The Football Fan Spot

This is a bit old, but I felt it was a story that needed to be told.

The following is simply a statement of facts that may or may not be coincidental. I’m not trying to insinuate anything. I’ll leave it up to the reader whether or not he wants to insinuate something. But please do. It’s more fun that way.

Roughly 2 weeks before the 2011 NFL Draft I get an email from someone who will remain nameless for the sake of privacy.

“I have a question for you concerning your Mock Draft could you please give me a call at 555-555-5555 [not his actual number in case you were wondering].  Thank you.”

My initial thought was “that’s weird.” I get emails from readers all the time asking me about my mock draft, but never anyone telling me to call them. That’s sketch.

But I decided to google the man who will remain nameless. He left me his name, so I might as well google him to see who he is. My google search came up with a Bears assistant offensive coach under Mike Martz.

My next thought “oh shit, is he gonna yell at me for calling Jay Cutler a pussy?”

But then I calmed down and thought about how awesome this was. He said he wanted to talk to me about my mock draft so this is probably not about Cutler (side note, I gave Cutler a lot of criticism after not demanding to go back into the game against Green Bay in the NFC Championship and rightfully so, but he really impressed me with his play this season. It’s a shame that he had to miss the whole season with an injury Ben Roethlisberger has been playing with for weeks…er…I mean Jay Cutler isn’t a pussy).

Anyway, I was excited about the Bears reaching out to me. Maybe they want to give me some sort of inside source or something. So I gave the guy a call and he basically told me that Mike Martz was starting a new project where he would use specific mock drafts to help them predict what players would be available when, presumably to help them decide if they needed to make a trade or not. They picked a select few along with mine, Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, walterfootball, ourlads.com scouting services, etc, so pretty big deal. And he wanted me to put my mock draft in a spreadsheet and an easy to read format.

Awesome!

So I did that and I sent it over to him on draft day. I got a response.

“Thanks man this is really cool.  It will be interesting to see if we take the UNC guy [Marvin Austin, my prediction for them]. We like him but the draft is like a wildcard sometimes.”

So the top ten came and went and I had been doing really well. I had accurately picked 8 of the top 10 (My top 10 was Newton, Miller, Dareus, Green, Peterson, Jones, Amukamara, Locker, Watt, Gabbert).

And he emails me again around early 20s, after Kansas City had traded down from 21 to 27.

Him: “Ok so who do you think we take now?”

Me: “I'm sticking with my original pick.”

Him: “We need ol though”

Me: “Again, I don't think any of them fall. Seattle [24], Baltimore [26], and Kansas City [27] all need tackles. Only Sherrod and Carimi left. Of course, if either of them do fall, that would obviously be the pick.”

Him: “Good call so far.”

And then we’re at pick 25, Seattle on the board takes Alabama offensive tackle James Carpenter, a pick that really threw me off. I decided to send this to the assistant who will remain nameless after pick 25, during pick 26.

“Carpenter's certainly a surprise to Seattle though. Thought he'd go more mid round 2, after Carimi, Sherrod, Ijalana. Maybe you guys will get your tackle.”

Then I see something weird. Baltimore missed their pick so Kansas City got to jump ahead of them one. “Haha, what dumasses!” I thought. And then Kansas City took a wide receiver, Pittsburgh’s Jonathan Baldwin, so I looked like a bit of a dumass.

And Chicago got their tackle at 29, Wisconsin’s Gabe Carimi, and the first round ended and I had to wait until the next day for round 2. However, stories started trickling out about why Baltimore missed their pick. Apparently it was Chicago’s fault. Baltimore and Chicago had a deal where Chicago would move up and take a tackle and then at the last second they decided not to, for an unknown reason.

Uh oh.

They weren’t REALLY listening to me were they? They weren’t REALLY listening to me when I said they wouldn’t be able to get a tackle at 29, only to have me email during pick 26 when they were striking a deal with Baltimore to move up to get a tackle saying that now I thought they could get their tackle at 29, were they? I’m just a sports writer. Why would they listen to me? I mean I know I had been doing well and he told me I was doing a good job, but I’m just a sports writer. What the hell do I know?

Apparently the Ravens weren’t too happy about the Bears taking back their offer to move up at the last second. Even though Baltimore got their guy (Colorado cornerback Jimmy Smith), Baltimore still demanded Chicago give up a future pick as compensation.

Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti had this to say “It is, in my opinion, a deviation from their [The Bears’] great legacy.”

Uh oh. Hopefully they weren’t listening to me. I’m an idiot.

It was roughly halfway through the 4th quarter of yesterday’s Bears/Broncos game. I sat there wondering, was there any possible way to spin Tebow’s performance that didn’t make him look completely awful. It’s tough to do when a quarterback is 3 of 16 and losing 10-0 at home to a Caleb Hanie and Marion Barber led Bears team that just lost at home to the Chiefs.

Some of that good be blamed on his receivers. His receivers combined to drop about 5 easy passes, and a few more that would have been tough catches, but still hit their hands. Demaryius Thomas had at least 3 drops, including an easy, long touchdown go right through his hands. You could also chalk some of it up to good defense by the Bears. The Bears’ defensive scheme was one unlike anything Tebow has ever seen. You could also chalk it up to his youth. He was in his 11th start. He was allowed to have a bad game. But there was no way to spin it positively for Tebow. He was terrible. And then Tebow reminded me why I love him. I didn’t need to spin it positively. He did that for me.

What Tebow did in the last half of the 4th quarter and overtime yesterday was beyond words. There aren’t words to describe it. It was “Tebow.” Tebow was 18 of his last 24, to finish a modest 21 of 40 for 236 yards, 1 touchdown, and a pick, but what he did late in that game was anything but a modest performance.

Tebow led a touchdown drive down 10-0 with 4:34 left in the 4th quarter, going 7 for 7 and picking up all 63 yards by himself. Through the air. But with 2:08 left on the clock and no timeouts down 10-7, a win still seemed like a long shot as the Broncos would have to go for the onside kick. That drive was fun to watch, but Tebow would eventually lose. Or so it seemed.

It seemed even more like a long shot when the Broncos didn’t recover the onside kick. The ball hung in the air for a long time and a Bronco player was able to get a hand on it, but the Bears were able to recover. And it seemed like Tebow mania was over, ending the way it started, with an onside recovery in Miami. It was fun while it lasted, but it couldn’t be kept up. Everything regresses towards the mean. Everything becomes logical again.

Best case scenario, the Tebow would get the ball back on his own 20 with less than 20 seconds left needing to drive at least 40 yards and stop the clock to even give Matt Prater a shot at a ridiculously long field goal. Even Tebow couldn’t do that. And then it happened. Marion Barber ran out of bounds! The clock stopped!!! There was hope!!! The Broncos got the 3 and out they needed and gave Tebow the ball back with 53 seconds left on the clock at his own 20, needing to drive at least 40 yards and stop the clock to set Prater up for a prayer of a field goal.  It wouldn’t be easy, but it became possible.

And that was exactly what Tebow did. He led them 39 yards on 3 of 5 passing with a scramble out of bounds for 1 to stop the clock. But it would still take a career high 59 yard field goal by Matt Prater to even send it to overtime. At this point, however, there was no doubt in my mind. I was a believer again. I don’t think there was any doubt in Tebow’s mind, in Prater’s mind, in John Fox’s mind, heck (I would say hell, but that doesn’t seem fitting in an article about Tebow) I bet the Bears even knew it was going in. That’s the power of Tebow. He makes you believe in the unbelievable. And what everyone expecting happened, Prater drained it, down the middle. He probably could have made it from 65+ plus if he needed to.

There was still overtime, but that seemed like a formality after what had just happened. The Broncos had Tebow. They would surely win the coin toss and drive all the way down field to score and win their 3rd overtime game in 8 games (3-0). But the Bears got the ball on the coin toss.

They drove downfield and the way the Bears drove down the field was crazy. They were supposed to be flat coming into overtime. How could they not after what had just happened? They were on the plane home enjoying a win and an end to Tebowmania, at least mentally they were, and then all of a sudden they had to play overtime.  Instead, Caleb Hanie turned a near sack into a completion for a sizeable gain off his back foot, Marion Barber (the goat from regulation) made a sensational diving catch. Even Roy Williams made a catch. It was a miracle!

They drove all the way down into field goal range with one of the league’s best kickers, Robbie Gould warming up, after nailing a 57 yarder earlier in the game. At the Broncos’ 38, a field goal would have been 55 or 56 yards. But you know the Broncos kept believing. The next play was a Marion Barber run, he got 5 yards, which would have made it a very makeable field goal for Gould and he almost broke it for more. But that didn’t happen. He fumbled. Wesley Woodyard stripped it and the Broncos had the ball.  And Tebow took that ball and he drove it, all the way down to the Chicago 33 yard line, setting up Prater for a 51 yard field goal, right down the middle. Ball game.

It was insane. That win was literally impossible. In order for it to happen, Tebow, who was 3 of 16, had to lead 3 scoring drives, his defense had to get a 3 and out, and Marion Barber had to run out of bounds, stop the clock, and fumble in overtime. The odds of all that happening had to be even less than the Red Sox missing the playoffs in September (oh…forgot about that…damnit!). But it happened. It wasn’t logical. It was Tebow.

If you think the only thing Tebow had to do with the game was the 18 of 24 he was in the last 4 minutes of the 4th and overtime, you’re an idiot. I’m sorry. You are. That doesn’t just happen. I’m not saying it was divine intervention, but that doesn’t just happen, especially not after all the crazy ways Tebow has won already this season. A quarterback who completes less than 50% of his passes doesn’t just go 7-1 with a team that was 6-22 in their last 28 under the last quarterback. Marion Barber doesn’t just run out of bounds there. The Broncos don’t just win the way they did yesterday, unless they have a leader who possesses something that I’m not even sure we have a word for. It’s that thing we just refer to as “it.” Intangibles exist.

If you disagree, try to convince me that the Broncos win that game if Kyle Orton is the quarterback. Kyle Orton was on pace to break the single season passing yards record last year on a 3-10 team. There is absolutely nothing about Kyle Orton that inspires his teammates, that makes his teammates believe in the unbelievable. Because when you really get down to it, that is Tebow’s greatest skill. He makes people believe in the unbelievable. His teammates would run through a wall for him, and I don’t just mean his Bronco teammates. He did this at Florida too.

It doesn’t necessarily have anything to do with religion, but at the end of the day, what “Tebowing” is is not going down on one knee and praying in unexpected situations, it’s about believing in the unbelievable and making everyone believe with you. And that’s something that so few people in the world can do, and even fewer in the National Football League and sports in general. That’s what Tebow is about.

"If you believe, sometimes unbelievable things can be possible." -Tim Tebow

Aside from that ability, my favorite thing about Tebow is how the Broncos put him at starting quarterback expecting him to fail. You can’t convince me otherwise. Neither John Fox nor John Elway drafted him and Fox had him as low as 4th string in training camp. They didn’t like him because he didn’t look good in practice and he didn’t look good in practice because it wasn’t the 4th quarter of a close game.

But they couldn’t just get rid of him, the fans would riot. So they let him play, but they made sure to sell his top receiver, Brandon Lloyd, for pennies on the dollar, a 5th rounder for the league’s leading receiver in 2010, even though they could have gotten probably at least a 4th rounder in the offseason as compensation had he left. And once he flopped, they would be free to draft their own guy.

It was like John Fox and John Elway were Max Bialystock and Leo Bloom in The Producers and Tebow was “Springtime for Hitler.” For those unfamiliar with the plot of that movie, Bloom is an accountant who convince Bialystock, a Broadway producer, that he can actually make more money if he produces a complete flop that lasts one night, so the two of them hire a former Nazi screenwriter to right a play called “Springtime for Hitler,” glorifying Hitler, in hopes that the show would flop and they’d make their money.

But like Tebow, “Springtime for Hitler” didn’t flop. And I love Elway and Fox’s reactions after every single one of Tebow’s wins. It’s complete shock followed, by acceptance, a face of “I don’t know how this is working and I never expected it would work, but it’s working and I’ll take it.” I love it.

I am in no way defending child molestation. I am defending Joe Paterno. Joe Paterno is not a child molester, but with the way the media is crucifying Paterno so quickly, you’d think he was. Jerry Sandusky is a child molester, or at least he is allegedly one. Remember we are all innocent until proven guilty in this country (although right now he looks pretty guilty). But that’s not my argument. My argument is in defense of Joe Paterno.

This is what we know. A graduate assistant who Joe Paterno barely knew tells him that he saw Jerry Sandusky raping a little boy in the shower. Why this graduate assistant didn’t intervene, I don’t know, but again, not part of my argument. Paterno has known Sandusky for about 30 years. He trusts Sandusky. He looks pretty guilty of poor placement of trust, but after all some people like Sandusky are just good at fooling people.

Paterno then reports it to the administration. He doesn’t report it to the police, which is why a lot of people are very angry, but remember, he trusts Sandusky, he barely knows the graduate assistant, and the details of what exactly the graduate assistant told Paterno are fuzzy at best right now. He did his part by telling the administration.

So he reports it to the administration. The administration conducts a little “investigation” finds out something they didn’t want to know and sweeps it under the rug. As of last week, Sandusky, who is retired, was on Penn State’s campus. The administration looks pretty guilty of covering up a terrible crime, one that Sandusky should serve a long jail sentence for.

But what’s unknown is, was Paterno aware of this investigation and more importantly, was he aware of the results of the investigation. Or did the administration lie to him too? We don’t know that. A lot of people are acting like they know that and calling for Paterno’s job, but we don’t know that.

Joe Paterno is one of the greatest coaches in sports history, any sport, any level. He’s football’s John Wooden. He is the winningest coach in college football history. He has been with Penn State since 1950, since 1966 as their head football coach. And on top of that, everything he has done in his past screams that he is a man of high character. His former players will all vouch for him. Covering something like this up just seems so out of character for someone like Paterno. It would be like finding out Coach K at Duke covered up child molestation by one of his former assistant coaches, only more unbelievable. And that’s why I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt.

I think others should give him the benefit of the doubt as well. He’s done so much for college football, Penn State, and the players he has coached for any of that to just be forgotten at the first sign of anything suspicious. He deserves better than to be forced to retire after this season at the age of 84, especially since he is being forced to retire by the same people who actually covered up the crime, the Penn State administration, who, as of right now, still have jobs.

I support Paterno. I defend Paterno. Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe I’m just defending him because I know Paterno wanted to die coaching Penn State football and for that reason, I wanted to see him do it. Maybe I’m just defending him because I admire him so much, but I’d rather be wrong than prematurely crucify someone with Paterno’s track record of moral integrity. 

1. Keep Terry Francona

Well I guess it’s too late for this. Francona met with Red Sox executives Friday morning and an official announcement has confirmed what most in the know have assumed for the 24 hours prior, Terry Francona is no longer the manager of the Boston Red Sox. It’s being spun as mutual, but that’s bullshit. One of two things happened. Francona was fired (or more politely, he just didn’t have his option picked up for the next 2 years) and management is saying it’s mutual and Francona is being polite and not saying it wasn’t. Or Francona was fired and both sides agreed to call it mutual just because it sounds better. This was no more mutual than any “mutual” breakup of a couple.

I completely disagree with their decision to let him go. They’re just making the scapegoat. He’s won 2 World Series in 8 years. They hadn’t won for 86 years when he got there. I don’t always agree with everything he does. I happen to think he overmanages and overthinks his lineup, but I can live with that. The players love him. He completely changed the locker room culture of this team. There isn’t a better option than him out there.

It’s not Tito’s fault the team was built such that it was so top heavy that it couldn’t handle injuries or struggles to key guys. Tito didn’t give John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka big contracts only to have them be completely useless (for different reasons), down the stretch. Tito didn’t sign Carl Crawford, who went on to have a lower on base percentage this year than Adam Dunn (look it up).

I’m not saying fire Theo Epstein, but I don’t think it should have been an either/or type thing. We won 90 games this year. If we tweaked a few things in the offseason, replaced JD Drew’s, Mike Cameron’s, and Marco Scutaro’s combined 28 million in expiring salary with depth, we’re a lot better of a team.

Now, best case scenario we hire in house and promote bench coach DeMarlo Hale. Hale is an extension of Francona and was interviewed by the Blue Jays for their managerial job last offseason (they eventually went with former Red Sox pitching coach John Farrell). However, rumor seems to be that Hale got let go as well Friday, so that seems unlikely.

Other popularly rumored options are Phillies’ bench coach Pete Mackanin, former Mets’ manager and current ESPN analyst Bobby Valentin, former Red Sox scapegoat Bill Buckner (just kidding), Tampa Bay’s bench coach Dave Martinez, and even (though I find this very hard to believe), former Yankees and Dodgers skipper Joe Torre. Personally, if it has to be an outside hire, my favorite is not on that list.

As weird as this sounds, my choice of outside hire would be former A’s and Brewers skipper Ken Macha. I’ve always liked him. He managed the A’s when they were a perennial playoff team and was fired after coming up short of the World Series in 2006, a move I didn’t agree with. They haven’t made the playoffs since. Macha spent 2009 and 2010 in Milwaukee with limited success, but I think he’s still a good manager. He’s a former minor league manager of the Pawtucket Red Sox so he has some experience within the organization. But if it were up to me, Tito would still be the skipper. Let’s move on to fixing to the roster.

2. Resign David Ortiz

Ortiz’ OPS in 2011 was .952. Though only that’s the 6th highest total of his career, it fits in pretty well with the range of OPS he had in his glory days (2003-2007). In that stretch his OPS was between .961 and 1.066 every season. .952 is not too far removed from that and that number was even higher before a back injury slowed him a bit down the stretch. That number was 2nd on our team behind Gonzalez and his 29 homeruns were 2nd behind Jacoby Ellsbury on the team. He can’t run and he can’t field, but there’s no question he’s one of our best hitters. Plus, he just wouldn’t look right in another uniform.

If Francona has to go, we need to keep at least this part of our team stable. He’s 36 in November, but a 2 year deal with a team option for a 3rd year at about 10 million per year is a very good value for him and that seems to be what people are predicting he’ll want from the team. He’d definitely take a hometown discount. He wants to return. We should want him back.

3. Don’t resign Papelbon

If you had asked me two weeks ago, I would have said, we have to bring back Papelbon. In fact, I had this very same discussion with a friend at a Red Sox game a few weeks ago (Tuesday the 20th’s game against Baltimore). The following is basically a summary of my argument.

I am a huge fan of Moneyball and a big part of Moneyball is that the closer position is overrated and overpaid. In fact, Billy Beane used to have a different closer every year and trade him at the end of the year for a prospect and he’d almost always win the deal.

However, we aren’t the Oakland A’s. We have money. If there’s one thing that Billy Beane isn’t very good at it’s getting people to come to the ballpark. A large reason behind that is the fact that the A’s trade their stars all the time. They always sell high, which is smart for a stock trader, but as a general manager of a baseball team, it leaves the fans with no one to latch onto.

Quick, think of the Oakland A’s right now. Who is the first player who comes to mind? Chances are, a third of all people won’t be able to think of any, another third will think of someone who isn’t even on the team anymore, and the final third would all think of a different player. I’m originally from the Bay Area. A’s commercials are pathetic. They had to put Mark Ellis as the lead in a commercial once and now he’s not even there.

In baseball terms Papelbon might not be worth the 12 or so million dollars per year he wants, but the front office is working with a payroll upwards of 160 million. You find somewhere in that payroll for Papelbon. Nothing compares to that feeling when you’re in the ballpark and “Shipping up to Boston” comes on after the bottom of the 8th with a lead and you know the game is over because Papelbon doesn’t blow saves (to this point he had only blown one all season). Sure, we might be able to get someone who does his job almost as well for significantly less money, but why do that if we don’t need to? It’s more fun with Papelbon.

Papelbon blew a save that day. I literally made that argument after the bottom of the 8th when “Shipping up to Boston” came on. I jinxed us. We lost 7-5. About a week later, Papelbon would blow his 3rd save of the year, leading 4-3 with 2 outs and 2 strikes, in a game that would end our season.

During every Red Sox game I’ve ever seen on television or in person where Papelbon comes into the game with a lead, I do the same thing. I count strikes and outs. Pointer finger on my left hand is 1 strike, pointer and pinky on my left hand is 2 strikes, pointer on my right is one out, pointer and pinky my right hand is 2 outs and with 2 outs and 2 strikes, I bring both hands together, touch the fingers, and wait for strike 3, two thumbs up (I’m weird). During game 162 of this season, the thumbs didn’t come up. Neither of them. I sat dumbfounded staring at my TV with my pinkies and pointers touching for about 20 minutes (not even making this up), trying to figure out what happened (I then proceeded to attempt to rip my head off. It didn’t work).

The point is, closers are always replaceable. I looked at our payroll for next year (more on this later) and at the end of it, the difference between signing Papelbon for 12 million and signing someone like Jose Valverde or Ryan Madson for 7 million is roughly the amount we’d need to pay a back end of the rotation guy, which we desperately need. Because of big, overpaid contracts like Carl Crawford’s and John Lackey’s, we don’t have a ton of money to play with this offseason. We have some, but we also have our fair share of needs. I don’t see how Papelbon fits and he’s no longer an absolutely necessity.

3. Get rid of John Lackey

Speaking of big, overpaid contracts, meet John Lackey, the worst contract in the league (owed about 48 million dollars over the next 3 years). After a disappointing first year with the Red Sox in 2010, a 4.40 ERA, his highest since 2004, everyone thought Lackey would bounce back this year. He did the complete opposite of that. His ERA rose another 2 points to 6.41. How he somehow went 12-12, I don’t know.

On top of this, his body language is terrible; he frequently yells at his fielders, complains about cheap runs, and in his final start of the season he complained about being pulled in the 7th with the tying run on in arguably the biggest game of the season up to that point. You only get left in the game in that situation if you’re the ace. Last I checked, you can’t be an ace if your ERA is in the mid 6s. And from what I’ve heard, his teammates don’t even like him. I’m not completely blaming this guy for their late season collapse, but having a cancer like that can’t help.

Speaking of cancer, I had sympathy for Lackey at the start of the season. His wife was going through breast cancer and he seemed genuinely distraught about it. That’s an acceptable excuse for pitching like crap. He had the sympathy vote. However, he divorced his wife in August and then blew up when the media found out a month later. At the very least, that kills his sympathy vote. At the most, he’s a complete dick who files for divorce from a cancer patient. (Just a side note, Lackey’s wife is WAY better looking than he is. Lackey is probably one of the 5 ugliest men on earth, along with Coach K and Tony Dungy).

I understand Lackey will be extremely hard to move, but we have to do everything we can to get rid of him. He’s a negative value to this team. We have two options and either one of them is fine with me. We trade him somewhere for a no name prospect and pay more than half of his remaining contract just so the other team will even consider taking him on. Or we trade him somewhere for an equally or near equally bad contract. If we were a small market team, the former would be the right move, but we’re not. We can afford to take on another bad contract in return as long as it means we get a player who might possibly be semi productive for us.

Peter Gammons threw out Barry Zito's and Carlos Zambrano’s names a few days ago. However, it appears the Giants are keeping Zito and want him to compete for their 5th starter role. Meanwhile, Zambrano has a lot less on his deal than Lackey does. Zambrano could be a free agent next offseason. Lackey has 3 more years to go.

So if not either of them, how about Jason Bay? The contracts match up, 3 years 47 million for Lackey, 3 years 51 million for Bay. The Mets need another starting pitcher and hope Lackey can bounce back. The Red Sox need a right field replacement for JD Drew and Jason Bay had a .921 OPS in 2009 for us before he signed in New York. He can handle playing in a big market and his stroke is perfect for Fenway.

Side note, after the 2009 season, I did an article similar to this, only it was in retrospect. I argued that we should have signed Bay instead of Lackey and used the 7 million dollars we used on Bay’s replacement Mike Cameron on a back end starter. I was right, but only by default because, as far as I know, Bay isn’t a dick. He’s just unproductive. But I definitely would have preferred giving Bay 85 million over 5 years than giving Lackey than same amount. Actually, here’s a list of things I would have rather done with that 85 million dollars than give it to John Lackey (in order).

4. Give it to Carlos Zambrano

3. Give it to Barry Zito

2. Give it to Jason Bay

1. Light it on fire

Anyway, this deal makes sense for both teams. Neither team has anything to lose and both take a chance on upside that these guys find their old form. We need a right fielder. He doesn’t have to be dependable because we have Josh Reddick just in case, but if Bay can revive his career anywhere, I think it’s in Fenway. However, this move leaves us very thin in the starting rotation. Say what you want about Lackey, he was 3rd on the team in starts (and you wonder why we missed the playoffs). If he’s gone, Beckett and Lester are the only two guys we can count on to be in our rotation for next year. Let’s try to fix that.

4. Sign Paul Maholm and Jon Garland

You’re probably wondering, why Maholm and Garland? Why not try to make a big splash for CC or Carpenter or Buehrle? Two reasons, one we don’t have the money. Adrian Gonzalez’s extension kicks in this year, as does Clay Buchholz’ significantly smaller extension. We also have to deal with Jacoby’s arbitration case (more on that later), which could pay him about 7 million dollars next year based on what Hunter Pence got with similar stats last year and that’s assuming Ellsbury doesn’t win MVP.

Two, and I want to stress this, I want us to copy what the Yankees did last offseason. Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, Russell Martin, Eric Chavez, and Andruw Jones were all steals. They bought low on a bunch of guys and some didn’t pan out, but some did. We need to do something similar. This applies more to Garland (coming off shoulder surgery) than it does to Maholm. Garland could sign for an incentive laden one year deal.

Before getting hurt this year, Garland threw 190+ innings in 9 straight seasons from 2002-2010. His ERA never went above 4.90 in a single season in that span. If he can bounce back from the only major injury he’s ever had in his major league career, he’s exactly what we didn’t have last year, a consistent starter after Lester and Beckett. Besides, Garland is perfect for Fenway. He’s a groundball pitcher (16th in the league with a 1.12 groundball to flyball ratio in his last full season 2010). Fenway is a small ballpark. Pitchers who get the ball airborne are in trouble. We can get this guy for 3 million because he’s being undervalued, just like Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon were last offseason.

Moving on to Maholm, it would take a medium sized contract to sign him. He’s owed 9.5 million dollars by the Pirates next year, should they pick up his option, but sources say they won’t. We could get him for about 3 years 24 million at the most. Epstein has been terrible with big contracts (Matt Clement, Julio Lugo, JD Drew, Dice-K, Mike Cameron, John Lackey, Carl Crawford). I don’t think he’s ever hit on one and I think he knows it. He even said he’s going to be rethinking how the team approaches free agency this offseason. Signing someone like Maholm to be a medium sized contract is a necessary shift from the approach of old.

More background on Maholm, since a lot of people don’t know who he is coming from Pittsburgh. He’s pitched in 160 innings or more in every full season in the majors since 2006. He’s still only 29. He’s coming off a career high 3.66 ERA season. For the record, John Lackey had only three seasons with an ERA lower than 3.66 when we gave him 85 million over 5 in 2009. 3. Out of 9 full seasons. Maholm is consistent. He’s still relatively young and coming off a career high. He’s underrated. And he’s a groundball pitcher (20th in 2010 with a 1.08 groundball to flyball ratio). He’s perfect to be our 4th starter.

So we have Beckett and Lester as our top 2. Buchholz was activated for the season finale, but didn’t pitch because, you know, we thought we were going to win. He should be good to go in 2012 as our #3. Maholm is a consistent #4 and Garland should be able to bounce back and be a dependable #5. I’m a lot more confident with those #4 and #5 starters than I was with Lackey and Daisuke coming into 2010.

Maybe we sign a veteran like Livan Hernandez or someone to a minor league deal too. We have guys like Michael Bowden, Felix Doubront, and Kyle Weiland in the minors as well in case we need a spot start. And then of course we have Wakefield (more on him later) and Aceves out of the bullpen who can start if need be.

5. Resign Jason Varitek and Tim Wakefield

These guys will keep getting one year deals no questions asked until they decide to hang it up. There’s not even a question here. Both signed for 2 million last offseason. That sounds reasonable for this season as well, provided neither retire.

6. Don’t extend Jacoby Ellsbury

I love Ellsbury. He’s coming off an amazing season where he almost carried us into the postseason. He had an OPS of .928, stole 39 bases, had 32 homeruns, played spotless defense in center field, and most importantly, always came up clutch when no one else did. He might be the MVP of the league. However, he’s got two more years of arbitration. He had almost as many DL stints in 2010 as he had extra base hits.

Let’s make him put up one more good year before we give him a giant contract. His arbitration will probably get him around 7 or 8 million this offseason. That’s a lot better than giving him 16-18 million per year over 5 years and then finding out he’s a one year wonder as he and Crawford count their money in the outfield until 2017. Even if it means we have to give him Crawford type money next offseason. With Daisuke’s and Bobby Jenks’ deals coming off the books after next season, we can afford to wait and pay him more next offseason.

7. Sign Javier Lopez

We have Wakefield and Aceves as our long guys, either Madson or Valverde as our closer, Bard as the primary set up guy, Franklin Morales back after arbitration, Bobby Jenks unfortunately back with one more year on his deal, we need one more guy for that pen and it needs to be a lefty since Morales is the only lefty setup guy in that situation. This unfortunately means there’s not going to be room for Matt Albers, an arbitration case, to be brought back, unless he’ll agree to a minor league deal. Albers was a surprisingly good reliever for us this year, but he sucked down the stretch. Instead, we bring back a familiar face and a 2 time World Series Champion, Javier Lopez (2007 with Boston, 2010 with San Francisco).

He’s the best lefty on the market, and I feel like he’ll be undervalued once again. Lopez has ERAs of 2.34 and 2.72 in the last two years and had ERAs of 2.70, 3.10, 2.43 in 3 years with Boston from 2006-2008 before a fluke down year in 2009 that ended his time with the team. He’s good and we need a lefty specialist and we know he can pitch in Boston. Sign him.

8. Bring back Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Jed Lowrie, Alfredo Aceves, Daniel Bard, and Franklin Morales

All 5 are arbitration eligible and all 5 can be brought back on cheap one year deals. This roster is rounding into form. As far as I see it, there are 2 spots left on the 25 man roster. One of them will not be occupied by one of our midseason trade acquisitions, who is also arbitration eligible, or another arbitration eligible outfielder.

9. Sign Willie Harris over Mike Aviles and Darnell McDonald

Mike Aviles hit well down the stretch and I’d love if he could come back on a minor league deal for depth purposes, but we already have a utility man in Jed Lowrie. Aviles was brought in to be an outfielder who hits lefties. However, he doesn’t have the speed that Harris has and Harris can provide the same ability as an outfielder who hits lefties that Aviles and another Francona favorite Darnell McDonald has.

Harris has an on base percentage against lefties of .407 since 2008. Between him and Bay, we’d have two outfielders who could hit lefties, weaknesses of both Josh Reddick and Carl Crawford, and Harris can be a pinch runner late in games. Watching Aviles and Lars Anderson (a first baseman) pinch run consistently in September was just sad. We need a Dave Roberts type. I’d like Aviles and McDonald to stay with the team on the 40 man roster on a minor league deal, but that’s not necessarily a given. One final thing.

10. Let Scutaro go

Scutaro has a 6 million dollar team option for 2012. Scutaro is a nice player who hit well down the stretch (one of the few), but he’s not worth that for next year. We have Jed Lowrie who can play shortstop from time to time. We also have a prospect in Jose Iglesias who should be our starting shortstop next year.

The Red Sox have had a revolving door at shortstop since Nomar was traded in 2004 (Orlando Cabrera, Edgar Renteria, Alex Gonzalez, Julio Lugo, Alex Gonzalez again, Marco Scutaro and I’m sure I’m missing some). Iglesias has the upside to end that and we need that. He’s not the best hitter, but the report on him says he’s a future gold glover at the position and can be a top fielder shortstop from the word go should he start in 2012.

He’s cheaper than Scutaro. He has more upside than Scutaro. He’s a better fielder than Scutaro now. He’s not as good a hitter as Scutaro, but we have other guys in the lineup to pick up the slack. As long as he hits .250ish, we should be fine given his glove at short. Worst case, Jed Lowrie has to play shortstop.

Let’s look at the roster

C Jason Varitek- 2 million

C Jarrod Saltalamacchia- 2 million (estimation)

1B Adrian Gonzalez- 21 million

2B Dustin Pedroia- 8 million

SS Jose Iglesias- 2.06 million

SS Jed Lowrie- 1 million (estimation)

3B Kevin Youkilis- 12 million

LF Carl Crawford- 19.5 million

CF Jacoby Ellsbury- 7 million (estimation)

CF Willie Harris- 1 million

RF Jason Bay- 17 million

RF Josh Reddick- .5 million (estimation)

DH David Ortiz- 10 million

SP Josh Beckett- 15.75 million

SP Jon Lester- 7.625 million

SP Clay Buchholz- 3.5 million

SP Paul Maholm- 8 million (estimation)

SP Jon Garland- 3 million (estimation)

RP Tim Wakefield- 2 million

RP Alfredo Aceves- 1.5 million (estimation)

RP Bobby Jenks- 6 million

RP Javier Lopez- 3 million (estimation)

RP Franklin Morales- 1 million (estimation)

RP Daniel Bard- 1 million (estimation)

RP Ryan Madson- 7 million (estimation)

Total payroll: $162,335,000

That’s actually lower than this year so if my estimations were on the low side anywhere, this roster still makes sense. How about some thoughts from Red Sox nation?

The object is simple. Build a 53 man roster out of active (non-injured) NFL players. Each team must be represented at least once. So, anyone want to play us?

QB: Tom Brady*, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning*

RB: Adrian Peterson*, Chris Johnson*, Arian Foster, LeGarrette Blount

FB: Vonta Leach, Greg Jones

WR: Andre Johnson*, Calvin Johnson*, Larry Fitzgerald*, Roddy White, Mike Wallace

TE: Antonio Gates*, Jason Witten*

OT: Jake Long*, Joe Thomas*, Andrew Whitworth, Kareem McKenzie

G: Carl Nicks*, Josh Sitton, Logan Mankins

C: Nick Mangold*, Matt Kalil

DT: Kyle Williams (NT/3-4 DE), Ndamukong Suh, Haloti Ngata (3-4 DE/NT), Antonio Garay (NT)

DE: Justin Smith (3-4 DE)*, Dwight Freeney*, Julius Peppers, Tamba Hali (3-4 OLB), DeMarcus Ware* (3-4 OLB)

OLB: Clay Matthews (3-4 OLB), Lance Briggs, David Hawthorne, Chad Greenway (3-4 OLB)

MLB: Patrick Willis*, Lawrence Timmons, London Fletcher

CB: Asante Samuel, Nnamdi Asomugha, Champ Bailey, Darrelle Revis*

S: Troy Polamalu*, Ed Reed, Quintin Mikell, Nick Collins

K: Sebastian Janikowski*

P: Shane Lechler

KR: Brad Smith (WR)

PR: Tramon Williams (CB)

ESPN the Magazine published a very controversial article this week. It first got buzz, and negative buzz I might add, for a photoshopped picture of what Michael Vick would look like white. I didn’t understand what the big deal was. As I white person, I would not be offended if someone photoshopped Peyton Hillis black (a white man playing a position where most players are black) or if someone had photoshopped Tom Brady black and even if someone had photoshopped me black. I’d be interested to see what I would look like black, honestly, just out of curiousity.

However, I read more into the article. The title had a lot of people angered. “What if Michael Vick were white?” My first thought was “uh oh.” Someone wrote ANOTHER article blaming Michael Vick’s arrest on the fact that he is black or any negative public reception after his return from prison on the fact that he is black. I find that notion to be absolutely racist because it suggests that all black people are bad people who do bad things and they can’t help it. I find that demeaning to black people. It also suggests that all white people are born with a silver spoon in their mouth and nothing bad ever happens to them. I also find that demeaning.

However, I read the article, and even though I wanted to hate it, I couldn’t. Someone had written an article about Michael Vick and race and I didn’t hate it. The reason behind that is because the article is, in fact, not about race primarily. It’s about Vick’s upbringing, which the author, Toure, ties to race with statistics that say that blacks are more likely than whites to be born into a single parent household in a bad part of town with little to no money, little to no adult supervision, and little to no positive role models. Let’s take a more in depth look at this article.

“Race is an undeniable and complex element of Vick's story, both because of his style as well as the rarity of black QBs in the NFL. A decade after he became the first black QB to be drafted No. 1 overall, about one in five of the league's passers is African-American, compared with two-thirds of all players.” 

I would agree with that statement. Look, I’m not trying to pretend that Vick isn’t black. All I’ve ever argued is that Vick hasn’t ever been received differently because of his race. Most people who don’t like Vick (me included) don’t like Vick because of what he did and because I don’t think just because he served his time, he’s necessarily a changed man. I would feel the same way if he were white or black or orange or purple.

There are people out there who hate Vick because he’s black. I’m not going to pretend that racism doesn’t still exist in America. It does. But it’s simply not that prevalent. Racism is never going to be completely gone, just like it’s impossible to ever have a perfect society. There are always going to be evils like racism in the world. However, would I characterize the American public as racist? Absolutely not!

That’s why I hate when people say “if Vick were white, people wouldn’t have a problem with what he did.” That statement assumes the worst in the American public. It’s also very close minded and can’t look past the fact that Vick is black to see him for who is he, a person who at one point in his life got enjoyment out of watching dogs fight to the death and torturing dogs to see how long they could last. That statement itself is racist because it refuses to look past Vick’s skin color to see him for the person he is, a scumbag.

Of course if Vick were white, people would have had a problem with what he did. Look at the reception of Ben Roethlisberger after what he allegedly did. You could even argue that Roethlisberger got a worse reception than Vick did. People freely hold up signs at Steelers road games that say “Rapelisberger”, but people are careful about what they say about Vick out of fear of being called a racist.

However, even though I don’t think race has anything to do with Vick’s arrest, sentencing, or his public reception after he was released, you can’t separate race and Vick completely because he is a black man playing a predominantly white position and playing it in a way that, as Toure himself says, is very “African-American.”

“I'm not saying that a black QB who stands in the pocket ain't playing black. I'm saying Vick's style is so badass, so artistic, so fluid, so flamboyant, so relentless -- so representative of black athletic style -- that if there were a stat for swagger points, Vick would be the No. 1 quarterback in the league by far.”

To this point, I agree with everything Toure has said. However, the very next line was where I thought the article was going to take a turn for the worst.

“But after his arrest for dogfighting, so many people asked: Would a white football player have gotten nearly two years in prison for what Vick did to dogs?”

Uh oh. Here we go. Toure is going to argue that Vick received worse treatment from the prosecutors because of his race. I think a lot of people reading this article thought that was what was coming next. After all, the title of this article is, “What if Vick were white?” However, I was pleasant surprised by the next line, Toure’s answer to this frequently asked question.

“This question makes me cringe. It is so facile, naive, shortsighted and flawed that it is meaningless.”

If someone had stopped reading this article after Toure asked if Vick would have received as long of a prison sentence had he been white, I could definitely understand how someone would hate this article and I think that might be to blame for the largely negative public reaction to this article. However, Toure scoffs at the notion that prosecutors would have given him a lighter sentence had he been white.

This article answers the question “what if Vick were white?” not by saying he would have received less jail time or he would have been received better by the American public, but rather by saying if Vick were born white, he likely would have had a better upbringing and likely would not have fallen into dog fighting. The key word there is likely. Nowhere does he assume that all whites are born rich and all blacks are born poor. He says likely and backs it up with statistics.

“72 percent percent of black children are born to unwed mothers compared with 29 percent of white children”

He then explores deeper Vick’s specific upbringing. His father was a cokehead, a dog fighter, and a negative role model and eventually he became estranged from the family, leaving Vick forced to find a new male role model and he did not find positive ones.

“Too many are left to define manhood on their own, so they gravitate toward the most charismatic and inspiring men in their world. Sometimes those men are gritty local sports coaches who teach them the value of hard work, but sometimes they're ghetto celebrities who are unsavory role models with bad habits.”

Again, I want to repeat that Toure does not say all whites have good upbringings and all blacks have poor upbringings. He says blacks are more LIKELY to have worse upbringings whites, and backs it up with statistics. He also, very importantly, does not say Vick’s upbringing excuses his actions, but rather serves as a root of his behavior.

“If Vick grew up with the paternal support that white kids are more likely to have (72 percent percent of black children are born to unwed mothers compared with 29 percent of white children), would he have been involved in dogfighting? I ask this not to look for an excuse but to explore the roots of his behavior.”

I total agree with this. Vick’s upbringing did have something to do with the mistakes he made. He may be a scumbag shithead, but you can’t argue that having scumbag shithead role models, particularly his father, growing up didn’t have something to do with it. It doesn’t excuse his behaviors, but it does provide a reason.

If you allow Vick’s upbringing to serve as an excuse for his actions, you are saying that human beings are powerless to their upbringing. We aren’t. We aren’t all dealt the same hand of cards when we’re born. Some are born richer, smarter, more attractive, in a freer country than others. Despite what some would have you believe, we are not all created equal. America is a land where all people have equal opportunity, but we are not created equal. It’s what you do with those cards that matters. Vick was dealt shitty cards, but he turned them into a life of fame and fortune, but also a life of crime and evil.

However, by saying Michael Vick’s upbringing had nothing to do with the way his life turned out, you are saying that all humans are created equal, that we are all given equal opportunities from birth, which is just stupid. Some people are just luckier than others from the start. Vick was born into a terrible situation and while he is still a scumbag, that at least provides us with insight as to why he is a scumbag, not to exonerate him from his actions, but simply to allow us to know the source of them, for knowledge’s sake.

That’s where I think the article goes wrong. This article is not perfect and I don’t know I necessarily like it as much as I am impressed with the article talking about Vick and race without completely pissing me off. Though Toure says his upbringing was not an excuse for his actions, he later goes on to say that Vick is “heroic,” not because of his race, but because of how he has risen above his upbringing. This is a statement I am completely in disagreement with.

I think people have been way too quick to forgive Vick, whether that has to do with his race or not, the fact is, he did something very, very bad and too large a percentage of America seems perfectly fine with that just because he’s served his time. Serving his time makes him a free man in the eyes of the law, but doesn’t mandate that the American public forgive him.

I have every right to hate him and call him a scumbag because I think what he did was the actions of a psychopath and that he hasn’t done anywhere near enough to prove to me that he isn’t still that same guy. I’m not saying he’s still fighting dogs, but how do we necessarily know he doesn’t desire to do so still and all that he learned from his time in jail is that dog fighting is bad because you get thrown in jail and lose everything and if that were to happen a 2nd time, he might not get it all back.

I want to share to some quotations from Vick in his recent GQ interview, arguably his most candid interview since he’s been released from jail, that start to show a side of Vick that he tries to keep hidden from the public view. This GQ interview is famous because in it Vick says Philly wasn’t his first choice, but a meeting with the commissioner changed his mind. I’ll get to that, but that’s not the main thing I got from his GQ interview. This is what I consider to be an eye opening snippet of the GQ article.

“Vick, well versed in his talking points on this matter, hesitates to make this a race issue. And yet: "Yeah, you got the family dog and the white picket fence, and you just think that's all there is. Some of us had to grow up in poverty-stricken urban neighborhoods, and we just had to adapt to our environment. I know that it's wrong. But people act like it's some crazy thing they never heard of. They don't know."

I ask Vick if he feels that white people simply don't understand that aspect of black culture. "I think that's accurate," he says. "I mean, I was just one of the ones who got exposed, and because of the position I was in, where I was in my life, it went mainstream. A lot of people got out of it after my situation, not because I went to prison but because it was sad for them to see me go through something that was so pointless, that could have been avoided."

What Vick is doing here is exactly what people thought Toure was doing, blaming his actions on race and upbringing, chalking everything up to the cards that were dealt and saying human beings are powerless to them. He also suggests that all whites are born into good situations and all blacks “grow up in poverty-stricken urban neighborhoods.” He also calls dog fighting part of black culture, which I think is a ridiculous and racist notion. Dog fighting is a part of thug culture. The only way dog fighting is a part of black culture is if you consider all blacks thugs. And Vick wasn’t done pissing me off.

“I ask him if he buys this argument, if he believes he was treated unfairly. Most people convicted of dogfighting don't spend a year and a half in prison. They aren't forced to declare bankruptcy. I ask him if he was sent to prison for too long.

"One day in prison is too long," he says.

Yes, but I mean for this particular crime.

He sighs. I'm not the first person who's tried to lead him down this road. "For a while, it was all 'Scold Mike Vick, scold Mike Vick, just talk bad about him, like he's not a person,' " he says. "It's almost as if everyone wanted to hate me. But what have I done to anybody? It was something that happened, and it was people trying to make some money."

Oh, fuck you Vick. Everyone wants to hate you? What have you done to anyone? Really? This is changed man Vick everyone is so eager to forgive. Really? This is as candid as Vick has been since his release and I think it shows that he is not a changed man. Vick, perhaps realizing what he had just said, tries to backtrack.

“He pauses and looks around. Time to step back from the edge. He's recovered so much ground that he's not about to lose it all again by taking things too far with some writer he just met. "But it's not fair. It's not fair to the animal. I know what to do now. I am strong as an individual, and I can handle anything."

He might have finished with that, but it was after he said that everyone just wants to hate him and what has he ever done to anyone? That is the true Vick. He might have only said it once, but that’s all that’s necessary to know that everything else, for the most part, including what he said afterwards, has been a lie. And the truth is, Vick isn’t sorry. He’s just sorry he got caught.

That is what was wrong with this article. The author turns Vick into a hero just because he’s out of jail, making millions, and winning football games. However, Toure’s article is in no way racist, but rather overly eager to forgive, which, despite what people will tell you, is a bad thing. Too much of anything is a bad thing and forgiveness is one of them.

You could also make the argument that Toure’s article is stupid because hypotheticals are stupid. If you change Vick’s skin color, you not only likely change what kind of family environment had he growing up, but his genes and likely his athletic abilities. I’m not going to sit here and pretend, for the most part, that black’s aren’t superior athletes to white’s just like I’m not going to sit here and pretend that blacks, typically, don’t have tougher upbringings. You take away Vick’s speed and he’s forced to just be a pocket passer and he’s not very good at that.

An interesting response to this article was “what if Tim Tebow was a velociraptor, would he still have an ugly delivery?” That question is just meant to demonstrate how stupid hypotheticals are, an argument I could buy. Along those same lines, Chris Chase, famous as the Yahoo sports writer whose article comments read at least a sizeable minority as “Fire Chris Chase,” actually published a decent article today.. Albeit, he didn’t actually write much, but he did compile a group of the best Vick photoshops including, what if Vick were an actual Eagle.

Again, this just furthers the argument that hypotheticals are stupid and unnecessary, thus making Toure’s article stupid and necessarily, and I could buy that argument. I also agree that Toure is way too quick to forgive by calling Vick a hero, but this article is in no way racist and for simply writing an article about Vick and race that is not racist, I have to give the man credit. Vick is still a scumbag.

Anyway, I want to end with the other, smaller take away from the Vick GQ article, that Vick didn’t want to go to Philadelphia, but changed his mind after meeting with the commissioner. Here’s the passage.

"I think I can say this now, because it's not going to hurt anybody's feelings, and it's the truth," Vick tells me a few weeks after the commencement ceremony. "I didn't want to come to Philadelphia. Being the third-team quarterback is nothing to smile about. Cincinnati and Buffalo were better options." Those two teams wanted him and would've allowed him to start, but after meeting with commissioner Roger Goodell and other reps from the NFL, Vick was convinced—and granted league approval—to sign with Philly. "And I commend and thank them, because they put me in the right situation."

Many people interpreted this as Roger Goddell telling Vick he couldn’t sign with Buffalo or Cincinnati because Goddell wanted Vick in Philadelphia, a bigger market, for financial reasons. If this were the case, Cincinnati and Buffalo fans would have major beefs. However, I don’t agree with that view that Goddell forced Vick to Philly for financial reasons. Vick was going to be the 3rd quarterback in Philadelphia. Anyone who argues that Goddell could have foreseen McNabb getting exiled to Washington, Kolb talking over the starting job and getting hurt, and then Vick taking the job and running with it (literally) to the point where he was the quarterback of a team that some are calling a Super Bowl favorite, is just stupid.

If Goddell was really only driven by money, wouldn’t he have driven him to Buffalo? He’s worth more to the league as a starter, regardless of the market. If Vick goes to Buffalo and revitalizes a franchise that hasn’t made the playoffs since 1999, while simultaneously revitalizing his own career, that’s huge money for the NFL even if it is Buffalo.

The NFL is huge wherever it is (except Jacksonville). Markets don’t matter that much. The NFL is the most financially successful professional sports league in America with one if it’s best players in Indianapolis, a small market, one of its premier franchises in Green Bay, a small market, and no team in LA, one of the biggest markets in the world. Not to mention the Patriots, who, contrary to popular believe, are not in Boston, but rather Foxboro, a tiny town 40-45 minutes away from Boston in the middle of rural Massachusetts. Vick could have been a financial success for the league in Buffalo and don’t you think that scenario where he goes to Buffalo and revitalizes his career and the franchise is more likely than what actually happened with Vick, becoming the starting quarterback for a so called “Dream Team” in just 2 years.

I don’t believe Goddell, for once, was driven by money. If he did in fact drive Vick to Philadelphia or force him into Philadelphia, I think it was because he felt it was the best location for Vick personally. Philadelphia wasn’t going to force him into the field and into the spotlight early. Philadelphia has a strong coaching staff, strong locker room veteran leadership, a strong front office, strong ownership, all things Buffalo and Cincinnati lack.

Considering that, Buffalo and Cincinnati fans have no reasonable beef. They suck. Maybe if they didn’t suck and did a better job of running their organizations, going there would have been the right choice for Vick. What’s wrong with a man choosing the best choice for himself, even if he did need Goddell to help him see the light? Isn’t that what America is founded on, a capitalistic society that functions best when everyone chooses what’s best for themselves?

All stats as of August 25th 2011

The Boston Red Sox came into the 2011 season with high hopes as the popular pick to win the World Series. They won 89 games and scored 818 runs, 2nd to the Yankees, in 2010 despite having Jacoby Ellsbury miss 144 games, Dustin Pedroia miss 87 games, and Kevin Youkilis miss 60. They added Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, two of the top offensive players in the league, in the offseason and many were projecting bounce back seasons from either Josh Beckett and/or John Lackey to compliment their two young breakout aces Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester.

4 games into the season and the 2011 Red Sox already would have had to make history to win the World Series. They lost their first 4 games, something no team had ever done and gone on to win the World Series. It didn’t get much better from there. They won a mere 2 of their first 12 games and didn’t get to .500 until May 15th when they were 20-20. Incidentally, that win that got them to .500 was a 7-5 win over the New York Yankees to complete a sweep of the Bombers in the Bronx. That sparked their season. Since May 13th, the Red Sox have gone 63-30 a ridiculous .677 winning percentage over 93 games.

Now they sit at 80-50, the 2nd best record in the majors behind Philadelphia, and the best record in the American League. They have a 1 game lead on the division over the Yankees, a team they have a 10-2 record against. They’ve secured a winning record over the Yanks for the first time since 2004 and there are still 6 games to go this season in that rivalry. Should the Red Sox slip out of first place, they’d still have a comfortable lead over the Angels in the Wild Card. The Angels currently trail the Yankees by 8 games. It appears very possible that this team could do something no one has ever done, win the World Series after an 0-4 start. Let’s take a look at how.

The strength of the Boston Red Sox is their offense. They’ve already scored 700 runs in 130 games, good for an average of 5.4 runs per game and good for 2nd most runs in the major leagues, 6 behind the New York Yankees. They are on pace to score 872 runs this season. Their lineup is paced by 3 legitimate MVP candidates atop the order in Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, and Adrian Gonzalez as well as a 1-5 that would make sabermetricians shit their pants.

The top 5 of Ellsbury, Pedroia, Gonzo, Kevin Youkilis, and David Ortiz combines for an average of .309, an on base percentage of .385, a slugging percentage of .519, and an OPS of .904. If their 1-5 hitters were one guy, he would rank 11th in the majors in OPS ahead of Albert Pujols at .898. Essentially, we have 5 Albert Pujols atop our lineup and 2 of them (Ellsbury and Pedroia) can steal bases.

Notice nowhere in that top 5 is Carl Crawford, their 142 million dollar offseason signing. Crawford has slumped mightily this season and by mightily I mean mightily. He slumped way longer than anyone else on the team. He wasn’t producing even when this team was winning. His slump was so long that some started to wonder if it was more than just a slump, like maybe he’s just not that good. However, in the month of August, he has 3 homeruns, 10 RBIs, 11 runs scored, 5 stolen bases and a slash line of .294/.326/.494. That’s about in line with his career numbers. If he can keep that up out of the 6 hole with the top 5 doing what they’re doing, the Red Sox are going to be very, very tough to stop offensively.

Rounding out their lineup 7-8-9, the hitters aren’t as impressive. However, they do have a good platoon at catcher in the bottom of their lineup. Catcher was a weakness coming into the season. Jason Varitek couldn’t hit. Jarrod Saltalamacchia didn’t have the support of the pitching staff. However, the two of them have morphed into a very impressive duo behind the plate with Varitek catching two pitchers (normally Beckett and whichever pitcher is starting on a day the Red Sox face a lefty), and Salty catching the other 3.

Both have embraced their roles, Varitek as the old gun, Saltalamacchia as the young kid with a lot to learn. Both have done a great job with the pitching staff, especially Varitek who has helped revitalize Josh Beckett’s career. The two combine to throw out 26% of stolen base attempts, good for 18th in the league. That might not look great, but remember Victor Martinez threw out roughly -5% of all runners in his time in Boston.

They even hit. The two combine for a slash line of .242/302/.450. That might not look great, but remember we’re living in the dead era of offensive catchers, especially with Buster Posey hurt and Joe Mauer struggling. Saltytek’s OPS of .752 would rank 7th in the majors if they were one player, right in between Russell Martin and AJ Pierzynski.

That platoon is the most successful platoon on Boston’s roster, with the other platoon being in right field. Rookie Josh Reddick starts against righties but Mike Aviles and Darnell McDonald split time in right against lefties. Both Aviles and McDonald also will play left and/or center from time to time against lefties as both Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford are left handed. Reddick looked like a gift from God when he was called up following JD Drew’s injury, but the rookie now looks more like a rookie, batting .236 since the All-Star break and .212 in the month of August.

Aviles, meanwhile, hits lefties at a .304 clip and can play anywhere on the field except pitcher and catcher, but he’s limited by a .205 batting average versus righties. Darnell McDonald is still on the roster despite a .198 batting average. His “specialty” is lefties, against whom he hits a whopping .223. Their struggles in right field since the break have some even excited for the pending return of JD Drew, something I never thought possible.

Rounding out the order is Marco Scutaro. Scutaro has been a butcher in the field this year, but his OPS of .713 would rank 7th in the American League if he had enough at bats to qualify. He sometimes gets the day off for Jed Lowrie, who can also play anywhere. Lowrie started the season off hot with an OPS of .962 for the first month of the season, but he spent a lot of time on the DL and really cooled off. His OPS now sits at .701.

Offensively, this team is set. They have the best top 5 in baseball, as well as legitimate MVP candidates in their top 3. #6 Carl Crawford is heating up and they get decent play from the bottom of their order, which changes with regularity. However, the starting rotation is the worry point for the team. Josh Beckett and Jon Lester have pitched extremely well, but John Lackey didn’t have the bounce back year he was supposed to, in fact, he got much, much worse, while Clay Buchholz has been out since mid-June with a back injury. Dice-K got hurt so long ago that I just momentarily forgot he existed.

Erik Bedard was our deadline acquisition from Seattle. He was supposed to become our #3 starter after news broke that Buchholz could be done for the season, but he’s had 1 quality start in 4 tries with an ERA of 4.09 and a win-loss record of 0-2. Tim Wakefield is always nice to have around, but we’ve seen way too much of him for Red Sox fans to be comfortable with our starting rotation situation. Andrew Miller has a nice 6-1 record, but only recently got to the point where he had more strikeouts than walks.

Beckett is set as our #1. Had he pitched as many innings as Verlander, Sabathia, and Weaver (32+ fewer than each of those 3), we’d be talking about him as a potential Cy Young candidate along with that trio. His ERA of 2.43 and WHIP of 0.97, along with an 11-5 record, certainly rival Verlander, Sabathia, and Weaver and I think he’s still the 4th best pitcher in the AL this year. If he’s your ace, you’re in good shape. I trust him to go toe to toe with Sabathia and Verlander in the postseason and maybe Weaver if the Angels make it that far. He’s got a great track record in the postseason to boot.

Detroit, New York, and the Angels might have the better aces, but we’ve owned CC (0-4 7.20 in 4 starts this season) and we have a better #2 than any of those 3 with the exception of the Angels, who might not make the playoffs. If Texas wins the West, we have the AL’s best #2 in the postseason. Jon Lester is 13-6 with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP.

Meanwhile, who is the #2 in New York has been a popular question since the season began and right now there are only two answers, AJ Burnett, but not the kind of #2 your thinking of, and Bartolo Colon…probably, assuming the stem cell therapy the 38-year-old Colon had on his elbow in the offseason continues to work its magic. In Detroit, I don’t even think they have anything close to an answer at #2. The starter with the 2nd lowest ERA on that team is Max Scherzer, who has an ERA of 4.21. The only way they win a series in the playoffs is either a miracle and/or Justin Verlander pitching 4 times in a 5 game series.

However, after the top 2, that’s where the questions begin for Boston. I tried talking myself into John Lackey and his freshly under 6 ERA as our #3 starter and this is what I came up with. Lackey was terrible to start the season, but he’s 6-1 with a 4.65 ERA since the break and if turn a blind eye to the 78 base runners in 50.1 innings he’s allowed since the break, that looks almost, sort of, maybe decent, right? He’s also proven in the postseason and for whatever reason the Red Sox offense always scores a kajillion runs when he’s on the mound. Despite his 5.98 ERA, he has a 12-9 record. That has to count for something right? Right? All in all, I’d be more comfortable if I was trying to talk myself into him as a #4. Buchholz might be back for the playoffs and in that case, he’d be our #3 and Lackey the likely #4.

Erik Bedard was the Red Sox big deadline acquisition. He could be our #3 if Buchholz can’t go, but I think it’s more likely that he becomes the #4 if Buchholz can’t go. Bedard, however, hasn’t been great since coming over from Seattle and he’s so injury prone that I think it might be best off if we put him into a glass case until October just in case. Wakefield is the other option, but I think he’s a real long shot with a 6-5 record with a 5.04 ERA. Andrew Miller, 39 strikeouts to 32 walks, is an even longer shot.

The bullpen, a major problem in 2010, is a major strength this season. Gone are the days when I would frequently send friends “I hate our bullpen” texts after it had blown up. After blowing a major league leading 8 saves in 2010, Papelbon has blown just 1 save this season in 30 tries this season. The bridge to Papelbon has also been very strong. Both Alfredo Aceves and Daniel Bard have been very close to sure things with 2.96 and 2.10 ERAs respectively. They also have 3 other guys you can go to war with in Dan Wheeler, Franklin Morales, and Matt Albers. They have ERAs of 3.89, 3.54, and 3.72 respectively.

To this point, I think the Red Sox are the favorites in the AL. They’re on a serious sustained groove right now going 63-30 in their last 93. They are 10-2 against the Yankees, 5-1 against Detroit, and 6-2 against the Angels. They may be 3-4 against the Rangers, but they are just coming off of taking 3 of 4 from them. They were swept earlier this season by the Rangers, but that was their first series of the season when they were a completely different team in terms of their level of play. I’d feel more comfortable if Buchholz were to come back by the playoffs, but they’re my pick out of the AL.

As for the World Series, I think the Red Sox would have to be considered underdogs to the Phillies. The Phillies are 83-45 right now. They have the league’s best pitching staff and have gotten better offensively over the course of the season with Chase Utley back and Hunter Pence coming in. They took 2 of 3 from the Red Sox earlier this season and will have home field advantage in the World Series. However, there’s a lot that can happen. The Phillies aren’t necessarily a lock to come out of the NL and I think the Red Sox match up very well with every team other than the Phillies. As a Red Sox fan, the only team right now I legitimately would fear facing is the Phillies.

I’ll get to more advanced team breakdowns in a bit, after the majority of the dust has settled on free agency, but the Eagles cornerback position is becoming so intriguing it’s almost like a team of its own, so I’m going to do a quick statistical breakdown of that. The Eagles cornerbacks, as they currently stand, are Nnamdi Asomugha, Asante Samuel, and Dominique Rodgers Cromartie. It looked fairly certain that Samuel would get traded after they signing Asomugha, but now it’s looking like the Eagles will have to be blown away by an offer for Samuel and that they want to hold onto all three.

You can make an argument that Asante Samuel was the best cornerback in the league last year in terms of pure coverage ability (he’s a liability against the run, but we’re focusing on his coverage abilities right now). No one allowed a lower quarterback rating when thrown on last year (among cornerback who played at least half of their teams’ snaps). Quarterbacks who threw on him had a QB rating of 31.7. For comparison, if you drop back 1000 times and throw the ball out of bounds for an incompletion each time, your quarterback rating is 39.6.

He was targeted 41 times and allowed only 19 catches for 141 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 7 picks. Basically opposing quarterbacks had this line against him last year 19-41 for 141 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 7 picks. Yikes! Nnamdi Asomugha was 7th in QB rating allowed with 66.0 last year. However, he was targeted so infrequently that I don’t know how much that number tells you.

Nnamdi Asomugha is known as that one player who is so good you don’t notice him. He is frequently among the least thrown on cornerbacks in the league because quarterbacks are scared of him. Next year, if quarterbacks want to be scared of him, they’ll have to instead pick on Asante Samuel, which, if last year was any indication, might not be the best idea.

Asomugha ranked 1st in fewest throws against among qualified cornerbacks (50% of their teams snaps). Asomugha played 786 snaps last year. And he was thrown against 29 times. Basically, he was thrown against 3.6% of the times he was on the field. No one else even came close to that. He had a whopping 12 fewer throws against than the player who was 2nd in that category. That player, you guessed it, Asante Samuel.

Now the 3rd member is Dominique Rodgers Cromartie. Cromartie is a former 1st round pick in 2008 of the Arizona Cardinals. He made the Pro Bowl in 2009, when he ranked 16th in the league in QB rating allowed despite being thrown against a whopping 120 times. Over those 120 throws, he allowed 61 to be completed for 781 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 6 picks. He also ranked 2nd in pass deflections that season.

However, Cromartie took a step back in 2010 and his quarterback rating allowed was 23rd HIGHEST in the league at 92.5. Quarterbacks throwing against him were 56-90 for 814 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Why the worse production? Well, Arizona’s pass rush might have had something to do with that. In 2009, they managed 43 sacks. In 2010, just 33. Also, Arizona was a significantly worse team in 2010 so it’s possible Cromartie just checked out more on a losing team.

Neither of those things should be issues in Philadelphia. Philadelphia is sure to at least make the playoffs and they put up 39 sacks in 2010, a number that should be higher in 2011 with the addition of Jason Babin. Basically, DRC is a 25 year old cornerback fully capable of playing the nickel cornerback role with the upside to be among the best cornerbacks in the league. I don’t know of too many teams with nickels like that.

Yesterday, 13-year NFL veteran Randy Moss retired at the age of 34. Moss made 7 Pro Bowls in his career, ranks among the top 10 in every major receiving statistic, and is a future Hall of Famer, possibly on the first ballot. The move was described as a surprise by major media networks like ESPN, but really, there wasn’t anything surprising about it.

Despite the fact that last year Moss caught 28 passes for 393 yards and 5 touchdowns, career lows across the board, and was let go by 2 two teams and the fact that he’s 34 years old and finished last year as a glorified blocking receiver for the Tennessee Titans, Moss seemed to think he could have his agent tell everyone he was in “freakish shape” and contenders would start lining up to offer him multiyear deals as if he was coming off of his 23 touchdown season (a single season record by the way).

When the Jets and Patriots refused to give him anything longer than a year, and no other contenders even gave him a glance, he retired, a predictable move for the man who once famously declared “I play when I want to play.” He didn’t want to play for a team that was probably going 6-10 or sign a one year deal to be someone’s 3rd receiver, so he retired.

He was Randy freaking Moss and wasn’t going to take being disrespected in the free agency market. Why else would he have his agent so boldly declare that he was in “freakish shape” and then retire 2 weeks later? He was delusional. Don’t buy it? Remember this is the guy who arrived in New England after a terrible year in Oakland and said famously “I don’t need to revitalize nothing.”

Many have also been debating whether or not he’s for real on this retirement thing or whether he could pull a Brett Favre at some point during the season (or a Tiki Barber at some point in approximately 2016). He’s only 34 and if he really did get himself back into shape after a disappointing year last year, he can still contribute somewhere. He could play if he wanted to play.

Given that I think his retirement was a response to being disrespected by the market, I say it’s possible he comes back. I don’t think he wanted to retire, but he was just too proud to take a 1 year deal to be the Jets’ 3rd receiver or be a situation receiver for the Patriots or play for the previously 2-14 Carolina Panthers. However, for him to come back, someone’s going to have to give him what he wants, namely a multiyear deal from a contender. I say the likelihood of that is very low, but injuries happen.

Also, you look at a team like the Philadelphia Eagles. They have 3 good receivers in DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Jason Avant, but all 3 are under 6 feet tall. Moss is 6-4. They need a big receiver; that’s why they were linked to Plaxico Burress. The Eagles are definitely contenders right now and they’re no strangers to making big splashes and giving out 2nd chances. It’s not likely, but maybe they offer him a 2 year deal with not a whole lot guaranteed so they can cut him after a year if they feel like it.

As for Moss’ legacy, it’s simple. He ranked in the top 10 in every major receiving statistic. He is a top 10 receiver all time, but he could have been so much more. This guy had 69 catches for 1313 yards and 17 touchdowns as a ROOKIE. In 2007, he had 98 catches for 1493 yards and 23 touchdowns as a record setting receiver on a record setting Patriots team. In fact, he might have said it best when he said “if I can’t get to it, nobody can get to it.”

In fact, if you remove the 3 seasons he basically checked out (2004 in Minnesota before they traded him, 2006 in Oakland before they traded him, and all of last year), Moss caught 835 passes for 13165 yards and 128 touchdowns over 10 seasons, good for averages of 84 catches for 1317 yards and 13 touchdowns in those seasons. Say he gives it his all in those 3 seasons and puts up a conservative estimate of 90% of those averages in those seasons. Then say he plays 3 more seasons after age 34 at 75% of those averages.

That gives him 3 more seasons of 76 catches for 1185 yards and 12 touchdowns and another 3 more seasons of 63 catches for 988 yards and 10 touchdowns. Add it all together and he has career numbers of 1252 catches for 19684 yards and 194 touchdowns. He still would have been behind Rice, but that would have taken him to age 37. Rice played until he was 42. Really all Rice would have had over him would be longevity. If Moss gave all his at all times and played until he was 42. The only thing Rice has over him is hustle and longevity. Talent wise, they're on the same level.

This time it counts

The fact that an exhibition game decides home field advantage in the playoffs is ridiculous. The last 8 World Series game 7s have been won by the home team. No World Series’ have gone 7 games since this rule was instated in 2003, but that’s doesn’t mean that one can’t as soon as this year. There are much better things baseball can use to decide the location of game 7, including individual team record or which league had the best interleague record. An exhibition game where a good amount of players aren’t even on contending teams should never be allowed to potentially decide the outcome of the World Series. Making this rule even worse is that fact that…

One player from each team must be included

As of today, 11 teams (Toronto, Baltimore, Kansas City, Oakland, NY Mets, Washington, Florida, Chicago Cubs, Houston, LA Dodgers, and San Diego) are at least 10 games out of a playoff spot. If one player from each team must be included, that is guaranteeing that 11 of the 68 (16%) All-Star participants are nowhere near the playoffs and probably couldn’t care less which team gets home field. And even if the All-Star game stopped deciding home field advantage, this would still be a stupid rule. All-Stars should be the best players in each league regardless of team. If your team sucks and has no players worthy of being called All-Stars, then you shouldn’t get any. It cheapens what it means to be an All-Star. Also cheapening what it means to be an All-Star is the fact that…

Rosters consist of 34 players

What other sport significantly increases the size of their roster for an All-Star game. There is no need for 34 man rosters. Bring them back to traditional 25 man rosters, 12 man pitching staffs, 12 hitters, and one pitcher/hitter decided by the fan’s “last vote.” I see the need for large pitching staffs (currently 14). Pitchers arms are fragile and asking any one pitcher to go more than 2 innings in an exhibition game is ridiculous. However, why do we need so many hitters? Hitters can play 9 innings in the field and be ready to go for their team’s first game in 2-3 days. The game uses a DH no matter what stadium it’s played in. Why do we need so many pinch hitters? Another problem with the All-Star game is that...

Guys can skip

How spoiled do you have to be to skip this? You've been named one of the greatest players in the league, and you're just like "nah." I understand injuries, but even if you're injured, you should at least have to show up. This game is for the fans. The fans want to see you. If it wasn't for the fans, you wouldn't be making millions of dollars. You should show up. If you're injured, you don't have to play and you can be replaced on the roster, but you at least have to show up. This would force the guys who are healthy, but don't want to show up to at least show up and then at that point they might as well actually play in the game. That would drastically cut down on the players skipping despie being healthy. Then we'd need fewer replacements and there would be fewer All-Stars and being an All-Star wouldn't be cheapened. Further cheapening what it means to be an All-Star is the fact that…

If you pitched Sunday, you can’t pitch in the game

How about we let the players (with the help of their individual teams) decide this one. Pitchers aren’t going to go more than an inning or two so even if you pitched 6-7 innings two days ago, pitchers should be ok throwing an inning or two in an All-Star game. Pitchers typically have a bullpen session on this day anyway. At least let them decide whether or not they want to play. Currently, between 34 man rosters, and the 8 or so replacements we need for pitchers who pitch Sunday plus players who skip the All-Star game for various reasons, we have about 42 players per league being named All-Stars. 30 teams, 25 man rosters, that means there’s about 750 players in the major leagues. You’re telling me 84 of them (11.2%) should be All-Stars. That really cheapens what “All-Star” means. Cut rosters to 25, you’ll probably need about 4 replacements for guys who skip for various reasons (including that they pitched Sunday), that’s 58 all-stars, about 7.7% of the league. That sounds about right. Of course, cutting rosters to 25 might lead to some complications in extra innings which is why we could no longer allow…

Games that go into extra innings

It’s in exhibition game anyway. It doesn’t decide home field any more. Why not make it fun and decide ties like soccer and hockey, only instead of a sudden death shoot out, it’s a homerun derby. People love the homerun derby. Why not have ties in an all-star game decided by that. Each team nominates one player (regardless of whether or not he’s been removed from the game) to hit and one person (either another player, or a coach, or someone) to throw him batting practice. Each team gets 10 balls, whoever hits the most of the ten out wins (balls not swung at don’t count). If further tiebreakers are needed, another player must step up and compete only this team with 5 balls. There won’t be any major added risk of injury or messing up your swing with something like this. Guys do things like this all the time in batting practice before games. No one is taking more than 10 swings, whereas in the homerun derby, the winner often takes 55-65 swings.