The Football Fan Spot

Yesterday, 13-year NFL veteran Randy Moss retired at the age of 34. Moss made 7 Pro Bowls in his career, ranks among the top 10 in every major receiving statistic, and is a future Hall of Famer, possibly on the first ballot. The move was described as a surprise by major media networks like ESPN, but really, there wasn’t anything surprising about it.

Despite the fact that last year Moss caught 28 passes for 393 yards and 5 touchdowns, career lows across the board, and was let go by 2 two teams and the fact that he’s 34 years old and finished last year as a glorified blocking receiver for the Tennessee Titans, Moss seemed to think he could have his agent tell everyone he was in “freakish shape” and contenders would start lining up to offer him multiyear deals as if he was coming off of his 23 touchdown season (a single season record by the way).

When the Jets and Patriots refused to give him anything longer than a year, and no other contenders even gave him a glance, he retired, a predictable move for the man who once famously declared “I play when I want to play.” He didn’t want to play for a team that was probably going 6-10 or sign a one year deal to be someone’s 3rd receiver, so he retired.

He was Randy freaking Moss and wasn’t going to take being disrespected in the free agency market. Why else would he have his agent so boldly declare that he was in “freakish shape” and then retire 2 weeks later? He was delusional. Don’t buy it? Remember this is the guy who arrived in New England after a terrible year in Oakland and said famously “I don’t need to revitalize nothing.”

Many have also been debating whether or not he’s for real on this retirement thing or whether he could pull a Brett Favre at some point during the season (or a Tiki Barber at some point in approximately 2016). He’s only 34 and if he really did get himself back into shape after a disappointing year last year, he can still contribute somewhere. He could play if he wanted to play.

Given that I think his retirement was a response to being disrespected by the market, I say it’s possible he comes back. I don’t think he wanted to retire, but he was just too proud to take a 1 year deal to be the Jets’ 3rd receiver or be a situation receiver for the Patriots or play for the previously 2-14 Carolina Panthers. However, for him to come back, someone’s going to have to give him what he wants, namely a multiyear deal from a contender. I say the likelihood of that is very low, but injuries happen.

Also, you look at a team like the Philadelphia Eagles. They have 3 good receivers in DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Jason Avant, but all 3 are under 6 feet tall. Moss is 6-4. They need a big receiver; that’s why they were linked to Plaxico Burress. The Eagles are definitely contenders right now and they’re no strangers to making big splashes and giving out 2nd chances. It’s not likely, but maybe they offer him a 2 year deal with not a whole lot guaranteed so they can cut him after a year if they feel like it.

As for Moss’ legacy, it’s simple. He ranked in the top 10 in every major receiving statistic. He is a top 10 receiver all time, but he could have been so much more. This guy had 69 catches for 1313 yards and 17 touchdowns as a ROOKIE. In 2007, he had 98 catches for 1493 yards and 23 touchdowns as a record setting receiver on a record setting Patriots team. In fact, he might have said it best when he said “if I can’t get to it, nobody can get to it.”

In fact, if you remove the 3 seasons he basically checked out (2004 in Minnesota before they traded him, 2006 in Oakland before they traded him, and all of last year), Moss caught 835 passes for 13165 yards and 128 touchdowns over 10 seasons, good for averages of 84 catches for 1317 yards and 13 touchdowns in those seasons. Say he gives it his all in those 3 seasons and puts up a conservative estimate of 90% of those averages in those seasons. Then say he plays 3 more seasons after age 34 at 75% of those averages.

That gives him 3 more seasons of 76 catches for 1185 yards and 12 touchdowns and another 3 more seasons of 63 catches for 988 yards and 10 touchdowns. Add it all together and he has career numbers of 1252 catches for 19684 yards and 194 touchdowns. He still would have been behind Rice, but that would have taken him to age 37. Rice played until he was 42. Really all Rice would have had over him would be longevity. If Moss gave all his at all times and played until he was 42. The only thing Rice has over him is hustle and longevity. Talent wise, they're on the same level.

A mere two weeks after trading New England a 3rd rounder for him, the Vikings have waived Randy Moss for conduct detrimental to the team. Let’s take a look at where he could wind up. Teams are listed by waiver claim order, which is reverse order of record (tiebreaker: strength of schedule).

Oakland

Why it makes sense: They have a history of adding high profile players down on their luck, normally without a great deal of success. They have several injuries to receivers and are counting on Darrius Heyward Bey as their top receiver right now. At 4-4, the Raiders have a serious chance to make the playoffs and could see Moss as the finishing piece.

Why it doesn’t make sense: After the way it played out between Moss and the Raiders before, why would either side agree to a reunion.

Washington

Why it makes sense: They need a receiver opposite Santana Moss. Mike Shanahan has dealt with difficult personalities before, as has Donovan McNabb. They love adding high profile players and they are currently in a state of transition after a loss to Detroit, bringing in 20 free agents for workouts today, including JaMarcus Russell, so they might be willing to try anything. They’re also in apparent win now mode, trading for Donovan McNabb and Jammal Brown in the offseason.

Why it doesn’t make sense: They enduring a lot of chaos right now, with the Albert Haynesworth situation that won’t go away and the situation that doesn’t even need to be there with the benching of Donovan McNabb late against Detroit for Rex Grossman. Moss might tip them over the edge.

St. Louis

Why it makes sense: Sam Bradford’s receivers are dropping like flies, with Donnie Avery and Mark Clayton out for the season and Danario Alexander out for a few weeks. Moss gives the rookie QB a true experienced deep threat that he might need if they are to win this division.

Why it doesn’t make sense:  There’s generally an opposition among NFL head coaches about pairing a rookie quarterback with a diva receiver. They didn’t sign Terrell Owens this offseason so Steve Spagnuolo might buy into that opposition.

Miami

Why it makes sense: They don’t want him going to New England and he is an upgrade over Davone Bess and Brian Hartline.

Why it doesn’t make sense: He might not be a big enough upgrade to be worth the trouble. Wide receiver isn’t particularly a desperate need in town.

Chicago

Why it makes sense: If they don’t make the playoffs this year, it seems pretty likely that Lovie Smith, Mike Martz, Mike Tice, and Jerry Angelo will all be fired so there’s urgency in town. Cutler needs a true deep threat to catch his erratic deep throws, otherwise they could easily miss the playoffs.

Why it doesn’t make sense: They have refused to add high profile receivers in the past, for whatever reason.

Kansas City

Why it makes sense: Moss has experience with Matt Cassel and the Chiefs desperately need an elite receiver, as Dwayne Bowe doesn’t have the athleticism or the consistent hands to be one. Scott Pioli, along with Bill Belicheck, was the one to take the chance on Moss coming over from Oakland in 2007.

Why it doesn’t make sense: There was tension between Moss and Cassel when Cassel was the starter in New England. He obviously didn’t like that Cassel didn’t have the arm strength to hit him deep and often jogged out his routes instead of going full speed.

NY Jets

Why it makes sense: Rex Ryan doesn’t mind personalities and they want to keep him away from New England.

Why it doesn’t make sense: They don’t need a receiver at all. Moss would be caught in a logjam fighting for playing time, which won’t make him very happy, which could cause more harm than good.

New England

Why it makes sense: Moss was cut from Minnesota for many reasons, but one of them had to be the fact that he bashed their coaching staff in a post-game press conference and had nothing but praise for BB and co in New England. He obviously misses playing in New England and appears willing to admit his mistake and rejoin the Patriot way. The Patriots don’t have anywhere near the caliber deep threat that Moss provides on the roster right now and they made need that to go all the way. Plus, it would be hilarious and the ultimate kick in the groin to Minnesota for Moss to end up back in New England, just two weeks after they traded him to Minnesota for a 3rd rounder.

Why it doesn’t make sense: Maybe they have permanently moved on from Moss, though I doubt it. BB is willing to except anyone who buys into the Patriot way. The Pats do have the last waiver claim though so everyone else will have to pass him up before they get their chance. They can get him cheaper than everyone else though as they can pass on him in waivers and just sign him to a minimum contract, forcing Minnesota to pay the rest of Moss’ contract. Now THAT would be the ultimate kick to the groin for Minnesota. 

Guess who’s back! Brett Favre! Now I know what you’re thinking, didn’t he retire? Yes, he did, actually several times. I know what you’re thinking, didn’t he just 2 weeks ago say that he was done with football? Yes, but apparently that means nothing. Brett Favre has signed a 2 year deal with the Minnesota Vikings today and is expected to be the starting quarterback week 1, extending his record for most consecutive starts by an NFL player.

            If I were the Vikings, I’m not so sure I would have given him a deal. Yes, they needed a quarterback, but you’re getting a 40-year-old one who led the league in interceptions last year. On top of that, and possibly more important, he has a huge ego, like to the point where he thinks he’s above the team. He retires, wants to come back, is unsure about coming back, says he’s not coming back, and then 2 weeks later, comes into Viking camp where they had their own little quarterback battle going and expects to be the week 1 quarterback.

            What’s worse is that he’s right. He will be the week 1 quarterback. He’s just too damn talented to put on the bench, even if he is an asshole who thinks he is above the team. However, if he fails, he’s going to get yet another coach fired. It was likely Brad Childress’s idea to bring in Favre, even after he said no. It was Childress’s idea to throw out all of the franchise dignity and sign Favre. If the Vikings can’t make a deep playoff run, Childress will be gone.

            I wouldn’t be surprised if Favre only said no 2 weeks ago, because he didn’t want to go to training camp, which he does not like, knowing that the job would still be there for him in 2 weeks. That’s just the kind of guy Favre is.

            From a fantasy perspective, Favre is a decent QB1. I’ll update my official quarterback rankings later, but you can feel safe with him as your starting quarterback. He had surgery on the arm that caused him all of the problems the last. He is playing 8 of his games in a dome and we all know that Favre has struggled in the cold since turning 37 or so. He has Adrian Peterson at the running back position to open up passing lanes for him, but he’s going to be overdrafted because of his name, though I am operating from very little data about the average draft position of Favre. He has very little time to gel with his team and learn the playbook, which was supposed to be a crazy wildcat offense with Percy Harvin, Tavaris Jackson, and Adrian Peterson, which would have been deadly. Now we’ll probably see Favre just gun sling it 30 times a game, but still. He’ll have less than 3 weeks to gel with his team.

            Adrian Peterson should see a significant increase in his YPC this season, maybe up to 5 per game, with a true quarterback to open up running lanes, but be careful of Favre changing the offense to a pass heavy offense to suit himself, cutting down on Peterson’s carries, which would be very bad from a fantasy perspective. Bernard Berrian, Favre’s #1 option, is going to get a little bit of a bump up in my wide receiver rankings the next time I update them.

            As for Favre’s future, he has now ruined his reputation even more. In the past 18 months, he has thrown his old team under the bus, putting them in an awkward situation to start last year, gotten Eric Mangini fired, and now essentially barged into Viking camp expecting a starting job, not to mention the fact that he will now play for his former team’s biggest rival (Packers vs. Vikings just got a whole lot more exciting). He’s probably going to get Brad Childress fired in a few months and repeating this will he won’t he thing again next offseason. In the minds of many, he has gone from Hall of Famer to asshole. That’s not to say he’s not a Hall of Famer. He’ll get in 5 years after he finally stops playing, whenever that is. He will also have this whole will he unretire thing follow him probably until he dies. I won’t believe he’s retired until he’s dead (that may or may not be an exaggeration). 

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Brett Favre Minnesota Vikings Jersey

It is May the 2nd 2009, approximately 3 months into the NFL's off season, and more than 2 and a half months after Brett Favre's retirement. Yet, for some reason, I am still writing a blog about Brett Favre. Why, you may ask. Let's see what's happened in the last week.

Brett Favre was released by the New York Jets, seemingly because the Jets drafted quarterback Mark Sanchez's and needed room on the roster. However, 2 days later, reports came out that Brett Favre asked not once, but twice, to be released by the Jets. Why would a retired quarterback be that persistent in getting out of his contract? One day later, a plane from Minneapolis, whose Vikings are in need of a quarterback, to the small town of Hattiesburg, which Favre resides, which almost gets no planes coming in. Today, Minnesota coach Brad Childress has said that they will discuss the possibilities of Brett Favre, or rather that they won't not discuss Favre, which is code for, we are considering Brett Favre.

"We talk about everything," Childress said almost sarcastically. "So yeah, I'm sure we'll talk about that," in response to a question about Brett Favre on the Viking's first day of minicamp. Brett has remained quiet, but with more than 4 months to go until the season starts, I have to talk about the possibility of Brett to the Vikings.

First, I'll start by saying that it can't hurt the Vikings. Favre is better than Tavaris Jackson, Sage Rosenfels, and John David Booty and, most likely, their isn't a quarterback in that group that is the future franchise quarterback of the Vikings, whose growth the addition of Favre could stunt. The Vikings have a great defense, especially if Kevin and Pat Williams don't get suspended. They have a phenomenal running game which gets better with the addition of right tackle Phil Loadholt. They even have good receivers, with Bernard Berrian, 3rd year player Sidney Rice, and rookie Percy Harvin. They just don't have the quarterback.

Imagine how good those receivers get if someone like Favre comes in. Imagine how good Adrian Peterson gets if he no longer has to deal with guys stacking the box against him, along with the addition of a true right side blocker in Loadholt. Imagine how dangerous that offense is when combined with their excellent defense. They don't play in a good division. The Bears have a new quarterback who will have to learn the system. The Packers still have defensive issues. The Lions still suck. The addition of Favre could make this Vikings team a true title contender.

While the Vikings would be making a great move by bringing in Favre, Favre would be making a fool of himself by coming back again. He does this every year, if you want people to not get annoyed with you, shut up and stay out of the game. Now, let me say, if these are all rumors with no merit, then Favre I apologize for that statement (as if he actually reads my blog). Favre still has fans in Green Bay, why alienate them by coming back with your team's archrival? People still respect you despite the fact that you can't make up your mind, why risk ruining that? Favre will be a Hall of Famer as soon as he is eligible, but if he's wants people to still respect him when he finally does retire in 2010, or 2011, or 2015, then he needs to make up his mind.

Obviously, there is going to be a lot of Favre talk over the next few months, and even if he doesn't come back with the Vikings, or another team, remember the Browns have publicly said they will welcome him, before the season, the Favre talk isn't going to die until he sits a whole year. What happens if Tony Romo, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, or (hopefully not) Tom Brady gets hurt early in the season and has to miss the year. Could Favre pass up those opportunities? My gut now says no. It's up to him to prove me wrong.