchers don't want to hit and a lot of hitters, especially ones getting up there in age, don't want to play in the field. Because of this, more of the better players go to the American league, American league teams generate more revenue and this also attracts players in the American League in what is a growing cycle. 

Two, American League teams carry a 9th starting caliber hitter while a National League team only carries eight because simply, National League owners and general managers aren't willing to shell out the kind of money that it would take to lure some of these players away from the American League if there are really only going to use them as DHs in a few interleague games and the World Series, if they make it. It makes a lot more sense for an American League team to spend 3 million dollars on a 9th hitter than it does for a National League team to spend the same 3 million dollars on a 9th hitter who will DH a few games a year, maybe more, and also get some pinch hit attempts. So they don't do it and when American League teams play National League teams, NL teams are using their top pinch hitter as a DH, while the AL is using an everyday caliber batter. 

The NL has not won an All-Star game against the AL since 1996. That's not a coincedence. Since the start of interleague play in 1996, the AL has won 1674 games to the NL's 1534 wins. The last time the NL has won more interleague games was 2003 and they've only done so in 4 years since '96. Some of them haven't even been close for the NL, and the last 5, demonstrating a growing disparity, have been 136-116, 154-98, 137-115, 149-103, and 138-114. The World Series has not been as bad, with the AL winning 20 of the 35 since 1973, but when you look at which league is winning the most individual World Series game, the AL has won 35 of the 55 games since 1998. Percentage wise that is 64% wins for the AL. 

Let’s look at team payrolls. Payrolls are a pretty good indicator of how much money teams make. 7 of the top 9 payrolls are AL teams, despite the fact that the AL actually has 2 fewer teams. AL teams have more money to spend because baseball fans want to see better baseball and more exciting baseball which the AL has, as a result of the DH. This is only going to lead to higher AL payrolls, which will lead to a larger disparity in talent level between the leagues. The cycle will only continue to increase the disparity.

This problem is not going to fix itself on its own. The more good players will continue to go to the league where pitchers don't have to hit, and hitters don't always have to play in the field. The AL will continue its dominance over the NL both on the field and financially, attracting more top free agents, widening the disparity. The AL will continue to spend money on a 9th everyday hitter, while the NL sees it unnecessary. Something needs to be done, either go DH in both league or in neither, I really don't care.

I wouldn’t mind both leagues having no DH. However, I really don’t see that as plausible. With the success that the AL is having with a DH, why would they want to get rid of that? The NL is going to need to be the one to make the change. Change in baseball in not neccesarily bad. When baseball was first invented, you needed 9 balls to be walked. Imagine if one league was playing with those rules. Until the NL adds a DH, there will be a sizable disparity in talent between the league and that gap will continue to grow. Some people like no DH because it’s real baseball and protects the dignity of the game, but I’d rather have equally matched leagues than no DH in the NL. If anything it ruining the dignity of the game, it’s the unmatched leagues.

AL East

New York Yankees

Boston Red Sox*

Tampa Bay Rays

Baltimore Orioles

Toronto Blue Jays

Even as a Red Sox fan, I cannot pick them to win this division. I’d love to be wrong here, but as an unbiased writer trying to pick what I feel is the most likely outcome, I have to go with the Steinbrenners on this one. Gone are Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui from last years squad, but, though they didn’t spend much money this offseason, except for some chump change on guys like Randy Winn, they’ve quietly gotten some big names into town, stealing Javier Vazquez and Curtis Granderson from the Braves and Tigers respectively. The Red Sox are still too talented to be overlooked though. I do not like what they did this offseason, overpaying the likes of Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron, but the addition of John Lackey, no matter how much they spent on him, can’t hurt their rotation. If Jon Lester and Josh Beckett continue to give the Sox what they have been in recent years, and Clay Buchholz continues to develop, and Dice-K is even a fraction of what he was in 2008, this is probably the best rotation in baseball. Their offense is nothing to be overlooked either, though they lack that fearful middle that Sox fans have been so used to. I think they are the favorites for the Wild Card right now. The Rays season is ultimately going to depend on their bullpen. Their bullpen was great in 2008 and bad in 2009 and, coincidentally, the team made the playoffs in 2008 and not in 2009. The young talent is still there, but I’m not sold on their leaky pen enough to put them past the Sox and Yanks, who will remain divisional juggernauts once again. The Orioles have the young talent to surprise people, especially with their young outfielder, and the reacquisition of Miguel Tejada adds another bat to their lineup, though he’s not going to be the MVP he was a decade ago. The Jays just traded their ace Roy Halladay and are clearly looking towards the future. I don’t think they’ll have the pitching to contend this year at all, and I’m not expecting much from their offense either.

AL Central

Minnesota Twins

Chicago White Sox

Detroit Tigers

Cleveland Indians

Kansas City Royals

The Twins made the playoffs last season despite Justin Morneau going down with injury late. They will continue to do what they do every year, win games. I can’t tell you how they do it with a team that, talent wise, is a .500 team, but they do it. Joe Mauer is going to continue to anchor both their lineup and their defense and I’m expecting a bit of a bounce back here for Francisco Liriano, now over a year removed from Tommy John surgery. He adds to a young rotation that showed a ton of promise last season. The White Sox and a full season of Jake Peavy will be there too in contention. The Tigers gave up Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson in a head scratching cost cutting move. That will show itself on the field this year as they will struggle to get to .500. The Indians were my sleepers last year, and while they don’t have the pitching to be a true contender, their surprise some people assuming their bats stay healthy this year. The pitching staff, though not great, is underrated. They have some interest sleeper names in that seemingly ace-less (or #2 starter-less for that matter) rotation. The Royals have the young talent, but again, I can’t see them putting it all together and getting above .500.

AL West

Los Angeles Angels

Seattle Mariners

Texas Rangers

Oakland Athletics

The Mariners look better on paper and, though this may not be the best reason to not give them the division, but something has to go wrong there. They have arguably the best 1-2 starter punch in the league with Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee, but every single year, they have hope, granted not as much as this year, and the Angels still win this division. The Angels have been hit hard in free agency in recent years, Mark Teixiera, Francisco Rodriguez, John Lackey, and Chone Figgens, but this is a resilient bunch who I am picking to win the division. The Rangers could be a 95 win team if they hit like they did in 2008 and pitch like they did in 2009, but their rotation doesn’t have any starters proven for more than one good year and I’m not counting on Rich Harden to be that guy either. The A’s will pitch well, with vets with Justin Duchscherer and Ben Sheets atop the rotation and great young talent, but neither Duke or Sheets pitched at all last year, so they aren’t reliable. Plus, their offense figures to be one of the worst in the majors.

NL East

Philadelphia Phillies

New York Mets

Florida Marlins

Atlanta Braves

Washington Nationals

Not a huge fan of the Phillies trading Cliff Lee for Roy Halladay simply because, if its working, don’t try to fix it, but its hard to argue with getting Roy Halladay in your rotation next to Cole Hamels. I think this is a team that’s a lock to win the division again with a powerful offense and the best 1-2 pitching punch in the NL. The bullpen could be their achilles heel, but Brad Lidge does well in even numbered years for what its worth, and either way I think they have what it takes to make it back to the World Series. The Mets can’t be worse than last year unless their new stadium collapses on them. The addition of Jason Bay helps, but getting guys like David Wright and Jose Reyes back, hopefully for the season, helps a lot too. Don’t forget they are getting a lot of injured pitchers back as well and Carlos Beltran is reportedly going to be ready to go by May. I think this team is going to challenge for a Wild Card spot. The Marlins will always be there despite never spending any money. They have young talent up to their eyeballs. The Braves lost their best pitcher, Javier Vazquez when they traded him for 65 cents on the dollar to the Yankees, presumably to cut costs. They have some interesting young bats almost ready for the show, but I think they’re going to struggle to find the talent to make the playoffs. 75-80 wins is more likely. The Nationals will continue to be the laughing stock of the league. Jason Marquis and Chien Ming Wang are intriguing offseason additions and Stephen Strasburg’s much anticipated debut will be a big story, but they just don’t have the talent on their roster.

NL Central

St. Louis Cardinals

Chicago Cubs*

Cincinnati Reds

Milwaukee Brewers

Houston Astros

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Cardinals may have overpaid for Matt Holliday, but he’s a hell of a bat protecting Albert Pujols, who, by the way, can swing the bat alright himself. They always seem to find the pitching somewhere and with Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, both of whom were in the top 3 in Cy Young votes, atop their rotation, that shouldn’t be as hard as its been in years past. They are the clear favorites here, but watch out for the Cubbies. They have the talent to win 85+ games when they put their heads together, instead of trying to hit each other in the head with bats. Milton Bradley is gone and, say what you want about Carlos Silva, who they got in exchange for him, he’s not going to cause any problems in the clubhouse. Just as long as they don’t let him on the field. The Reds are my sleeper pick to win 81+ plus games and finally get over .500. They had some very nice quiet offseason additions and they won 78 games last year despite major injuries in their pitching staff. I think they get all the way to 81 this year. The Astros have the bats, but not much else. The Pirates did absolutely nothing this offseason and will continue to be laughed at with the Nats.

NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers

San Francisco Giants

Colorado Rockies

Arizona Diamondbacks

San Diego Padres

The Dodgers had a rough offseason thanks to a martial dispute between owner Frank McCourt and his wife and CEO Jamie McCourt. That really stopped them from doing much this offseason, but all they lost was Randy Wolf. They still have a lot of young talented players, Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw, in the rotation, and an underrated offense that was noticeable better when Manny was in the middle of the lineup last year. As long as he doesn’t try to impregnate himself again, he should be in the lineup everyday, minus a few “Manny being Manny” days off. The Giants have the pitching assuming Matt Cain continues with 2009 success and highly talented Jonathan Sanchez continues what he had going late last season, but the offense is a question mark. Adding a winner like Mark DeRosa helps, but overall I think they’ll struggle to score enough runs. The pitching will continue to bail them out of games though. The Rockies had a great season last year, but I can’t see it continuing this season. This team has potential sophomore slump written all over it, though you can never count them out. The Diamondbacks should be in it too, should their rotation stay healthy, with guys like Dan Haren, Brandon Webb, and now Edwin Jackson, but the question remains whether or not they can score the runs to support them. I think they’ll score enough to contend, but not enough to make the playoffs. The top 4 in this division are going to be very close and I expect all to win more than 80 games. The Padres will continue what seems like a permanent rebuilding effort this year and thus not contend for another season.

ALDS: Red Sox over Angels

ALDS: Yankees over Twins

NLDS: Phillies over Cubs

NLDS: Cardinals over Dodgers

ALCS: Red Sox over Yankees

NLCS: Phillies over Cardinals

World Series: Red Sox over Phillies 

Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees

            As I said in my blog, I am picking the Angels to win the whole thing because they are the only ones this year that are playing for more than a trophy. A lot of times you’ll see the team that wants it most, not the most talented team, win the World Series and no one is playing for more than the Angels who are playing in memory of the late Nick Adenhart, their 22-year-old rookie teammate who died tragically in April when a car in which he was a passenger was hit by a drunk driver. The Yankees will be tough, but I think the Angels want it more

Angels in 6

Philadelphia Philles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

            There are no major psychological advantages in this matchup, at least none like the one in the Angels/Dodgers matchup, but it certainly helps the Philles that they won this exact same series last year in five games in the NLCS. The rosters haven’t changed that much and in fact the Philles might actually be better with the addition of Cliff Lee. The Philles have two outstanding hitters, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, and two ace esque pitchers in Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, as well as depth throughout their rotation and their lineup. The only weakness is their bullpen, but Brad Lidge has pitched well in the postseason and so much of a closer’s job is psychological, so this hot streak in recent games for him is going to be huge.

Philles in 6

            It would have been hard for me, as a Red Sox fan, to pick the Angels to win the World Series as long as the Red Sox were still in contention and playing the Angels. Now that is no longer the case as the Angels completed their 3 game sweep of the Red Sox in comeback fashion today. I am officially throwing my support behind the 2009 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim to win the World Series this year. This is not because they are likely going to play the Yankees next round, assuming the Yankees win one of the next three games, though I would hate nothing more than to see the Yankees get #27. I am supporting the Angels for the same reason they were able to beat the Red Sox. They are playing for something more than a trophy.

            On April 8th, Nick Adenhart threw 6 shutout innings against the Oakland A’s in a no decision in his first major league start. Shortly after the game, Nick got in a car as a passenger with some friends and drove out to celebrate. A red Toyota minivan, whose driver was later confirmed to be drunk, ran a red light and hit the gray Mitsubishi Eclipse in which Adenhart was a passenger. A passenger and the driver of the Mitsubishi Eclipse died on impact, while Adenhart and his friend Jon Wilhite were in critical condition. The drunk driver of the Toyota Minivan would walk away from the accident. 6 hours later Adenhart, a 22-year-old rookie with amazing potential, died.

            The Angels got off to a slow start, but finished with a record of 97-65 and won the AL West. Even though Nick was not physically there, he certainly was present. Every single game they played, they played in Adenhart’s memory, with a giant picture of him in mid throw on the outfield wall. Pitcher Jered Weaver, who was supposed to room with Adenhart this season, spends time before every one of his home starts out in the outfield with the poster of Nick. Before each one of the Angels’ home playoff games the entire team did and will do the same. Each and every member of this Angels team wears a patch of Nick’s number #34 on their jerseys every game. They left his locker the same as it was before he died. Heck, if they win a World Series they’d probably give him a ring. And what an emotional ring ceremony that would be.

Angels’ outfielder Torii Hunter had this to say about their turnaround, “I think we realized that Nick was looking down on us saying, ‘Fellas, come on, let's get it together. I want to win.’” This is why they won the Red Sox series and why I think they will win every other series this postseason. They have more fight in them than any other team because they are playing for more than simply a trophy. They are playing and winning in memory of their friend and their teammate #34 Nick Adenhart.

The Angels play every game as hard as they can to honor Nick Adenhart's memory. What can you do to honor Nick's memory? It's simple. Don't drink and drive.

 Minnesota vs. NY Yankees

I do believe that any team can beat any beat in a best of a 5 series if the momentum is right, and I would like the see the Yankees lose, but I don’t think the Twins have enough firepower, before pitching and offensively, for me to legitimately predict them in this series. The Twins are an excellent small market small ball team, but the Yankees have the big names and assuming they produce (A-Rod?), they should win this series.

NY Yankees in 4

LA Angels vs. Boston

You can’t underestimate the Red Sox’ success against the Angels in the playoffs in years past, but also you can’t underestimate their success against the Angels in the regular season this year. The Angels can give the Red Sox a lot of trouble if they get on the basepaths and start running, but Red Sox pitching has kept them off the basepaths this year and I believe they will continue that here and win a good series.

Boston in 4

Colorado vs. Philadelphia

I don’t want to count the Rockies out because they seem to prove people wrong when people count them out, but I don’t see them having the starting pitching to hang with the Phillies. The Phillies have the advantage in the starting pitching matchup in pretty much every game this series and you can’t forget about their deadly offense as well. The only thing that can hurt the Phillies is their bullpen and Brad Lidge at the end of it.

Philadelphia in 4

LA Dodgers vs. St. Louis

The Dodgers have a good team, but they’ve kind of been stumbling into the playoffs. They haven’t been much more than a solid .500 team since about June. Teams that jump out to big early division leads always then coast tend to struggle in the playoffs. As for the Cardinals, this seems like their year again in the NL. They have an excellent balance of hitting and pitching.

St. Louis in 5