NFL Mock Drafts, Fantasy Football, NFL Picks, NFL Power Rankings, and more

 

I have been hearing from a lot of places that the Rams should take Ndamukong Suh, the most dominant defensive tackle prospect this decade, #1 over Jimmy Clausen or Sam Bradford. Those people are saying that there will be more Jimmy Clausens and Sam Bradfords in the 2^nd and 3^rd rounds, but there won’t be any more Ndamukong Suhs. While its safe to say there won’t be any more Ndamukong Suhs in the 2^nd or 3^rd round, its also pretty safe to say there won’t be any more Clausens or Bradfords either. Don’t believe me, let’s take a look at history.

Giovanni Carmazzi- San Francisco 49ers

Pick 65 2000 (3^rd round)

0 snaps, out of league in 2 years

Chris Redman- Baltimore Ravens

Pick 75 2000 (3^rd round)

264-466 (56.7) 2971 yards (6.4) 21 TD 13 INT

Drew Brees- San Diego Chargers

Pick 32 2001 (2^nd round)

2697-4164 (64.8) 30646 yards (7.4) 202 TD 110 INT

PRO BOWL

SUPER BOWL

Quincy Carter- Dallas Cowboys

Pick 52 2001 (2^nd round)

542-960 (56.5) 6337 yards (6.6) 32 TD 37 INT

Marques Tuiasosopo- Oakland Raiders

Pick 59 2001 (2^nd round)

49-90 (54.4) 554 yards (6.2) 2 TD 7 INT

Josh McCown- Arizona Cardinals

Pick 81 2002 (3^rd round)

610-1058 (57.7) 6584 yards (6.2) 35 TD 40 INT

Dave Ragone- Houston Texans

Pick 88 2003 (3^rd round)

20-40 (50.0) 135 yards (3.4) 0 TD 1 INT

Chris Simms- Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pick 97 2003 (3^rd round)

297-511 (58.1) 3117 yards (6.1) 12 TD 18 INT

Matt Schaub- Atlanta Falcons

Pick 90 2004 (3^rd round)

923-1413 (65.3) 11087 yards (7.9) 59 TD 40 INT

PRO BOWL

Charlie Frye- Cleveland Browns

Pick 67 2005 (3^rd round)

419-677 (61.9) 4154 yards (6.1) 17 TD 29 INT

Andrew Walter- Oakland Raiders

Pick 69 2005 (3^rd round)

174-333 (52.3) 1919 yards (5.8) 3 TD 16 INT

David Greene- Seattle Seahawks

Pick 85 2005 (3^rd round)

0 snaps, out of league in 2 years

Kellen Clemens- New York Jets

Pick 49 2006 (2^nd round)

146-282 (51.8) 1680 yards (6.0) 5 TD 11 INT

Tarvaris Jackson- Minnesota

Pick 64 2006 (2^nd round)

320-545 (58.7) 3643 yards (6.7) 21 TD 18 INT

Charlie Whitehurst- San Diego

Pick 81 2006 (3^rd round)

0 career throws

Brodie Croyle- Kansas City

Pick 85 2006 (3^rd round)

173-300 (57.7) 1631 yards (5.4) 8 TD 8 INT

I am not using anyone from 2007-2009 drafts here because its too soon to tell with most of them what kind of quarterback they will be in this league. For the record, those quarterbacks are Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton, Trent Edwards, Brian Brohm, Chad Henne, Kevin O’Connell, and Pat White. Of those 8 signal callers, only one is, at the moment, expected to be a week 1 starter next season, Chad Henne.

Of the 16 quarterbacks drafted in the 2^nd or 3^rd round between 2000-2006, only 2 have made Pro Bowls. Only 1 has won a Super Bowl, Drew Brees and he was actually drafted in the top 32 picks, just not in the first round because the league just had 31 teams at that time. Only 3 have thrown more than 1000 passes in the NFL. Only 4 have even thrown more touchdowns than interceptions in their career. Only 3 have a career completion percentage of 60% or higher.

So the verdict looks pretty clear, waiting until the 2^nd round to draft your franchise signal caller, not a smart move. First round quarterbacks don’t always pan out all the time either, but they are a lot more likely to pan out than a 2^nd or 3^rd round pick. So if a team who needs a quarterback has an opportunity to draft Jimmy Clausen, Sam Bradford, or even Tim Tebow in the first, they would be much better off than if they waited until the 2^nd or 3^rd to take Tony Pike, Colt McCoy, Jevan Snead, Dan LeFevour.

Also, going off on a previous tangent, the only 2 quarterbacks to make the Pro Bowl after being drafted in rounds 2 or 3 this decade also didn’t play much their first year further proving my belief that quarterbacks should have at least 1 year where they do nothing except sitting, watching, and being a backup. Continuing on that tangent, I truly believe the way to go with franchise quarterbacks is to draft one in the first round and then sit them for a year. Teams with the luxury to sit a quarterback for a year, like the Washington Redskins (Jason Campbell) and the Seattle Seahawks (Matt Hasselbeck), should definitely jump at the opportunity to take, if not Tebow, then at least Bradford or Clausen with their first round pick.

Though the Rams will not be able to sit Clausen for a year, unless they trade for/sign a veteran quarterback (a good idea), they should still take Clausen #1. I think he could pan out even without a rookie redshirt year because he has experience in a pro style offense and because the Rams have a decent offensive line. Passing on him for a guy like Suh would be a huge mistake because they most likely aren’t going to be able to get a franchise quarterback in the 2^nd round and because they might not have a chance to take Jake Locker or Ryan Mallett in the 1^st next year because Suh is good enough that he could help this team to 5-6 wins and the 8^th-12^th which likely isn’t going to be enough to get a franchise quarterback. This is why, when you get the opportunity to take a franchise quarterback when you need one, or feel you are about to need one, you should. Most teams actually do follow this policy.

More on the rookie redshirt year 

Rookie Redshirt

Rookie Redshirt Part II